we've got our forecast down from 1.7% in april, down to zero point a present. we have already said risks were the downside when we made this forecast was up is down by almost one percentage point. there are number of factors, the continuing crisis in the world that we see and now of course we have the crisis in the middle east. we have the slowdown in growth in china, we also have high interest rates that have continued. we see weak demand across the board for them in most sectors in most geographies. that's why we cut the forecast.— cut the forecast. how much of this is actual _ cut the forecast. how much of this is actual policy? - cut the forecast. how much of this is actual policy? we're . this is actual policy? we're hearing from the west this idea of nearshore income of french or income of rebuilding supply chain away from east asia for the —— friend sharing. how much of this is here to stay and how much of a problem is that? we saw there _ much of a problem is that? we saw there is — much of a problem is that? - saw there is more to it ongoing now within political soul molar blocks number between locks that are dissimilar. that is some indication. we look at certain sectors and we begin to see emerging signs of fragmentation. we hope this will not go too far for that we showed that the cost of fragmentation in world trade will be very costly. we've already let it be known that from our work in simulations we would lose 5% points of global gdp in the long term. there will be double digit welfare losses for poor countries and emerging markets. find losses for poor countries and emerging markets.— emerging markets. and it is because things _ emerging markets. and it is because things will - emerging markets. and it is because things will become | emerging markets. and it is- because things will become more expensive? because things will become more “pensive?— expensive? absolutely. if you have truncated _ expensive? absolutely. if you have truncated trade, - expensive? absolutely. if you have truncated trade, the - expensive? absolutely. if you l have truncated trade, the world is predicated on free—flowing trade based on rules. if you have fragmented trade it becomes more costly, more inefficient and poor countries lose out. let's not overgeneralize to the point we're trying to re—share everything to ourselves or nearshore our friends because that will be more costly in the long run. i that will be more costly in the lona run. that will be more costly in the long run-— long run. i feelyou've lost the argument _ long run. i feelyou've lost the argument with - long run. i feelyou've lost the argument with the - long run. i feelyou've lost the argument with the big | the argument with the big nations, they've already decided they want their supply chains closer to home. they can't rely on china and some say we can't rely on korea or taiwan or... i say we can't rely on korea or taiwan or. . ._ taiwan or... idisagree. i don't think— taiwan or... idisagree. i don't think we've - taiwan or... i disagree. i don't think we've lost - taiwan or... i disagree. i | don't think we've lost the argument. i think in certain sectors, yes, absolutely. tech sector, semiconductors remember those are two sectors with the overall goods trade is still happening seven 25% i don't think we quite lost there. moving on to the slump in personal computer sales over the the past two years. but that could soon come to an end, according to the tech research firm gartner which is forecasting a rebound of shipments in the final quarter of this year. that would be an increase from the 9% drop in thejune to september quarter of this year — that's the preliminary analysis. but hp was the exception — staying resilient in the third quarter. but the firm's director analyst mikako kitagawa says growing geopolitical tensions could impact the industry. right now there are a lot of uncertainties and also the potential risk of geopolitical situation will affect the global economy. we do not think that itself will immediately affect the pc demand. artificial intelligence has been the theme across sectors how do you see that when it comes to pc demand? the bottom line is we do _ comes to pc demand? the bottom line is we do not _ comes to pc demand? the bottom line is we do not think _ comes to pc demand? the bottom line is we do not think that - comes to pc demand? the bottom line is we do not think that al - line is we do not think that al is not going to increase the additional demand. it's coming through their pc but the big question is that our concern in the business is going to buy pcs because ai is in it. the answer is, no but that may be some people got really excited and then buy it. and some people can see the benefit. i really don't think that because of the ai in pcs then they are going to shorten their life cycle for instance, if pcs are only three or two years old you can still use it. but ai pcs coming into the market, are you going to buy a? probably not. that's really a bottom line for us. let's go to the united states, where ford motor company said "it is at the limit" of what it can offer the united auto workers union. the comment comes after the union unexpectedly walked out of the car—makers highly profitable suv and pick—up truck plant in kentucky and as the industrial action is in its fourth week. the bbc�*s north america business correspondent michelle fleury reports. a stark warning from a senior ford official during a cup with investors at the car—maker cannot afford to improve its offer without damaging its future. ~ �* ., future. we're at the limit. goina future. we're at the limit. going further— future. we're at the limit. going further will- future. we're at the limit. going further will hurt - future. we're at the limit. going further will hurt ouri going further will hurt our ability to invest in business like we need to invest. his comments _ like we need to invest. his comments come _ like we need to invest. his comments come a - like we need to invest. his comments come a day after the uaw unexpectedly launched a strike at ford's kentucky truck plant. the carpet makers largest plant of the world and its most profitable. generating $25 billion in revenue, about a sixth of its global revenue. we're quite surprised at the escalation. we made an outstanding offer, its great wages, great benefits, we've been bargaining in good faith. in the past few days ford said it had been negotiating potential options for future battery plant workers. electric vehicle battery plants you may recall have been a major point of contention for the union. in bargaining with the three union storages, atlanta and ford. with interest rates still high in the united states the big economic question has been can the world's largest economy avoid a recession? well, one man who thinks one is on the way and sooner than you might think. speaking to the bbc�*s talking business weekly, billionaire property developer rick caruso thinks that interest rates and new uncertainty over the conflict in the middle east mean a recession could be inevitable. i don't think there's a way to avoid a recession. ijust don't think there is. with the height of the interest rates that we have right now and the fact that we still have a strong economy, we still have a consumer spending the fed is going to have to continue to put more pressure. my fear is they've gone so big, so far we haven't felt the full effects. what i'm seeing of fellow chairman, ceos of companies and executives, everybody is pulling back that i know of. and that's going to cause some level of a recession in my opinion. i don't think it's going to be deep. i think it's pretty minor. i think we will get through it. i don't see how were going to avoid it unless the fed starts pivoting and dropping rates but the knocking to drop rates until they see some level of a recession and cost of goods actually going down. it's going to be a bit of a self—fulfilling prophecy, i think. a self-fulfilling prophecy, i think. , _, think. or, when is it coming? when do _ think. or, when is it coming? when do you _ think. or, when is it coming? when do you think _ think. or, when is it coming? when do you think a - think. or, when is it coming? | when do you think a recession would hit? i when do you think a recession would hit?— would hit? i wish i had a c stal would hit? i wish i had a crystal ball— would hit? i wish i had a crystal ball because - would hit? i wish i had a crystal ball because i - would hit? i wish i had a - crystal ball because i wouldn't have to go to work. i think it's probably first quarter. i would say it's the beginning of next year. and to just so a current topic in the mix on this, what's happening in the middle east right now with israel, that is going to have an impact on all of this. in the fed and the equivalent in england and all around the world is got to be reading today saying, how is this impacting the economy, how is it impacting rates, how's it can impact the public market, has a good impact the bond market? there's a lot of unknowns they now. and unknowns never help the market. and unknowns never help corporations. and that will give a little bit more fuel to everybody being more cautious until people understand the impact it what's going on in israel. and i don't think were going to understand that for quite some time, unfortunately. the conflict unfolding in the middle east is concerned across all sectors, were also keeping all sectors, were also keeping a close watch on the oil markets as the death toll rises in both israel and gaza for the prices made early gains on thursday but these were reversed after us government showed their crude inventories rose by 10.2 million barrels in the last week. that was much higher than a 500 thousand barrel rise that analysts expected. this is where markets ended up. brent closed 18 cents higher at $86 per barrel, while us west texas intermediate crude lost 58 cents to under $83 a barrel. will put up those figures later. while us west texas intermediate crude lost 58 cents to under $83 a barrel. that's all we have for you on asia business report. thanks for watching. in an upcycling shop in headingley, a transformation is under way. josephine wagner is using her skill and creativity to help solve a shameful problem. along with her partnerjames, the couple are trying to make fashion more sustainable, starting on their own doorstep. who could forget these shocking images of the tents and camping equipment left behind after leeds festival? hundreds of items treated as disposable and destined for landfill. it was grim, to be honest. but tents on single use, the very durable fabric that can be used again and again. and when i sawjust how much stuff had been left behind, it was really shocking. along with other charities and up cyclers, james retrieved tents and sleeping bags to make into something new. so we've got a laptop case, a bum bag. we've got this what we call the festival bag. it's supposed to be made one over your shoulder like that. it's an interesting, exciting opportunity for us because we've not worked with that kind of material before. i've worked a lot with cotton and silk in the past because that's usually the second hand material we find and reuse. so i find the whole experimentation process of it very interesting. for more stories from across the uk, head to the bbc news website. hey, i'mjulia with the catch up. tonight — the latest in the middle east are warning about vapes and the era's movie premiere. but first, it's a kill or be killed mentality. that's how one anti knife campaigner in the west midlands put it. malachi says kids as young as nine are carrying knives because they're scared of being attacked. the west midlands police area has the highest knife crime rate in england and the number of under 18 arrested has gone up by 56% since 2019. young kids age nine, ten, 11, 12 shouldn't be saying kill or be killed. it's not a movie. malachi says knives are often glamorised, but he and others are working to change things. some other stories now — the government is arranging flights to get stranded britons out of israel as fighting continues. the first plane is leaving on thursday with more flights in the coming days if it's safe. a 12—year—old spent four days in a coma and suffered lung damage after vaping from the age of nine. the government is trying to stop kids getting vapes and sarah is warning others not to use them right right before going to bed. the first thing i'd do is take a drop of my cough and then put it on the pill and then go to sleep. and the red carpet has been rolled out for taylor swift's era tour movie premiere. even beyonce came to support. it's already made more than $100 million in advance ticket sales, making it the biggest concert film of all time. and will leave you with ten seconds of tiny art. ben wilson, aka the chewing gum man, has been painting art onto little bits of gum on london's millennium bridge for a decade, but new cleaning plans mean it will soon be blasted off. you're all caught up now. have a good night. hello there. welcome to sports day with me, will perry. coming upforyou, a rohit sharma record breaking century fires india to victory of afghanistan at the cricket world cup. wayne's world at st andrew's as rooney hopes to take birmingham city to the next level. and wales cruised past gibraltar in a friendly with a debut for son of a familiar welsh face. welcome along. rohit sharma's record breaking century fired india to an eight wicket victory over afghanistan at the cricket world cup.

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