that the death of yevgeny prigozhin marks another crack in russia's pyramid of power. as ukraine celebrates 32 years of independence, we've been travelling across the country, testing feelings about how the war against russia might be brought to an end. now it is much harder. it is not so fast. to occupy our territories, it is a lot of lives, a lot of death. and we talk to the country's deputy defence minister about the war and impact of prigozhin�*s death. it means a lot. first of all, they are losing confidence, they are losing morale and orientation. i am talking about the lower ranks, and they don't understand what to do next. also tonight... after the first republican debate, what did we learn about attitudes on the us right to their country's support for ukraine? you would not support an increase in funding to ukraine? i you would not support an increase in funding to ukraine?— funding to ukraine? i would not and i think this is _ funding to ukraine? i would not and i think this is disastrous... - funding to ukraine? i would not and i think this is disastrous... we - funding to ukraine? i would not and i think this is disastrous... we are l i think this is disastrous... we are protecting — i think this is disastrous... we are protecting an invasion against somebody else's border when we should _ somebody else's border when we should use those resources to prevent — should use those resources to prevent an invasion across our own southern _ prevent an invasion across our own southern border in the united states — we'll ask the former director of the cia, general david petraeus, how long will america back ukraine? and as the repercussions of prigozhin's death are felt across africa, bbc arabic report from inside mali, where wagner are among rival militant groups vying for power. translation: in the areas wagner are 0 eratin: , translation: in the areas wagner are operating. they — translation: in the areas wagner are operating, they have _ translation: in the areas wagner are operating, they have committed - translation: in the areas wagner are operating, they have committed a - translation: in the areas wagner are operating, they have committed a lot i operating, they have committed a lot of crimes, taking people's belongings and killing innocent people indiscriminately. good evening from the capital of ukraine. they celebrated independence here today, and there's great pride that they've held the russian invasion at bay, and are still re—taking occupied areas, albeit slowly. but how to end a conflict that the pentagon estimates has caused half a million casualties? for many here, and their supporters abroad, the aim seems to be putting such pressure on the russian military that vladimir putin is overthrown. leading to a withdrawal from this country. and that's the context in which many judge the death of mercenary leader yevgeny prigozhin, hoping it triggers more trouble for the kremlin. but hope, as they say, is not a strategy. where to go from here? we've been travelling around ukraine in recent days, gauging the mood at this important moment. it was a day of pride here, but also one of reckoning. it began with ceremonial. president zelensky, as so often, centre stage. slava ukraini. crowd: heroiam slava! and down below, on kiev�*s main street, people strolled in the sunshine, inspecting a column of knocked—out russian armour. the enemy was driven from the gates of this city 16 months ago, but the price to the nation continues to rise. for oleksander and lyubov, donning national dress to celebrate, this second wartime independence day has been a moment for reflection about what lies ahead. it's not only about the war. we'll have to do a lot of things after the war. we have to rebuild our country. we have to bring up the economy and all this stuff. it will also take a lot of effort for us. one year ago, it was much brighter for me, first of all. yeah, we fight, we are great, and so on. we will win. now it's much harder. it's not so fast, like, to win and so on. to occupy our territories, it's a lot of lives, a lot of death, really. at thejesuit church in lviv — the city that's the jewel of western ukraine — we got an insight a few days ago into the depth of this country's sacrifice. this was a memorial service for two young lives snuffed out in the war. a mother still struggling to make sense of it. no sooner was that service over than a colour party formed up outside. a national guardsman, killed at the front, was returning to his home city. it's actually illegal here to reveal how many of these personal tragedies there have been, but the pentagon estimates 70,000 ukrainians have been killed in this war. and with every death here, you get the sense that it becomes a little bit harder by degree for president zelensky, or anyone else in a leadership role, to agree to a messy peace, to a repetition of the kind of situation that existed between 2014 and 2022, which was neither peace nor war. hi, valentyna. hi. taras matviyiv was valentyna's only child. his death on the front three years ago is a reminder of the enduring nature of this conflict. translation: taras did not die immediately. - they tried to save him. he was taken to an ambulance, but the injury was so severe that he died on the way. taras was awarded the hero of ukraine — his country's highest decoration. the street outside the school where he studied — and his mother still teaches — has been renamed. taras has entered the pantheon of those who made the ultimate sacrifice for this country. but ask his parents about how the war should end, and you realise how far the sacrifices of recent years now limit would—be peacemakers' freedom of action. translation: you understand, l we can't forget all those who died, who were wounded, those who became disabled, those who are missing and in captivity. we have to remember them all. we need to remember them and fight so that those in captivity are returned home. the missing are found. and, of course, those who, thank god, stayed alive can feel they are on their own land, so that the heroes are not forgotten. when you say they shouldn't die in vain, what does that mean? translation: we need . the return of all of ukraine, including crimea and donbass. we won't settle for less. there is no alternative here with these territories. we definitely have to bring it back — all our territory. and while peace talks are off the agenda, events like this take place near daily. in lviv, a week ago, we came upon the scene of a russian missile strike. translation: these are the - consequence of the night shelling. the missile hit the grounds of the kindergarten, the playground. the building was hit and all the windows and doors flew out. furniture, communications, walls. a large part of the building itself has been destroyed. there were no children here because the strike happened during the night and the intended target may have been a nearby airfield. with negotiations going nowhere and victory elusive on the battlefield, the prospects are that the conflict will continue this way into the winter. this type of attack with a cruise missile shows that russia can still strike throughout the entirety of ukraine, and increasingly the ukrainians can hit russian targets all the way to moscow. and as the battlefronts solidify in the grip of winter, this may well be the direction of travel — long—range bombardment by the two sides, keeping the conflict alive. sirens sound. as the day went on, air raid sirens reminded everyone of the unfinished nature of this war. the reminders are everywhere, but the road to peace as obscure as it's ever been. earlier i spoke to ukraine's deputy minister of defence, volodymyr havrylov. i began by asking him whether he thought the death of yevgeny prigozhin will make any difference to the war. this person is criminal number one to us. with all his bad thing done in ukraine. and his team, his groups, his force was very brutal in this war. it was very dangerous group of people. and therefore, the leadership is very crucial because prigozhin was a very symbolic, charismatic leader. and when this group lost this charismatic leader, it means a lot. first of all, they lose in confidence, they lose in morale, they lose in orientation. i'm talking about the lower ranks, and they don't understand what to do next. for us, it's a good sign. it contributes to the stability of the regime in russia. so it creates one more crack in the pyramid of the russian criminal corrupted structure. let's talk about the fighting and the state of the war, particularly the ground war. we know that the counteroffensive is coming towards the end of its third month, and it has made gains in some areas, but have you been disappointed that it hasn't made greater gains? our approach is very simple. we have to save lives of our people, not to waste them, as the russians do with their soldiers. and for us, the value of life is number one in our country and our culture. that's why we have to adjust to the situation on the ground in terms of the minds, in terms of the fortifications, to adjust, adapt our tactics and our equipment. so for us, it's not a matter of time, this counter—offensive. it's a matter of success. every day, step by step, we are liberating our territories. sometimes 100 metres, sometimes one kilometre. but it's a steady process, and we will keep it coming as long as it's necessary. we have to keep in mind that now, after one and a half years of this war, ukraine is on the offensive and russia is in defense. russia is now surviving, fighting for survival in this war, not ukraine. and when we look towards the coming winter, when rain and cold mean, inevitably, that operations will slow down, do you have what you need to get through the winter in terms of anti—aircraft, defence, ammunition, all the other things you'll need to keep going through this winter? we're in much better shape and condition than the last year. we have received a lot of air defence from our partners, which is very crucial, especially against ballistic missiles. nevertheless, our territory is huge. 0ur infrastructure is enormous, of course. that's why we need more air defence system to protect infrastructure first. we're marking independence day here today. do you think in a year's time, if we meet again, it might be a reasonable hope that the war will have come to an end by then? or do you think ukrainians have to be ready to carry on for another year, if that's what it takes? everybody understands here that we are on the right way. we have successes and we are confident that the enemy is not ready to sustain this war. so, yes, there are people who are more stressed, people who are more optimistic, somebody in the middle is a realist. nevertheless, there is a core of the nation with sufficient numbers to keep pushing the russians away from our territory as long as it necessary. deputy minister, thank you very much. general volodymyr havrylov talking to us earlier. that is all from us in kyiv, back to you in the studio, katie. thank you, mark. last night, america got its first taste of a republican presidential primary debate ahead of next year's election. ukraine didn't feature heavily in the fox news extravaganza, but the party's divides over the issue were on full display, with ron desantis and the tech millionaire vivek ramaswamy against future us aid. nikki haley — the only woman in the eight—person debate — accused ramaswamy of wanting to hand ukraine to russia. david grossman is here with more. the conflict in ukraine in right of centre us politics at the moment is often discussed in terms of choices. why is america choosing to spend so much money on protecting a country in eastern europe, when the us homeland is facing so many problems of its own? at last night's repbublican debate, in milwaukee, the subject got a brief look in, less than ten minutes towards the end of a two hour discussion. up and coming candidate, vivek ramaswamy, a tech and health care entrepreneur, said that if he won the presidency he would stop any more american funds or weapons going to ukraine. we are protecting against an invasion across somebody else's border when we should use those same military resources to prevent invasion of our own southern border here in the united states of america. we are driving russia further into china's hands. the russia—china reliance is the single greatest threat we face and i find it offensive that we have professional politicians on the stage that will make a pilgrimage to kyiv, to their pope, zelensky, without doing the same thing for people in maui or the south side of chicago or kensington. now those sentiments will send a deep chill through the foreign ministries of europe. the other question, obviously, that is in the back of europeans' minds is, especially here in berlin, is not just what a republican presidency might bring about, in terms of their commitment to defence of ukraine but in terms of their commitment to nato in general, and, you know, collective defence and article 5, etc. so it's kind of bringing back the anxieties from 2016 electoral debates and from trump's presidency but this time with a war going on in europe. of some comfort to those worried europeans, there was plenty of pushback from other candidates at last night's debate. if we don't stand up against this type of autocratic killing in the world, we will be next. vivek, if we do the giveaway that you want to give to putin, - to give him his land, . it's not going to be too long before he rolls - across a nato border and, frankly, our men and women of our armed forces are going to have - to go and fight him. cheers and applause. he will make america less safe. under your watch, you will make america less safe. you have no foreign policy experience and it shows. and you know what... it shows! however, american public opinion seems far more the side of ending aid than extending aid. in a recent poll, only 45% said they support additional funding while 55% oppose. and when you split americans along party lines the division is stark. democrats split roughly 60/40 in favour of aid to ukraine. whereas republicans split roughly 70/30 the other way. and, of course, that is the constituency that will pick the republican presidential candidate. now, there is no prospect that the war in ukraine will dominate the upcoming us election — foreign policy rarely gets too much attention. however, money and government spending is always an issue, withjoe biden asking congress, including the republican controlled house, for another $24 billion of aid to ukraine, and an election fast approaching, it's not clear for how long ukraine will be able to count on us support. now to discuss this further i'm joined from arlington, virginia in the us, by general david petraeus, former commander of nato and us forces in afghanistan, and later director of the central intelligence agency. welcome, thank you so much for coming on the programme. debate like thatis coming on the programme. debate like that is all very well but donald trump wasn't there. it's clearly what he says that counts right now and we know that he said he wants to end the conflict rather than continue the current levels of support. in your view, continue the current levels of support. in yourview, if continue the current levels of support. in your view, if the us does stop arming the ukrainians, what happens then?— does stop arming the ukrainians, what happens then? well, i don't actually think— what happens then? well, i don't actually think that _ what happens then? well, i don't actually think that that's - what happens then? well, i don't actually think that that's a - actually think that that's a hypothetical worth spending a lot of time on right now. we are seven months from the inauguration of the next president. there is no clear candidate yet from the republicans. he may be leading but let's recognise there are four indictments out there, there are a number of other developments that will transpire before even the first primary is held, much less the general election in november next year, 14 months away. the bottom line is that the administration is very strongly in support of ukraine. the senate, there is strong bipartisan support for ukraine, very strong. the minority leader is one of the strongest in that regard. lindsey graham was just in kyiv. by the way, a supporter of president trump when it comes to domestic issues, but very strongly in support of ukraine and nato and our actions around the world. and so again, the question is going to be, how will they finesse all of this in the house, which obviously has a very small republican majority? but at some point, they will come to grips with this. there will be continued aid for ukraine and that will take us i think all the way at least i think into early the year after next. so what we need to be doing right now, frankly, in the united states, is making some decisions on some key weapon systems that ukraine needs and that we have hesitated to provide. the longer range missile system which would double the range of the position munition from the rocket system that we have provided. by rocket system that we have provided. by the way, your storm shadow is a terrific addition, the ukrainians are using this very effectively. this would take the range out even further... if i this would take the range out even further... .., this would take the range out even further... .. , , further... if i can “ust interrupt to ick further... if i can “ust interrupt to pick uph further... if i can “ust interrupt to pick up on _ further... if i can just interrupt to pick up on that, _ further... if i can just interrupt to pick up on that, in - further... if i can just interrupt to pick up on that, in terms i further... if i can just interrupt to pick up on that, in terms of| further... ifi canjust interrupt- to pick up on that, in terms of your assessment of how much progress the ukrainians are actually making on the battlefield, you know, clearly they have been given a lot of equipment but it doesn't look like they are making a great deal of progress or am i wrong? there is incremental progress. it's important, tactically important, not yet strategically important, in two areas of zaporizhzhia, in the southern part of the country. one of thoseis southern part of the country. one of those is particularly interesting because it appears that the ukrainians may have actually cracked through the first line of defence. let's give the russians credit for one thing that they have done well in the war in which their performance is otherwise very undistinguished, and that is they have established a very substantial defensive, defence in depth in the south. the ukrainians learned early on they could notjust cracked through this. they don't have the air supremacy were there mounted armour breaching systems we have, for example... find armour breaching systems we have, for example- - -_ for example... and an awful lot of money has — for example... and an awful lot of money has gone _ for example... and an awful lot of money has gone in _ for example... and an awful lot of money has gone in and _ for example... and an awful lot of money has gone in and of - for example... and an awful lot of money has gone in and of course l for example... and an awful lot of i money has gone in and of course and there is a lot of goodwill and support from the west, notjust the us but $44 billion is a huge amount. the american support has been extraordinary, as has really the american leadership. for something that doesn't — american leadership. for something that doesn't look _ american leadership. for something that doesn't look like _ american leadership. for something that doesn't look like that _ american leadership. for something that doesn't look like that much - that doesn't look like that much progress. that doesn't look like that much roaress. ~ �* , that doesn't look like that much ro:ress.~ h ., , progress. well, there's double, i wrote in the _ progress. well, there's double, i wrote in the washington - progress. well, there's double, i wrote in the washington post - progress. well, there's double, i. wrote in the washington post today and saying its wildly premature to assess this is a failure, second to write it. we are ten weeks into an offensive that will undoubtably spread for at least four more months and that is why we need to get the attacking system in there and why we need to get cluster munitions that can be fired from rockets at various range, notjust the artillery can be fired from rockets at various range, not just the artillery we have provided. those systems have proved devastatingly effective against russian defenders and i wish we had provided though sooner. so sorry to interrupt but i wanted to get in just before the end, clearly there's been a lot of talk ever since the reported death of prigozhin about what it means and who did it. you use to run the cia. i wonder what they will be thinking about his death if it is true? weill. about his death if it is true? well, the director _ about his death if it is true? well, the director of _ about his death if it is true? well, the director of the _ about his death if it is true? well, the director of the cia _ about his death if it is true? well, the director of the cia has - about his death if it is true? -ii the director of the cia has noted that putin believes that revenge is a dish best eaten cold. he also essentially hinted that this was something we can expect, something i think all of us did expect. really, this is a blatantly spectacularly ruthless action. again, not unexpected but it really furthers the transformation of the russian federation into a mafia state. that is what is happening here now it clearly solidifies putin once again as the absolute ruler. by the way, he also removed the commander, who actually was responsible for the defence in the south, who was seemingly supportive or at least tolerated what it was that prigozhin was doing on the day he launched that aborted coup moscow. so there is a lot of retribution taken in the last 24—48 hours. putin clearly solidly on the throne and what we need to do is everything we can, both in military and also in terms of sanctions and export controls, to enable ukraine to convince putin that he is not going to be able to out suffer the euro cranium is, the europeans and the americans. general david petraeus, _ europeans and the americans. general david petraeus, thank _ europeans and the americans. general david petraeus, thank you _ europeans and the americans. general david petraeus, thank you so - europeans and the americans. general david petraeus, thank you so much - david petraeus, thank you so much for coming on newsnight. sticking with that story... after the presumed death of yevgeny prigozhin, what's the future of his wagner group? its operations stretch much further than ukraine, with the mercenary group active across several countries in africa. only a few days ago, prigozhin was seen in a video trumpeting wagner's role in making �*africa more free'. as he put it. 0ne place where the group has been operating is mali, where the mercenaries are believed to have about 1,000 soldiers. groups linked to al-qaeda and islamic state group have brought chaos and violence to the country and the malian military government has been depending on russia and wagner support to deal with the growing insurgency. that reliance led france to end its military operation in mali last year. bbc arabic�*s feras kilani is the firstjournalist to travel to northern mali since french forces left. he made the dangerous journey with producer mohamed ebrahim and cameraman dany abi khalil. the start of a thousand mile journey across vast deserts to an unseen conflict, where wagner fighters clash with jihadists and rebel groups. it's impossible to operate here without a convoy of heavy security. i'm dressing to blend in. it's a dangerous and difficult journey in the north of mali, but it's the only way to reach camps like this one. this is the only school in the area. these children are being taught to recite verses from the koran. it's the only education they are ever likely to receive. they are orphans who lived in an area controlled by al-qaeda until the islamic state attacked and killed their parents. we have spent five days on the road to reach this remote camp. these children's stories may have been hidden from the world, but they are another generation whose lives were destroyed by the so—called islamic state. fatima, along with her daughter and grandchildren, walked hundreds of miles from the village they lived in to reach the camp. translation: islamic state forced us to come here. - they forced us to come here. all our men were killed. they burned all our food. there's little in the way of medicine or food. and some of the children are suffering from a fever. translation: when we arrived, we found water and shelter, - so we stayed here. jihadists are on the retreat in the middle east. but the grip of the african sahel region is growing. most of the people in this camp used to live in towns and villages that were controlled by a group linked to al-qaeda. moussa, like many here, is supportive of al-qaeda, which is made up of local people from mali. he says he prefers their strict but ordered way of governing to the more violent one practiced by islamic state. translation: al-qaeda treats us according to islam. - is doesn't treat us as muslims. is says it's looking for al-qaeda, but in reality, it only kills innocent people. it burned their homes, their livestock and their shops. this is not how you treat muslims. al-qaeda helps us. it commands us to pray and follow the religion of the prophet. as the conflict between the jihadist groups increased, help from the west was pushed aside as support on the street for russia grew. many in mali look to wagner and yevgeny prigozhin, and the military operation by the french ended as the mercenary group's fighters took up arms in mali. just days ago, prigozhin appeared in this video, promising to rid countries of islamist threats. some of his supporters claim the clip was filmed in africa, possibly even in mali. translation: the wagner group conducts reconnaissance - and search activities. we make russia even greater on all continents and africa even more free. we are forjustice and happiness for the african peoples. we terrify islamic state, al-qaeda and other gangsters. even before prigozhin's death, sites like this made the west suspicious of the mercenary group's ambitions in africa. and here is one of the reasons why wagner is fighting here in mali. natural resources like this gold make a huge profit for the group. this is one of mali's many gold processing plants. it's only a small operation, with little heavy machinery, and much of the panning and smelting done by hand. but with hundreds of sites like this across the country, mali manages to produce more than 60 tonnes of gold a year — making it one of africa's top five exporters. wagner has also been accused of human rights violations in africa. these pictures, released by the french military before they left, allegedly show fighters burying bodies in a mass grave in eastern mali. bilal ag acherif, the leader of an arab rebel group in the area, told us wagner had not helped the security situation in mali. translation: in the areas of wagner are operating in, in north and central mali, they committed a lot of crimes, taking people's belongings, killing innocent people indiscriminately. they have had no positive effect on security in the areas they operate in. 0n the contrary, there are more displaced people leaving these areas. in addition to this chaos, there is a growing power vacuum. un bases like this one are pulling out, leaving more areas under thejihadist and russian influence. the chaos we have seen during ourjourney is spreading across the region. but as it grows, there's very little russia or the west can do to stop it. now, to discuss this further i'm joined by former uk ambassador to the us, lord darroch of kew, from washington dc by evelyn farkas, former us deputy assistant secretary of defense for russia, ukraine, eurasia, and by michael nwankpa, the director at the centre for african conflict and development in london. and in the studio, a globalfellow at the cannon institute. michael nwankpa, you get a sense from that film of the humanitarian situation for the people of mali, the un withdrawing of the french gone, it is a catastrophe? it withdrawing of the french gone, it is a catastrophe?— is a catastrophe? it is. i would arree. is a catastrophe? it is. i would agree- it _ is a catastrophe? it is. i would agree- it is — is a catastrophe? it is. i would agree- it is a _ is a catastrophe? it is. i would agree. it is a huge _ is a catastrophe? it is. i would l agree. it is a huge catastrophe. is a catastrophe? it is. i would - agree. it is a huge catastrophe. for the people. it is very bleak. it does sound very bleak. and the people. it is very bleak. it does sound very bleak. and what would you _ does sound very bleak. and what would you say — does sound very bleak. and what would you say about _ does sound very bleak. and what would you say about how- does sound very bleak. and what would you say about how and - does sound very bleak. and what - would you say about how and whether the suspected death of yevgeny prigozhin will have an impact? the death of prigozhin will have an impact? tue: death of yevgeny prigozhin will have an impact? tte: death of yevgeny prigozhin, prigozhin will have an impact? tt9 death of yevgeny prigozhin, its impact is only in terms of creating some kind of confusion. but i do not think in the long run it will have any serious impact. if anything, what it reveals to us is who is really in charge. the wagner group or the russian government, and we knew all along that vladimir putin was in charge and this only confirms that. i do not see any massive change in terms of the wagner group continuing the broader agenda of the russian government.— russian government. evelyn farkas, do ou russian government. evelyn farkas, do you agree — russian government. evelyn farkas, do you agree with — russian government. evelyn farkas, do you agree with that _ russian government. evelyn farkas, do you agree with that assessment? j russian government. evelyn farkas, l do you agree with that assessment? i was nodding, clearly the wagner group _ was nodding, clearly the wagner group ell— was nodding, clearly the wagner group all along has been doing the dirty work. — group all along has been doing the dirty work, frankly, at the russian government. they kept an arm's length _ government. they kept an arm's length relationship so that the leaders — length relationship so that the leaders who were hiring the wagner group _ leaders who were hiring the wagner group could say we are not inviting in en— group could say we are not inviting in an occupying foreign force to help— in an occupying foreign force to help us— in an occupying foreign force to help us maintain power and fight insurgents, we are actually inviting insurgents, we are actually inviting in this— insurgents, we are actually inviting in this private force. but that was already— in this private force. but that was alreadyjust a cover, the private force _ alreadyjust a cover, the private force was— alreadyjust a cover, the private force was controlled by the kremlin, and it— force was controlled by the kremlin, and it remains to be seen whether it can continue — and it remains to be seen whether it can continue to be this arm's length force _ can continue to be this arm's length force or— can continue to be this arm's length force or whether the kremlin will take more — force or whether the kremlin will take more direct control. i suspect they want— take more direct control. i suspect they want to leave some deniability, for the _ they want to leave some deniability, for the african and middle eastern and other— for the african and middle eastern and other leaders who have invited these _ and other leaders who have invited these russian forces onto their territory — these russian forces onto their territo . g , these russian forces onto their territo ., , , :, :, territory. just before we move on, this was rrot _ territory. just before we move on, this was not just _ territory. just before we move on, this was not just about _ territory. just before we move on, this was notjust about geopoliticsj this was notjust about geopolitics for russia and wagner, this was about huge amounts of financial stuff they are getting, from the gold and the timber, tell us about that. qt gold and the timber, tell us about that. : :, , , , that. of course. this is win- win, for who? — that. of course. this is win- win, for who? for— that. of course. this is win- win, for who? for the _ that. of course. this is win- win, for who? for the ordinary - that. of course. this is win- win, for who? for the ordinary african j for who? for the ordinary african people, who unfortunately have this anti—western sentiment, and for them it is a lose— lose situation. but for the authoritarian government, the wagner group and the kremlin, for sustaining power, they gain power and they back—up the kremlin, the wagner group. russia and the wagner group in exchange get their hand into the pie. tt t wagner group in exchange get their hand into the pie.— hand into the pie. ifi can bring in here, if hand into the pie. ifi can bring in here. if we _ hand into the pie. ifi can bring in here, if we move _ hand into the pie. ifi can bring in here, if we move on _ hand into the pie. ifi can bring in here, if we move on to _ hand into the pie. ifi can bring in here, if we move on to the - hand into the pie. ifi can bring in here, if we move on to the wider| here, if we move on to the wider issues around the reported death of prigozhin, what does it mean for president putin? what are his next moves? tt president putin? what are his next moves? , : :, , , ., moves? it is clear he is trying to reassert his _ moves? it is clear he is trying to reassert his power— moves? it is clear he is trying to reassert his power but _ moves? it is clear he is trying to reassert his power but the - moves? it is clear he is trying to reassert his power but the big i reassert his power but the big question— reassert his power but the big question is, can he? and i think, prigozhin's — question is, can he? and i think, prigozhin's mutiny and the way he was killed — prigozhin's mutiny and the way he was killed has exposed there are many— was killed has exposed there are many more tensions below the surface than we _ many more tensions below the surface than we have been noticing before. and clearly, having suppressed the democratic opposition in russia, putin— democratic opposition in russia, putin is— democratic opposition in russia, putin is facing increasingly fractious but the nationalist right of the _ fractious but the nationalist right of the opposition, and we will see as russia — of the opposition, and we will see as russia moves towards elections in the next _ as russia moves towards elections in the next year, those groups taking more _ the next year, those groups taking more and — the next year, those groups taking more and more assertive roles and there _ more and more assertive roles and there will— more and more assertive roles and there will be a lot of divisions, there will be a lot of divisions, the death— there will be a lot of divisions, the death of prigozhin has not moved away from _ the death of prigozhin has not moved away from tensions between the security— away from tensions between the security services and the military, between — security services and the military, between the military and the private military— between the military and the private military companies, and it will be very difficult for somebodyjust to take what — very difficult for somebodyjust to take what is left behind not only by prigozhin _ take what is left behind not only by prigozhin but the leadership of the wagner— prigozhin but the leadership of the wagner group which died with him. and then _ wagner group which died with him. and then transfer to someone else. they will_ and then transfer to someone else. they will be taken apart, different pieces. _ they will be taken apart, different pieces, and it is not very clear whether— pieces, and it is not very clear whether they will be able to recreate such an effective machine. lord darroch, your assessment of the next steps for president putin? t next steps for president putin? i think he will be happy with what has happened _ think he will be happy with what has happened with — think he will be happy with what has happened with prigozhin _ think he will be happy with what has happened with prigozhin because i happened with prigozhin because whatever— happened with prigozhin because whatever lies _ happened with prigozhin because whatever lies behind _ happened with prigozhin because whatever lies behind it, - happened with prigozhin because whatever lies behind it, whetherl whatever lies behind it, whether there _ whatever lies behind it, whether there was— whatever lies behind it, whether there was a _ whatever lies behind it, whether there was a bomb _ whatever lies behind it, whether there was a bomb on _ whatever lies behind it, whether there was a bomb on the - whatever lies behind it, whether there was a bomb on the plane i whatever lies behind it, whether. there was a bomb on the plane or whatever— there was a bomb on the plane or whatever it — there was a bomb on the plane or whatever it was, _ there was a bomb on the plane or whatever it was, prigozhin, - there was a bomb on the plane or whatever it was, prigozhin, a - there was a bomb on the plane or. whatever it was, prigozhin, a month or so— whatever it was, prigozhin, a month or so after— whatever it was, prigozhin, a month or so after his — whatever it was, prigozhin, a month or so after his attempted _ whatever it was, prigozhin, a month or so after his attempted mutiny, i whatever it was, prigozhin, a month or so after his attempted mutiny, is| or so after his attempted mutiny, is dead _ or so after his attempted mutiny, is dead and _ or so after his attempted mutiny, is dead and that _ or so after his attempted mutiny, is dead. and that will _ or so after his attempted mutiny, is dead. and that will confirm - or so after his attempted mutiny, is dead. and that will confirm two - dead. and that will confirm two people — dead. and that will confirm two people that _ dead. and that will confirm two people that in _ dead. and that will confirm two people that in this _ dead. and that will confirm two people that in this gangster - dead. and that will confirm two l people that in this gangster state that russia — people that in this gangster state that russia has _ people that in this gangster state that russia has become, - people that in this gangster state that russia has become, but - people that in this gangster state that russia has become, but arel that russia has become, but are putin— that russia has become, but are putin is— that russia has become, but are putin is still— that russia has become, but are putin is still the _ that russia has become, but are putin is still the godfather. - that russia has become, but are putin is still the godfather. butl putin is still the godfather. but longer— putin is still the godfather. but longer ternr, _ putin is still the godfather. but longerterm, of— putin is still the godfather. but longer term, of course, - putin is still the godfather. but longer term, of course, as - putin is still the godfather. but . longer term, of course, as others have _ longer term, of course, as others have said. — longer term, of course, as others have said. what _ longer term, of course, as others have said, what has _ longer term, of course, as others have said, what has happened - longer term, of course, as others i have said, what has happened here illustrates — have said, what has happened here illustrates the _ have said, what has happened here illustrates the tensions _ have said, what has happened here illustrates the tensions beneath - have said, what has happened here| illustrates the tensions beneath the surface _ illustrates the tensions beneath the surface in — illustrates the tensions beneath the surface. in russia, _ illustrates the tensions beneath the surface. in russia, putin— illustrates the tensions beneath the surface. in russia, putin does - illustrates the tensions beneath the surface. in russia, putin does not l surface. in russia, putin does not have everything _ surface. in russia, putin does not have everything his _ surface. in russia, putin does not have everything his own— surface. in russia, putin does not have everything his own way- surface. in russia, putin does not have everything his own way and. have everything his own way and there _ have everything his own way and there are — have everything his own way and there are people _ have everything his own way and there are people he _ have everything his own way and there are people he cannot - have everything his own way andi there are people he cannot trust, people _ there are people he cannot trust, people with — there are people he cannot trust, people with different _ there are people he cannot trust, people with different views - there are people he cannot trust, people with different views on . there are people he cannot trust, i people with different views on how the war— people with different views on how the war should _ people with different views on how the war should be _ people with different views on how the war should be conducted - people with different views on how the war should be conducted or- the war should be conducted or whether— the war should be conducted or whether it _ the war should be conducted or whether it should _ the war should be conducted or whether it should be _ the war should be conducted or whether it should be conducted the war should be conducted or. whether it should be conducted at all. whether it should be conducted at all so _ whether it should be conducted at all so the — whether it should be conducted at all. so the situation _ whether it should be conducted at all. so the situation there - all. so the situation there continues— all. so the situation there continues to _ all. so the situation there continues to look - all. so the situation there - continues to look unpredictable and unstable _ continues to look unpredictable and unstable and — continues to look unpredictable and unstable and dangerous. _ continues to look unpredictable and i unstable and dangerous. meanwhile, as others— unstable and dangerous. meanwhile, as others have — unstable and dangerous. meanwhile, as others have said, _ unstable and dangerous. meanwhile, as others have said, i— unstable and dangerous. meanwhile, as others have said, i suspect - unstable and dangerous. meanwhile, as others have said, i suspect that. as others have said, i suspect that one way— as others have said, i suspect that one way or— as others have said, i suspect that one way or another, _ as others have said, i suspect that one way or another, whether- as others have said, i suspect thati one way or another, whether under more _ one way or another, whether under more controlled _ one way or another, whether under more controlled from _ one way or another, whether under more controlled from the _ one way or another, whether under more controlled from the russian i more controlled from the russian security— more controlled from the russian security forces _ more controlled from the russian security forces were _ more controlled from the russian security forces were still - more controlled from the russian i security forces were still somewhat separate, _ security forces were still somewhat separate, the — security forces were still somewhat separate, the wagner— security forces were still somewhat separate, the wagner group - security forces were still somewhat separate, the wagner group or- separate, the wagner group or something — separate, the wagner group or something like _ separate, the wagner group or something like it _ separate, the wagner group or something like it will— separate, the wagner group or something like it will continue i separate, the wagner group or. something like it will continue to do the _ something like it will continue to do the stuff— something like it will continue to do the stuff it — something like it will continue to do the stuff it is _ something like it will continue to do the stuff it is doing _ something like it will continue to do the stuff it is doing in - something like it will continue to do the stuff it is doing in africa l do the stuff it is doing in africa because — do the stuff it is doing in africa because that _ do the stuff it is doing in africa because that is in _ do the stuff it is doing in africa because that is in support of. because that is in support of the russian — because that is in support of the russian state _ because that is in support of the russian state objectives, - because that is in support of the russian state objectives, and iti because that is in support of the. russian state objectives, and it is bad for— russian state objectives, and it is bad for africa _ russian state objectives, and it is bad for africa. and _ russian state ob'ectives, and it is bad for africa._ bad for africa. and the view from america when — bad for africa. and the view from america when it _ bad for africa. and the view from america when it comes _ bad for africa. and the view from america when it comes to - bad for africa. and the view from america when it comes to a - bad for africa. and the view from - america when it comes to a president putin and where we go from here? t putin and where we go from here? i think putin has severely weakened. the beginning of the end of the putin— the beginning of the end of the putin era — the beginning of the end of the putin era started when he conducted the full— putin era started when he conducted the full frontal invasion of ukraine in fehruary— the full frontal invasion of ukraine in february 2022. and then another marker— in february 2022. and then another marker was— in february 2022. and then another marker was when prigozhin marched on moscow— marker was when prigozhin marched on moscow unimpeded. and of course now that the _ moscow unimpeded. and of course now that the killing of prigozhin at the hands _ that the killing of prigozhin at the hands of— that the killing of prigozhin at the hands of putin does not necessarily make _ hands of putin does not necessarily make it _ hands of putin does not necessarily make it very strong, he had to do this to _ make it very strong, he had to do this to try— make it very strong, he had to do this to try to _ make it very strong, he had to do this to try to relearn the elites and demonstrate some sort of strength— and demonstrate some sort of strength but it also happened at a time when he could not leave the country _ time when he could not leave the country because he is under an arrest — country because he is under an arrest warrant by the international criminal— arrest warrant by the international criminal court for abducting hundreds of ukrainian children, and he also _ hundreds of ukrainian children, and he also sent— hundreds of ukrainian children, and he also sent a probe to the moon for the first— he also sent a probe to the moon for the first time in 50 years and it crashed — the first time in 50 years and it crashed. so he is looking weak on the international stage and, frankly, _ the international stage and, frankly, by doing this he is trying to shore — frankly, by doing this he is trying to shore himself optimistically but it does— to shore himself optimistically but it does not make him look stronger and i_ it does not make him look stronger and i think— it does not make him look stronger and i think there will be

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