connolly. ukraine says russia is "trying to destroy" the last group of soldiers holding the azovstal steelworks in mariupol. the kremlin denies storming the complex, but vladimir putin urges ukrainian troops to surrender. the world health organization says the true total of deaths in the covid pandemic is 15 million, nearly three times higher than had been reported. and the return of royal garden parties after covid, but buckingham palace says the queen won't be attending this year. hello and welcome to bbc news — interest rates have risen to the highest level in 13 years as the bank of england tries to curb soaring price rises. rates have gone up for the 4th time since december — from 0.75% to 1%. inflation, the rate at which prices are increasing, is also expected to hit more than 10 per cent by the end of the year — the highest level for a0 years. it's being driven by rising fuel, energy and food costs — partly due to the war in ukraine. and there's more bad news — the economy was predicted to grow next year by more than i% — now the bank of england expects it to shrink by 0.25% amid warnings of a real risk now of recession. 0ur economics editor faisal islam has the details. butter seems to be the biggest price impact. at this nottingham deli, they don't need the bank of england to tell them inflation is surging in a way we haven't seen in a generation. as much as you try to stop passing on the price rises, that's gone now. we have to cut our cloth according to our means. that's it. energy prices and raw materials costs are contributing to the bank of england now predicting even faster rises in prices, with the headline rate of inflation forecast to hit over 10% by the end of the year. as a result, the bank's predictions for the economy are being slashed over the next two years, with the economy forecast to shrink next year. outside, the city centre is a tale of two types, vacancy sign, jobs vacancies but vacant commercial property showing and economy yet to fully recover from pandemic lockdowns now facing another black cloud. i am going to give it this year to see if it picks up any. if not... you are going to give up? i can't keep living on my savings. what's becoming clear in the data is the cost of living squeeze, as rising prices impacting upon disposable income, that's starting to have its own impact on the economy generally, with some fearing the economy is starting to shrink. that word "recession" is starting to rear its head. it seems to be a combination of recession stag—inflation with high inflation this year. yes, we are in a very difficult position, and i have used this analogy quite a bit, i'll use it again. we are walking a very narrow path between, on the one side, inflation, which is far higher than it should be and we want it to be, and on the other side, because we are being hit by big external shocks, which are causing inflation, that are so big, they are causing a big loss of real income to people and businesses in this country. that's a long way... in long eaton, jamesjust heard the news about a £1600 a year increase in energy bills for the three—bedroom semi his family own. direct debits already increasing by phenomenal amounts. you have to make adjustments. we'd like to do more events and holidays and whatnot but are having to rein it in. like millions, cloth is having to be cut according to circumstances. we are not using the tumble dryer because thatjust canes the electricity. we have not had it too bad with the weather, so we have been able to dry outside, and we do that as often as we can. and making sure we are turning things off, even the tv from standby. it's small amounts, but over the year, it adds up. and yet the answer to the inflation seen on energy metres is a further squeeze on household mortgage costs, with the bank of england raising interest rates to i%, the highest ever since 2009. rates up, even as there are warnings of recession, as the bank walks the trickiest tightrope. 0ur economics editor, faisal islam, has been explaining how much difference raising interest rates will make. in an ordinary situation rates would go up to temporary inflation because you've got a booming economy. that's not the situation right now. so when you put that to the bank of england what they say is there is not much we can do about inflation hitting that 10% mark at the end of the year. what we are trying to do is avoid people and businesses trying to set their wages and their prices assuming that that 10% will be there the year after and the year after that's because then inflation starts to generate of its own accord. so that's what this rate rise is about. but certainly that's why some on the committee sent an even bigger rate rise of half a percent but when you put it mix you see a reaction in the markets today where the sterling is down by 2% and what that shows to us is people think that rates while they will go up further they might not go up as far as we thought they were so may be more like 2% but not two and a half or 3% when this rates rise are over and done with. well as energy prices and bills continue to surge — the energy giant shell has announced record profits of more than seven billion pounds for the first quarter of this year. the figure has nearly trebled compared with the same period last year. our business editor simonjack reports. near rotterdam, europe's biggest refinery owned by europe's biggest energy company. never in its "5—year history has shell made more money than in the first three months of this year. shell made underlying profits of £7.2 billion in the first three months of the year, triple the amount they made in the same period last year put up the global price of oil, already high at the end of last year, as the world economy emerged from its covid slumber, surged again on concerns the conflict in ukraine see russian oil supplies disrupted or boycotted. similar with gas, the price smashed records earlier this year. russia is the worlds biggest export of gas and europe is its biggest customer. those global prices have been reflected on uk forecourts and in uk energy bills. what is shell going to do with that money? in the first three months of the year, it gave over £4 million to its shareholders, including millions of uk pension savers. it's also promised to invest up to £25 billion in the uk over the next decade, mainly on renewables and low carbon technology, but some new oil and gas to help improve the uk's future energy security. the government has so far resisted calls from opposition parties for a windfall tax on oil and gas profits. the convenience store chain mccoll�*s is on the brink of collapse — potentially putting thousands ofjobs at risk. the retailer said in a statement it was "increasingly likely" it would fall into administration unless it could find new sources of funding. but it stressed discussions are still ongoing. mccoll�*s employs more than 16—thousand people and has a partnership with the supermarket morrisons. vladimir putin has called on ukrainian troops holed up in the steel works in the city of mariupol to surrender. it is the last stronghold of ukraininan resistance in the city and around 200 civilians are thought to be sheltering in its underground tunnels and bunkers. the commander leading ukranian troops holed up inside says "difficult, bloody battles" are being fought. russia has also been bombing other cities in the region as it tries to secure more territory in the east of the country. this report from our eastern europe correspondent sarah rainsford comtains flashing images from the start. they struck in the dead of night. and here is what they hit. the air raid sirens still wailing as they led revealed the destruction. russia talked about its precision missiles and military targets. it never admits to any of this. but every day more lives in ukraine are shattered. this is kramatorsk in the east. ludmilla says a wall collapsed. she was buried in rubble in her own bed. hours earlier, more people had finally reached safety from mariupol, the port city besieged for weeks that is under russian control. apart from its steelworks. ukrainian fighters are still holding out here. they say civilians, even children, are still trapped in bunkers. one of the commanders has made a new call for help to evacuate the civilians as well as wounded and dead soldiers. ukrainians are following their fate closely, especially in places like bucha, which survived its own nightmare. russia's war on ukraine has destroyed businesses, ruined houses and wrecked lives. here in bucha, even a month after russian troops were forced back, people's horror stories of life under occupation are still spilling out. there were queues for food at the local scout hut because many lost everything in this war. kalina tells me russian soldiers stole all her savings. even her granddaughter�*s jewellery, while the family cowered in fear in their vegetable cellar. in moscow, russian troops are rehearsing their annual proud parade, all this to mark soviet victory in world war ii. in ukraine, their shells are hitting playgrounds and apartment blocks. and we'll have more on the situation in ukraine when my colleague ben brown takes questions sent in to us by you the audience and puts them to a panel of experts in the programme, your questions answered: war in ukraine. that's coming up a little later this hour. the covid pandemic has caused the deaths of almost 15 million people around the world — according to the world health organisation. that's almost three times higher than the number of deaths that have been officially reported. india is one of the worst affected countries. our global health correspondent naomi grimley reports. mum was the one be looked up to. she was always happy. this family just before the pandemic started. even after the virus began spreading in india, covid still seemed remote. forget about corona, lockdown... but in august 2020, family members fell ill one by one. and a 71—year—old died in hospital. we were shattered. we never thought this could happen. day by day, i could see she was slowly deteriorating. ijust has to help her do keep going, try to go on. her death would have been recorded, but millions were not. the who now thinks india's deaths were ten times the official count. russia under counter, too, with excess deaths at 3.5 times what was recorded. it is thought 5.5 million people died from covid in the first year of the pandemic, but because of patchy testing, poor record—keeping in some parts of the world, and the fact that some people died of unrelated causes during lockdowns, the world health organization now thinks that figure might be more like 15 million. it is a tragedy. this is a staggering number, and we have to hold policymakers accountable. and if we do not count, we will miss the opportunity to be better prepared for the next time. brazil was at the epicentre of the pandemic for a while, and saw deaths on a mass scale. a nurse from sao paulo lost her grandmother, but had to carry on working rather than grieve. translation: soon after, i i had to work in the covid icu. the patients reminded me of her because they were the same age. they remind me of my grandmother. here, britain had excess mortality rates above the global average. it was on a par with germany, better than italy, but not as good as france. a reminder that this pandemic was tough even for some of the wealthiest nations. naomi grimley, bbc news. sport and for a full round—up, from the bbc sport centre, here's gavin. football is starting? that is right. it's all picking off. we're all set for another big night of european football. west ham and rangers are the british sides involved in europa league semifinal action, both up against german opposition for their second leg matches. rangers are at ibrox, against rb leipzig — the favourites. they're a goal down from the first leg. it is goalless at the moment. and west ham are looking to make first major european final in 46 years. they're at eintracht frankfurt — 2—1 down from the first leg. and it's crunch time in the europa conference this evening too — leicester, playing in theirfirst ever european semifinal, are level with roma from the first leg. it's 1—0 roma, england striker tammy abraham, in the stadio 0lympico. and the other game sees feyenoord in france to marseilles, the dutch side with a 3—2 lead from the first leg. in tennis, dan evans was knocked out of the madrid open in straight sets by andrey rublev. the british number two had his chances. he broke rublev in the opening game of the match, and then had set point in the tie break but couldn't capitalise, losing the opening set. rublev took the second set 7—5 to win in just under two hours, 30 minutes. earlier, andy murray pulled out of his match against novak djokovic in the third round through illness. murray was going into the match in good form, having already knocked out 2020 us open champion dominic thiem and canada's denis shapovalov. essex have been fined £50,000 by the england and wales cricket board after pleading guilty to two charges relating to a racist comment made at a board meeting in 2017. the club were charged over the comment itself and their failure to conduct an appropriate, orany, investigation. former chairmanjohn faragher has denied making the comment. it's day one of the british masters golf at the famous belfry course near birmingham. but there is a distinct lack of british interest at the top of the leaderboard, with the lead shared by denmark's thorbjoern 0lesen and australian ryan fox. they are both on six under par. england's women lost 4—1 to germany in monchengladbach in theirfinal away fixture of the pro league. the result leaves england in fifth place in the table, eight points behind germany in fourth. england's men also lost to germany in the same competition 3—2 and they lie in seventh. formula i world champion max verstappen took time out of his preparations for this weekend's miami grand prix to throw the first pitch in the mlb game between miami marlins and phoenix diamondbacks. he didn't help miami, as they lost 8—7. and verstappen wasn't the only driver flirting with another sport. lewis hamilton — the man he beat to the fi title last season — has been out playing golf with nfl quarterback tom brady. they were in a team together at a charity event. this weekend's race is the first of two in the states this year. it'll be at the hard rock stadium. there is a part that you are excited and then there is the nervous part. it is a new circuit. there's not a lot of time to practice self fixating when you get out on a new course. you are discovering all the different features of the circuit and surroundings and it's been a dream for us to be in miami. we've been here to see other sports but a voice for it will hopefully earn its right to be here this week and put on a great show for everyone. that's all the sport for now. you can find more on all those stories on the bbc sport website. that's bbc.co.uk/sport let's return to our top story, the decision by the bank of england to raise interest rates in the uk to their highest level for 13 years. they now stand at one per cent. yael selfin is chief economist for the global accountancy firm kpmg. that evening. i would like to go back to basics a family. i would like to ask you first of all why is the bank of england raising interest rates? figs the bank of england raising interest rates? �* , ., ., , rates? as we have all seen in the last few months, _ rates? as we have all seen in the last few months, inflation - rates? as we have all seen in the last few months, inflation has . last few months, inflation has been going up quite a lot and asked expected to go up further this year and the bank of england needs to ask because inflation is way above its target of 2% and is likely to go even further. target of 296 and is likely to go even further.— target of 296 and is likely to go even further. realistically, they have gone _ even further. realistically, they have gone up — even further. realistically, they have gone on to _ even further. realistically, they have gone up to 1% _ even further. realistically, they have gone up to 1% today, - even further. realistically, they have gone up to 1% today, howl even further. realistically, they - have gone up to 1% today, how long does it take for interest rate rises to change our patterns of spending and saving?— to change our patterns of spending and saving? that's a good question because normally _ and saving? that's a good question because normally it _ and saving? that's a good question because normally it takes - and saving? that's a good question because normally it takes at - and saving? that's a good question because normally it takes at least i because normally it takes at least 18 months for an increase in interest rates to impact on the actual real economy and by that stage we are probably expecting inflation to moderate anyway so there's a question as to how effective that is going to be in terms of the green economy but what it does do is potentially influence expectations of people can be serious about combating information and raising interest rates and therefore they will act accordingly. is there an argument that if the bank raises them more quickly now they won't ultimately have to raise them as high? like stitching time saves nine kind of argument? absolutely. this is what we have been hearing from the bank of england today that it may be better to raise rates more quickly in the short term to try and stabilise the inflation and control inflation and have a list need to raise them later on. ~ . , have a list need to raise them later on, ~ ., , ., have a list need to raise them later on. ~ ., , ., _ have a list need to raise them later on. ., , ., _ ~ have a list need to raise them later on. ., , ., _ on. we are being told by the bank of encland on. we are being told by the bank of england that — on. we are being told by the bank of england that inflation _ on. we are being told by the bank of england that inflation could - on. we are being told by the bank of england that inflation could peak- on. we are being told by the bank of england that inflation could peak at. england that inflation could peak at 10%. , ., 10%. does that figure sound right to ou? yes, 10%. does that figure sound right to you? yes. it — 10%. does that figure sound right to you? yes. it is- _ 10%. does that figure sound right to you? yes, it is. it— 10%. does that figure sound right to you? yes, it is. it is— 10%. does that figure sound right to you? yes, it is. it is probably - you? yes, it is. it is probably around what we are likely to see this summer. there are risks around it. we could see inflation coming up even further and in russia we see energy prices going up further. that is one of the risks but ultimately it is important to know you are expecting inflation to moderate quite significantly from next year onwards. ~ , ., ., ., , , m onwards. why would that happen? we have already — onwards. why would that happen? we have already seen _ onwards. why would that happen? we have already seen the _ onwards. why would that happen? we have already seen the big _ onwards. why would that happen? we have already seen the big rise - onwards. why would that happen? we have already seen the big rise in - have already seen the big rise in cost and prices for example. we are not expecting another big height if all goes well in energy and commodity prices. we will come out of the equation. i5 commodity prices. we will come out of the equation.— of the equation. is there a final question. _ of the equation. is there a final question. any _ of the equation. is there a final question, any other _ of the equation. is there a final question, any other way - of the equation. is there a final question, any other way of - of the equation. is there a final - question, any other way of bringing inflation down apart from raising interest rates? to inflation down apart from raising interest rates?— inflation down apart from raising interest rates? to be fair, a lot of what we are _ interest rates? to be fair, a lot of what we are seeing at _ interest rates? to be fair, a lot of what we are seeing at the - interest rates? to be fair, a lot of| what we are seeing at the moment interest rates? to be fair, a lot of. what we are seeing at the moment is down to an external shock that high interest rates can't actually influence and are not directly going to influence energy prices and the problem with supply chains. so a lot of it is trying to manage expectations so that inflation is not going to go out of control and once you do get that initial rise in prices come out of the situation we will not see further increases on the back of that.— the mother of baby p, the toddler who died in 2007 after months of abuse, is set to be freed from prison after the parole board rejected a government challenge against her release. tracey connolly was jailed in 2009 after she admitted causing or allowing the death of her 17—month—old son, peter, at their home in north london. 0ur correspondent andrew plant is here.... i suppose the question is this is a very controversial decision, is this the end of it now? is very controversial decision, is this the end of it now?— the end of it now? is this the final word? i think _ the end of it now? is this the final word? i think it _ the end of it now? is this the final word? ithink it is. _ the end of it now? is this the final word? i think it is. anybody - the end of it now? is this the final word? i think it is. anybody who l word? i think it is. anybody who remembers that case from 2009 will also remember the public outrage and the outcry that it caused. not least of course because of the terrible injuries that may be p suffered. he was only 17 months old when he was found dead. he had more than 50 separate injuries to his body but also because they seem to be so many opportunities missed to intervene during those 17 months. we know he had more than 60 visits from different authorities and the police and social services and children services and was they left in the house. to be effectively tortured to death. three people stood trial and were jailed for their part in that death. his mother tracy, were jailed for their part in that death. his mothertracy, her death. his mother tracy, her partner stephen, and his brotherjason. tracy was given a minimum term of five years. she's actually served 13 years in prison and had three unsuccessful attempts at parole u nsuccessful attem pts at pa role before. unsuccessful attempts at parole before. this was a fourth attempt. it was approved in march by the parole board and it was immediately met by a challenge from the government who said it was a rationale but today a seniorjudge says it's not a rationale and the parole should be allowed so it looks like she will be released at some point in the next few weeks. i don't think there's anything more the government can do about that but the justice secretary has responded. he said what tracy did it back in 2007 was evil and he thinks it's merits a complete overhaul of the parole service and has suggested perhaps when it comes to the release of the most serious offenders perhaps some sort of ministerial oversight might be needed in the future. the actress amber heard says she was attacked by her former husband jonny depp because of her professional relationship with the actorjames franco. taking the stand for a second day as part of a multi—million dollar defamation trial in the united states, amber heard castjonny depp as deeply troubled byjealousy and drugs. he is suing her over an article in which she said she was a victim of abuse — she is countersuing. david sillito has been watching proceedings. day two of amber heard's testimony, and a return to the witness stand to continue her account of her relationship with the man sitting in front of her, johnny depp, her ex—husband, who's suing her for libel after she described herself as a victim of domestic violence. her evidence began with photographs she'd taken to catalogue what she says was his drink and drug problems. you know, there was no... just his employees and everyone who had been taking care of him versus my word. and so i started to take pictures and say, "look, this is happening." addictions, she said, that led to violence. and at some point, hejust whacks me in the face. she went on to describe a confrontation on a plane in which she sastohnny depp accused her of having a relationship with the actorjames franco. she also made a recording of what she says is her ex—husband howling on that plane, another incident in which she says she was assaulted. i feel this boot in my back. hejust kicked me. in the back. throughout it all, johnny depp listened, head down. even as they left court, there was no eye contact with the woman who he says was the one throwing punches in this relationship, not him. david sillito, bbc news. millions of people have been voting in local elections across the uk today. people in northern ireland are choosing who will sit in the next stormont assembly; all councils in scotland and wales are being contested; in england, there are some mayoral elections and more than four thousand seats in 146 local authorities are up for grabs. you can watch the results overnight on bbc one with huw edwards. now it's time for a look at the weather good evening. there's been more strong sunshine on offer today, so it's been warmer more widely. still the odd shower to clear away through this evening, and we do have our weather front up towards the north and west gathering strength, as you can see. so some wetter weather to come overnight for scotland, for northern ireland. and, of course, that will mean a mild night, but it'll be mild further south, generally with some bits of drizzle and mist around the coast in the west and the odd bit of mist inland, which will clear quite quickly. so a different day — firstly for northern ireland, much wetter through the morning, and for northern england then a wetter afternoon for parts of wales. by then drier for scotland and for northern ireland. sunnier, too, hanging onto some sunshine in southern eastern areas, but for much of england and wales, it will cloud over through the day. still very warm, though — 20—21 celsius, and warm, too, in the sunshine following on behind. into the weekend, a lot of dry, settleed weather is promised for many. just perhaps a little rain in the north and west on sunday. hello, this is bbc news. i'm rebecca jones. the headlines: interest rates rise to 1%, their highest level since 2009. the governor of the bank of england says they could rise further, as the bank tries to deal with soaring inflation. because of this very, very narrow path that we are on, we can see a case in which there will need to be a further rise in bank rate, but it depends how the economy evolves. profits at the energy giant shell almost triple to £7.3 billion in the first three months of this year, its highest ever quarterly figure. the mother of baby p, the toddler who died in 2007 after months of abuse, is set to be released from prison. the parole board has rejected a government challenge against its ruling to release tracey connolly. ukraine says russia is "trying to destroy" the last group of soldiers holding the azovstal steelworks in mariupol. the kremlin denies storming the complex, but vladimir putin urges ukrainian troops to surrender. the world health organization says the true total of deaths in the covid pandemic is 15 million, nearly three times higher than had been reported. and the return of royal garden parties after covid, but buckingham palace as the queen will not be attending this year because of her mobility problems. well, now for a special edition of your questions answered with my colleague ben brown, who's in kyiv, on the war in ukraine. hello and welcome to a special edition of your questions answered on the war in ukraine. i am been brown in kyiv —— ben brown. and you've been sending in your questions on war here. to answer, i'm joined by a panel of guests. from north london, justin bronk is a senior fellow and expert on the use of air power at the defence and security think tank, the royal united services institute. from birmingham, we have kataryna wolczuk, who is professor of politics at the centre for russian, european and eurasian studies at the university of birmingham, and an associate fellow at chatham house. and from oxford, we are joined by the bbc�*s world affair�*s editorjohn simpson. 0urfinal guest is here in kyiv with me, the ukrainian mp kira rudyk, who is also leader of the holos party. welcome to you as well. thanks to all my guests. let's go to our first question and stay with kira rudyk. josh has messaged in, asking, "what is the most likely way this war will end? "and will it be a long time before it does?" what is the most likely way this ends, do you think? the most preferable for us is that russia is weakened to the point when she does not have an ability to continue the war. the tool back the troops and then we continue living they pull back the troops and then we continue living in our beautiful country. but when you ask me about the timeline, look at the sanctions the eu is putting together that will start acting in six months. so now you know, at least the minimum time. we see that all the sanctions, all the weapons, itjust takes time to get here and to start acting. so i think we need to prepare for a long marathon, rather than a sprint, as everybody thought before. isn't the most likely way this war ends some sort of peace negotiation over the territory that has already been taken by russia, in which they keep some of the east of this country? we, in ukraine, still hope and will pursue getting back this territory, getting back our people. because there is no way for any politician, any ukrainian to say, "ok, this is what we will give up," because we don't want to give up, because we think that we can win and take it back, because we see what is happening to the people on this territory, you have seen yourself what happened in bucha, what is happening in mariupol — we don't want this for any of our citizens, for anyone in the world. that is why we will be fighting for this territory, why we will try not to get into any peaceful negotiations. thank you very much. this is one for our military analystjustin bronk. which way is the currently dealing and how do you see it panning out? how do you see it panning out and what is your military analysis of what is your military analysis of what is your military analysis of what is happening on the battleground? we are seeing the last major effort the peacetime russian mobilised army can make. they started out with about 168 battalion tactical groups that the russian army can generate and sustain. they deployed about 120 to ukraine. if you look at the vehicle losses, they have taken — visually comfirmed — about 3,500, more than 600 tanks, 60 of those 120 of their tank companies fully wiped out, and if you look at killed and wounded in action, about 15,000 estimated killed in action, probably three times that captured, wounded and missing. this is a huge proportion of an attacking force and it will be disproportionately represented in the vehicle and infantry crews who make up quite a small proportion in terms of people. what the russians are doing in donbas is try and make a breakthrough, coming up from around mariupol in the south. if they can do that and cut off the forces, which is looking increasingly unlikely, they might be able to stabilise a new contact from kharkiv into the south, then settle into a war of attrition. if they cannot, over the next three weeks, the russian regular army has largely spent its force in terms of what it can sustain. the question is whether ukraine can force similar retreats from that occupied territory as we saw around kyiv and kharkiv up in the north in the first phase. a lot depends on the next two weeks. thank you very much indeed. 0ur our next question comes from nigel in the uk. why are oil and gas supplies not shut off now? the international perspective, and what the european union and other nations around the world should do in terms of international pressure. yes, oil and gas basically fundsl the war machine of the kremlin. 1 billion euros per day is paid to russia from europe. - and yet, this is a very difficult and divisive question. - we have seen the latest wave l of sanctions when the eu said it will basically phase russian oil crude imports in six months. l this is a big step, _ because countries like germany are very dependent on, _ and especially the german economic might depends on stable - and reliable energy supplies. and yet, despite this difficulty, . the eu has been able to take this enormous step, and this is not an easy step to take, - because the infrastructure to supplyl from russia to europe has been built since the 1970s. that dependence was used - to precisely dissuade the countries in europe to actually stand up to russia. i we see now poland and bulgaria being punished, to scare - other eu member states, - but poland has done its homework and it seems that other eu - member states are now scrambling to minimise dependence. what was impossible two months ago, it is now possible. thank you for that. john simpson, this is a question from morison kpaka, in freetown, sierra leone. "what will happen if president putin succeeds in invading ukraine?" i suppose the flip side of that question, which i am adding in, is what if he does not succeed, what if he fails with this invasion? i do not actually think he is going to succeed. at least not in the terms he wants to. i think the parallel here is with stalin's invasion of finland in 1939, when they were certain the red army was just going to walk all over the fins. it did not happen. the fins responded, but they could not, finally, just like ukraine, it is not big enough to be able to stand out permanently, so they lost some territory but they kept their independence. i think that is the most likely outcome. but it could end in different ways. it could and with just a long, bitter years of years of hostility and anger flaring bitter years of years of hostility and angerflaring up from time to time. 0r there is the really dangerous possibility that president putin might simply lose patience and start to use tactical nuclear weapons. to be honest, if that happens, then all bets are off and i don't know where we... ..what might happen. but my guess is that won't happen, that president putin will declare victory at some stage and walk away and tell the russian people that it has been a fantastic success. john, thank you very much. let's come back to my guest here in kyiv, the ukrainian member of parliament. mark in ilkley asks, "in the average small towns and villages "away from the donbas and other contested areas, "is life relatively normal?" is there any kind of normality in the areas of this country that are not at the centre of the fighting? as you have seen, recently, there were attacks on the western ukrainian cities such as lviv and the outskirts. so putin is telling us, "there is no place in ukraine "where you can feel safe. "there is nowhere you can feel normal, you can move your business, "live your normal life." the hits on the western part of ukraine recently also says the same thing. so, no, right now, there is no normality. everybody is trying to support our army the best we can and sending the product, support, whatever we can get to the front. we are getting a lot of refugees coming from the eastern part to the western and every ukrainian is opening their homes to the people who lost their homes at war. so there is no normality and there will not be until we win. thank you very much indeed. back to our defence and military expert. this is a question about airpower. "when will ukraine be able to defend itself from these "horrible air strikes, without sufficient war "planes of their own? " that's from cairn in sweden. what do you say about airpower and the struggle for airpower in this country at the moment? it is quite interesting that what are often reported as air strikes throughout the country, including as we've just heard in lviv and other parts of the west as well as kyiv, are mostly cruise missile and ballistic missile strikes, mostly what we would term stand—off missile strikes, because russia does not have the ability to conduct air strikes with aircraft deep into ukraine, because ukraine still maintains a significant capacity to defend its own airspace. primarily with surface to air missiles. long—range systems, which were somewhat effective in the first week in particular, although it had a re—supply, as well as a lot of elevens, fifteens and short—term and medium—range systems which are mobile and difficult for the russians to hit. the russians cannot hit at mobile and high—level in most of the country so have resorted to a lot of low—level attacks. what we saw in the air strikes have been very close to russian—controlled airspace and at night with unguided weapons and low level — mariupol, kharkiv, chernihiv. in donbas, what is happening is that most areas have air denial, short range, some systems have taken more, the russians have more ability to operate in the medium and high altitude area but have to come now to have a battlefield effect because they don't have enough precision—guided munitions, so they have to come low so the shoulder fired systems are very effective. while the russians have a degree of air superiority in donbas and the south around mariupol, they struggle to use it to hit targets that are not fixed or in cities. 0n the battlefield, it does not matter as much and the ukrainians are shooting down a lot of aircraft. for the ukrainian air force, it's difficult to operate more than at low level because russia has a lot of systems, long amd medium and short range, as well as fighter patrols on their border. there is neutral airspace denial going on. justin, thank you for that. this is about belarus, russia's ally. and it has been important to russia during all of this. barrie tucker asks, "are the belarusian military "willing to both invade and fight their previously "peaceful ukrainian neighbour on putin's behalf?" we've also had questions asking whether belarus civilians back their government's support for russia. what do you think of that? do you think belarus will send in troops at any stage to help the russians in this war? |there is no doubt whatsoever thatj president putin would like belarus to step in to support, _ but it is a very difficult situation for president lukashenko who is in a very difficult i situation, because this war is unpopular. - belarusian people are very pacifist, they hate war, . because they were the battleground of the second world war. _ the war against ukraine is very- unpopular and lukashenko has to be very careful about antagonising the people because there - is the possibility he will see protests again. _ suzie russell in france asks, "is it unrealistic to assume that "whatever the outcome of the war, putin will ultimately be tried "by an independent international legal process and held accountable "for the war crimes committed in the ukraine?" do you think putin or any of his people, any of his generals or anybody on the russian side, will ever be held accountable, will ever face justice for the allegations of war crime? i think while vladimir putin is strong, and in power and has the support of russian people, which he seems to have at the moment, of course he is very strong at present, then there is absolutely no question of anything like that happening. but if you recall what happened in serbia after the nato bombing of 1999, the president, no question he might be tried for human right violations or anything like it, but what happened was he was overthrown. his successor, in order to reset the relationships with the west, agreed to let him go to the hague to be tried. he died there. and the bosnian serb leaders too are now serving long sentences. the question, really, is, "will somebody get rid "of vladimir putin?" and he will now look weaker. there will be people within the political structure, within russia, who will say this was all a terrible mistake, it was all his fault, and we must do something about it. you can never guarantee what might happen under those circumstances, but there is definitely a possibility that he will be overthrown and i think there is a strong possibility that he, generals, ministers, colonels, soldiers who have carried out appalling war crimes, will be on trial and we know now who many of them are. the people that did the appalling crimes in bucha, for instance, we have got their photographs, we have got their names, and one day, my feeling is one day we will see them tried. i wamt to leave you with some images filmed by my cameraman duncan stone, when we went to bucha and irpin just north of here, to see for ourselves some of the devastation left behind by the russian troops who were here for a few weeks after the invasion, before being driven back. holmes, you can see there, completely destroyed and appalling destruction, really, wherever you look. we saw also where the many hundreds of people who died now are buried in a cemetery that stretches as far as the eye can see, with new graves, where families of the dead still mourning. some of those bodies the victims of alleged war crimes. you've been watching your questions answered. a bbc investigation has found hundreds of fake charity websites have been set up by scammers to profit from the war in ukraine. some of the sites steal details from real charities. we found one which had taken a video and logo from save the children. it has condemned the criminals behind the scams, saying they are stealing both from donors and from the vulnerable people who charities are trying to help. angus crawford reports. out of war, chaos. ukrainian refugees needing shelter and safety. feeding off the destruction, fake charity websites appearing all over the internet. take this one. it looks professional. the only problem is it's fake. there's no charity registration number, and as for the address of the head office, it doesn't even exist. but there is a phone number. i just wanted to ask you a quick question about what the money is being spent on. many refugees, so for food, clothes, travel. how long have you been going as a charity? so he's hung up on me. and like many of these sites, most of these sites, there's no evidence at all that any of the money is actually getting to ukraine. here's another. it's stolen the logo of save the children and one of their videos. so does this make you angry? yeah, it absolutely does. we've got the generosity of the british public, which is being taken advantage of, but then there's also the children that we work with around the world who are not going to get the support that they need because money is being taken away from the genuine good cause. that's shameful, isn't it? it's awful. but it's not only charities. this site copies one raising money for the ukrainian army, stealing the profiles of fighters like tonya, who gets kit to soldiers on the front line. so who's behind these sites, and where are they? take savelifedirect.com. it says it's raised $100,000. it's registered to this man, moussa ibrahim, who's in abuja in nigeria. it says it's raising money for ukraine. yeah, exactly. but it's not, is it? it's not raising any money for ukraine. we are trying to help the ukrainians, you know... really? you say on your website you've already raised $100,000. and yet you're not a charity. and there is no evidence any of your money is going to ukraine. he insists he is sending donations to ukraine, but after we spoke, he took the website down. for ukrainians, the war brings misery. for scammers, it's just another opportunity to make money. angus crawford, bbc news. the royal garden party season is about to get under way for the first time since the pandemic, but the queen won't be attending. instead, she will be represented by other members of the royal family. it comes as she prepares to celebrate her platinum jubilee injune to mark 70 years on the throne. 0ur royal correspondent nicholas witchell reports. garden parties are a major fixed point in the palace's summer programme, almost always attended by the queen, a way of recognising achievements by thousands of people across the united kingdom. of course, there haven't been any garden parties for three years because of covid. and now the palace has confirmed that the queen will not be attending this year's garden parties. once again, the reason being given is that they involve long periods of standing. they are simply too taxing for a 96—year—old. the last time the queen was seen in public was the service of thanksgiving for the life of the duke of edinburgh at the end of march. she has missed a series of events that she would normally attend, the commonwealth day, maundy thursday, and easter sunday services among them. the palace will not be drawn on questions about the's health, she is still completing virtual events from westminster. and according to the palace, she is still hoping to attend the state opening of parliament next tuesday, although a final decision will be taken on the day, since the palace. beyond that, the big question is how visible she will be for the platinum jubilee celebrations next month. nicholas witchell, bbc news. spring has sprung early — in fact, over the decades, it has moved forward by three weeks. a woodland study — looking back to the 1940s — has found great tip birds in wytham woods near 0xford have been laying their eggs earlier than ever before. scientists who have special permission to access their nests are blaming climate change. 0ur science correspondent victoria gill reports. wytham woods near 0xford, a very special site of scientific interest. this year marks the 75th anniversary of the wytham great tit project. scientists have systematically monitored every chick hatched in the nest boxes here since 1947, and we're about to meet the newest generation. wow, how many are there? eight, so that's a very standard size for a great tit. yeah. now, these parents have got a lot of work to do. they've got to find about 10,000 caterpillars for these. 10,000? to get them to fledge? yep. it's precisely because this has been a continuous study for all those decades that researchers have been able to see and to measure the change in the timing of spring here. the 75 years that we've been studying the tits here, we've seen quite a marked shift in the timing of egg laying. so they're now laying about three weeks earlier. the tits here are actually managing to track the other members of their food chain quite well. so both the caterpillars and the eggs have also shifted their timing earlier. so the whole sort of food chain has shifted earlier in spring. the woods were bequeathed to oxford university by a wealthy local family back in 1942. since then, they've been the site of dozens of different scientific projects. but the longest—running is the great tits study, which chris perrins has been involved in for more than half a century. what are your reflections on the seasonal shift? that's fine, unless it gets to limits where the trees or the caterpillars or the birds can't do that shift because it's too big. and that's still a question that...? that's still a big question to answer, and a very interesting one. the work here goes on, and whenever spring happens, it's a busy season for the birds and the scientists, because as our climate changes, these rare, decades—long studies that track exactly how the natural world responds become more important as time goes on. victoria gill, bbc news, wytham wood. weather next. but ijust want to bring you news. paramedics from the great north air ambulance service have taken to the skies in the lake district for the first time wearing jet—packs. it's hoped that they will complete their training and the trials, and be able to fly to patients in distress in the cumbrian mountains as early as this summer. here is the weather. here's helen. good evening. the weather's been a tale of two halves today. certainly more sunshine around than yesterday, particularly across england and wales — and strong sunshine at that. so it's been warmer more widely — we've had 21 degrees celsius and we'll have similar warmth over the coming few days as we've got the south—westerly winds and the azores high with us. but the weather, we realise — temperatures in the high teens, low 20s — will depend on the amount of cloud we have. and we've had rather more cloud further north under a weather front. particularly for the north and west of scotland, that weather front will continue here this evening. 1—2 sharp showers elsewhere, but nowhere near as many as yesterday — fairly isolated, they will fade away. and under the starry skies, it'll be a bit of mist around, probably more mist in coastal and hill fog in southern and western areas, and our weatherfront really starts to pep up. so turning quite wet for northern ireland and scotland through the second part of the night. mild across the board, but a wet start for some tomorrow, some appreciable rain as it meanders its way slowly southwards, we'll see the sunshine returning with just a few showers in the north, the sunshine fading further south. but strong sunshine hanging on in parts of the south and the east, east anglia and southeast england. so 20—21, as we've seen today — cooler for parts of northern england, wales because we've got that cloud and rain, but still quite warm. the other side of that weather front when the sunshine comes out for the likes of eastern scotland. does mean that we'll see fewer areas with high levels of tree pollen tomorrow. but nevertheless, it's still high in southern and eastern areas where we keep the sunshine. now that rain will eventually reach southern areas — some uncertainty as to how much we'll see, but perhaps a dampening for the ground before that azores high re—establishes itself for much of the weekend — just the northwest, i think, pestered by the odd weather front. we will see some cloud mulling around those early showers on that weather front in the south, perhaps some cloud for parts of eastern scotland, northeast england. but here, with onshore breezes, it could be just a little bit cooler on saturday. but where we see the sunshine, generally speaking, with a light wind, it'll feel pleasantly warm, some strong sunshine. by sunday, similar story first thing, a bit on the cool side once again. but then we've got this weather system starting to push its influence into the north and west of scotland and northern ireland. so i think here, we will see cloudier skies, perhaps some patchy rain — temperatures around 13—111. but again, warm where we see that sunshine, dry for many. hello, i'm maryam moshiri. you're watching the context on bbc news. the world health organization estimates that a "staggering" 15 million excess deaths occured globally due to the covid pandemic. if we don't count, we will miss the opportunity to be better prepared for the next time. and as china still grapples with how to deal with coronavirus — we'll analyse how its zero—covid policy affects the money in our pocket. a ukrainian military commander inside the vast steelworks in mariupol says russian troops have thwarted attempts to evacuate civilians, by violating a promised three— day ceasefire. the bank of england is warning the british economy is likely