the chancellor says we've turned a corner, but is the uk now in a cul—de—sac? i now call the chancellor to make the autumn statement, jeremy hunt. jeremy hunt trumpets a two percentage point cut in national insurance, and an almost 2% rise in the living wage, but the uk tax burden is still the heaviest since world war ii, and growth forecasts are down, so will the cost of living crisis still be a cost of living crisis next year and the year after? nick's been out gauging reaction injeremy hunt's patch. ijust i just worry that this is a government that is running out of good ideas. government that is running out of good ideas-_ government that is running out of aood ideas. , ., ., , , good ideas. they are doing the best the can good ideas. they are doing the best they can under _ good ideas. they are doing the best they can under the _ good ideas. they are doing the best they can under the circumstances. l they can under the circumstances. they— they can under the circumstances. they are _ they can under the circumstances. they are definitely the worst bunch i have _ they are definitely the worst bunch i have ever — they are definitely the worst bunch i have ever seen _ they are definitely the worst bunch i have ever seen in _ they are definitely the worst bunch i have ever seen in my— they are definitely the worst bunch i have ever seen in my time - they are definitely the worst bunch i have ever seen in my time as - they are definitely the worst bunch i have ever seen in my time as a i i have ever seen in my time as a voter~ _ we'll be speaking to the economic secretary to the treasury and to the shadow business secretary. and later in the programme, the all important analysis on the politics of this, we'll be joined by our very own powerhouse panel to ask if this changes the electoral dial ahead of the coming election. also tonight we're hours from an agreed temporary pause in fighting between israel and hamas, in which there will be an exchange of 50 of hamas's hostages for 150 palestinian women and teenagers held in israeli jails. could this lead to a longer lasting peace? good evening. the chancellor said that today was a proud day. he was delivering the biggest business tax cut in modern history and the largest ever tax cuts for workers but measured against what? we are still set to have the largest overall tax burden since the second world war. and we face the prospect of a very tight public spending for so—called protected departments such as defence, and health and education in england, while we learned today of an implied extra cut on unprotected whitehall departments such as justice, transport and public health. ahead of today's autumn statement the chancellor said this was the moment to go for growth, but the office for budget responsibility has downgraded its growth forecast. so is this really a financial statement that shows we are turning an economic corner and one that will deliver a change in the government's political fortunes? first the economics. here's ben. there were two central claims from the chancellorjeremy hunt today as he delivered his autumn statement. first, that the country has "turned a corner" economically now inflation has halved relative to last year. second, that this was an "autumn statement for growth" down the line. is either accurate? first, lets grapple with whether we ve actually turned a corner. this shows the last round of gdp growth forecasts from the obr in the march budget. and here s the latest ones, in red. you can see an improvement this year but a deterioration in 2024 and 2025. and make no mistake, the outlook for our living standards remains pretty bleak. here s the march outlook in blue. and here s the new one in red. slightly better, but this dip over the next few years is still the biggest on post—war record. if this is right, it will not feel like we ve turned a corner to many households. but what about those personal tax cuts, the reductions in national insurance announced by the chancellor? those will help, won t they? well, yes, its vital to put them in the context of the many tax rises already in train. this shows the projected increase in tax over this parliament before the chancellors measures, adding up to around 4% of gdp. and here s after, so a very small decrease. this is still set to be the biggest tax—raising parliament since the second world war. lets illustrate this. for an employee on full—time annual earnings of £35,000, today s national insurance cut will cancel out the personal tax rise that would otherwise have caught them next year. but according to the institute for fiscal studies, by 2028 they will still be paying £249 a year more in direct tax overall as a result of all the tax changes since 2021. but was this a budget that will grow the economy in the longer term? the chancellor said his national insurance tax cuts and his business tax reform, making it possible for firms to offset their investment costs against corporation tax immediately, will deliver this. the obr does judge that this package will make a "small but lasting" impact on the economy s ability to grow. that s certainly welcome. yet, its important to note that the obr has still, despite this boost, revised down its estimate of the economy's medium term growth potential today from 1.8% to i.6%. that might not sound very much but it really matters. and it indicates we re still in a growth malaise. and while the chancellor spoke a lot about tax, he had less to say about our public services, particularly overstretched ones like the courts and police. that s likely because he has increased the implied post—2025 squeeze on unprotected departments day—to—day budgets in this autumn statement. here s the implied impact from march in terms of annual real terms growth. you can see there are increases for protected departments like health, defence, overseas aid, etc, but everything else, which includesjustice and local government etc, seems set for a 1.5% annual contraction. now here s the picture after the autumn statement. an even bigger implied cut to unprotected departments and also education. many analysts argue that these cuts are simply implausible and these budgets will have to ultimately be topped up. the obr itself says the chancellors implied spending plans are a "significant and growing risk to our forecast". these deep implied spending cuts, combined with the new tax cuts, will severely limit the room for manoeuvre of whoever is chancellor after the next general election. that s why some feel this autumn statement was as much about short—term political positioning as about growing the economy in the longer term. the government has very little time to change the economic weather before a general election, but is the direction of travel one that will energise the tory base, shore up the blue wall, attract the red wall, and keep westminster mps in line? the one nation caucus has already hailed the autumn statement as compassionate and fiscally responsible. nick's here. so tax cuts today but that's not the end of the story? that is right. jeremy hunt did describe this as the biggest package of tax cuts since the 1980s and a government as being described tonight as a down payment, in other words this isjust tonight as a down payment, in other words this is just the beginning. tonight as a down payment, in other words this isjust the beginning. it is the firm view in downing street that if inflation does continue on its downward path, and it is projected to go in that direction, then we will see more tax cuts before the general election. i am told it is the hope and intention of both the prime minister and chancellor that we will see those tax cuts in the spring budget. so what might we see? maybe we will see income tax cut, maybe we will see a cut to the inheritance tax. in income tax cut, maybe we will see a cut to the inheritance tax.— cut to the inheritance tax. in some wa s is it cut to the inheritance tax. in some ways is it making _ cut to the inheritance tax. in some ways is it making it _ cut to the inheritance tax. in some ways is it making it more - cut to the inheritance tax. in some ways is it making it more difficult i ways is it making it more difficult for the government and the rest of the westminster gang? the government was u set the westminster gang? the government was upset that — the westminster gang? the government was upset that everyone _ the westminster gang? the government was upset that everyone was _ was upset that everyone was focusing, the obr were saying it was the biggest tax burden since the war. they were saying we had a pandemic and an energy crisis. a divided party, but a united party tonight. jeremy hunt was talking about his compassionate and fiscally responsible stance and from the right, we should give this a fair win and they are very happy with the national insurance cuts. one senior figure on the right said the government obviously hopes this will shift the dial. if this doesn't, this person paused and said to me then what? a crucial moment for jeremy hunt to change the fortunes of this government, but also to shore up his own back yard which is a crucial battleground. a genteel corner of the english home counties. relative affluence and a sedate pace of life. godalming in surrey, which has comfortably returned jeremy hunt to parliament for nearly two decades, but now a potential battleground for the conservatives after 13 years in power. this is thejolly conservatives after 13 years in power. this is the jolly farmer pub, mentioned byjeremy hunt today. this is right in the heart of his constituency and right in the heart of the blue wall. those are those ones safe tory seats now firmly in the size of the liberal democrats. rishi sunak is clearly worried, that is why he brought back david cameron who has a bit of an effect in areas like this, so a big attempt today to shore up tory support in areas like this. and a big political message from the chancellor. i am the agent of stability no longer buffeted by an economy beyond our control. as master of events i can now deliver. so two headline grabbing retail offers. the two percentage point cut in the main employee national insurance rate. and a large tax cut for business with a permanent extension of an investment tax break. but the overall tax burden is still heading to a post—war high. and on the economic fundamentals, inflation is due to fall but growth is relatively flat. i inflation is due to fall but growth is relatively flat.— is relatively flat. i now call the chancellor _ is relatively flat. i now call the chancellor to _ is relatively flat. i now call the chancellor to make _ is relatively flat. i now call the chancellor to make the - is relatively flat. i now call the l chancellor to make the autumn statement, jeremy hunt. we are deliverin: statement, jeremy hunt. we are delivering the _ statement, jeremy hunt. we are delivering the biggest _ statement, jeremy hunt. we are delivering the biggest business | statement, jeremy hunt. we are l delivering the biggest business tax cuts in modern british history. the largest ever cut to employees and self—employed national insurance, and the biggest package of tax cuts to be implemented since the 1980s, an autumn statement for a country that has turned the corner, an autumn statement for growth which i commend to the house.— autumn statement for growth which i commend to the house. whoever this prime minister _ commend to the house. whoever this prime minister picks _ commend to the house. whoever this prime minister picks as _ commend to the house. whoever this prime minister picks as the _ prime minister picks as the chancellor at the truth is this, britain — chancellor at the truth is this, britain is _ chancellor at the truth is this, britain is and will be worse off under— britain is and will be worse off under the _ britain is and will be worse off under the conservatives. they have held back— under the conservatives. they have held back growth, they have crashed our economy, increased debt, trashed our economy, increased debt, trashed our public— our economy, increased debt, trashed our public services, left businesses out in _ our public services, left businesses out in the _ our public services, left businesses out in the cold and made life harder for working — out in the cold and made life harder for working people.— out in the cold and made life harder for working people. today he had the ower to for working people. today he had the power to help — for working people. today he had the power to help people, _ for working people. today he had the power to help people, to _ for working people. today he had the power to help people, to lift - for working people. today he had the power to help people, to lift a - power to help people, to lift a finger. — power to help people, to lift a finger. to _ power to help people, to lift a finger, to write _ power to help people, to lift a finger, to write some - power to help people, to lift a finger, to write some of- power to help people, to lift a finger, to write some of the l finger, to write some of the wrong is that— finger, to write some of the wrong is that this — finger, to write some of the wrong is that this government _ finger, to write some of the wrong is that this government has - is that this government has inflicted _ is that this government has inflicted upon _ is that this government has inflicted upon them, - is that this government has inflicted upon them, but i is that this government has - inflicted upon them, but people are not this— inflicted upon them, but people are not this government's _ inflicted upon them, but people are not this government's priority. - inflicted upon them, but people are not this government's priority. we i not this government's priority. we know_ not this government's priority. we know who — not this government's priority. we know who goes _ not this government's priority. we know who goes through _ not this government's priority. we know who goes through their - not this government's priority. we . know who goes through their priority lanes _ know who goes through their priority lanes. , , ., , know who goes through their priority lanes. , .,., lanes. this statement is deception from the chancellor _ lanes. this statement is deception from the chancellor after - lanes. this statement is deception from the chancellor after years of| from the chancellor after years of unfair tax hikes. from the chancellor after years of unfairtax hikes. underthis unfair tax hikes. under this conservative unfairtax hikes. underthis conservative government economic growth is flatlining and public services are on their knees. back to the “oll services are on their knees. back to the jolly farmer _ services are on their knees. back to the jolly farmer pub. _ services are on their knees. back to the jolly farmer pub. he _ services are on their knees. back to the jolly farmer pub. he has - services are on their knees. back to the jolly farmer pub. he has been l the jolly farmer pub. he has been known to frequent _ the jolly farmer pub. he has been known to frequent the _ the jolly farmer pub. he has been known to frequent the place - the jolly farmer pub. he has been known to frequent the place fairly regular and he likes fish and chips. confirmation thatjeremy hunt a is regular and a welcome for his freeze in alcohol duty until august and the wider help for business. it is in alcohol duty until august and the wider help for business.— wider help for business. it is a ositive wider help for business. it is a positive thing _ wider help for business. it is a positive thing for _ wider help for business. it is a positive thing for us, - wider help for business. it is a positive thing for us, very - wider help for business. it is a l positive thing for us, very much wider help for business. it is a - positive thing for us, very much so, and the freeze on the business rates, again very positive. but it will not stop the brewers increased their prices. we know there is inflationary pressure at there and it will reflect one way or another, but it is good the government is not adding to that. yes, we are happy with that news. very pleased. back in godalming _ with that news. very pleased. back in godalming strong views about the government. i wonder how do you think things are looking? absolutely chastl . think things are looking? absolutely ghastly- they _ think things are looking? absolutely ghastly- they are — think things are looking? absolutely ghastly. they are clearly _ think things are looking? absolutely ghastly. they are clearly doing - ghastly. they are clearly doing pensions to try and get the grave out, but i as a grey voter have just had it up today with the 13 years of tory misrule. but had it up today with the 13 years of tory misrule— tory misrule. but are supported. the are tory misrule. but are supported. the)! are doing — tory misrule. but are supported. they are doing the _ tory misrule. but are supported. they are doing the best - tory misrule. but are supported. they are doing the best they - tory misrule. but are supported. they are doing the best they can | they are doing the best they can under_ they are doing the best they can under the — they are doing the best they can under the circumstances. the difficult under the circumstances. tie: difficult circumstances? under the circumstances. the difficult circumstances? very| difficult circumstances? very difficult circumstances? very difficult and _ difficult circumstances? very difficult and they _ difficult circumstances? very difficult and they are - difficult circumstances? very difficult and they are doing the best they can. difficult and they are doing the best they can-— best they can. evening calm in surrey and _ best they can. evening calm in surrey and in _ best they can. evening calm in surrey and in the _ best they can. evening calm in surrey and in the high - best they can. evening calm in surrey and in the high streets| best they can. evening calm in - surrey and in the high streets and alleys a fierce debate is underway. earlier, i spoke to the economic secretry to the treasury, bim afolami. i began by asking him about the downgrade of uk growth in the obr's forecasts. so the first thing is that we don't lag behind most other countries. in the g7 we have the third highest growth since 2010. and in relation to growth forecasts i know that last year our growth was actually much higher than the obr forecast it was going to be at the time and next year our growth is up, the total size of the economy is up 2% — £40 billion — from where it was meant to be in the march budget. so i don't accept your picture on growth at all. so what you're suggesting is that the obr isn't really worth the paper it is written on? no, of course not. they have a very difficult job forecasting, as everybody does, but my point is that the measures we are taking today are setting the long—term foundation for growth in our economy. when i said that we are only third in the g7, that's not to say that our growth is as high as we would like, of course it's not, that's why we are taking these measures. we have got over a hundred growth measures in this autumn statement. and you know in the budget next year, there will be more to come. so what the chancellor has announced today amounts to a £19.1 billion cut in public spending, roughly equal to what the chancellor's spending in tax cuts. so people are going to feel much more of a lack of public spending and services, more than they're going to feel the benefit of tax cuts, given that actually the tax cuts don't actually measure up to the impact that inflation's had on wages and pay? so, it is not a cut in public spending. what you're referring to is spending