international monetary fund's chief economist pierre—olivier gourinchas. the imf and the world bank are having their annual meeting in marrakech and later today, finance ministers from the 620 and central bank governors will be meeting to discuss the health of the global economy. according to the imf, global growth remains dampened by supply chain disruptions linked to the covid—19 pandemic and russia's war in ukraine, persistently high inflation, and spiralling borrowing costs. here's our economics editor faisal islam. the message from the imf for the 190 finance ministers and central governor business in marrakesh is that the world economy they hope had turned a corner after three years of rolling your clinical crisis. well, it is limping forward rather than sprinting forward now with —— —— geopolitical crisis. slowdowns in very specific countries like china that they had not expected. there is an additional worry about this new higher for longer interest rate world that might affect the banking system. 5% of the world's banks, they said could be in stress if interest rates continue at these higher levels for much longer. it is also affecting the economies of the g7. the uk for example impacted for higher rates for longer as it tries to deal with higher inflation rates and that is going to on the economy for some time to come according to the chief economist of the imf. in general, they are trying to deal with the dark clouds of these three years of global crisis. the poly crisis, as they call it here and we just have another one of course emerging in gaza and in israel. concern there is about rising oil prices. gas prices as well going up in europe after the sabotage of a finnish pipeline. just when we thought that we were emerging from the pandemic and the ukraine crisis, more on the horizon casting that shadow over the global economy. faisal islam there. well let's unpack this further with simon french — chief economist at panmure gordon. it all sounds so pessimistic. just when we thought things might be improving. your thoughts? i might be improving. your thoughts?— thoughts? i think it is probably _ thoughts? i think it is probably the - thoughts? ithink it is probably the correct l probably the correct interpretation. there are now two wars on. the global level of two high—profile wars, the impact as i think faisal islam alluded to of interest rates, has not been fully felt. we know in economics terms, the transmission —— transition through to households and businesses takes time but with major economy interest rates in the us and the uk above 5%, in the us and the uk above 5%, in the eurozone 4%, those are difficult backdrops for businesses to refinance of the households to refinance, so i don't think it is any particular surprise that global growth is slow and sluggish. it is weather of course the famed hard landing of the recessionary outcome that is on the horizon. the imf is not saying that but whenever you are in a low growth horizon it doesn't take much to tip you over the edge. 50 doesn't take much to tip you over the edge.— doesn't take much to tip you over the edge. so we have to bear in mind _ over the edge. so we have to bear in mind that _ over the edge. so we have to bear in mind that when - over the edge. so we have to bear in mind that when they. over the edge. so we have to i bear in mind that when they put this report together, the situation in israel and gaza hadn't actually kicked off. that's right but also, even if it had kicked off a couple of days before they close their forecasts, very difficult. however, somebody talk at a press conference to know the long—term impact on product markets, on confidence, but also on diversion of military resources. there is a lot of moving parts here. it will take weeks comment may months, to understand the economic impact of all this. but you are absolutely right. if you are putting together a balance sheet of positives and negatives, the global economy certainly sits on the negative column. �* , ., column. and in terms of the hiuh column. and in terms of the high cost — column. and in terms of the high cost of _ column. and in terms of the high cost of borrowing - column. and in terms of the j high cost of borrowing which column. and in terms of the i high cost of borrowing which of course is being felt by everybody, whether it be households, businesses and governments, gets extremely expensive at the moment. the imf was clear that is going to be the status quo for some time and therefore that will keep global growth deflated, won't it? it global growth deflated, won't it? , ., , it? it is. something that makes some have _ it? it is. something that makes some have a — it? it is. something that makes some have a report— it? it is. something that makes some have a report out - it? it is. something that makes some have a report out this - some have a report out this morning looking at the amount of sovereign debt. debt issued by major governments around the world, is going to be refinanced over the next three years. 2024 through 2026. the world's biggest economy, the us, with the biggest and deepest debt market, the us treasuries, as to refinance about 40% of its debt. if it is refinancing it at 5% and long bond yields have been moving even higher in the run—up to this meeting, then that is a real problem. that is money coming out of the us exchequer that it otherwise wants to spend on inflationary and all the us economy. but also for households, it translates through to mortgages. yes, it is going to be a long—term impact of refinancing at rates because that is the legacy of having the 15 years of very low interest rates. we having the 15 years of very low interest rates.— having the 15 years of very low interest rates. we have all got used to that — interest rates. we have all got used to that and _ interest rates. we have all got used to that and we _ interest rates. we have all got used to that and we have - interest rates. we have all got used to that and we have all. used to that and we have all love that while it lasted. thank you very much, simon french. let's focus on the uk eocnomy and uncertainty over the economic outlook as well as rising costs are continuing to affect staff recruitment, according to new research out today. the recruitment and employment confederation and kpmg found the number of permanent placements by recruiters fell in recent weeks as companies were reluctant to commit to hiring new workers. this comes as the imf forecast the uk will have the highest inflation and slowest growth next year of any g7 economy, falling behind the us, france, germany, canada, italy and japan. live now to tom stevenson, investment director at fidelity. good morning to you, tom. if i was running a business right now, i would think twice before i hire someone on a permanent basis, wouldn't you? absolutely ou basis, wouldn't you? absolutely you would _ basis, wouldn't you? absolutely you would and _ basis, wouldn't you? absolutely you would and it _ basis, wouldn't you? absolutely you would and it follows - basis, wouldn't you? absolutely you would and it follows on - you would and it follows on neatly from what simon was just saying about companies having to refinance their debts at much higher rates and that is giving them pause for thought when it comes to employing people. and these latest figures that you mentioned there are really very clear that the slowdown in hiring, it continues. there are really four elements here. the slowdown in the number of vacancies, a slowdown in the number of actual appointments. what we are also seeing is more people available for work and thatis people available for work and that is because redundancies are rising to more people are out there in the market trying to get anotherjob. and then thatis to get anotherjob. and then that is naturally feeding through, finally, to a slight slowdown. it is only a slight slowdown. it is only a slight slowdown in the rate of pay growth at the moment so overall, yes, quite a slowdown in the jobs market. overall, yes, quite a slowdown in thejobs market. find overall, yes, quite a slowdown in the jobs market.— in the “obs market. and your take in the jobs market. and your take on what _ in the jobs market. and your take on what the _ in the jobs market. and your take on what the imf - in the jobs market. and your take on what the imf is - in the jobs market. and your i take on what the imf is saying that the us —— take on what the imf is saying that the us -- uk take on what the imf is saying that the us —— uk economy. they are predicting it will peak at 6% in the uk and then stay high for at least five years, up to 2028? , ~ , a, , 2028? yes, the imf is actually sli . htl 2028? yes, the imf is actually slightly reined _ 2028? yes, the imf is actually slightly reined in _ 2028? yes, the imf is actually slightly reined in its _ slightly reined in its projection for uk interest rates. i think they're now looking for 5.5% so just another quarter point rise. what they are saying is we probably haven't quite finished yet and the job is probably haven't quite finished yet and thejob is not probably haven't quite finished yet and the job is not yet done on inflation because inflation is higher here in the uk and it is higher here in the uk and it is in the rest of the world. on the other side of the equation, growth, though, is at least positive. in germany, for example, we are looking at a contraction in growth this year. what we're saying in the uk is they will be growth, albeit modest growth, but this year and next year. it is a bad combination, it is the thing we've talked about many times before, stagflation. tam we've talked about many times before, stagflation.— before, stagflation. tom from fidelity there. _ the founder of bankrupt crypto exchange ftx sam bankman—fried faced his ex—girlfriend in court on tuesday. caroline ellison was testifying against the former crypto billionaire, who is on trial accused of stealing billions from customers. here's our north america correspondent erin delmore. the government is calling at least three key witnesses in this case but caroline ellison is their store. she is the former ceo of alameda research. the crypto hedge fund and aspect founded by sam bankman—fried. she has pleaded guilty and is cooperating with prosecutors. sam bankman—fried is being tried on fraud. he has pleaded not guilty. and the two were close. having dated off and on over a couple of years and on over a couple of years and having lived together in a penthouse in the bahamas with other executives from both companies. but after arriving in court on tuesday, she was asked to look out into the courtroom and point mr bankman freed, and she couldn't immediately recognise him. she took more than ten seconds to stand, look, turn, crane her head, before finally identifying mr bankman freed in a suit. she described feeling differential to mr sam bankman—fried. she felt awkward both because she was dating her boss and because she felt neglected in their personal relationship. she also said she ran all major decisions by him. when asked, did you commit any crimes while at the company, she answered yes, we did, including sam bankman—fried. their testimony squarely put mr bankman freed in the decision maker's chair. she will be back on the stand on wednesday. aaron delmore there who is keeping a that case for us in new york. let's get some of the day's other news now. the european union has written a strongly—worded letter to elon musk, the owner of x — formerly twitter — warning him that the platform is being used to disseminate illegal content and information after the hamas attack on israel. the single market commissioner, thierry breton, also wrote that despite warnings, violent content, and false information, hadn't been removed from x. mr musk, responded that the company's safety team has taken action and removed certain accounts. all flights have been suspended until wednesday afternoon at one of england's busiest airports after a fire caused the partial collapse of a multi—storey car park. an eyewitness at luton airport, north of london, reported hearing loud explosions from cars going up in flames and said the fire took hold at "incredible" speed. still to come — how a once uncool orthopaedic shoe brand — is now worth billions. around the world and across the uk. this is bbc news. as fully trained beekeepers these primary school children are getting out of the classroom and as close as they can to nature. their parents and children wanted them to learn firsthand about the great outdoors and the bout b's' vital place. i outdoors and the bout b's' vital place-— outdoors and the bout b's' vital place. outdoors and the bout b's' vital lace. . ., . ., vital place. i wanted to have a beehive and _ vital place. i wanted to have a beehive and then _ vital place. i wanted to have a beehive and then laurie - vital place. i wanted to have a beehive and then laurie or. vital place. i wanted to have a| beehive and then laurie orjoe from wharfedale bees said they would come along and train the children. the idea of actually allowing the children to do the beekeeping isjust allowing the children to do the beekeeping is just such a fantastic experience for them. b populations are said to be under pressure in parts of the world and the children also learning about their vital role as pollinators. if it learning about their vital role as pollinators.— as pollinators. if it wasn't for the bees _ as pollinators. if it wasn't for the bees we _ as pollinators. if it wasn't for the bees we wouldn'tl as pollinators. if it wasn't - for the bees we wouldn't have much food as we do and it is a case of looking after the ecosystem around the school. i wanted to volunteer and it is really — wanted to volunteer and it is really nice and i have tasted the honey and it tastes really nice~ — the honey and it tastes really nice~ it — the honey and it tastes really nice~ it is _ the honey and it tastes really nice. it is sweet.— nice. it is sweet. for more stories _ nice. it is sweet. for more stories from _ nice. it is sweet. for more stories from across - nice. it is sweet. for more stories from across the - nice. it is sweet. for more | stories from across the uk, head to the bbc news website. you're live with bbc news. russian president vladimir putin is hosting a conference on energy starting today in moscow. with the prime minister of iraq, have and share elsa dannl of iraq, have and share elsa danni, taking place in the plenary session. the aim is to discuss a strengthening of bilateral —— the aim is to discuss a stregnthening of bilateral co—operation around energy and oil between the two countries. let's speak to jonathan robinson, global power & energy research director at frost and sullivan. talking to about the bilateral talks first between putin and the leader of iraq. what are you expecting? the leader of iraq. what are you meeting?— you expecting? the two countries _ you expecting? the two countries do _ you expecting? the two| countries do collaborate together. russia is a key member of the opec plus group. really, one of the leading price setters. obviously iraq has been trying to increase its production in the past few years so yes, they will be trying to establish greater cooperation with the ultimate goal of keeping oil prices higherfor the coming months higher for the coming months and higherfor the coming months and years. higher for the coming months and years-_ higher for the coming months and years. interesting timing, obviously _ and years. interesting timing, obviously what _ and years. interesting timing, obviously what is _ and years. interesting timing, obviously what is given -- - obviously what is given —— given what is going on in israel and gaza and the concern about what that might mean going forward in terms of the middle east and other countries that could get involved, etc. your thoughts on that? volatility always increases the price of oil. there is always a reaction. it depends how things develop in the coming days and weeks but this should keep oil prices probably at the sort of levels we have seen there a few months ago so probably closer towards the $100 stop having said that of course, the global economy has some weaker points so we should stay reasonably in balance i should say across the winter. �* ., ,., ., winter. and from the point of view of president _ winter. and from the point of view of president putin, - winter. and from the point of view of president putin, a - winter. and from the point of view of president putin, a lotj view of president putin, a lot of people gathering at this event — some 4000 guests from 60 countries. what is he likely to be saying and how will he use this as a platform? for him it is a good _ use this as a platform? for him it is a good opportunity - use this as a platform? for him it is a good opportunity to - it is a good opportunity to show that he has got international connections. it is to again remind the global audience how important russia is to oil and gas supply and as i say a good chance for him to network between these people at this event, for sure. fiifi network between these people at this event, for sure.— this event, for sure. 0k, it will be interesting - this event, for sure. 0k, it will be interesting to - this event, for sure. 0k, it will be interesting to keep | this event, for sure. 0k, it i will be interesting to keep an eye on. thank you for your time, nathan robertson from frost and sullivan. —— jonathan. shares in samsung have been trading higher today despite the electronics giant reporting a 78% drop in third quarter profits. that's actually slightly better than the 80% fall that was expected, with the battered memory chip market showing early signs of recovering from a severe downturn. live now to our asia business reporter suranjana tewari. shares in samsung opening more than 3% higher in south korea off the back of the news and it is not often that an expected drop in profits, a drop of 78% would be celebrated. but this is the first sign we have had that the memory chip market may be exiting a severe downturn. investors were not expecting an 80% drop and the fact it wasn't that bad has some analysts saying that maybe memory chip prices have hit their lowest point in thejuly— september quarter and now the only way is up. it's estimated that samsung's operating profit fell by more than $6 billion in the third quarter compared to the same time last year. seems like a huge number but what is raising hopes is that profits in this quarter, just gone, were better than the first and second quarter of this year. samsung is the worlds largest memory chip and smart phone make up. so the results are seen as an indication of the direction of travel for the whole sector but industry watchers are saying the situation is still not great in the chip business. this slowdown is still on, higher interest rates are still happening, consumer demand for electronics, that use chips like laptops and iphones, so chipmakers are still cutting production. the next frontier is that ships are used in artificial intelligence. we are seeing the demand for that pickup, as are the prices, that is something samsung will be looking to take advantage of as well. south africa is grappling with an avian flu outbreak, which started in cape town in april. a different strain of the virus then quickly spread throughout the country, with only two provinces left unaffected. seven million chickens have been culled due to infection, resulting in massivejob losses and a huge loss of revenue. supplies of poultry meat have been threatened and supermarkets across the nation have run out of eggs. nomsa maseko reports from pietermaritzburg, south africa. an industry in distress. the devastating avian flu have been described as the worst outbreak in the last five years and has resulted in a massive loss of revenue. it has also affected the supply chain, leaving shop shelves empty. as a short—term measure, supermarkets have starting restricting the number of eggs customers can buy at any one time while others have completely run out.. experts are predicting a shortage of poultry products that will also affect the upcoming christmas period but it is all not doom and gloom because the industry is still producing eggs and meat. ~ ., is still producing eggs and meat. ~ . g; 11:11: , ., meat. we have 37,000 eggs and demand has _ meat. we have 37,000 eggs and demand has gone _ meat. we have 37,000 eggs and demand has gone way _ meat. we have 37,000 eggs and demand has gone way up - meat. we have 37,000 eggs and demand has gone way up for - meat. we have 37,000 eggs and demand has gone way up for us i demand has gone way up for us to maintain that.— to maintain that. this farm is one of the — to maintain that. this farm is one of the few _ to maintain that. this farm is one of the few unaffected - to maintain that. this farm is one of the few unaffected by| one of the few unaffected by the outbreak due to tight bio security controls. we the outbreak due to tight bio security controls.— security controls. we had to s - ra security controls. we had to spray houses _ security controls. we had to spray houses every - security controls. we had to spray houses every day, - security controls. we had to i spray houses every day, keep wild pigs away from the farms, keep training employees and tell them what to do, every time, every day.— tell them what to do, every time, every day. the government is working — time, every day. the government is working on _ time, every day. the government is working on expediting - is working on expediting approvals for vaccinations to avoid further impact such as job losses. but for bakers like this one, the problem is now. translation:— this one, the problem is now. translation: shortage of eggs and skyhigh _ translation: shortage of eggs and skyhigh prices _ translation: shortage of eggs and skyhigh prices is _ translation: shortage of eggs and skyhigh prices is hurting - and skyhigh prices is hurting my business. we're still recovering from covid—19. i have increase prices as well but i know i will lose clients if i do, my business will suffer. ~ . ., i, , ifi do, my business will suffer. . . ., i, , suffer. with analysts saying it can take up — suffer. with analysts saying it can take up to _ suffer. with analysts saying it can take up to six _ suffer. with analysts saying it can take up to six months - suffer. with analysts saying it can take up to six months to l can take up to six months to normalise the situation, small business owners are hoping plans by the industry to import powdered and liquid eggs will help ease the beating they have been taking as a result of the outbreak. now let's talk about shoes, because the iconic german footwear brand birkenstock, is set to make its debut on the new york stock exchange today. the initial public offering priced the shares at $46 each, valuing the company at roughly $8.6 billion, that's double what it was worth less than three years ago. described by some as the �*world's ugliest shoe,�* birkenstocks have become a global mega—brand and this year received a further boost when they were featured in the hit movie barbie. let's speak to marguerite le rolland, head of apparel and footwear at euromonitor international. good morning. there is such a lot of bars around birkenstocks now, tell us more?— now, tell us more? thank you for having _ now, tell us more? thank you for having me. _ now, tell us more? thank you for having me. i— now, tell us more? thank you for having me. i think - for having me. i think birkenstock are a very good value proposition, 250—year—old brand from germany, they have a reputation of crust mentorship —— — craftsmanship and designers, and you mentioned the sandals have had many nicknames over the years but they have also managed to raise they have also managed to raise the hype around the brand with his partnership that you mentioned with the barbie movie but they have also had collections, valentino, jill sanders are many other designers. they have really managed to elevate the brand and today we see that this is helping to value their brand really high on the ip offering. in terms of how much the companies up for grabs, birkenstock still have a majority stake, which is important, because many are worried what that will mean for this you brand, going forward? that is important. it is important for them to retain their identity because consumers appreciate the consistency of their design, of the quality, and that is something that the brand should retain in future. i think with the ipo the priority would be with the funds they rise is really about their international expansion, while keeping the identity and product designs consistent. they keep up the momentum because as we say, in the last year or so it is seen a massive boost in demand for the shoes, partly because of the barbie movie. i can they keep that going? movie. i can they keep that oiiin? movie. i can they keep that uroin? , ., movie. i can they keep that ioini? , ., , movie. i can they keep that ioiin? , ., , going? good question! they will have to ensure _ going? good question! they will have to ensure that _ going? good question! they will have to ensure that they - going? good question! they will have to ensure that they strike i have to ensure that they strike these partnerships and collaborations regularly as they have done in the past and always finding an interesting designer or movie to collaborate with but also i think the focus will be on their direct consumer channels, their direct consumer channels, their own stalls, this is something they have invested a lot in in the past few years and it is great to fill the brand hype and the engagement with the brand and they need to control the image and i think this is something they will happily invest in. their own stalls and their own e—commerce channels. d0 stalls and their own e-commerce channels. , ., ., ., stalls and their own e-commerce channels. ., ., stalls and their own e-commerce channels-_ i i channels. do you have a pair? i do! so do _ channels. do you have a pair? i do! so do |, _ channels. do you have a pair? i do! so do |, i— channels. do you have a pair? i do! so do i, i must— channels. do you have a pair? i do! so do i, i must confess. i do! so do i, i must confess. good to _ do! so do i, i must confess. good to talk _ do! so do i, i must confess. good to talk to _ do! so do i, i must confess. good to talk to you - do! so do i, i must confess. good to talk to you and - do! so do i, i must confess. good to talk to you and it i do! so do i, i must confess. i good to talk to you and it will be interesting to keep an eye on that, and he would have thought birkenstock on the new york stock exchange! this is gaza this morning, after a night a very intense airstrikes going on. we wanted to mention that securing direct flights to israel has been increasingly difficult with many airlines cancelling flights following the attack that took place on saturday. virgin is only operating one flight a day instead of two, british airways is lying one round trip, air france, lufthansa and emirates have suspended flights from israel into the united kingdom. this is gaza now. as the sun has fully risen now. we have covered the latest in terms of what is being said about the numbers, now that israel is saying that 1200 people have been killed since the war started. gaza, palestinian authorities are saying 900 have died in gaza. stay with us here on bbc news. we will bring you the very latest and we have a live page on the website. do you take a look. see you in a moment. hello there. so far this october, we've been building in some pretty big contrasts in terms of rainfall. parts of the south haven't even had a single drop of rain yet, whereas across northern scotland, aboyne in aberdeenshire, we've already had 113 millimetres of rain. that's already more than an average october. and of course, we're only a third of the way through the month. then we had these temperature contrasts on tuesday — 26 degrees in writtle near chelmsford in essex, just 13 in lerwick, behind a cold front across the far north of scotland. and over the next few days, as that cold front pushes its way gradually southwards, we are going to see those temperatures drop away. and certainly by the time we get to the weekend, we'll all be feeling as if autumn has firmly arrived. mind you, for some of us, the temperatures will be dropping as we look at the weather into wednesday. here's our cold front, bringing some rain southwards, clearing away from scotland and northern ireland, so the flood warnings continuing to fall here. but we've got the rain heading in across parts of england and wales. a mild start to the day on wednesday here. a much colder start, though, in scotland, with temperatures down into low single figures in the countryside. now, we've got this band of rain, this cold front, with us through the day on wednesday, some particularly heavy rain across the hills of mid wales. could bring one or two impacts here. some wet weather as well for the midlands and parts of east anglia for much of the day. to the south of our front, it's another warm day, with temperatures again reaching the 20s. otherwise, for scotland, northern ireland, northern england, those temperatures will be dropping away. and it will be blustery for the far north of scotland too, gusts reaching 60 miles/hour, driving in plenty of showers here. now, heading through wednesday night and into thursday, our weather front sinks across into southern parts of england. it's very weak by this stage, just a few patches of rain. temperatures for most of us much closer to the october average. we still have some heat hanging on across the very far south of england. and for a time on friday, we actually get a zone of warmer air pushing back northwards. but with that heavy rain for england and wales, scotland and northern ireland, a day of sunshine and blustery showers. so the cool weather continues across these northern areas. across the south, more of us will see temperatures climbing back into the high teens to low 20s. but that won't last. into the weekend, it will cool down properly, with temperatures around about 10 to 14 degrees. and for the mountains of northern scotland, on saturday, it'll be cold enough for a little bit of snow over the very mountain tops. that's the latest. good morning, welcome to breakfast withjon kay and sally nugent. our headlines today. siren wails. israel's defence minister says the military is preparing hamas fired more rockets into israel overnight, targeting the border city of ashkelon. israel's defence minister says the military is preparing for a full—scale offensive into gaza. palestinian health officials say at least 830 people have been killed in gaza — this footage released by the israeli military shows buildings reduced to rubble. flights at luton airport have been grounded after a fire rips through one of the car parks, causing it to collapse.