proportionality and precaution. although the us vetoed the vote... the us secretary of state antony blinken says there is a gap between israel's promise to protect civilians and its actions on the ground. more than 17,000 palestinians have now been killed according to the hamas—run health ministry. and while israel claims that some 5,000 of that number are hamas fighters, there are huge numbers of women and children among the dead. frank lowenstein, who was formerly president obama's special envoy for middle east peace, says the numbers are concerning. he told me why the united states is not going to vote for a cease—fire. because in the minds of the united states and the biden administration, there's two very different questions here. the first is, "should there be a cease—fire that effectively allows "hamas to stay in place?" and we've been very clear that we oppose that. at the same time, we really have been pushing the israelis as hard as we can to get them to allow more humanitarian assistance in and to do more to prevent civilian casualties, and i think that is where the united states is going to be under increasing pressure — domestically, politically at home and internationally — to start putting tougher measures in place to ensure that israel actually does comply let's pick this up at our panel. our panel tonight is former adviser to the treasury leon emirali, now a pr consultant, and the democratic and legal analyst kelly hyman. thank you for your patience. kelly, the point frank leven was making there, the political pressure now building onjoe biden, what will this vote mean domestically for him? i think it is important to remember, first of all, that we are one nation, we are altogether and that united states supports israel, but we have to think about this globally and the effects of what is going to happen in the future, and hopefully there can be some type of resolution thatis there can be some type of resolution that is going to help the people of israel and be beneficial to everyone. israel and be beneficial to everyone-— israel and be beneficial to eve one. , ., , everyone. does it in any way, the oint everyone. does it in any way, the point robert _ everyone. does it in any way, the point robert wood _ everyone. does it in any way, the point robert wood was _ everyone. does it in any way, the point robert wood was making i everyone. does it in any way, the point robert wood was making in his address to the counciljust now is that all the us recommendations were ignored, that it was rushed, there is not the appropriate consultation — is that believe the answer? or do you think from the get go here the united states wanted to give israel more time? i united states wanted to give israel more time?— united states wanted to give israel more time? ~' ,, ., , more time? i think the united states wanted to give _ more time? i think the united states wanted to give israel— more time? i think the united states wanted to give israel more _ more time? i think the united states wanted to give israel more time, - more time? i think the united states wanted to give israel more time, i i wanted to give israel more time, i definitely think that is important, and hopefully there can be some type of resolution to do this. it is horrific, what happened to the people of israel and to lose their loved ones in the situation they did, but everyone wants peace, everyone wants some type of resolution, and so hopefully that will be forthcoming for all of us. leon, we heard from the united arab emirates, who had sponsored this resolution and brought this resolution and brought this resolution before the council, and he questioned what the purpose of the united nations security council is. there will be a lot of people tonight looking at what is happening in gaza and wondering the same component to there? i in gaza and wondering the same component to there?— in gaza and wondering the same component to there? i think there will be. ithink— component to there? i think there will be. i think this _ component to there? i think there will be. i think this is _ component to there? i think there will be. i think this is a _ will be. i think this is a disappointing evening for a lot of people _ disappointing evening for a lot of people who want to see peace in this conflict _ people who want to see peace in this conflict. when we look about the scenes _ conflict. when we look about the scenes around the united nations table. _ scenes around the united nations table. the — scenes around the united nations table, the diplomacy going on is far removed _ table, the diplomacy going on is far removed from the situation on the ground _ removed from the situation on the ground in— removed from the situation on the ground in gaza, also in israel, where — ground in gaza, also in israel, where the _ ground in gaza, also in israel, where the fighting is taking place, and i_ where the fighting is taking place, and i think— where the fighting is taking place, and i think those individuals, they will he _ and i think those individuals, they will be absolutely distraught, i imagine. — will be absolutely distraught, i imagine, that the sign of a cease—fire, the chances of a cease-fire _ cease—fire, the chances of a cease—fire are diminished, and i'm disappointed, i have to say, in the us and _ disappointed, i have to say, in the us and uk— disappointed, i have to say, in the us and uk for not taking this as an opportunity to signal their dedication towards finding a resolution.— dedication towards finding a resolution. ~ ., ., .~ ., resolution. what do you make about the eur0pean _ resolution. what do you make about the european position? _ resolution. what do you make about the european position? i— resolution. what do you make about the european position? i am - resolution. what do you make about the european position? i amjust - the european position? i am just looking at the comments from the french representative, who says we do not see any contradiction in the fight against terrorism and the protection of civilians in strict respect for international humanitarian law, the expressed grave concern about what is going on, and then they added, unfortunately once again this council has failed with a lack of unity and by refusing to commit to negotiations. why do you think the uk did not vote against the resolution and abstained? i think the uk is in _ resolution and abstained? i think the uk is in a _ resolution and abstained? i think the uk is in a very _ resolution and abstained? i think the uk is in a very difficult - the uk is in a very difficult situation, because obviously the alliance — situation, because obviously the alliance with the united states is incredibly important from a military. _ incredibly important from a military, diplomacy point of view, but also _ military, diplomacy point of view, but also the relationship with our european — but also the relationship with our european allies is incredibly important, so the uk in no way was stuck— important, so the uk in no way was stuck in _ important, so the uk in no way was stuck in between a rock at a hard place. _ stuck in between a rock at a hard place. and — stuck in between a rock at a hard place. and i_ stuck in between a rock at a hard place, and i think by abstaining, they— place, and i think by abstaining, they essentially took an easy way out -- _ they essentially took an easy way out -- in — they essentially took an easy way out -- in a — they essentially took an easy way out —— in a way was stuck between. they— out —— in a way was stuck between. they say— out —— in a way was stuck between. they say they — out —— in a way was stuck between. they say they wish there was more of a considered — they say they wish there was more of a considered approach to the negotiation while recognising there are a lot _ negotiation while recognising there are a lot of people in europe, as well— are a lot of people in europe, as well as— are a lot of people in europe, as well as in— are a lot of people in europe, as well as in the uk, are a lot of people in europe, as wellas in the uk, who are a lot of people in europe, as well as in the uk, who do want to see a— well as in the uk, who do want to see a cease—fire implemented, and i think— see a cease—fire implemented, and i think the _ see a cease—fire implemented, and i think the uk, to take that position has ultimately shown they are trying to now _ has ultimately shown they are trying to now straddle the best of both worlds _ to now straddle the best of both worlds and not alienate any allies on either— worlds and not alienate any allies on either side of where they are at the moment. on either side of where they are at the moment-— the moment. plenty of live reaction on the live page _ the moment. plenty of live reaction on the live page on _ the moment. plenty of live reaction on the live page on the _ the moment. plenty of live reaction on the live page on the bbc - the moment. plenty of live reaction| on the live page on the bbc website if you want to follow some of the comments from the un security council, but let's move on. before that vote, i was telling you about russia and ukraine. russia has fired cruise missiles at ukraine for the first in over two months. the air raid in kyiv lasted almost two hours though thankfully all the missiles heading towards the ukrainian capital were destroyed by western supplied air defences. the central parts of the country weren't so lucky. one person was killed and four others were injured in the city of pavlohrad. six s—300s, the long range surface to air missiles were fired at the eastern kharkiv region, with residential buildings destroyed, one dead, several others injured. coincidence? not likely. the russians are probably taking their cue from what is going on in the united states. ukraine desperately needs support. congress still deadlocked on that crucialfunding bill, the republicans refusing to budge unless and untiljoe biden agrees to immigration reform. the kremlin is coming again, determined to impress on western capitals that it has the stamina and the means to continue this fight. joining me now is lieutenant colonel alexander vindman, former director of european affars for the united states national security council. thank you for coming on the programme and thank you for your patience, waiting for us while we got through everything at the security council tonight. your reaction to what has happened today in ukraine, vis—a—vis what is happening in the united states? unfortunately, it is expected that russia was going to attempt to punish the ukrainian capital, target ukrainian infrastructure, degrade the energy infrastructure and make it a particularly cold and harsh winter. as you pointed out, it is not coincidental that the russians are looking to punctuate the fact that the us house of representatives, senate, republicans in general are obstructing critical aid to ukraine by signalling that there will be continued russian aggression. i think that this has been part of russia's plan all along, to wait and allow natural fault lines to emerge and then exploit those, and it is pretty shocking that in the same breath that you see these cruise missile strikes on ukraine, ucf leads and praise for their republican obstruction of ukraine aid —— ucd. as you point out it is not coincidental. we'll see more of this unfold. it is critical, it is essential the us finally provides aid to ukraine, otherwise even the status quo, kind of limited gains, limiting the gains of the russians, successful defence of the ukrainians, that is likely to unravel. ~ �* . ukrainians, that is likely to unravel. ~ �*, , , unravel. mr putin's spokes person said they would _ not —— the idea they would have peace talks with kyiv next year is unrealistic. what are your thoughts on that? i unrealistic. what are your thoughts on that? . ., , ., on that? i am doubtful, i engage with the us _ on that? i am doubtful, i engage with the us government, - on that? i am doubtful, i engage with the us government, i - on that? i am doubtful, i engage with the us government, ijust i on that? i am doubtful, i engage l with the us government, ijust had a briefing with two senior state department officials yesterday for some i'm very doubtful there are any real pushes towards ukraine negotiating on any... the reason for thatis negotiating on any... the reason for that is simple. there is no indication the russians are ready to go she ate, and having the ukrainians engage in negotiations would be a fruitless endeavour. i think their expectation i was clear and hardened, that war is going to continue through 2024, one of the milestones will be the presidential election. ifjoe biden retains the white house, which united is likely, then there will be a little bit more of a seriousness from the russian side to negotiate on the prospects of former years of war. however, if trump were to win the white house, that would be an opportunity that the russians would seize to go for their maximalist objectives, but i don't think there's a real prospect of any meaningful peace negotiations between now and then. if anything it would be closer to patchell that the russians will be looking for from the ukrainians. == russians will be looking for from the ukrainians.— the ukrainians. -- capitulations. sta with the ukrainians. -- capitulations. stay with us- _ the ukrainians. -- capitulations. stay with us. i _ the ukrainians. -- capitulations. stay with us. i want _ the ukrainians. -- capitulations. stay with us. i want you - the ukrainians. -- capitulations. stay with us. i want you to - the ukrainians. -- capitulations. - stay with us. i want you to comment on this other big news today from moscow. vladimir putin announced today he will be running again in russia's presidential elections next year, as had been widely expected. but the announcement came about in a rather roundabout way, via a question posed by a senior officer at a ceremony honouring heroes of the fatherland. the president's press secretary dmitry peskov insisted it was spontaneous. i will let you decide. translation: | on behalf- of all our people, all of donbas, ourjoined lands, would like to ask you to take part in these elections. translation: thank you very much. i will not hide the fact that at different times, i had different thoughts. now, you are right, this is the time. the decision needs to be made. i will run for the post of president of the russian federation. the last time, or the first time that vladimir putin was elected from bill clinton was still in power. this term, and you would imagine he will win it, would take him all the way to 2036. he would almost be the longest serving russian leader, after stalin. but i suppose that depends on whether or not he wins this war? . depends on whether or not he wins this war? , ., ., ,, ., this war? this term would take to 2030... this war? this term would take to 2030- -- that _ this war? this term would take to 2030. .. that he _ this war? this term would take to 2030. .. that he would _ this war? this term would take to 2030... that he would run again. this war? this term would take to l 2030... that he would run again in a... he 2030... that he would run again in a--- he would _ 2030... that he would run again in a... he would run _ 2030... that he would run again in a... he would run again _ 2030... that he would run again in a... he would run again in - 2030... that he would run again in a... he would run again in another| a... he would run again in another surrise a... he would run again in another surprise bit _ a... he would run again in another surprise bit after _ a... he would run again in another surprise bit after lots _ a... he would run again in another surprise bit after lots of _ surprise bit after lots of deliberation to 2036. we can go ahead and predict the fact he was stay until 2036 stop those he ahead and predict the fact he was stay until 2036 stop those be his last two terms, but of course everything is choreographed and staged. there is no surprise that he was going to run for another election. i think for me, what i think about the election in march is that i think it might be a turning point actually in the russian ukraine war, that with another six years, basically secured, probably some machinations, high turnout, high popular results for putin, we could see another mass mobilisation, but of course is no surprise that is running for office. the applications of that might be for the next six years of russia, ukraine relations and russian relations with the west, those are probably the more significant factors with probably a fair number of surprises emerging over that period of time. does that chan . e over that period of time. does that change the — over that period of time. does that change the politics _ over that period of time. does that change the politics in _ over that period of time. does that change the politics in washington, | change the politics in washington, people knowing that he is going to be there for the duration? i people knowing that he is going to be there for the duration?- be there for the duration? i think it is auoin be there for the duration? i think it is going to _ be there for the duration? i think it is going to depend _ be there for the duration? i think it is going to depend on who - be there for the duration? i think it is going to depend on who is i it is going to depend on who is the next president of the united states when the _ next president of the united states when the election comes up. i think that is— when the election comes up. i think that is going to be key on how it is going _ that is going to be key on how it is going to _ that is going to be key on how it is going to affect, whether biden is going _ going to affect, whether biden is going to — going to affect, whether biden is going to win a reelection or if trump. — going to win a reelection or if trump, who was most likely going to be trump, who was most likely going to he the _ trump, who was most likely going to be the nominee, is going to win, because — be the nominee, is going to win, because that is definitely could have _ because that is definitely could have an — because that is definitely could have an effect on their relationship with russia, but there is no surprise _ with russia, but there is no surprise here that he was going to run, surprise here that he was going to run. and _ surprise here that he was going to run. and i— surprise here that he was going to run, and i agree with the other speaker. — run, and i agree with the other speaker, the fact that it looks as though— speaker, the fact that it looks as though it — speaker, the fact that it looks as though it was preplanned, that he was going — though it was preplanned, that he was going to run and announce it this wav — was going to run and announce it this wa . ., , , ., , this way. leon, this news that he is auoin to this way. leon, this news that he is going to run — this way. leon, this news that he is going to run again, _ this way. leon, this news that he is going to run again, sort _ this way. leon, this news that he is going to run again, sort of- going to run again, sort of coinciding with some whirring news thatis coinciding with some whirring news that is come out of russia today that is come out of russia today that navalny, alexei navalny, has gone missing —— worrying news. he was supposed to appear in court — that did not happen. he has not been seen by his lawyer for three days. they are talking about a blackout at the maxims in creepers where he is, but we already know he has been quite ill before this, and now has dropped off the face of theirs