i don't know how you follow the double act of ian murray and jackie baillie. thank you for everything you brought to the campaign. delighted to be here. ijust want to echo some of what we said last night. this is a remarkable result. i want to talk a bit about the thousands of people we lead during this campaign. we have spent six months on every single story in this constituency, talking to voters at every single door about their hopes, their aspirations, their dreams, their aspirations, their dreams, their fears, their aspirations, their dreams, theirfears, their their aspirations, their dreams, their fears, their concerns for this community. it has been the honour of my life to talk to all those people, to get to know them. to find out from them what they want their mp to fight for an hour to be their mp, to have their chance to represent them is incredible. this result shows not only that people are fed up with the two governments that are distracted, out of touch, but also that they are ready for change. people wanted a fresh start. the number of doors i'd knocked on who is said to me, we need a fresh start. not me saying that to them, them saying that to us and clearly with this result, they have put their trust in labour to deliver that change. that is a huge responsibility for me as the mp for this area but it's also a huge opportunity for us because change now is possible everywhere in scotland and across the whole of the uk. , uk. cheering and that - uk. cheering | and that change uk. cheering - and that change is so uk. cheering _ and that change is so badly uk- cheering _ and that change is so badly needed because we have talked to so many people during this by—election who are struggling with the cost of living. who are struggling on an nhs what rating list, struggling to make ends meet. those are the people that i'm going to spend my time as their mp fighting for and i'm incredibly proud of the leadership of keir starmer across our party that finally have got us to a place where people put their trust in the labour party again. we demonstrated that last night and i know we will demonstrate that in the general election finally getting rid of this morally bankrupt conservative government. isl is i want to say thank you to everyone who has been part of this campaign. thank you to all the people who havejoined us campaign. thank you to all the people who have joined us at events up people who have joined us at events up and down this constituency, but thank you in particular to the thousands of people who voted for me, who put their trust in me, but also the 80,000 people of this constituency who i will represent if they voted for me or not. the change starts here but it doesn't end here. change is coming across the whole of the united kingdom and it is coming with keir starmer and as.— with keir starmer and as. friends, we made history — with keir starmer and as. friends, we made history last _ with keir starmer and as. friends, we made history last night - with keir starmer and as. friends, we made history last night in - we made history last night in rutherglen and hamilton west and we have changed the face of scottish politics — have changed the face of scottish politics. we have flipped scottish politics— politics. we have flipped scottish politics on its head and the people of rutherglen and hamilton west have sent a _ of rutherglen and hamilton west have sent a message to two failing governments that we want an end to the incompetence, an end to the chaos, _ the incompetence, an end to the chaos, an — the incompetence, an end to the chaos, an end to the division and instead _ chaos, an end to the division and instead we — chaos, an end to the division and instead we want a fresh start for scotland — instead we want a fresh start for scotland and change for every part of our _ scotland and change for every part of our community and we have done it by having _ of our community and we have done it by having an _ of our community and we have done it by having an historic election result, — by having an historic election result, with michael shanks as our fantastic— result, with michael shanks as our fantastic new scottish labour mp. cheering and applause i am so immensely proud of this campaign — campaign. but in truth, this is not a campaign. — but in truth, this is not a result that— but in truth, this is not a result that is— but in truth, this is not a result that is weeks or months in the making, — that is weeks or months in the making, it _ that is weeks or months in the making, it is years in the making. i reflect— making, it is years in the making. i reflect back — making, it is years in the making. i reflect back when i became leader two years — reflect back when i became leader two years ago, scottish labour was 32 points— two years ago, scottish labour was 32 points behind the snp in the bolls _ 32 points behind the snp in the polls. people were talking about scottish — polls. people were talking about scottish labour's survival, not its revivat _ scottish labour's survival, not its revivat and _ scottish labour's survival, not its revival. and two years on, we have gone _ revival. and two years on, we have gone from — revival. and two years on, we have gone from 32 — revival. and two years on, we have gone from 32 points behind the snp to winning _ gone from 32 points behind the snp to winning our first parliamentary by—election for over 12 years, from 32% deficit — by—election for over 12 years, from 32% deficit to being double the snp vote share in this constituency and over 20% — vote share in this constituency and over 20% swing, demonstrating that scotland _ over 20% swing, demonstrating that scotland will lead the way in delivering a uk good labour government.— delivering a uk good labour government. delivering a uk good labour covernment. , ~ , ~ ~ ,, but france, the change we have seen in scotland _ but france, the change we have seen in scotland would not have been possible — in scotland would not have been possible if over the last three years. — possible if over the last three years, keirstarmer possible if over the last three years, keir starmer hadn't worked to change _ years, keir starmer hadn't worked to change our— years, keir starmer hadn't worked to change our labour party. in a short space _ change our labour party. in a short space of— change our labour party. in a short space of time, we have gone from our worst— space of time, we have gone from our worst result _ space of time, we have gone from our worst result since the 1930s to now being _ worst result since the 1930s to now being seen— worst result since the 1930s to now being seen as a force that will finally— being seen as a force that will finally read our whole country of this rotten — finally read our whole country of this rotten tory government. he will be the _ this rotten tory government. he will be the man— this rotten tory government. he will be the man that leads that change and informs every single part of our country _ and informs every single part of our country and — and informs every single part of our country. and again, scotland will lead that — country. and again, scotland will lead that way and deliver that uk wide labour government. but i want to send _ wide labour government. but i want to send a _ wide labour government. but i want to send a special message to the people _ to send a special message to the peopte of— to send a special message to the people of scotland. over the last two years. — people of scotland. over the last two years, in my case, three years in keir_ two years, in my case, three years in keir starmer's case, we have with energy. _ in keir starmer's case, we have with energy with — in keir starmer's case, we have with energy, with humility and with hard work reached out to try and earn your— work reached out to try and earn your trust— work reached out to try and earn your trust and earn your support and that hard _ your trust and earn your support and that hard work doesn't stop now that we have _ that hard work doesn't stop now that we have won this by—election. that hard work— we have won this by—election. that hard work ramps up because we are very clear— hard work ramps up because we are very clear that we will have to work to earn _ very clear that we will have to work to earn your — very clear that we will have to work to earn your trust, earn your support— to earn your trust, earn your support and through that, transform every— support and through that, transform every part— support and through that, transform every part of our country, including here in_ every part of our country, including here in scotland, but every part of our united — here in scotland, but every part of our united kingdom. the final point i would _ our united kingdom. the final point i would make our united kingdom. the final point iwould make is our united kingdom. the final point i would make is the other thing that is now— i would make is the other thing that is now really, really clear in scottish _ is now really, really clear in scottish politics is there is only one party— scottish politics is there is only one party that is trying to persuade anyone _ one party that is trying to persuade anyone in_ one party that is trying to persuade anyone in scotland. the conservatives, the morally bankrupt conservatives, the morally bankrupt conservatives are really appealing to their _ conservatives are really appealing to their hardcore base. the incompetent and out of touch and snp is only— incompetent and out of touch and snp is only appealing to their hardcore base _ is only appealing to their hardcore base it _ is only appealing to their hardcore base it is — is only appealing to their hardcore base. it is only labour that is saying. — base. it is only labour that is saying, let's pull our country together _ saying, let's pull our country together and let's deliver that transformative change for every part of our _ transformative change for every part of our country. transformative change for every part of our country-— of our country. cheering and applause _ applause there is now only one party that is the party— there is now only one party that is the party of— there is now only one party that is the party of change in scotland and that is— the party of change in scotland and that is scottish labour. labour, _ that is scottish labour. labour, the party of change. the snp and tories, _ labour, the party of change. the snp and tories, anti—change. but let's build _ and tories, anti—change. but let's build between now and then next general— build between now and then next general election and deliver that historic— general election and deliver that historic labour government that changes— historic labour government that changes people's lives here in scotland — changes people's lives here in scotland and right across the uk and that campaign right across the uk will be _ that campaign right across the uk will be led by my friend, keir starmer~ _ starmer. cheering and applause thank you. they said that we couldn't change the labour party, but we did it. they said that we couldn't win in the south of england and the north of england, and we did it. they said you will never beat the snp in scotland, and rutherglen, you did it! cheering and applause when i left here a week ago with the team, i said, when i left here a week ago with the team, isaid, you've when i left here a week ago with the team, i said, you've got to win it. you blew the doors off! and congratulations to our brilliant candidate, now mp, michael. what a fantastic campaign he has run. i am so proud of this campaign, of what you have achieved. at a time when a lot of scottish voters looked at the tory government and saw something that didn't represent them. they turned their back on that. but they also would not so long ago saw a labour party that had drifted away from them. we have changed and because we have changed, we are now the party of changed, we are now the party of change here in scotland, we are the party of change in britain. we are the party of change right across the whole country. and whilst we've been busy here, you will have seen the tories have been in manchester. what a circus! rishi sunak pretending that he is going to do things differently. the nodding dog who passed all those decisions that he now says are a complete failure. the tory mps tangling with nigel farage. the cabinetjostling for the prime minister'sjob the cabinetjostling for the prime minister's job because they know he is not up to and we are the party of change. and as for the snp, this isn't aboutjust a change. and as for the snp, this isn't about just a few months change. and as for the snp, this isn't aboutjust a few months of turmoil in the snp. it is about years and years of non—delivery and thatis years and years of non—delivery and that is why we are the party of change. and we go on from here. there is much more work to do. this is a first step on a very, very importantjourney for all of us, in important journey for all of us, in scotland, importantjourney for all of us, in scotland, for all of us across the whole of the united kingdom. we get the chance now to lay out our positive case for change when we go to our conference in liverpool. that's what we will be doing, setting out the change we want to see in this country. but because we have changed, we are the hope of change. because we have changed, we can answer the question, why labour? because we have changed we are hungry for power and because we have changed, we are ready to serve across scotland and across the united kingdom. thank you so much, everyone. fantastic campaign! cheering and applause well done. fantastic. . . ., fantastic. there we have it, a lot of celebration _ fantastic. there we have it, a lot of celebration taking _ fantastic. there we have it, a lot of celebration taking place - fantastic. there we have it, a lot of celebration taking place in - fantastic. there we have it, a lot of celebration taking place in the | of celebration taking place in the labour party in rutherglen. whilst we are watching those pictures of those leaders just standing on stage, i am sure there will be a view photo ops taking place. let's stick with those and return to jason, former editor of the sunday times. jason, a lot there, talking about change, the change we have seenin about change, the change we have seen in scotland. is this because of a change, do you think this vote is because of a change in the labour party or do you think this vote is down to the turbulence in the snp and that rule breaking? i think a combination of both. i think that as labour has looked to be more electable again, that change has appealed to a lot of scottish voters in many cases, who are most determined to rid get of rishi sunak and the conservatives from power. i think that has been a big change and the more credible they look, the more attractive they become as an option for voters. but i think also just that collapse in the snp. you look at anas sarwar, the labour leader in scotland. he has a very high personal approval ratings. you contrast that with nicola sturgeon's successor, who is still very deep in negative personal approval territory. all the malays in the snp that has got the feeling of a bit of a burst balloon at the moment. it is rare on tetra, independence isn't going anywhere at the moment, largely because of the likes of keir starmer and rishi sunak have made it clear they are not prepared to revisit the issue of independence referendum again. it was said by the snp at the time to be a once in a generation vote does not so because thatis generation vote does not so because that is off the agenda at the moment, i think this was the real problem with the snp and galvanising its supporters. all these things point towards a drift towards labour, certainly as far as snp voters are concerned. 50 lots, lots more success i think for sir keir starmer to look forward to in scotland. starmer to look forward to in scotland-— starmer to look forward to in scotland. ~ . ,~ . , scotland. jason allardyce, really aood to scotland. jason allardyce, really good to get _ scotland. jason allardyce, really good to get your _ scotland. jason allardyce, really good to get your thoughts - scotland. jason allardyce, really good to get your thoughts here | scotland. jason allardyce, really i good to get your thoughts here on bbc news. let's get more on this now and go live to our political correspondent nick eardley who is in rutherglen and was just listening to those speeches. what did you make of that? it strikes me that you can feel almost the optimism in the labour party in scotland now. we had ian murray, until yesterday labour's in saying the tectonic plates in scotland are shifting as a result of this by—election in rutherglen and hamilton west. you had jackie baillie, the party's deputy leader in scotland, quoting sirjohn curtis, suggesting on this when, labour could win 40 plus seats in scotland that a general labour could win 40 plus seats in scotla they at a general labour could win 40 plus seats in scotla they have eneral labour could win 40 plus seats in scotla they have pretty much think, they have pretty much declared that they are back in scotland and that they can win a number of seats at the next general election. i suppose it is worth a couple of caveats to that. the first of which is scottish politics is pretty volatile to stop i remember being here in 2017, labour won the seat at the general election then i'm lost in 2019. a lot changes very quickly in scottish politics. it may well change again. but you really do get the sense that things have moved quite quickly. in fact... i get the sense that things have moved quite quickly. in fact. . ._ quite quickly. in fact... i think ou are quite quickly. in fact... i think you are about _ quite quickly. in fact... i think you are about to _ quite quickly. in fact... i think you are about to say - quite quickly. in fact... i think you are about to say what - quite quickly. in fact... i think you are about to say what i i quite quickly. in fact... i think. you are about to say what i was about to say, we will listen to keir starmer. ., ~ , ., ., , , starmer. your new mp is out of step with our starmer. your new mp is out of step with your own _ starmer. your new mp is out of step with your own policies, _ starmer. your new mp is out of step with your own policies, he _ starmer. your new mp is out of step with your own policies, he is - starmer. your new mp is out of step with your own policies, he is saying l with your own policies, he is saying the opposite — with your own policies, he is saying the opposite gender— with your own policies, he is saying the opposite gender reforms - with your own policies, he is saying the opposite gender reforms and l with your own policies, he is saying. the opposite gender reforms and the opposite _ the opposite gender reforms and the opposite on— the opposite gender reforms and the opposite on two— the opposite gender reforms and the opposite on two child _ the opposite gender reforms and the opposite on two child policy - the opposite gender reforms and the opposite on two child policy so - the opposite gender reforms and the opposite on two child policy so how. opposite on two child policy so how will you _ opposite on two child policy so how will you square _ opposite on two child policy so how will you square that _ opposite on two child policy so how will you square that circle? - opposite on two child policy so how will you square that circle? we - opposite on two child policy so how will you square that circle?- will you square that circle? we are in exactly the _ will you square that circle? we are in exactly the same _ will you square that circle? we are in exactly the same place. - will you square that circle? we are in exactly the same place. we - will you square that circle? we are. in exactly the same place. we know exactly— in exactly the same place. we know exactly what we want to achieve. those _ exactly what we want to achieve. those challenges were put to us throughout this campaign. we have knocked _ throughout this campaign. we have knocked them aside, shown we are a united _ knocked them aside, shown we are a united team — knocked them aside, shown we are a united team and pulled off an incredible historic victory here in this by—election. i don't think this by—election. idon't think anybody— this by—election. i don't think anybody will look back at this and think— anybody will look back at this and think it _ anybody will look back at this and think it is — anybody will look back at this and think it is anything other than an historic— think it is anything other than an historic day for labour, the scotland _ historic day for labour, the scotland and hopefully for the general — scotland and hopefully for the general election. but we accept it, we accept — general election. but we accept it, we accept that victory humbly knowing — we accept that victory humbly knowing that we work on from here in scotland _ knowing that we work on from here in scotland for _ knowing that we work on from here in scotland for the change that people desperately need. do scotland for the change that people desperately need.— desperately need. do you think the olice desperately need. do you think the police investigation _ desperately need. do you think the police investigation into _ desperately need. do you think the police investigation into the - desperately need. do you think the police investigation into the snp i police investigation into the snp harmed — police investigation into the snp harmed them _ police investigation into the snp harmed them this _ police investigation into the snp harmed them this time - police investigation into the snp harmed them this time and - police investigation into the snp harmed them this time and is i police investigation into the snp. harmed them this time and is what did it _ harmed them this time and is what did it for— harmed them this time and is what did it for you — harmed them this time and is what did it foryou here? _ harmed them this time and is what did it for you here?— harmed them this time and is what did it for you here?- we - harmed them this time and is what did it foryou here? no... we are l did it for you here? no... we are auoin to did it for you here? no... we are going to cut _ did it for you here? no... we are going to cut away _ did it for you here? no... we are going to cut away from _ did it for you here? no... we are going to cut away from that - going to cut away from that interview with sir keir starmer and head back to our correspondence, nick eardley, who was summing up the mood, atmosphere and the feeling amongst labour supporters where you are in rutherglen. nick. it is frankly that _ are in rutherglen. nick. it is frankly that sense _ are in rutherglen. nick. it is frankly that sense of - are in rutherglen. nick. it 3 frankly that sense of optimism. it is quite overwhelming when everyone i have chatted to from the labour party this morning, from labour hq right up to the top of the party, they are extremely optimistic. i want to bring in scottish labour's deck vitty leaderjackie baillie. i will bring you over here because i was very struck there. —— deputy leader. you said john curtice analysis suggest on a uniform swing labour could win 40 seats, is that what you are eyeing up?— labour could win 40 seats, is that what you are eyeing up? look, we are not complacent _ what you are eyeing up? look, we are not complacent about _ what you are eyeing up? look, we are not complacent about this. _ what you are eyeing up? look, we are not complacent about this. that - what you are eyeing up? look, we are not complacent about this. that is - what you are eyeing up? look, we are not complacent about this. that is a i not complacent about this. that is a seismic— not complacent about this. that is a seismic victory for us and it's given— seismic victory for us and it's given us— seismic victory for us and it's given us a _ seismic victory for us and it's given us a lot of energy and enthusiasm for the campaign ahead. but talk— enthusiasm for the campaign ahead. but talk to— enthusiasm for the campaign ahead. but talk to me about numbers, what does it mean labour can win a general election? tote does it mean labour can win a general election?— does it mean labour can win a general election? we can win a ma'ori general election? we can win a majority of _ general election? we can win a majority of the _ general election? we can win a majority of the seats _ general election? we can win a majority of the seats in - general election? we can win a l majority of the seats in scotland. pushing — majority of the seats in scotland. pushing the snp into second if not third place. ithink pushing the snp into second if not third place. i think all bets are off when— third place. i think all bets are off when it comes to the general election — off when it comes to the general election. we will work every seat as hard as— election. we will work every seat as hard as we — election. we will work every seat as hard as we have worked rutherglen and hamilton west. we will take nothing — and hamilton west. we will take nothing for granted. we are not complacent, but we had a message of hope that— complacent, but we had a message of hope that we were taking to our constituency, against a backdrop of culture _ constituency, against a backdrop of culture was— constituency, against a backdrop of culture was from the tories and really— culture was from the tories and really quite vicious attacks from the snp — really quite vicious attacks from the snp on labour. the reality for us is _ the snp on labour. the reality for us is we _ the snp on labour. the reality for us is we think we can bring the change — us is we think we can bring the change that the country needs. we have proved it here in rutherglen and hamilton west. we will do it across— and hamilton west. we will do it across scotland and across the united — across scotland and across the united kingdom. just across scotland and across the united kingdom.— across scotland and across the united kingdom. just to dwell on that for another _ united kingdom. just to dwell on that for another second, - united kingdom. just to dwell on that for another second, a - united kingdom. just to dwell on l that for another second, a majority of seats in scotland. you'd think now that in a year's time you can go from two mps to 25 plus? yes. now that in a year's time you can go from two mps to 25 plus?— from two mps to 25 plus? yes, i think we can- — from two mps to 25 plus? yes, i think we can. the _ from two mps to 25 plus? yes, i think we can. the evidence - from two mps to 25 plus? yes, i think we can. the evidence is i from two mps to 25 plus? yes, i i think we can. the evidence is there because _ think we can. the evidence is there because when anas sarwar was first elected _ because when anas sarwar was first elected two years ago, we were polling — elected two years ago, we were polling 14%. we have no more than doubled _ polling 14%. we have no more than doubled that. we are the second party— doubled that. we are the second party in — doubled that. we are the second party in scotland, no longer the third _ party in scotland, no longer the third party and if we can win in seats— third party and if we can win in seats like _ third party and if we can win in seats like rutherglen and hamilton west. _ seats like rutherglen and hamilton west, which frankly is a bit of a weather— west, which frankly is a bit of a weather vane seat for the rest of scotland. — weather vane seat for the rest of scotland, then i think we can win in other— scotland, then i think we can win in other seats — scotland, then i think we can win in other seats. but we are not complacent. we are taking nothing for granted. we will work so hard for granted. we will work so hard for each — for granted. we will work so hard for each and every one of those without — for each and every one of those without i — for each and every one of those without. ., , , ., ., �* without. i hope you don't mind me saying you — without. i hope you don't mind me saying you are _ without. i hope you don't mind me saying you are a — without. i hope you don't mind me saying you are a veteran _ without. i hope you don't mind me saying you are a veteran of- without. i hope you don't mind me| saying you are a veteran of scottish politics, and msp for a couple of decades now. here is a set leek question for you, you know how much and how quickly scottish politics can change is that in 2017 when he won this seat but lustre in 2019. you won six or seven seats in 2017 and back to one a couple of years later. are you not getting a bit ahead of yourself saying you can win more seats in scotland next year? i don't think i am a because i have been _ don't think i am a because i have been around for so long, as you put it, i been around for so long, as you put it. i do— been around for so long, as you put it. i do know— been around for so long, as you put it, i do know what is going on in scottish— it, i do know what is going on in scottish politics. i see the shifts and changes. my focus group, to be frank. _ and changes. my focus group, to be frank. is _ and changes. my focus group, to be frank. is the — and changes. my focus group, to be frank, is the doorsteps of communities like there is scotland. they are _ communities like there is scotland. they are telling me they want change — they are telling me they want change. they are sick of the two governments, 13 years of the tories, six years— governments, 13 years of the tories, six years of— governments, 13 years of the tories, six years of the snp, they are no better— six years of the snp, they are no better off — six years of the snp, they are no better off. in fact, they are worse off. better off. in fact, they are worse off they're — better off. in fact, they are worse off. they're going for a cost of living — off. they're going for a cost of living crisis— off. they're going for a cost of living crisis and there is no help available — living crisis and there is no help available to them from either government. they want change. they want the _ government. they want change. they want the positivity in the hope that labour _ want the positivity in the hope that labour is _ want the positivity in the hope that labour is offering. are want the positivity in the hope that labour is offering.— want the positivity in the hope that labour is offering. are labour going to win a majority — labour is offering. are labour going to win a majority at _ labour is offering. are labour going to win a majority at the _ labour is offering. are labour going to win a majority at the next - to win a majority at the next general election? i to win a majority at the next general election?— to win a majority at the next general election? to win a majority at the next reneral election? ~ , general election? i think they will. i sincerely hope — general election? i think they will. i sincerely hope they _ general election? i think they will. i sincerely hope they will. - general election? i think they will. i sincerely hope they will. i - general election? i think they will. i sincerely hope they will. i think. i sincerely hope they will. i think with the — i sincerely hope they will. i think with the leadership of keir starmer and anas— with the leadership of keir starmer and anas sarwar in scotland and the support— and anas sarwar in scotland and the support of— and anas sarwar in scotland and the support of the scottish people, then there is— support of the scottish people, then there is absolutely no reason why we can't kick— there is absolutely no reason why we can't kick the tories out of number 10. . ., . ~ can't kick the tories out of number 10. jackie baillie, a veteran of scottish politics _ 10. jackie baillie, a veteran of scottish politics and _ 10. jackie baillie, a veteran of scottish politics and a - 10. jackie baillie, a veteran of scottish politics and a good i 10. jackie baillie, a veteran of i scottish politics and a good way, thank you very much for talking to us on bbc news. there you have it, a majority of seats in scotland. quite incredible really when you think about it. yesterday morning, labour had one seat in scotland. they now have two and you have just had the deputy leader of the scottish labour party saying they can win the majority of seats in scotland in one year's time. yes, wow, that was a really, really interesting thing to hear. let's look at the general election next year. the independence referendum, thatis year. the independence referendum, that is going to play a big factor in scottish voters minds. how much do you think that played into this by—election and people voting on that, compared to how it will play when people are voting next year? it is a really interesting question, actually, because for the last few years, scottish politics has largely divided along constitutional lines. there was a lot of tactical voting. if you are pro—independence to snp or may be the scottish greens. anti—independence and you voted for the biggest and the independence party, labour, the tories or the lib dems. i am party, labour, the tories or the lib dems. lam not party, labour, the tories or the lib dems. i am not so sure that that that was the defining issue yesterday. but one thing, chatting to snp people this morning, i think they still think... support for independence has gone down —— hasn't gone down significantly in the polls and the snp strategy now i think will be to try and re—enter your user —— get enthusiasm amongst the independence voters. that has been crucial in elections in scotland over the last few years. if the snp get their vote outcome if they can excite independent supporters, then they often win first past the post seats. 50 i reckon when you hear humza yousaf and the snp conference in a couple of weeks, he will talk about that sort of thing. he will want to put it back on the agenda. but the calculation labour are making this morning when they talk about winning a majority of seats in scotland is that something has changed, that people are not as obsessed with in bed dependents as they might have been at elections past in scotland and now they are thinking more about who will be in charge at westminster. they are thinking more about the cost of living crisis. and they like what labour are saying. but, living crisis. and they like what labourare saying. but, i had said it far too many times this morning, i'm going to say one more time: scottish politics is volatile. it changes a lot. i am not as much as a veteran of some others that i have been about for long enough to see things change quite a lot at elections, referendums and by—elections. so elections, referendums and by—elections. 50 labour are very, very happy but nothing is certain. do you think there could be a danger that labour could be coming very volatile in scotland but is there a danger that labour could be a little bit too optimistic looking forward to the general election? of course, they have their party conference coming up as well. we are expecting this will probably be a big focus now. this will put a spring in their step. but do they need to be quite measured still? i think they probably do. there is almost two ways of looking at that. in scotland, yes. look, they are optimistic, there is no doubt about it. i was really struck chatting to someone who knows how these things work in the labour party who was talking about 28 seats being in play late last night. that is a big claim. there is very little sense of expectation management there. so there is a chance of labour getting ahead of themselves. there is also the uk context because they won this by—election in rutherglen and hamilton west. it was a must win, they had to win it by a thumping majority and they did, so they are delighted. but in two weeks' time, we will be standing in mid bedfordshire and tamworth are looking at another set of by—elections. labour could win one, they could win both of those seats and if that happens, at that point, i think we will really be talking about something changing in british politics. it will feel like quite a significant moment. but quite where exactly it all goes over the next few weeks, nothing certain. it never is in politics, is it? nick eardley in rutherglen, reporting. we can cross now to professor sirjohn curtis, a political scientist at the university of strathclyde. thank you for joining university of strathclyde. thank you forjoining us here on bbc news. talk to me about what you think the implications this by—election has earned the election next year? of course, the opinion polls in scotland have been pointing through the course of this year to a marked decline in snp support. that in combination with the fact the labour party was already enjoying something of a revival in scotland for much the same reason as the labour party has been receiving revival south of the border, that is borisjohnson and partygate and liz truss and her fiscal event, given that back drop, we have been asking ourselves, well, is there a serious chance that the labour party would be able to take a significant number of seats away from the snp? now by—elections often exaggerate their swings. voters can take them as an opportunity to cast a protest vote and vote for a party that perhaps they might not be willing to vote for in a general election. but all of that said, i think that in rutherglen, when the swing is almost twice that in the opinion polls, is if anybody inside the snp had any thought may be the opinion polls were exaggerating their difficulties, that they do not have a fight on their hands in order to retain their dominant of scotland's representation at westminster or any such thoughts, they should be dispelled. the snp, who are led by somebody who is markedly less popular than his predecessor nicola sturgeon and whose internal divisions have been rather markedly exposed in recent months and have been noticed by voters is now finding it more difficult to win voters, including those who are still committed to independence. what does this mean for the uk as a whole? what it means that the uk as a whole is it increases the chances that sir keir starmer will be able to gain the keys of 10 downing street with an overall majority. he potentially faces quite a difficult electoral geography. on the standard calculations, labour might need a 12 or 13 point lead just to get a majority of one. so although they currently have a 17 point lead in the opinion polls, and diminished by the opinion polls, and diminished by the conservative conference, that is still, it's not that far north of what they might need. but for every dozen seat that labour gains in scotland, you can knock two points off that lead. 50 for sir keir starmer at least, off that lead. 50 for sir keir starmerat least, it off that lead. 50 for sir keir starmer at least, it potentially means getting into 10 downing street, not with the potential nightmare of a hung parliament but with an overall majority. ok. nightmare of a hung parliament but with an overall majority.— with an overall ma'ority. ok, sir john cunice. — with an overall majority. ok, sir john curtice, thank _ with an overall majority. ok, sir john curtice, thank you - with an overall majority. ok, sir john curtice, thank you for i with an overall majority. ok, sir john curtice, thank you for your | john curtice, thank you for your thoughts here on bbc news. you can also follow all of our coverage if you just head to the bbc news page. we have live reports from our reporters in scotland and across the uk. but now it is time for a look at the weather with matt taylor. hello. some big weather contrasts across the uk this weekend. let's talk temperature first of all. this first chart shows how temperatures compared to normal — blues cooler than normal, reds are much warmer than normal. ten, 11, 12 degrees above average actually this weekend across parts of iberia and central europe. and that warmth is extended to much of the uk — exception being through scotland, where not only will it be cooler, but notice this. this is how rainfall totals will be totting up. dry in the south but pretty wet, argyll and bute and the highlands could see 100 to 150 millimetres of rain — that could cause some landslips and flooding. and it's all these weather fronts here which are just moving around slowly. this area of high pressure, which is drawing up the warmer air and perhaps even a little saharan dust at times. the weather front responsible for rain in scotland, well, today, that's across northern england, northern ireland through this afternoon. outbreaks of rain — that will push into southwest scotland increasingly later on. northeast scotland stays with sunny spells, but windy here, 50, 60 mile an hour gusts still. blustery elsewhere, but further south, we are brighter conditions, spells of sunshine and feeling warmer. 22 in london and norwich, compared to 13 in stornoway and lerwick, made to feel even colder in stornoway and lerwick given the strength of the wind. now, that wind remain a feature through tonight, easing just a tiny bit. but the rain whilst in north wales, northern england and northern ireland will be on and off for a time before drying out later, scotland, the more persistent rain really sets in, becoming very heavy in the hills, in the southwest in particular later in the night. it does keep temperatures up, though. that feed of warmer air pushing in, temperatures for many in the teens as we start saturday. but a distinct north—south contrast. we'll see some low cloud around some southern coasts, some of which will come and go through the day. but spells of hazy sunshine elsewhere. northern england, northern ireland brighten up after a cloudy start. but whilst we'll see sunshine in northern scotland, outbreaks of persistent rain through much of the mainland and feeling cold as well for this stage of the year. nine degrees in aberdeen, maybe even lower than that in the highlands, 24 towards london. though warmer conditions, though, will become a bit more dominant in the north through into sunday. still cloud, still some outbreaks of rain, but mainly in the north of scotland, one or two showers elsewhere. but improvement on saturday, temperatures up into the low if not mid—teens by then. elsewhere, widely high teens, low 205, although down a little bit on saturday's values to the south and the east. warms up again though across the south as we head through the early part of next week, turns cooler, more unsettled later and distinctly cooler across the north. take care. live from london, this is bbc news. the jailed iranian women's rights campaigner narges mohammadi wins the nobel peace prize for her fight against oppression and promotion of human rights. an emphatic win for labour in a key by—election in scotland. leader keir starmer describes it as a "seismic result". this is a first step on a very, very importantjourney for all of us in scotland, for all of us across the whole of the united kingdom. international condemnation of a russian airstrike in northeastern ukraine that killed at least 51 people — including an eight—year—old boy. and the bbc catches up with one of america's greatest movie directors, martin scorsese, before the release of his latest film. hello, i'm luxmy gopal. ajailed iranian women's rights campaigner has been named the winner of the nobel peace prize. narges mohammadi was awarded the prize for her fight against the oppression of women in iran and her efforts for promoting human rights and freedom for all. her husband told the bbc he's excited for her, but it's a sad time as they are not together as she is still in prison in iran. she has been arrested her 13 times, convicted five times and sentenced to a total of 31 years in prison.

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