the one where your consent is crystallised and you talk about how the penny dropped. then there's two more meetings you attended. after the 23rd, your invitations to sage ceased. any particular reason why? 1 ceased. any particular reason why? i actually don't know. i did ask patrick— actually don't know. i did ask patrick once but sage, its membership can change and it's the government scientific adviser to decide~ — government scientific adviser to decide. essentially when it went online _ decide. essentially when it went online rather than in person, i didn't— online rather than in person, i didn't seem to get in fights any more _ didn't seem to get in fights any more but — didn't seem to get in fights any more but we were pretty busy other work _ more but we were pretty busy other work. , , ., , . , work. next subtopic is herd immunity- _ work. next subtopic is herd immunity. we've _ work. next subtopic is herd immunity. we've heard - work. next subtopic is herd immunity. we've heard a i work. next subtopic is herd | immunity. we've heard a lot work. next subtopic is herd - immunity. we've heard a lot about it. you've had some involvement in this and i want to touch upon your understanding of that strategy from your contact with those at the heart of government. you had contact with niall ferguson on the 28th of february and contact with both the chief scientific officer and the chief medical officer. what was that understanding in late february of the strategy? 50. understanding in late february of the strategy?— understanding in late february of the strategy? so, of course it was then expressed _ the strategy? so, of course it was then expressed in _ the strategy? so, of course it was then expressed in the _ the strategy? so, of course it was then expressed in the published l then expressed in the published document on the 3rd of march, essentially it was contain if you could _ essentially it was contain if you could and — essentially it was contain if you could and then you mitigate. that was it _ could and then you mitigate. that was it as — could and then you mitigate. that was it. as you say, i not uniquely was it. as you say, i not uniquely was getting — was it. as you say, i not uniquely was getting increasingly troubled about— was getting increasingly troubled about that, i suppose, because we felt there — about that, i suppose, because we felt there were viable ways of doing sophisticated suppression but essentially the presumption was, on all quarters it felt from a convergence of different medical views, _ convergence of different medical views, the modelling, the position on vaccines, the practical experience of the cmo himself, was that once _ experience of the cmo himself, was that once community transmission had started _ that once community transmission had started it _ that once community transmission had started it would be some version of an unstoppable wave, yes. in an unstoppable wave, yes. relation to an unstoppable wave, yes. in relation to herd immunity, an unstoppable wave, yes. i�*i relation to herd immunity, you utilised that phrase can used it in a bbc interview on the 10th of march which is set out in your statement. this followed on from the 3rd of march sage meeting where it was unstoppable and you refer to that interview where you made comment about the need to cocoon the elderly and most vulnerable in the weeks to come and you referred to the fray is herd immunity. at that stage, why did you referred to the need to cocoon the elderly and vulnerable? —— the phrase herd immunity. the -- the phrase herd immunity. the interview was _ —— the phrase herd immunity. the interview was primarily talking about — interview was primarily talking about the science behind, you know, will be _ about the science behind, you know, will be talked about a moment to go. hand washing. will be talked about a moment to go. hand washing-— will be talked about a moment to go. hand washing. hand washing and more renerall . hand washing. hand washing and more generally- the — hand washing. hand washing and more generally. the interviewer— hand washing. hand washing and more generally. the interviewer mark- generally. the interviewer mark easton — generally. the interviewer mark easton asked a question at the end and i_ easton asked a question at the end and i responded, probably shouldn't have done — and i responded, probably shouldn't have done. around essentially the vulnerable. and i said, partly because _ vulnerable. and i said, partly because of course it was in all the meetings, — because of course it was in all the meetings, it was in the media, self—evidently there was this massive _ self—evidently there was this massive evidence in the rate so it was pretty— massive evidence in the rate so it was pretty inevitable that we would want to _ was pretty inevitable that we would want to protect the most vulnerable. he used _ want to protect the most vulnerable. he used the phrase cocooning because it was— he used the phrase cocooning because it was used _ he used the phrase cocooning because it was used in the literature and i think— it was used in the literature and i think he — it was used in the literature and i think he asked me the question about three times, which had been a warning — three times, which had been a warning sign. 0n the third time i said we — warning sign. 0n the third time i said we obviously need to cocoon and people _ said we obviously need to cocoon and people until— said we obviously need to cocoon and people until herd immunity or whatever— people until herd immunity or whatever had been achieved. sentiment, tease your phrase, an authentic one, the need to cocoon. yes, you need to protect the most vulnerable — yes, you need to protect the most vulnerable and the phrase herd immunity— vulnerable and the phrase herd immunity was being used widely and it was— immunity was being used widely and it was probably a mistake on my part to have _ it was probably a mistake on my part to have used it in that interview. but you — to have used it in that interview. but you are _ to have used it in that interview. but you are contacted by number 10 communications, not leaking but someone else in that office —— not lee king. you are pulled up about using cocoon, is that correct? yes. using cocoon, is that correct? yes, it was jack — using cocoon, is that correct? yes, it was jack doyle — using cocoon, is that correct? yes, it was jack doyle and _ using cocoon, is that correct? yes, it was jack doyle and they - using cocoon, is that correct? yes, it was jack doyle and they were very angry— it was jack doyle and they were very angry about it but particularly angry— angry about it but particularly angry about it but particularly angry about the word cocaine. my memory— angry about the word cocaine. my nrenrory of— angry about the word cocaine. my memory of it was because the word hadn't _ memory of it was because the word hadn't been — memory of it was because the word hadn't been used in public and they didn't— hadn't been used in public and they didn't really want to get into that issue _ didn't really want to get into that issue because it hadn't been talked about— issue because it hadn't been talked about publicly as a policy issue. there _ about publicly as a policy issue. there were issues around if you had symptoms— there were issues around if you had symptoms that you might be asked to self—isolate but none of the stuff around _ self—isolate but none of the stuff around what later became shielding had been _ around what later became shielding had been discussed i think in the public— had been discussed i think in the public policy. 10th had been discussed i think in the public policy-— public policy. 10th of march, unhappiness _ public policy. 10th of march, unhappiness that _ public policy. 10th of march, unhappiness that you - public policy. 10th of march, unhappiness that you are . public policy. 10th of march, - unhappiness that you are dealing with cocooning what became shielding but herd immunity was ok? yes. with cocooning what became shielding but herd immunity was ok?— but herd immunity was ok? yes, it was “ust but herd immunity was ok? yes, it wasiust very _ but herd immunity was ok? yes, it was just very widely _ but herd immunity was ok? yes, it was just very widely used _ but herd immunity was ok? yes, it was just very widely used in - but herd immunity was ok? yes, it was just very widely used in all - but herd immunity was ok? yes, it was just very widely used in all the | was just very widely used in all the internal— was just very widely used in all the internal discussions as a shorthand and that— internal discussions as a shorthand and that it — internal discussions as a shorthand and that it would arise over time. moving _ and that it would arise over time. moving on — and that it would arise over time. moving on to behavioural fatigue, moving on to behaviouralfatigue, we've heard a lot about it in the public domain and you refer to this in your statement. we should see this at paragraph 64 and in fairness to you we need to address this. on two occasions, professor whitty deals with this on the 9th of march and 12th of march and talks about sustainability and how people will understandably get fatigued and it will be difficult to sustain this over a period of time. we can see a reference to it there and he will give evidence in relation to that but the first point is this, it's been suggested in the past that you and your organisation were in shadows, the source of this advice, is that correct? 50. shadows, the source of this advice, is that correct?— is that correct? so, i'm glad to get this clear- — is that correct? so, i'm glad to get this clear. we _ is that correct? so, i'm glad to get this clear. we were _ is that correct? so, i'm glad to get this clear. we were not. _ is that correct? so, i'm glad to get this clear. we were not. it - is that correct? so, i'm glad to get this clear. we were not. it wasn't i is that correct? so, i'm glad to get| this clear. we were not. it wasn't a phrase _ this clear. we were not. it wasn't a phrase we — this clear. we were not. it wasn't a phrase we used. not only was it not from _ phrase we used. not only was it not from us _ phrase we used. not only was it not from us but — phrase we used. not only was it not from us but as you will no privately from _ from us but as you will no privately from the _ from us but as you will no privately from the e—mails we were pushing pretty— from the e—mails we were pushing pretty hard — from the e—mails we were pushing pretty hard to move forward on social— pretty hard to move forward on social distancing measures by that point _ social distancing measures by that point. chris whitty, i read his statement, he is pretty clear about where _ statement, he is pretty clear about where it— statement, he is pretty clear about where it comes from and describes it as a mistake — where it comes from and describes it as a mistake on his part but it was unfortunate — as a mistake on his part but it was unfortunate. did as a mistake on his part but it was unfortunate-— as a mistake on his part but it was unfortunate. , , ., ., . unfortunate. did you relay to him at the time that _ unfortunate. did you relay to him at the time that it — unfortunate. did you relay to him at the time that it wasn't _ unfortunate. did you relay to him at the time that it wasn't the - unfortunate. did you relay to him at the time that it wasn't the right - the time that it wasn't the right phrase from a behavioural scientist perspective? i phrase from a behavioural scientist perspective?— perspective? i don't know if i did. he had lots _ perspective? i don't know if i did. he had lots of— perspective? i don't know if i did. he had lots of other _ perspective? i don't know if i did. he had lots of other things. - perspective? i don't know if i did. he had lots of other things. i - perspective? i don't know if i did. he had lots of other things. i did | he had lots of other things. i did send _ he had lots of other things. i did send him — he had lots of other things. i did send him a — he had lots of other things. i did send him a papera he had lots of other things. i did send him a paper a few days later, which _ send him a paper a few days later, which i _ send him a paper a few days later, which i think— send him a paper a few days later, which i think is in the evidence. this— which i think is in the evidence. this is— which i think is in the evidence. this is about the spanish flu. which was essentially _ this is about the spanish flu. which was essentially to _ this is about the spanish flu. which was essentially to look _ this is about the spanish flu. which was essentially to look at _ this is about the spanish flu. which was essentially to look at some - this is about the spanish flu. which was essentially to look at some work as far— was essentially to look at some work as far as— was essentially to look at some work as far as it _ was essentially to look at some work as far as it had occurred during spanish — as far as it had occurred during spanish flu. the main point about the paper— spanish flu. the main point about the paper was that even in those difficult — the paper was that even in those difficult circumstances, you did not see this _ difficult circumstances, you did not see this so—called fatigue, only by the time _ see this so—called fatigue, only by the time you got to the second or third _ the time you got to the second or third time — the time you got to the second or third time he had a lockdown did you see anything akin to people really starting _ see anything akin to people really starting to give up on it. is see anything akin to people really starting to give up on it.— starting to give up on it. is this a fair summary. — starting to give up on it. is this a fair summary, that _ starting to give up on it. is this a fair summary, that it _ starting to give up on it. is this a fair summary, that it gives - starting to give up on it. is this a fair summary, that it gives that i fair summary, that it gives that information, is a discussion point but it's a bit ambivalent in terms of providing express advice that it was the wrong thing to say, behavioural fatigue. was the wrong thing to say, behaviouralfatigue. yes was the wrong thing to say, behavioural fatigue. yes and james rubin and others, _ behavioural fatigue. yes and james rubin and others, there _ behavioural fatigue. yes and james rubin and others, there was - behavioural fatigue. yes and james rubin and others, there was an - rubin and others, there was an avalanche — rubin and others, there was an avalanche coming towards chris to say, what — avalanche coming towards chris to say, what are you talking about? its particular— say, what are you talking about? its particular context of novel behaviour and when everybody is moving _ behaviour and when everybody is moving together our strong view, you mention— moving together our strong view, you mention to _ moving together our strong view, you mention to the quarantine work also, was that— mention to the quarantine work also, was that people would comply to a hi-h was that people would comply to a high degree. so it was misleading to imply— high degree. so it was misleading to imply behavioural science was saying that and _ imply behavioural science was saying that and again, chris whitty has spoken— that and again, chris whitty has spoken about it in his statement, he unfortunately gave the impression that was— unfortunately gave the impression that was a — unfortunately gave the impression that was a reason for delay which was not _ that was a reason for delay which was not his— that was a reason for delay which was not his intent i think. and of course _ was not his intent i think. and of course from _ was not his intent i think. and of course from the sage minutes wasn't what was _ course from the sage minutes wasn't what was being said in private. next toic, what was being said in private. next tepic. change _ what was being said in private. next tepic. change in _ what was being said in private. ilar topic, change in strategy and your experience of this. the timeline, we've dealt with the 10th of march and there was a view about covid being unstoppable. containing was no longer viable. you mentioned that you erased concerns on the 12th of march specifically regarding the limitations of sage modelling in an e—mail. you say this, we are at the limits of what modelling can tell us and then we see a pivotal meeting, my words not yours, on the 13th of march, a sage meeting. my terminology but would you agree that was a significant meeting? it felt that it was- _ was a significant meeting? it felt that it was- i— was a significant meeting? it felt that it was. i felt _ was a significant meeting? it felt that it was. | felt that _ was a significant meeting? it felt that it was. | felt that the - was a significant meeting? it felt| that it was. i felt that the content of the _ that it was. i felt that the content of the discussion and the emotional tone in— of the discussion and the emotional tone in the — of the discussion and the emotional tone in the rain, there was this realisation _ tone in the rain, there was this realisation that something was amiss and policy— realisation that something was amiss and policy had to shift. let�*s and policy had to shift. let's exlore and policy had to shift. let's explore this _ and policy had to shift. let's explore this realisation - and policy had to shift. let's explore this realisation that | explore this realisation that something was amiss. key stage meeting, there was a graph of an infection wave over time with a red line to represent nhs capacity, with the key objective to keep the wave under the red line in line with the mitigating delay messaging. and you say that there were different understandings of capacity, the red line, number of beds and ventilators. is that right? yes. is the that during _ ventilators. is that right? yes. is the that during the _ ventilators. is that right? yes. is the that during the meeting, stephen powers, who was an nhs director and patrick vallance questioned the modellers of why they were so sure that suppression of the virus in line with what was being done in china and south korea was not viable? i'm eating out your evidence. is that what the position was? . , evidence. is that what the position was? , , ., , , ,, evidence. is that what the position was? , , ., , was? yes, my memory is steve powers secificall was? yes, my memory is steve powers specifically raised _ was? yes, my memory is steve powers specifically raised it. _ was? yes, my memory is steve powers specifically raised it. my _ was? yes, my memory is steve powers specifically raised it. my memory - specifically raised it. my memory follows _ specifically raised it. my memory follows on— specifically raised it. my memory follows on from what you just said which _ follows on from what you just said which is _ follows on from what you just said which is that there seemed to be confusion — which is that there seemed to be confusion over what was the capacity in that— confusion over what was the capacity in that red _ confusion over what was the capacity in that red line, the difference between — in that red line, the difference between icu versus serious cases, three _ between icu versus serious cases, three full— between icu versus serious cases, three full differential, etc. and that this — three full differential, etc. and that this was a big problem and the implication was that the numbers and models _ implication was that the numbers and models you _ implication was that the numbers and models you been using would be overwhelmed. i think that prompted steve _ overwhelmed. i think that prompted steve powers to say, why are you so sure that — steve powers to say, why are you so sure that doing stronger measures in lockdown— sure that doing stronger measures in lockdown would necessarily, why is it a bad _ lockdown would necessarily, why is it a bad thing to do? and patrick vallance — it a bad thing to do? and patrick vallance picked up on it and said that is— vallance picked up on it and said that is a — vallance picked up on it and said that is a really good question and pressed _ that is a really good question and pressed the modellers to answer. and what was pressed the modellers to answer. what was their pressed the modellers to answer. fific what was their response to that pressing or probing? thea;r what was their response to that pressing or probing?— what was their response to that pressing or probing? they were very definite, pressing or probing? they were very definite. they _ pressing or probing? they were very definite, they are _ pressing or probing? they were very definite, they are modelling - pressing or probing? they were very definite, they are modelling expertsi definite, they are modelling experts but what _ definite, they are modelling experts but what struck me again in this moment— but what struck me again in this moment was they said, graham particularly, 100% sure. one of the things— particularly, 100% sure. one of the things i_ particularly, 100% sure. one of the things i would teach at cambridge was statistics and you just think, nothing — was statistics and you just think, nothing is — was statistics and you just think, nothing is 100%, certainly in models _ nothing is 100%, certainly in models. it troubled me really deeply because _ models. it troubled me really deeply because i_ models. it troubled me really deeply because i felt that 99% but 100%? and it _ because i felt that 99% but 100%? and it encapsulates for me in a moment— and it encapsulates for me in a moment this overconfidence in aspects — moment this overconfidence in aspects of the models. in relation to overconfidence _ aspects of the models. in relation to overconfidence in _ aspects of the models. in relation to overconfidence in the - aspects of the models. in relation i to overconfidence in the modelling, you mention in your statement this confusion regarding nhs capacity and other issues such as the lower level of testing capacity and ambition, i presume the lower level of ambition. what did you mean by that? 50. presume the lower level of ambition. what did you mean by that?- what did you mean by that? so, as many things _ what did you mean by that? so, as many things were _ what did you mean by that? so, as many things were gone _ what did you mean by that? so, as many things were gone through - what did you mean by that? so, as many things were gone through in l many things were gone through in that meeting and another one was testing _ that meeting and another one was testing capacity. i think my notepad recorded _ testing capacity. i think my notepad recorded as, it said they had 1000 tests— recorded as, it said they had 1000 tests a _ recorded as, it said they had 1000 tests a month and i think i had scribbled. _ tests a month and i think i had scribbled, why so few? 1000 a week, 1000 a _ scribbled, why so few? 1000 a week, 1000 a day, _ scribbled, why so few? 1000 a week, 1000 a day, we are so far off the pace _ 1000 a day, we are so far off the pace so— 1000 a day, we are so far off the pace. so now you have three major concerns— pace. so now you have three major concerns piling up in this meeting. just pause — concerns piling up in this meeting. just pause there. thank you. all these concerns, overconfidence and you refer to your notebook and you are making a number of nights but what you did right was that we are not ready, is that correct? i did and i not ready, is that correct? i did and l rated _ not ready, is that correct? i did and i rated in _ not ready, is that correct? i did and i rated in capital _ not ready, is that correct? i did and i rated in capital letters. —— i rate _ and i rated in capital letters. —— i rate it _ and i rated in capital letters. —— i rate it in — and i rated in capital letters. —— i rate it in capital letters. a rate it in capital letters. colleague leaned over and crossed out your entry which we see at the bottom of your page and what was written instead? brute bottom of your page and what was written instead?— bottom of your page and what was written instead? a written instead? we are expletive. a number 10 colleague? _ written instead? we are expletive. a number10 colleague? yes, _ written instead? we are expletive. a number 10 colleague? yes, then - number10 colleague? yes, then warner. number10 colleague? yes, then warner- 50. _ number10 colleague? yes, then warner. so, in _ number10 colleague? yes, then warner. so, in graphic— number10 colleague? yes, then warner. so, in graphic terms - warner. so, in graphic terms reflecting — warner. so, in graphic terms reflecting the _ warner. so, in graphic terms reflecting the meeting, - warner. so, in graphic terms - reflecting the meeting, concerns... apologies for some of the language being used, this is life on the bbc. the one play that you had in the strategy — the one play that you had in the strategy as was expressed to us i think— strategy as was expressed to us i think was— strategy as was expressed to us i think was that you can shape the wave, _ think was that you can shape the wave. you — think was that you can shape the wave, you could flatten it, etc. you are trying _ wave, you could flatten it, etc. you are trying to — wave, you could flatten it, etc. you are trying to do it to stop the nhs being _ are trying to do it to stop the nhs being overwhelmed but in this meeting — being overwhelmed but in this meeting you are hearing evidence that on— meeting you are hearing evidence that on current trajectory it's going — that on current trajectory it's going to _ that on current trajectory it's going to be overwhelmed, that we don't _ going to be overwhelmed, that we don't have — going to be overwhelmed, that we don't have the testing ready. there is a lot— don't have the testing ready. there is a lot of— don't have the testing ready. there is a lot of grounds for concern and so hence — is a lot of grounds for concern and so hence i— is a lot of grounds for concern and so hence i really felt quite shocked and depressed, i felt that it's not our role — and depressed, i felt that it's not our role to— and depressed, i felt that it's not our role to do all those things, we are working — our role to do all those things, we are working on the behavioural aspects — are working on the behavioural aspects l— are working on the behavioural asects. ~ are working on the behavioural asects. ,, ., are working on the behavioural asects. ~ ., ., aspects. i think we are both going to have to slow _ aspects. i think we are both going to have to slow down _ aspects. i think we are both going to have to slow down a _ aspects. i think we are both going to have to slow down a bit. - aspects. i think we are both going to have to slow down a bit. i - aspects. i think we are both going i to have to slow down a bit. i speak. the best of times, so if we could try and slow down a bit and i've interrupted you so forgive me, you said you were feeling quite shocked and depressed. is there anything you wanted to add? the and depressed. is there anything you wanted to add?— wanted to add? the overall sense was, as wanted to add? the overall sense was. as in — wanted to add? the overall sense was. as in my _ wanted to add? the overall sense was, as in my notebook, - wanted to add? the overall sense was, as in my notebook, we - wanted to add? the overall sense was, as in my notebook, we the l was, as in my notebook, we the country— was, as in my notebook, we the country is — was, as in my notebook, we the country is not ready for what is unfolding — country is not ready for what is unfolding and i felt that on people's faces in the run, that that, — people's faces in the run, that that, there was some realisation of it, that, there was some realisation of it. cracking — that, there was some realisation of it, cracking and confidence. the enn it, cracking and confidence. the penny has _ it, cracking and confidence. tie: penny has dropped is it, cracking and confidence. ti9: penny has dropped is how you describe it. and you say in your statement that others in the room and you felt we should be pursuing suppression strategies, is that right? suppression strategies, is that riuht? . :. �* . suppression strategies, is that riuht? , . �* , , suppression strategies, is that riuht? , . �*, ,., right? yes. that's right. there is a key question _ right? yes. that's right. there is a key question of — right? yes. that's right. there is a key question of what _ right? yes. that's right. there is a key question of what suppression l key question of what suppression means— key question of what suppression means but basically... i key question of what suppression means but basically. . ._ key question of what suppression means but basically... i think we've heard quite — means but basically... i think we've heard quite a _ means but basically... i think we've heard quite a lot _ means but basically... i think we've heard quite a lot about _ means but basically... i think we've heard quite a lot about that - means but basically... i think we've heard quite a lot about that so - means but basically... i think we've heard quite a lot about that so we l heard quite a lot about that so we are ok. so, post meeting, difficult meeting, you were in contact with matt hancock who you've worked with alongside for a number of weeks, to updating and you describe how you felt then, he spoke to him and you said that the penny has dropped, that we really need to do something about suppression and locking down and what was the response? 50. about suppression and locking down and what was the response? so, yes, i had texted — and what was the response? so, yes, i had texted matt _ and what was the response? so, yes, i had texted matt and _ and what was the response? so, yes, i had texted matt and he _ and what was the response? so, yes, i had texted matt and he called - and what was the response? so, yes, i had texted matt and he called me i i had texted matt and he called me back _ i had texted matt and he called me back i_ i had texted matt and he called me back i was — i had texted matt and he called me back. i was surprised i suppose, he said this _ back. i was surprised i suppose, he said this was — back. i was surprised i suppose, he said this was the best news he had heard _ said this was the best news he had heard all— said this was the best news he had heard all week, this news on a specific— heard all week, this news on a specific sense which was that there was this— specific sense which was that there was this realisation that strategy might— was this realisation that strategy might need to change, something more dramatic— might need to change, something more dramatic might have to be done in order— dramatic might have to be done in order to _ dramatic might have to be done in order to really slow down the spread — order to really slow down the spread. so i was surprised by it but i spread. so i was surprised by it but lwasn't _ spread. so i was surprised by it but lwasn't in — spread. so i was surprised by it but i wasn't in all the meetings he was. not the _ i wasn't in all the meetings he was. not the most natural response to a bad news message but your impression was that he felt stronger and more immediate action was necessary and we couldn'tjust immediate action was necessary and we couldn't just wait for an unstoppable wave. mr; we couldn't just wait for an unstoppable wave. we couldn't just wait for an unsto able wave. g , , ., unstoppable wave. my sense was for ministers such _ unstoppable wave. my sense was for ministers such as _ unstoppable wave. my sense was for ministers such as matt _ unstoppable wave. my sense was for ministers such as matt hancock, - ministers such as matt hancock, others _ ministers such as matt hancock, others were much closer at number 10, that _ others were much closer at number 10, that they were dutifully following the science and were very uncomfortable with where it was going _ uncomfortable with where it was going so. — uncomfortable with where it was going. so, there was appetite to be stronger— going. so, there was appetite to be stronger in— going. so, there was appetite to be stronger in policy needs but they were _ stronger in policy needs but they were waiting for the signal to be told that's what we need to do. so, that's— told that's what we need to do. so, that's why— told that's what we need to do. so, that's why he experienced it as a good _ that's why he experienced it as a good thing that that realisation was coming _ good thing that that realisation was coming through. you good thing that that realisation was coming through-— coming through. you say later in our coming through. you say later in your statement _ coming through. you say later in your statement is _ coming through. you say later in your statement is that _ coming through. you say later in your statement is that in - coming through. you say later in l your statement is that in particular the matt hancock, in your view he was quite frustrated and ready to act more decisively, is that right? at that time. act more decisively, is that right? at that time-— act more decisively, is that right? at that time. that was my sense at that time. at that time. that was my sense at that time- in _ at that time. that was my sense at that time. in relation _ at that time. that was my sense at that time. in relation to _ at that time. that was my sense at that time. in relation to those - that time. in relation to those concerns. _ that time. in relation to those concerns, he _ that time. in relation to those concerns, he set _ that time. in relation to those concerns, he set out - that time. in relation to those concerns, he set out in - that time. in relation to those concerns, he set out in your l concerns, he set out in your statement held between 16th and 18th of march he sent several e—mails to dominic cummings and others in advance of the next age meeting expressing your concern and they need to consider a global lockdown, to shut down the virus. and that was something that you are in correspondence with, is that correct? . :. �* . correspondence with, is that correct? , ., �*, . correspondence with, is that i correct?— and correspondence with, is that correct? , ., �*, . and on correct? yes that's correct. and on the 18th of — correct? yes that's correct. and on the 18th of march _ correct? yes that's correct. and on the 18th of march we _ correct? yes that's correct. and on the 18th of march we know- correct? yes that's correct. and on the 18th of march we know that, i correct? yes that's correct. and oni the 18th of march we know that, as he set out in your statements, that you argued for lockdown in a meeting. you argued for lockdown in a meetinu. . you argued for lockdown in a meeting-— you argued for lockdown in a meetinu. . f you argued for lockdown in a meetinu. . j ., meeting. yes. they're in mind that before the 13th _ meeting. yes. they're in mind that before the 13th i _ meeting. yes. they're in mind that before the 13th i had _ meeting. yes. they're in mind that before the 13th i had already - before the 13th i had already written — before the 13th i had already written to say, in fact literally write — written to say, in fact literally write a — written to say, in fact literally write a list of what we would now call lockdown style measures but yes at this _ call lockdown style measures but yes at this point it was why aren't we going _ at this point it was why aren't we going full— at this point it was why aren't we going full blame. i was not at that time aware, i had read patrick vallance's_ time aware, i had read patrick vallance's statement that there were meetings _ vallance's statement that there were meetings that had clearly occurred in between those two meetings, so in that sense _ in between those two meetings, so in that sense we were in our lane but yes, i_ that sense we were in our lane but yes, iwas— that sense we were in our lane but yes, i was really concerned that we needed _ yes, i was really concerned that we needed a _ yes, i was really concerned that we needed a very decisive decision. you ut it ve needed a very decisive decision. you put it very well. _ needed a very decisive decision. gm. put it very well, you're in your lane, we've got other evidence that we have which is why i'm dealing with this quite succinctly. there was 1.1 wanted to draw out which this paragraph 93. he described on the 23rd of march an e—mail with tim loyning he was at her majesty's treasury and there were e—mails between you and you expressed the modellers at sage seem to have a remarkably thin grip on the behavioural or system side effects such as people being afraid to seek treatment for other conditions and that's something that you had identified at that stage and raised. that's correct. we went over the models — that's correct. we went over the models quite carefully and niall ferguson had been kind enough to let one of— ferguson had been kind enough to let one of my— ferguson had been kind enough to let one of my teen go—to imperial, behind — one of my teen go—to imperial, behind the _ one of my teen go—to imperial, behind the curtain of the models. at this point— behind the curtain of the models. at this point we were may be less confident— this point we were may be less confident but this was one of issues, — confident but this was one of issues, the specific thing comes in for slater — issues, the specific thing comes in for slater. if people aren't going in large — for slater. if people aren't going in large numbers to get medical treatment, then you get a lot of excess — treatment, then you get a lot of excess deaths or illness as a result — excess deaths or illness as a result. tim i think had written to me about — result. tim i think had written to me about some of his concerns. he was an— me about some of his concerns. he was an adviser to the chancellor and i put was an adviser to the chancellor and i put him _ was an adviser to the chancellor and i put him in — was an adviser to the chancellor and i put him in touch with the government's actuary who are experts in some _ government's actuary who are experts in some of— government's actuary who are experts in some of these questions. our third in some of these questions. oi" third penultimate area, and in some of these questions. (zii:' third penultimate area, and it's a short one, is understanding and compliance of social distancing from a behavioural perspective. again, a comprehensive statement, you deal with this impact of senior officials' breaches and i want to touch upon this from your expertise as a behavioural scientist. from a behavioural perspective you described the dominic cummings incident has very unhelpful. why was that? in your view, from an expert point of view not an opinion point of view. . point of view not an opinion point of view. , ,, :, point of view not an opinion point of view. , , .,, ., , of view. yes. so, people are very influenced _ of view. yes. so, people are very influenced by _ of view. yes. so, people are very influenced by what _ of view. yes. so, people are very influenced by what they - of view. yes. so, people are very influenced by what they see - of view. yes. so, people are very i influenced by what they see others doing _ influenced by what they see others doing. we'll sit here quietly in this room. _ doing. we'll sit here quietly in this room, partly taking cues from each _ this room, partly taking cues from each other — this room, partly taking cues from each other. in this case, in everyday— each other. in this case, in everyday speak, people are more influenced by what they see others doing _ influenced by what they see others doing and — influenced by what they see others doing and what the formal rules are, sometimes _ doing and what the formal rules are, sometimes known as declarative norms~ — sometimes known as declarative norms. littering would be a simple example _ norms. littering would be a simple example. you are more likely to litter _ example. you are more likely to litter in — example. you are more likely to litter in a — example. you are more likely to litter in a room that already has letter~ — litter in a room that already has letter. there you've got a high—profile figure on the face of it pretty— high—profile figure on the face of it pretty blatantly breaking the rules _ it pretty blatantly breaking the rules and justifying it, seeking to justify— rules and justifying it, seeking to justify it~ — rules and justifying it, seeking to justify it. so, it's extremely less than _ justify it. so, it's extremely less than ideal — justify it. so, it's extremely less than ideal. if there was any thing to be _ than ideal. if there was any thing to be positively taken from it was that the _ to be positively taken from it was that the data suggested most of the public— that the data suggested most of the public were complying and continuing to comply— public were complying and continuing to comply because what mattered more was those _ to comply because what mattered more was those people around you, your neighbours, fellow workers, commuters were fortunately more important — commuters were fortunately more important than what someone at downing — important than what someone at downing street was doing. pausing for a moment- _ downing street was doing. pausing for a moment. so, _ downing street was doing. pausing for a moment. so, an _ downing street was doing. pausing for a moment. so, an issue - downing street was doing. pausing for a moment. so, an issue which i for a moment. so, an issue which mitigated by other behavioural factors which may affect an individual but you describe it from a behavioural point of view as an almost textbook example of what not to do, is that correct? it almost textbook example of what not to do, is that correct?— to do, is that correct? it was atrocious- — to do, is that correct? it was atrocious. later _ to do, is that correct? it was atrocious. later on - to do, is that correct? it was atrocious. later on in - to do, is that correct? it was atrocious. later on in your. atrocious. later on in your statement _ atrocious. later on in your statement you _ atrocious. later on in your statement you said - atrocious. later on in your statement you said it - atrocious. later on in your| statement you said it blew atrocious. later on in your. statement you said it blew a atrocious. later on in your- statement you said it blew a huge hole in a rule—based approach and undermined the credibility of her majesty's government in what it was demanding of the public. yes. majesty's government in what it was demanding of the public.— demanding of the public. yes. i don't know _ demanding of the public. yes. i don't know how _ demanding of the public. yes. i don't know how much - demanding of the public. yes. i don't know how much detail- demanding of the public. yes. i | don't know how much detail you demanding of the public. yes. i - don't know how much detail you want to -o don't know how much detail you want to go in— don't know how much detail you want to go in on— don't know how much detail you want to go in on this. i don't know how much detail you want to go in on this-— to go in on this. i was “ust going to go in on this. i was “ust going to draw that h to go in on this. i was “ust going to draw that out _ to go in on this. i wasjust going to draw that out unless - to go in on this. i wasjust going to draw that out unless there i to go in on this. i wasjust going. to draw that out unless there was anything else he wanted to say that you considered key. let anything else he wanted to say that you considered key.— anything else he wanted to say that you considered key. let me put down a marker that — you considered key. let me put down a marker that rule-based _ you considered key. let me put down| a marker that rule-based frameworks a marker that rule—based frameworks on behaviour— a marker that rule—based frameworks on behaviour are brittle. you follow the rule, _ on behaviour are brittle. you follow the rule, if— on behaviour are brittle. you follow the rule, if you don't get punished. they— the rule, if you don't get punished. they are _ the rule, if you don't get punished. they are different from the principle —based set of guidance, which _ principle —based set of guidance, which are — principle —based set of guidance, which are more flexible. having down the road _ which are more flexible. having down the road pretty heavily of a rule—based approach, when you get a breach— rule—based approach, when you get a breach of— rule—based approach, when you get a breach of it _ rule—based approach, when you get a breach of it you can't wriggle and worm, _ breach of it you can't wriggle and worm, you — breach of it you can't wriggle and worm, you have to say hands up. it's quite _ worm, you have to say hands up. it's quite a _ worm, you have to say hands up. it's quite a profound issue about how you set up _ quite a profound issue about how you set up your— quite a profound issue about how you set up your framework, your approach and what _ set up your framework, your approach and what it— set up your framework, your approach and what it means and what you're saying _ and what it means and what you're saying to _ and what it means and what you're saying to the public in terms of affecting — saying to the public in terms of affecting behaviour. and saying to the public in terms of affecting behaviour.— affecting behaviour. and it undermines _ affecting behaviour. and it undermines public - affecting behaviour. and it - undermines public confidence. it blows a hole in it if you break the rule and — blows a hole in it if you break the rule and then try and wriggle out of it. ., , . ., , ., it. the next topic relates to the work ou it. the next topic relates to the work you did — it. the next topic relates to the work you did for _ it. the next topic relates to the work you did for the _ it. the next topic relates to the | work you did for the department it. the next topic relates to the - work you did for the department of health and social care, a study between late spring and autumn 2020 and to the public�*s understanding and to the public�*s understanding and compliance on social distancing guidelines. he looked at local alerts levels and whether people understood the level of alert in their area, that's tier 1, tier 2, tier 3. and the outcome of that report, what did that reveal? the ublic report, what did that reveal? the public were _ report, what did that reveal? the public were very confused. the rules were getting more complicated, they were getting more complicated, they were struggling to remember what they were, they might not know which tier they— they were, they might not know which tier they are _ they were, they might not know which tier they are in. they were, they might not know which tierthey are in. and they were, they might not know which tier they are in. and so we were testing — tier they are in. and so we were testing it — tier they are in. and so we were testing it periodically and many of the public— testing it periodically and many of the public didn't really understand the public didn't really understand the rules — the public didn't really understand the rules. this in some ways got worse _ the rules. this in some ways got worse and — the rules. this in some ways got worse and worse. it relates to the issue _ worse and worse. it relates to the issue of— worse and worse. it relates to the issue of rule versus principle. if you're _ issue of rule versus principle. if you're going down the rule—based approach. — you're going down the rule—based approach, there are all kinds of questions — approach, there are all kinds of questions about can i go out, can i meet _ questions about can i go out, can i meet people in the garden, can i share _ meet people in the garden, can i share a _ meet people in the garden, can i share a car— meet people in the garden, can i share a car with someone? a lot of rules— share a car with someone? a lot of rules to _ share a car with someone? a lot of rules to remember. as opposed to some _ rules to remember. as opposed to some of— rules to remember. as opposed to some of the countries had gone down the principle —based approach. so the principle —based approach. so the japanese would be an obvious example. — the japanese would be an obvious example, avoid crowded areas, etc. so it gives _ example, avoid crowded areas, etc. so it gives you a general sense of what's _ so it gives you a general sense of what's dangerous and it's for you to interpret _ what's dangerous and it's for you to interret. �* . what's dangerous and it's for you to interret. �*, ,., , what's dangerous and it's for you to interret. fl ,. , . ,, interpret. let's pause there. thank ou. finally, you deal with a number of programmes on your statement and their behavioural effect. you talk about the stay alert programme and you say this. arguably the uk tried to have its cake and eat it and sometimes ended up with neither. stay alert was an example of this. why was the stay alert programme, briefly, so bad in your view? it tells you to worry and doesn't tell you what — tells you to worry and doesn't tell you what to do. the worst combination. is that short enough? it's combination. is that short enough? it's very— combination. is that short enough? it's very short, very good. thank you. very helpful, thank you. the next programme was eat out to help out and again, you've done work in relation to that in parallel and is it a case that the research you did was that covid secure premises was more evidence—based approach which would encourage behaviours? that probably is a very simple summary for a complex study. that probably is a very simple summary for a complex study.— for a complex study. that is correct- _ for a complex study. that is correct. from _ for a complex study. that is correct. from memory- for a complex study. that is correct. from memory i - for a complex study. that is i correct. from memory i think for a complex study. that is - correct. from memory i think we did the study— correct. from memory i think we did the study again using this experimental approach. the study again using this experimentalapproach. so the study again using this experimental approach. so maybe it's helpful— experimental approach. so maybe it's helpful to _ experimental approach. so maybe it's helpful to explain it again. we would — helpful to explain it again. we would show several thousand people, we would _ would show several thousand people, we would ask them, thinking of a restaurant — we would ask them, thinking of a restaurant you liked, would you go back there? but what we're doing is showing _ back there? but what we're doing is showing different people at different variation. so sometimes you would — different variation. so sometimes you would see, here is your favourite _ you would see, here is your favourite restaurant and there is a picture _ favourite restaurant and there is a picture of— favourite restaurant and there is a picture of the waiter with nothing on their— picture of the waiter with nothing on their face but other groups would see the _ on their face but other groups would see the weight with a mask. or with a covid _ see the weight with a mask. or with a covid secure. and we would also ask them, — a covid secure. and we would also ask them, if— a covid secure. and we would also ask them, if we paid you £10 or whatever, — ask them, if we paid you £10 or whatever, so we are setting up different — whatever, so we are setting up different conditions to try and work out how— different conditions to try and work out how it — different conditions to try and work out how it would influence on's intention— out how it would influence on's intention to go there. very clear result~ _ intention to go there. very clear result~ that— intention to go there. very clear result. that people were very strongly— result. that people were very strongly influenced by anything that you might call covid secure. the mask, _ you might call covid secure. the mask, the — you might call covid secure. the mask, the safety, this is the rules for the _ mask, the safety, this is the rules for the restaurant. 20 percentage points— for the restaurant. 20 percentage points more likely to go there. in contrast, — points more likely to go there. in contrast, paying people was quite a small— contrast, paying people was quite a small effect. i think six percentage points _ small effect. i think six percentage points so — small effect. i think six percentage points. so a very powerful result because — points. so a very powerful result because it — points. so a very powerful result because it tells you that if you get that covid — because it tells you that if you get that covid secure system in place not only— that covid secure system in place not only would people be more confident— not only would people be more confident to go out, it's also reinforcing good practice of covid secure _ reinforcing good practice of covid secure environments. but if you are a bunch of 21—year—olds, you might not care so much _ 21—year—olds, you might not care so much and _ 21—year—olds, you might not care so much and you — 21—year—olds, you might not care so much and you would go as it were for a less— much and you would go as it were for a less secure — much and you would go as it were for a less secure environment.— a less secure environment. thank ou. so a less secure environment. thank you- so in — a less secure environment. thank you. so in relation _ a less secure environment. thank you. so in relation to _ a less secure environment. thank you. so in relation to this - you. so in relation to this financially cheaper and with less risk of transmission if you went down the covid secure route.