three times what it made last year. we report on the volunteers in ukraine risking their lives to save people as rush attacks. grip ukraine risking their lives to save people as rush attacks.— people as rush attacks. grip i'm uuite people as rush attacks. grip i'm quite scared _ people as rush attacks. grip i'm quite scared most _ people as rush attacks. grip i'm quite scared most of— people as rush attacks. grip i'm quite scared most of the - people as rush attacks. grip i'm quite scared most of the time. | covid has caused the deaths of almost 15 million people around the world, says a report by the world health organization, almost three times the number reported. and the return of royal garden parties after covid, but buckingham palace says the queen won't be attending this year. and coming up on the bbc news channel... the europa league has a lot to live up to, after a dramatic week in football so far. both west ham and rangers are hoping to reach the final. good evening and welcome to the bbc news at six. interest rates have risen to the highest level in 13 years, as the bank of england tries to curb soaring price rises. rates have gone up for the fourth time since december, from 0.75% to 1%. inflation, the rate at which prices are increasing, is also expected to hit more than 10% by the end of the year, driven by rising fuel, energy and food costs, partly due to the war in ukraine. that's the highest level for a0 years. and there's bad news for the economy. it was predicted to grow next year by more than 1%. now the bank of england expects it to shrink by 0.25%, amid warnings of a real risk now of recession. our economics editor, faisal islam, has the details. butter seems to be the biggest price impact. fist butter seems to be the biggest price im act. �* , ., ., butter seems to be the biggest price imact. �* , ., ., , , impact. at this nottingham belly, the don't impact. at this nottingham belly, they don't need _ impact. at this nottingham belly, they don't need the _ impact. at this nottingham belly, they don't need the bank of- they don't need the bank of england to tell them inflation is surging in a way we haven't seen in a generation. as much as you try and stop handing on the price rises, that's gone now.— stop handing on the price rises, that's gone now. we have to cut our cloth according _ that's gone now. we have to cut our cloth according to _ that's gone now. we have to cut our cloth according to our _ that's gone now. we have to cut our cloth according to our means. - that's gone now. we have to cut our| cloth according to our means. energy rices and cloth according to our means. energy prices and raw— cloth according to our means. energy prices and raw materials costs - prices and raw materials costs are contributing to the bank of england now predicting even faster rises in prices, with the headline rate of inflation forecast ticket over 10% by the end of the year. as a result, the bank predictions for the economy are being slashed, with the economy forecast to shrink next year put up outside, the city centre is a tale of two types of vacancy sign, jobs vacancies but vacant commercial property showing and economy yet to fully recover from pandemic lockdown is now facing another black cloud. i am going to give it this year to see if it picks up. if not, we are going to give up. i can't keep living on my swinge— to give up. i can't keep living on my savings. was becoming clear in the data is the cost _ my savings. was becoming clear in the data is the cost of living - the data is the cost of living squeeze, as rising prices impacting upon disposable income, is starting to have its own impact on the economy generally, with some fearing the economy is starting to shrink. that word recession is starting to rear its head.— rear its head. it seems to be a combination _ rear its head. it seems to be a combination of mr _ rear its head. it seems to be a combination of mr saul that i combination of mr saul that recession still situation with high inflation this year. nick yes, we are in a very difficult position, and i have used this analogy quite a bit. we are walking a very narrow path between, on the one side, inflation, which is far higher than it should be and we want it to be, and on the other side, because we are being hit by big external shocks, which are causing inflation, they are so big they are causing a big loss of real income to people and businesses. in long eaton, james just heard the news about a £1600 a year increase in energy bills for the three—bedroom semi his family own. the three-bedroom semi his family own. , . the three-bedroom semi his family own. , ~ , , the three-bedroom semi his family own. . own. direct debits already increasing _ own. direct debits already increasing by _ own. direct debits already increasing by phenomenal own. direct debits already - increasing by phenomenal amounts. own. direct debits already _ increasing by phenomenal amounts. we increasing by phenomenal amounts. - like to do more advance and holidays and whatnot but are having to rein it in. like millions, cloth is having to be cut according to circumstances. we are not using the tumble drier because it came to the electricity. we have not had it too bad with the weather, so we have been able to dry outside, and we do that as often as we can. it's making sure we are turning things off, even the tv from standby. it's small amounts but over the year it adds up. find standby. it's small amounts but over the year it adds up.— the year it adds up. and yet the answer to _ the year it adds up. and yet the answer to the _ the year it adds up. and yet the answer to the inflation - the year it adds up. and yet the answer to the inflation seen on | answer to the inflation seen on energy metres is a further squeeze on household mortgage costs, with the bank of england raising interest rates to 1%, the highest since 2009 rates to 1%, the highest since 2009 rates up, even as there are warnings of recession, as the bank walks the trickiest tightrope. faisaljoins me now. a lot of the inflation's being driven by external factors, namely ukraine — how much difference will raising interest rates make? i put that question to the governor. in an ordinary situation, rates would go up to temper inflation because you have to do that. that's not the situation now up when you put that to the bank, what they say is, there's not much we can do about inflation hitting that 10% mark at the end of the year. what we are trying to do is avoid people, businesses trying to set their wages and prices assuming that 10% will be there the year after and after that, because then inflation starts to generate in end of its own accord, so that's what this rate rise is about. certainly, and that's why some on the monetary policy committee, there were votes for an even bigger rate rise of 0.5% but, when you put it in the mix between the reaction of the markets, sterling done 2%, and it shows that people, while rates may go up further, they might not go up as far as we thought, so perhaps 2% not 2.5%. on cue well, as energy prices and bills continue to surge, the energy giant shell has announced record profits of more than £7 billion for the first quarter of this year. the figure has nearly trebled compared with the same period last year. our business editor, simonjack, reports. near rotterdam, europe's biggest refinery owned by europe's biggest energy company, never in its 115 year history has shell made more money than in the first three months of this year. shell made underlying profits of £7.2 billion in the first three months of the year, triple the amount they made in the same period last year put up the global price of oil, already high at the end of last year, as the world economy emerged from its covid slumber, surged again on concerns the conflict in ukraine see russian oil supplies disrupted or boycotted. similar with gas, the price smashed records earlier this year. russia is the worlds biggest export of gas and europe is its biggest customer. those global prices have been reflected on uk forecourts and in uk energy bills. what is shell going to do with that money? in the first three months of the year, it gave over £4 million to its shareholders, including millions of uk pension savers. it's also promised to invest up to £25 billion in the uk over the next decade, mainly on renewables and low carbon technology, but some new oil and gas to help improve the uk's future energy security. the government has so far resisted calls from opposition parties for a windfall tax on oil and gas profits. vladimir putin has called on ukrainian troops holed up in the steelworks in the city of mariupol to surrender. it is the last stronghold of ukraininan resistance in the city and around 200 civilians are thought to be sheltering in its underground tunnels and bunkers. the commander leading ukrainian troops holed up inside says "difficult, bloody battles" are being fought. russia has also been bombing other cities in the region, as it tries to secure more territory in the east of the country. 0ur eastern europe correspondent, sarah rainsford, has more. it contains flashing images from the start. they struck in the dead of night. and here is what they hit. the air raid sirens still wailing as they led revealed the destruction. russia talked about its position missiles and military targets. it never admits to any of this. but every day more lives in ukraine are shattered. this is kramatorsk in the east. ludmilla says a wall collapsed. she was buried in rubble in her own bed. hours earlier, more people had finally reached safety from mariupol, the port city besieged for weeks that is under russian control. apart from its steelworks. ukrainian fighters are still holding out here. they say civilians, even children, are still trapped in bunkers. 0ne they say civilians, even children, are still trapped in bunkers. one of the commanders has made a new call for help to evacuate the civilians as well as wounded and dead soldiers. ukrainians are following their fate closely, especially in places like bucha, which survived its own nightmare. russia's war on ukraine has destroyed businesses, ruined houses and wrecked lives. here in bucha, even a month after russian troops were forced back, people's horror stories of life under occupation are still spilling out. there were queues for food at the local scout hut because many lost everything in this war. kalina tells me russian soldiers still all her savings. tells me russian soldiers still all hersavings. even tells me russian soldiers still all her savings. even her granddaughter�*s jewellery, her savings. even her granddaughter�*sjewellery, while her savings. even her granddaughter�*s jewellery, while the family cowered in fear in their vegetable seller. in moscow, russian troops are rehearsing their annual proud parade, all this to marked soviet victory in world war ii. in ukraine, their shells are hitting playgrounds and apartment blocks. as russia intensifies its attacks on eastern ukraine, many thousands of people are trapped in horrifying conditions. 0ur correspondent andrew harding reports on the volunteers, among them a maths teacher from britain, who've been going in and out of towns to try to rescue people, putting themselves at huge risk. they sit in stunned silence on the school bus thatjust rescued them from hell. still weary with terror. two other buses with them did not make it back. "it was so scary," is all she can manage to say. thousands here are running the russian gauntlet, trying to escape from the kremlin's new offensive in eastern ukraine. but imagine escaping this, and then going back in again and again. that is what a group of remarkable volunteers are doing here in the donbas, including the man who filmed this. a british maths teacher, guy 0sborn, who came out last month to lend a hand. we have been going quite close to the front and evacuating huddled, bedridden people, a couple of blind people, people with zimmer frames. it is quite a risk you're taking. i am quite scared most of the time. who wouldn't be? this footage was filmed by the driver of another school bus, one of the two that went missing. mikhail pankov is a local history teacher. last friday, he left for a rescue mission and never came back. then, a surprise announcement on russian television. mikhail has been captured alive. then another surprise. while we are speaking to his wife, yulia, her phone rings. it is her husband — still held captive, but calling with important news. "he spoke about a prisoner exchange," she says. "my husband said the russians might swap him for prisoners held by our government. soon, i hope. so maybe everything will work out." perhaps it will. but for others still trapped in the town of popasna, no help at hand. this is as close as we can get to the town right now. you can hear the boom of artillery in the distance and some shells landing the other side of this field. we have been told all rescue efforts have now been suspended because of the danger, but that still leaves something like 2,000 civilians trapped in this town, and, we are told, many more civilians caught in other frontline towns. all evidence of a slow, grinding conflict with no end in sight. andrew harding, bbc news, in eastern ukraine. the covid pandemic has caused the deaths of almost 15 million people around the world, according to the world health organization. that's almost three times higher than the number of deaths that have been officially reported. india is one of the worst—affected countries. our global health correspondent, naomi grimley, has the details. this familyjust this family just before this familyjust before the pandemic started. even after the virus began spreading in india, covid still seemed remote.— spreading in india, covid still seemed remote. ., ., ., ., . seemed remote. forget about corona, lockdown- - - — seemed remote. forget about corona, lockdown. .. but _ seemed remote. forget about corona, lockdown... but in _ seemed remote. forget about corona, lockdown. .. but in august _ seemed remote. forget about corona, lockdown. .. but in august 2020, - lockdown. .. but in august 2020, family members _ lockdown. .. but in august 2020, family members fell— lockdown. .. but in august 2020, family members fell ill _ lockdown. .. but in august 2020, family members fell ill one - lockdown. .. but in august 2020, family members fell ill one by i lockdown. .. but in august 2020, i family members fell ill one by one. and a 71—year—old died in hospital. we were shattered. we never thought this could happen. day by day, i could see she was slowly deteriorating. ijust has to help her do keep going, try to go on. her death would have been recorded, but millions were not. the who now thinks india's deaths were ten times the official count. russia and the counter, too, with excess deaths at 3.5 times what was recorded. —— russia undercounted. it is thought 5.5 million people died from covid in the first year of the pandemic, but because of patchy testing, poor record—keeping in some parts of the world, and the fact that some people died of unrelated causes during lockdowns, the world health organization now thinks that figure 0rganization now thinks that figure might be more like 15 million. it is a traced . might be more like 15 million. it is a tragedy- this — might be more like 15 million. it is a tragedy. this is _ might be more like 15 million. it is a tragedy. this is a staggering number, — a tragedy. this is a staggering number, and we have to hold policymakers accountable. and if we do not _ policymakers accountable. and if we do not count, we will miss the opportunity to be better prepared for the _ opportunity to be better prepared for the next time.— opportunity to be better prepared for the next time. brazil was at the e - icentre for the next time. brazil was at the epicentre of _ for the next time. brazil was at the epicentre of the _ for the next time. brazil was at the epicentre of the pandemic - for the next time. brazil was at the epicentre of the pandemic for - for the next time. brazil was at the epicentre of the pandemic for a - epicentre of the pandemic for a while, and saw deaths on a mass scale. a nurse from sao paulo lost her grandmother, but had to carry on working rather than grieve. translation:— working rather than grieve. translation: ., ., ., translation: soon after, i had to work in the — translation: soon after, i had to work in the covid _ translation: soon after, i had to work in the covid icu. _ translation: soon after, i had to work in the covid icu. the - translation: soon after, i had to work in the covid icu. the patients| work in the covid icu. the patients reminded me of her because they were the same age. they remind me of my grandmother. the same age. they remind me of my grandmother-— grandmother. here, britain had excess mortality _ grandmother. here, britain had excess mortality rates - grandmother. here, britain had excess mortality rates above i grandmother. here, britain had| excess mortality rates above the global average. excess mortality rates above the globalaverage. it excess mortality rates above the global average. it was on a par with germany, betterthan global average. it was on a par with germany, better than italy, global average. it was on a par with germany, betterthan italy, but global average. it was on a par with germany, better than italy, but not as good as france. a reminder that this pandemic was tough even for some of the wealthiest nations. naomi grimley, bbc news. the time is 6.17. our top story this evening — the bank of england tries to curb soaring price rises, meaning interest rates have risen. and these little chicks mean that spring has sprung earlier than ever before. coming up on the bbc news channel, pep guardiola promises manchester city will rise again after their dramatic defeat to real madrid in the champions league. real madrid will meet liverpool in the final. a bbc investigation has found hundreds of fake charity websites have been set up by scammers to profit from the war in ukraine. some of the sites steal details from real charities. we found one which had taken a video and logo from save the children. it has condemned the criminals behind the scams, saying they are stealing both from donors and from the vulnerable people who charities are trying to help. angus crawford reports. out of war, chaos. ukrainian refugees needing shelter and safety. feeding off the destruction, fake charity websites appearing all over the internet. take this one. it looks professional. the only problem is it's fake. there's no charity registration number, and as for the address of the head office, it doesn't even exist. but there is a phone number. ijust wanted to ask you a quick question about what the money is being spent on. many refugees, so for food, clothes, travel. how long have you been going as a charity? so he's hung up on me. and like many of these sites, most of these sites, there's no evidence at all that any of the money is actually getting to ukraine. here's another. it's stolen the logo of save the children, and one of their videos. so does this make you angry? yeah, it absolutely does. we've got the generosity of the british public, which is being taken advantage of, but then there's also the children that we work with around the world who are not going to get the support that they need because money is being taken away from the genuine good cause. that's shameful, isn't it? it's awful. but it's not only charities. this site copies one raising money for the ukrainian army, stealing the profiles of fighters like tonya, who gets kit to soldiers on the front line. so who's behind these sites, and where are they? take savelifedirect.com. it says it's raised $100,000. it's registered to this man, moussa ibrahim, who's in abuja in nigeria. it says it's raising money for ukraine. yeah, exactly. but it's not, is it? it's not raising any money for ukraine. we are trying to help the ukrainians, you know... really? you say on your website you've already raised $100,000. and yet you're not a charity. and there is no evidence any of your money is going to ukraine. he insists he is sending donations to ukraine, but after we spoke, he took the website down. for ukrainians, the war brings misery. for scammers, it's just another opportunity to make money. angus crawford, bbc news. the mother of baby p, the toddler who died in 2007 after months of abuse, is set to be freed from prison after the parole board rejected a government challenge against her release. tracey connolly was jailed in 2009 after she admitted causing or allowing the death of her 17—month—old son peter at their home in north london. our home affairs correspondent daniel sandford joins me now. this daniel sandford joins me now. was an infamous ca: time, this was an infamous case at the time, and this has clearly been a controversial decision.— time, and this has clearly been a controversial decision. many people build and under _ controversial decision. many people build and under the _ controversial decision. many people build and under the case _ controversial decision. many people build and under the case of - controversial decision. many people build and under the case of baby i controversial decision. many people build and under the case of baby p, | build and under the case of baby p, who suffered multiple injuries at the hands of his mother's partner and his brother. tracey connolly was told she would serve a minimum of five years in prison, but she would not be released while she was still a threat to the public will stop she was briefly released in 2013 and then recalled to prison due to concerns about her behaviour. three years later, she asked the parole board to release, and they decided not to, but in march this year, they decided it was safe to release to a specialist hospital. thejustice secretary dominic rob immediately asked them to reconsider that decision, thejudge said decision, the judge said the decision, the judge said the decision was correct, so she will be released, but not without him taking to twitter to say this is why the parole board needs a fundamental overhaul, and he thinks that in future the most serious cases should be checked by ministers.— be checked by ministers. daniel, thank yon _ the actress amber heard returned to the stand in the defamation trial brought by herformer husband johnny depp. she told the court today about how she would document him and his behaviour when he was using substances. he originally sued herfor $50 million over an article ms heard wrote, claiming she was a victim of abuse. he denies the allegations. she then counter—sued depp for $100 million. our correspondent david sillito is keeping across the case. day two of amber heard's testimony, and a return to the witness stand to continue her account of her relationship with the man sitting in front of her, johnny depp, her ex—husband, who's suing herfor libel after she described herself as a victim of domestic violence. her evidence began with photographs she'd taken to catalogue what she says was his drink and drug problems. you know, there was no... just his employees and everyone who had been taking care of him versus my word. and so i started to take pictures and say, "look, this is happening." addictions, she said, that led to violence. and at some point, hejust whacks me in the face. she went on to describe a confrontation on a plane in which she says confrontation on a plane in which she sastohnny depp accused her of having a relationship with the actor james franco. she also made a recording of what she says is her ex—husband howling on that plane, another incident in which she says she was assaulted. i another incident in which she says she was assaulted.— another incident in which she says she was assaulted. i feel this boot in my back- _ hejust kicked me. in the back. throughout it all, johnny depp listened, head down. even as they left court, there was no eye contact with the woman who he says was the one throwing punches in this relationship, not him. david sillito, bbc news. millions of people have been voting in local elections across the uk today. people in northern ireland are choosing who will sit in the next stormont assembly. all councils in scotland and wales are being contested. in england, there are some mayoral elections, and more than 4,000 seats in 146 local authorities are up for grabs. you can watch the results overnight on bbc one with huw edwards. the royal garden party season is about to get under way for the first time since the pandemic, but the queen won't be attending. instead, she will be represented by other members of the royal family. it comes as she prepares to celebrate her platinum jubilee injune to mark 70 years on the throne. our royal correspondent nicholas witchell reports. garden parties are a major fixed point in the palace's summer programme, almost always attended by the queen, a way of recognising achievements by thousands of people across the united kingdom. of course, there haven't been any garden parties for three years because of covid. and now the palace has confirmed that the queen will not be attending this year's garden parties. once again, the reason being given is that they involve long periods of standing. they are simply too taxing for a 96—year—old. the last time the queen was seen in public was the service of thanksgiving for the life of the duke of edinburgh at the end of march. she has missed a series of events that she would normally attend, the commonwealth day, monday thursday, and easter sunday services among them. —— maundy thirsty. the palace will not be drawn on questions about the's health, she is still completing virtual events from westminster. and according to the palace, she is still hoping to attend the state opening of parliament next tuesday, although a final decision will be taken on the day, since the palace. beyond that, the big question is how visible she will be for the platinum jubilee celebrations next month. nicholas witchell, bbc news. spring has sprung early. in fact, over the decades, it has moved forward by three weeks. a woodland study — looking back to the 1940s — has found great tit birds in wytham woods near oxford have been laying their eggs earlier than ever before. scientists, who have special permission to access their nests, are blaming climate change. our science correspondent victoria gill reports. wytham woods near oxford, a very special site of scientific interest. this year marks the 75th anniversary of the wytham great tit project. scientists have systematically monitored every chick hatched in the nest boxes here since 1947, and we're about to meet the newest generation. wow, how many are there? eight, so that's a very standard size for a great tit. yeah. now, these parents have got a lot of work to do. they've got to find about 10,000 caterpillars for these. 10,000? to get them to fledge? yep. it's precisely because this has been a continuous study for all those decades that researchers have been able to see and to measure the change in the timing of spring here. the 75 years that we've been studying the tits here, we've seen quite a marked shift in the timing of egg laying. so they're now laying about three weeks earlier. the tits here are actually managing to track the other members of their food chain quite well. so both the caterpillars and the eggs have also shifted their timing earlier. so the whole sort of food chain has shifted earlier in spring. the woods were bequeathed to oxford university by a wealthy local family back in 1942. since then, they've been the site of dozens of different scientific projects. but the longest—running is the great tits study, which chris perrins has been involved in for more than half a century. what are your reflections on the seasonal shift? that's fine, unless it gets to limits where the trees or the caterpillars or the birds can't do that shift because it's too big. and that's still a question that...? that's still a big question to answer, and a very interesting one. the work here goes on, and whenever spring happens, it's a busy season for the birds and the scientists, because as our climate changes, these rare, decades—long studies that track exactly how the natural world responds become more important as time goes on. victoria gill, bbc news, wytham wood. time for a look at the weather. here's nick miller. nothing too unusual for the time of year, but that might change for some next week. today, the cloudy skies have been in scotland and northern ireland, you may see a little rain, and that is a sign of things to come. tonight, a weatherfront moving in, the rain turning heavier and more widespread, wettest in western scotland, and quite breezy with that, too. increasing cloud in wales and south—west england, may be drizzly around the coast by morning, a lot of clear skies in england. in milder start to the day tomorrow. and a day which has rain milling southwards along with this weather front here, a slow process, and either side of that, you might well see some sunny spells for a time. so initially the rain is in scotland and northern ireland, slowly moving away and the sunny spells will follow in. ahead of that, dry weather, the rain moves in to northern england, wales, the midlands, quite misty around south—east england, sunny spells longest in east anglia and the south—east before turning hazy and then cloud another, and this is where we will see the highest temperatures of the day, cooler where you have the rain. rain continues to move south tomorrow night, but weakening as it does so. might be something half decent running into east

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