geopolitical tensions and how it could drive up prices for all, especially poorer countries. we've cut our forecast down from 1.7% in april, cut it down to 0.8%. we have already said risks were the downside when we made this earlierforecast, so down by almost one percentage point. there are number of factors, the continuing crisis in the world that we see and now of course we have the crisis in the middle east. we have the slowdown in growth in china, we also have high interest rates that have continued. we see weak demand across the board in most sectors and most geographies. that's why we cut the forecast. how much of this is actual policy? we're hearing from the west this idea of nearshoring, friendshoring, rebuilding supply chains away from east asia. how much of this is here to stay and how much of a problem is that? we saw there is more trade ongoing now within politically similar blocks number than between blocks that are dissimilar. that is some indication. we look at certain sectors and we begin to see emerging signs of fragmentation. we hope this will not go too far because we showed that the cost of fragmentation in world trade will be very costly. at the wto we've already let it be known that from our work and simulations we would lose fiver percentage points of global gdp in the long term. there will be double—digit welfare losses for poor countries and emerging markets. and it is because things will become more expensive? absolutely. if you have truncated trade, the world is predicated on free—flowing trade based on rules. if you have fragmented trade it becomes more costly, more inefficient and poor countries lose out. let's not overgeneralise to the point where we're trying to re—share everything to ourselves or nearshore to our friends because that will be more costly in the long run. i fear you've lost the argument with the g7 big nations, they've already decided they want their supply chains closer to home. they can't rely not just on china and some say we can't rely on korea or taiwan or... i disagree. i don't think we've lost the argument. i think in certain sectors, yes, absolutely. tech sector, semiconductors but remember those are two sectors and the overall goods trade is still happening 75% so i don't think we quite lost there. that is the head of the world trade organisation on china's slowing economy. we will have trade data from september, closely watched for indications of recovering in the world's second—largest economy. stock markets in hong kong and shanghai rose thursday after a chinese sovereign wealth fund increased its stakes hit four of the country's largest base. the purchases would have cost more than $65 million stop the fund plans to further increase its holdings in the banks the next six months according to regulatory filing. moving on to the slump in personal computer sales over the the past two years. but that could soon come to an end, according to the tech research firm gartner which is forecasting a rebound of shipments in the final quarter of this year. that would be an increase from the 9% drop in thejune to september quarter of this year — that's the preliminary analysis, according to gartner. but hp was the exception — staying resilient in the third quarter. but the firm's director analyst mikako kitagawa says growing geopolitical tensions could impact the industry. right now there are a lot of uncertainties and also the potential risk of geopolitical situation which will affect the global economy. but we do not think that that itself will immediately affect the pc demand. let's go further. artificial intelligence has been the theme across sectors. how do you see that playing a role when it comes to pc demand? the bottom line is we do not think that al is not going to increase the additional demand. ai is coming to pcs but the big question is that, our concern in the business is going to buy pcs because ai is in it? the answer is no, but that maybe some people got really excited and then buy it. and some people can see the benefit. but i really don't think that because of the ai in pcs then they are going to shorten their life cycle. for instance, if pcs are only three or two years old, you can still use it. but ai pcs coming into the market, are you going to buy it? probably not. that's really a bottom line for us. let's go to the united states, where ford motor company said it is at the limit of what it can offer the united auto workers union. the comment comes after the union unexpectedly walked out of the car maker's highly profitable suv and pick—up truck plant in kentucky. and as the industrial action is in its fourth week. the bbc�*s north america business correspondent michelle fleury reports. a stark warning from a senior ford official during a call with investors, the president saying the car—maker cannot afford to improve its offer without damaging its future. we're at the limit. going further will hurt our ability to invest in the business like we need to invest. his comments come a day after the uaw unexpectedly launched a strike at ford's kentucky truck plant. the car maker's largest plant of the world and its most profitable. generating $25 billion in revenue, about a sixth of its global revenue. we're quite surprised at the escalation. we made an outstanding offer — it's great wages, great benefits, we've been bargaining in good faith. in the past few days ford said it had been negotiating potential options for future battery plant workers. electric vehicle battery plants, you may recall, have been a major point of contention for the union. it is bargaining with the three major automakers, stellantis, gm and ford. with interest rates still high in the united states the big economic question has been can the world's largest economy avoid a recession? well, one man who thinks one is on the way and sooner than you might think. speaking to the bbc�*s talking business weekly, billionaire property developer rick caruso thinks that interest rates and new uncertainty over the conflict in the middle east mean a recession could be inevitable. i don't think there's a way to avoid a recession. i just don't think there is. with the height of the interest rates that we have right now and the fact that we still have a strong economy, we still have the consumer spending, the fed is going to have to continue to put more pressure. my fear is they've gone so big, so far, we haven't felt the full effects. but what i'm seeing of fellow chairmen, ceos of companies and executives, everybody is pulling back, that i know of. and that's going to cause some level of a recession, in my opinion. i don't think it's going to be deep. i think it's going to be minor. i think we will get through it. i don't see how were going to avoid it unless the fed starts pivoting and dropping rates but they won't drop rates until they see some level of a recession and cost of goods actually going down. it's going to be a bit of a self—fulfilling prophecy, i think. when is it coming? when do you think a recession would hit? again, i wish i had a crystal ball because if i did i wouldn't have to go to work. i think it's probably first quarter. i would say it's the beginning of next year. and tojust throw a current topic in the mix on this, what's happening in the middle east right now with israel, that is going to have an impact on all of this. and the fed and the equivalent in england and all around the world is going to meet today saying, how is this impacting the economy, how is it impacting rates, how will it impact the public markets, how will it impact the bond market? there's a lot of unknowns now. and unknowns never help the market. and unknowns never help corporations. and that will give a little bit more fuel to everybody being more cautious until people understand the impact at what's going on in israel. and i don't think we're going to understand that for quite some time, unfortunately. but the conflict in the middle east in the primary concern across all sectors, as you had. catch more of the entire interview interviews with zoom, among others, but why companies are asking workers to return to the office on this week's programme right here on the bbc news channel. that's all we have here on this edition of asia business report. thank you for watching and get all updates on the bbc news website. have a great weekend! in an up cycling shop in headingley, a transformation is under way. she using her skill and creativity to help solve the shameful problem. along with her partner james, the couple are trying to make fashion more sustainable, starting on their own doorstep. who could forget these shocking images of the tents and camping equipment left behind after leeds festival? hundreds of items treated as disposable and destined for landfill. it was grim, to be honest. a lot of people have a throwaway mindset, but tents are not single use. they are very durable fabric which could be used again and again. when i sawjust how much stuff had been left behind, it was really shocking. along with other charities and up—cyclers, james retreated tents and sleeping bags to make it into something new. we got a laptop case, a bum bag, we got this festival bag, supposed to be worn over your shoulder like that. it's an interesting and exciting opportunity because we've never worked with that material before and we got a lot with cotton and silk because that's usually the secondhand material we find and reuse, so i find the whole experimentation process very interesting. voice-over: for more - stories from across the uk, head to the bbc news website. hey, i'mjulia with the catch up. tonight — the latest in the middle east and a warning about vapes, and the eras movie premiere. but first, it's a kill or be killed mentality. that's how one anti—knife campaigner in the west midlands put it. malachi says kids as young as nine are carrying knives because they're scared of being attacked. the west midlands police area has the highest knife crime rate in england and the number of under—18s arrested has gone up by 56% since 2019. young kids aged nine, ten, 11, i2 shouldn't be saying kill or be killed. it's not a movie. malachi says knives are often glamorised, but he and others are working to change things. some other stories now — the government is arranging flights to get stranded britons out of israel as fighting continues. the first plane is leaving on thursday with more flights in the coming days if it's safe. a 12—year—old spent four days in a coma and suffered lung damage after vaping from the age of nine. the government is trying to stop kids getting vapes and sarah is warning others not to use them. right before going to bed, the first thing i'd do is take a drop of my vape and then put it on the pillow and then go to sleep. and the red carpet has been rolled out for taylor swift's era tour movie premiere. even beyonce came to support. it's already made more than $100 million in advance ticket sales, making it the biggest concert film of all time. and we'll leave you with ten seconds of tiny art. ben wilson, aka the chewing gum man, has been painting art onto little bits of gum on london's millennium bridge for a decade, but new cleaning plans mean it will soon be blasted off. you're all caught up now. have a good night. hello, i'm mark edwards, welcome to sportsday. here is what we've got coming up on the show: spain spoil the scottish celebrations in seville — a win for the hosts means scotland still not totally assured euro 2024 qualification. it's a record breaking defeat as south africa trounce australia. their woeful world cup still without a win. as wales name their team, we look ahead to the tantalising quarter final ties this weekend at the rugby world cup. hello and thanks for joining us on sportday. we start in seville as scotland's bid to become the first side to qualify for euro 2024 was stopped short by spain, the hosts winning 2—0 on a controversial night.

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