we begin in the uk, where inflation is rising at its fastest rate in decades as fuel, energy and food costs surge. the price rises are putting increasing pressure on household budgets, we'll find outjust how much pressure in the coming hours when the country's cpi inflation figure for march is released. prices rose by 6.2% in the 12 months to february, and the uk's office for budget responsibility suggests they could rise as high as 8.7% in the final three months of 2022. at the beginning of this month, energy bills rose by as much as 5a%, following the introduction of a higher price cap for how much energy firms can charge consumers. all this, of course, is eroding spending power. new data released on tuesday found that while wages rose for public sector workers, price rises outpaced them meaning a 3% drop in spending power, the biggest fall in 20 years. in a moment, we'll be taking a closer look at what today's figures may reveal, but first dougal shaw has been visiting some london entrepreneurs, to find out more about how rising prices are impacting their businesses. the worst business help in white city, west london, was very quiet during lockdowns, but it started to bustle again with start—up activity. however, in the current economic climate, rising costs are a big challenge to many. this start—up to mix bags designed for parents. the this start-up to mix bags designed for parents. the cost of our entire _ designed for parents. the cost of our entire supply _ designed for parents. the cost of our entire supply chain - designed for parents. the cost of our entire supply chain has | of our entire supply chain has gone up, as it has done with every other business and we can't pass that on to customers, because we know people are struggling, so we just have to take the hit on our business, which is quite high. our business, which is quite hiuh. w our business, which is quite hih, ., , ., our business, which is quite hiuh. ., . high. cost of living increase affect my — high. cost of living increase affect my business - high. cost of living increase affect my business becausej high. cost of living increase - affect my business because they affect _ affect my business because they affect the morale of my team. like _ affect the morale of my team. like a — affect the morale of my team. like a lot _ affect the morale of my team. like a lot of businesses in london. _ like a lot of businesses in london, we employ young people who have — london, we employ young people who have recently moved to london _ who have recently moved to london i_ who have recently moved to london. i can see it as something they are worrying about, — something they are worrying about, they were talking to each — about, they were talking to each other about it, wondering when _ each other about it, wondering when their landlords will pass on living _ when their landlords will pass on living costs onto them and i worry— on living costs onto them and i worry for— on living costs onto them and i worry for them.— worry for them. gaby hersham runs this hub, _ worry for them. gaby hersham runs this hub, along _ worry for them. gaby hersham runs this hub, along with - runs this hub, along with several others across london. she too is feeling the squeeze from rising costs. with the nature of our businesses we run physical— nature of our businesses we run physical buildings, _ nature of our businesses we run physical buildings, which - nature of our businesses we runj physical buildings, which means any cost — physical buildings, which means any cost increases _ physical buildings, which means any cost increases to _ physical buildings, which means any cost increases to do - physical buildings, which means any cost increases to do with . any cost increases to do with heating. _ any cost increases to do with heating, electricity, - any cost increases to do with heating, electricity, staff- heating, electricity, staff wages _ heating, electricity, staff wages are _ heating, electricity, staff wages are going - heating, electricity, staff wages are going to - heating, electricity, staff. wages are going to directly impact _ wages are going to directly impact us _ wages are going to directly impact us and _ wages are going to directly impact us and our- wages are going to directly impact us and our bottoml wages are going to directly- impact us and our bottom line. over_ impact us and our bottom line. over in— impact us and our bottom line. over in another— impact us and our bottom line. over in another co—working - over in another co—working space near waterloo isjoe ready parks will stop he has turned a side hustle selling kit plates into a very successful full—time business but is now also feeling the pressure. it but is now also feeling the pressure-— but is now also feeling the ressure. , ., , ., pressure. it is tough, small businesses _ pressure. it is tough, small businesses like _ pressure. it is tough, small businesses like us - pressure. it is tough, small businesses like us have - pressure. it is tough, small businesses like us have to l businesses like us have to compete against the bigger giants who have economies of scale. we don't want to find a cheaper way of doing things, cut any corners, we perhaps do need help from the government so we can meet the challenges. as small business is held back ijy as small business is held back by the pandemic look to take off again, they are hoping that rising costs across the board won't hold them back. dougal shaw, bbc news. so what will the inflation numbers be? let's discuss with kallum pickering — senior economist at berenberg. so when we do get the inflation data in one hour 25 minutes, what will it be, do you think? it could be close to 7%, perhaps even higher. we have been surprised to the upside almost the last 12 months with the uk inflation data, but the big one comes next month, april, when the energy price cap rise is factored in. at that point, we could be a good north of 8% next month. so north of 896 next month. so thins north of 896 next month. so things are _ north of 8% next month. so things are going to get more and more difficult, and as we have been highlighting here on the bbc, whether it be a household, a business large or small, everyone is feeling the pain. small, everyone is feeling the ain. . �* , small, everyone is feeling the ain, ., �*, . pain. that's correct. the question _ pain. that's correct. the question is, _ pain. that's correct. the question is, from - pain. that's correct. the question is, from my - question is, from my perspective as an economist, i ask what will the economic effects of this be, what we will find this for a segment of the population, consumption is going to go down, simply because prices are rising beyond what their incomes can afford. for everyone else, what we are likely to see is a dramatic fall in saving and an increase in borrowing, so i expect long—term to see savings rates come down, credit expansion to go up and then into the second half of the other question is does it start to produce higher wage growth so in real terms we get to a situation where incomes are improving again?— situation where incomes are improving again? that is the big question. _ improving again? that is the big question, because - improving again? that is the big question, because as - improving again? that is the big question, because as we i big question, because as we have only mentioned for public sector workers, they are worse off. true for many others in the private sector. you have the private sector. you have the governor of the bank of england andrew bailey saying companies need to resist raging wages that make raising wages to prevent this nasty cycle of prices going up, wages going up, inflation going up. your thoughts? es, up, inflation going up. your thoughts?— thoughts? a poor choice of boards but _ thoughts? a poor choice of boards but what _ thoughts? a poor choice of boards but what we - thoughts? a poor choice of boards but what we need l thoughts? a poor choice of| boards but what we need is thoughts? a poor choice of l boards but what we need is a moderate rate —— poor choice of words will stop we need a moderate raise of incomes, so good numbers into 2023 might be a 4% or 4.5% annual rate of headline wage growth and something like a 2.5%, 3% rise in inflation. that would be an ideal scenario. what the bank of england is concerned about, and it is a dual concern, is this higher inflation now, four times higher than its target, produces an outsize raise in wages that creates will be called a wage price spiral in, so heading into next year and thereafter, if you are still at 4% or 4.5% inflation rate, it is far too 4% or 4.5% inflation rate, it is fartoo high, 4% or 4.5% inflation rate, it is far too high, the bank of england would have no choice but to create a recession in order to hit its inflation target. we need to avoid that outcome. in target. we need to avoid that outcome. target. we need to avoid that outcome-— outcome. in the short term though. — outcome. in the short term though. peeple _ outcome. in the short term though, people will - outcome. in the short term though, people will reduce | though, people will reduce their spending certainly on going out to eat or holidays were nothing of that nature if they are really concerned. in october, we have another energy price increase probably for most households. so what is your outlook for our economy? let's see about that. often we find that when prices go up, people spend more, they have to spend more to consume what they did before. we have a lot of savings, credit is still fairly cheap, so i think this is where we need to be clear. on the one hand there is a risk that this higher inflation essentially kills the economic upswing and we head into a recession. there is another risk that actually people spend through this and we get even more inflation. those are the two risks the bank of england are concerned about. we won't know which world we are in for probably two or three months until we can see the data. we two or three months until we can see the data.— can see the data. we shall watch closely, _ can see the data. we shall watch closely, thank - can see the data. we shall watch closely, thank you. | let's stick with the cost of living, because it's not just the uk that's seeing prices rise. across the pond, inflation has reached a ao—year high in the united states, spurred by the soaring cost of energy. the consumer price index there rose to eight and a half percent, year on year. here's our us business correspondent michelle fleury with more. americans are paying more for pretty much everything. the latest government report shows us consumer prices jumped 85% in march, the fastest inflation rate since the reagan administration, back in 1981. it easily erased most wage increases. it easily erased most wage increases-_ it easily erased most wage increases. ~ , . ., increases. we were expecting an u:l increases. we were expecting an ugly result _ increases. we were expecting an ugly result from _ increases. we were expecting an ugly result from the _ increases. we were expecting an ugly result from the cpi - ugly result from the cpi numbers and we got it. inflation continues to accelerate, setting a new 40 year — accelerate, setting a new 40 year high _ accelerate, setting a new 40 year high and on the year by year— year high and on the year by year basis, we have seen prices up year basis, we have seen prices up 85%. — year basis, we have seen prices up 8.5%, and in the month of march, — up 8.5%, and in the month of march, more than half the monthiy— march, more than half the monthly increase was driven by the increase in gasoline prices _ the increase in gasoline rices. , ., prices. many blame pain at the um -. prices. many blame pain at the pump- the _ prices. many blame pain at the pump- the price _ prices. many blame pain at the pump. the price of— prices. many blame pain at the pump. the price of petrol - prices. many blame pain at the pump. the price of petrol hasl pump. the price of petrol has surged, following russia of �*s invasion of ukraine, but costs had been rising steadily even before, the result of supply chain issues, as the us emerged from the pandemic. to drive down fuel prices, the white house is allowing the sale of the gas that uses a higher ethanol blend over the summer. the sale of this e 15 fuel is usually banned in the warmer months because of air pollution concerns. president biden announced the waiver at an ethanol plant in iowa, as he attempted to get ahead of criticism that his administration wasn't doing enough to lower prices. the family budget, _ enough to lower prices. the family budget, the - enough to lower prices. the family budget, the ability to fill up — family budget, the ability to fill up your— family budget, the ability to fill up your tank, _ family budget, the ability to fill up your tank, none - family budget, the ability to fill up your tank, none of. family budget, the ability to fill up your tank, none of iti fill up your tank, none of it should _ fill up your tank, none of it should hinge _ fill up your tank, none of it should hinge on _ fill up your tank, none of it should hinge on whether. fill up your tank, none of it should hinge on whether a| should hinge on whether a dictator— should hinge on whether a dictator declares- should hinge on whether a dictator declares war- should hinge on whether a dictator declares war or. dictator declares war or commits— dictator declares war or commits genocide - dictator declares war or commits genocide a - dictator declares war orl commits genocide a half dictator declares war or. commits genocide a half a dictator declares war or- commits genocide a half a world away _ commits genocide a half a world away to — commits genocide a half a world away. to help— commits genocide a half a world away. to help deal— commits genocide a half a world away. to help deal with - commits genocide a half a world away. to help deal with this - away. to help deal with this putin— away. to help deal with this putin price _ away. to help deal with this putin price hike, _ away. to help deal with this putin price hike, i— away. to help deal with this putin price hike, i have - putin price hike, i have authorised _ putin price hike, i have authorised the - putin price hike, i have authorised the releasel putin price hike, i have l authorised the release of putin price hike, i have . authorised the release ofi million _ authorised the release ofi million barrels— authorised the release ofi million barrels per- authorised the release ofi million barrels per day- authorised the release ofi million barrels per day for| authorised the release of 1 i million barrels per day for the next — million barrels per day for the next six — million barrels per day for the next six months _ million barrels per day for the next six months from - million barrels per day for the next six months from our- next six months from our strategic— next six months from our strategic petroleum - next six months from our. strategic petroleum reserve. pressure _ strategic petroleum reserve. pressure is— strategic petroleum reserve. pressure is also _ strategic petroleum reserve. pressure is also on - strategic petroleum reserve. pressure is also on the - strategic petroleum reserve. . pressure is also on the federal reserve to tame inflation without stifling growth. america's central bank has orally began to raise interest rates and is expected to move aggressively well into next year. of course, the us isn't the only country grappling with this issue right now. inflation is raising the cost of living around the world. it is raising the cost of living around the world. it certainly is. now around the world. it certainly is- now to — around the world. it certainly is. now to china. _ around the world. it certainly is. now to china. it— around the world. it certainly is. now to china. it has - is. now to china. it has reported its latest trade data. despite covid lockdowns and an ongoing trade war with the us, the world's second biggest economy still saw exports, in yuan terms, rise by 13.4% in the first three months of the year. trade with russia also rose by almost 30% during the same period — that's likely to be unwelcome news to western nations, who have sought to cut moscow off from the global financial system after the invasion of ukraine. joining me now from london is duncan wrigley from everbright securities international. duncan, if we start with the overall picture, china exports increasing, double digits, imports also, not by so much. give us your thoughts on how china is doing.— china is doing. well, china's exorts china is doing. well, china's exp°ft5 are _ china is doing. well, china's exports are holding - china is doing. well, china's exports are holding up - exports are holding up somewhat, although the growth rate has slowed down. what we are seeing for exports is that consumption patterns in china's key export markets, like the us, like europe, are starting to revert to pre—covert patterns. so consumers are spending more on going to cafes and pubs, rather than buying masks and laptops to work at home. and on the import side, china has been hit by its worst set of covert outbreaks. places like shanghai most obviously but actually in many places across the country, and this is likely to dent consumer demand and therefore demand for imports in china. 50 and therefore demand for imports in china.- imports in china. so is it aaain imports in china. so is it again we _ imports in china. so is it again we have _ imports in china. so is it again we have to - imports in china. so is it again we have to watch | imports in china. so is it. again we have to watch the months ahead because the lockdown in shanghai is only quite recent, so it wouldn't necessarily be impacting this data as much as a word in the next quarter?— next quarter? you are right, although _ next quarter? you are right, although there _ next quarter? you are right, although there were - next quarter? you are right, i although there were lockdowns in places like shenzhen earlier, and injullien province in north—east china, so after chinese new year in march, we already saw some of the covert outbreaks pulse mac impacts in china first up there's one offsetting factor, which is that china has started growth support, a mini stimulus plan, let's call it, focusing on construction, infrastructure, and that will start to drive china's demand for importing commodities. and of course the price of many commodities as well as energy has been driven up on international markets recently. it has, but has china done some very good deals with russia? we are seeing its trade with russia is up nearly 30% in january, february, march. so talk us through that relationship and what they are trading. relationship and what they are tradinu. . ., ., , trading. yeah, well, china has said they _ trading. yeah, well, china has said they are _ trading. yeah, well, china has said they are going _ trading. yeah, well, china has said they are going to - trading. yeah, well, china has| said they are going to continue their normal trading relationship with russia, you know, in the same way that for example many countries in europe are still importing gas from russia. china also imports energy, gas, a little bit of oil, coalfrom russia, and other commodities that russia produces, and so i expect some of that is russia finding a market in china where it is struggling to find a market in some other countries in the world. , ., ., , world. yes, i mean, that is what russia _ world. yes, i mean, that is what russia is _ world. yes, i mean, that is what russia is going - world. yes, i mean, that is what russia is going to - world. yes, i mean, that is what russia is going to do, isn't it, to bit more to countries such as china and india, as sanctions increase, and also as europe looks for alternatives for their energy. yeah, that seems to be likely. let's see if other countries do in fact cut off russia's imports of energy. but from china's perspective, russia is an important trading partner, but nowhere near as large a trading partner as the likes of america and europe.- america and europe. duncan, aood to america and europe. duncan, good to talk— america and europe. duncan, good to talk to _ america and europe. duncan, good to talk to you, - america and europe. duncan, good to talk to you, thank- america and europe. duncan, | good to talk to you, thank you for your perspective on the trade figures from china. it's not just europe it's notjust europe and the us dealing with a sharp rise of the cost of living. data out of china shows retail inflation now rose 7% in march compared to the year before, the 17 month high driven by the cost of food, fuel and electricity prices. the maritime and coastguard agency says it's detained another p&o ferry, the spirit of britain, at dover, for safety reasons. ministers ordered inspections of all p&o vessels after the company sacked 800 staff without notice last month. the p&o ship the pride of kent, also at dover, remains in detention. airbus is urging europe not to block imports of titanium from russia. the company says sanctions on the metal would hurt aerospace manufacturers and would not make a huge dent on russia's economy. russia provides about half of airbus's titanium, either directly or through key suppliers. stay with us on bbc news, still to come: a warning that the uk's travel problems could continue into summer because the country's border force is reported to be "catastrophically understaffed". pol pot, one of the century's greatest mass murderers, is reported to have died of natural causes. he, and the khmer rouge movement he led, were responsible for the deaths of an estimated 1.7 million cambodians. there have been violent protests in indonesia, where playboy has gone on sale for the first time. traditionalist muslim leaders have expressed disgust. the magazine's offices have been attacked and its editorial staff have gone into hiding. it was clear that paula's only contest was with the clock, and as for her sporting legacy, paula radcliffe's competitors will be chasing her new world—best time for years to come. quite quietly, but quicker- and quicker, she seemed just to slide away under- the surface and disappear. this is bbc world news, the latest headlines: president biden has for the first time referred to russia's actions in ukraine as genocide. britain's prime minister and his chancellor of the exchequer are resisting calls to resign after they were fined by police for breaching covid lockdown rules. sri lanka has said it will temporarily default on its foreign debts amid its worst economic crisis in over 70 years. officials said the impact of the pandemic and the ukraine war made it "impossible" to pay its creditors. the south asian country has seen mass protests as it suffers food shortages, soaring prices and power cuts. joining me now is fung sui a sri lanka analyst, at the economist intelligence unit thank you very much forjoining us on the programme. is it far too convenient for those running sri lanka in government to say that this is all about the war in ukraine and the pandemic?— the war in ukraine and the pandemic? it's not all about the war in — pandemic? it's not all about the war in ukraine, - pandemic? it's not all about the war in ukraine, the - pandemic? it's not all about the war in ukraine, the warl pandemic? it's not all about. the war in ukraine, the war in ukraine has exacerbated the situation so in terms of citing the pandemic, that is true. sri lanka has two sources of foreign exchange earnings. one of them is from tourism other ready—made garments. garments have performed quite well since the onset of the pandemic, is the onset of the pandemic, is the tourism sector that has been decimated. tourist arrivals have actually shrunk to literally single digits, several hundred competitors several hundred competitors several thousands that used to visit sri lanka so this particular source of foreign exchange earnings helped to replenish the pool of foreign exchange reserves. that pool was pretty large before the pandemic and now we are reduced to something like one point 9 billion sojust to to something like one point 9 billion so just to say that sri lanka had that commitments this year of around about $7 billion. in times when they don't have enough foreign—exchange reserves or us dollars, they would actually tap into the pool of foreign—exchange reserves which right now they can't. at the same time what the war in ukraine has done isjust same time what the war in ukraine has done is just pushed up ukraine has done is just pushed up prices of energy and they are an energy dependent economy, not only that but they managed to devalue the currency a few weeks ago which has made the cost of energy even more expensive hence without the salt edge. having said that shortages have been going on little while now. == shortages have been going on little while now.— little while now. -- shortage. those that — little while now. -- shortage. those that criticise _ little while now. -- shortage. those that criticise the - little while now. -- shortage. those that criticise the prime | those that criticise the prime minister, the rajapaksa family that have gripped politics for some time, they are being over critical in your opinion? it's more about the impact of the pandemic and circumstances out of their control? the pandemic and circumstances out of their control?— of their control? the pandemic was definitely _ of their control? the pandemic was definitely out _ of their control? the pandemic was definitely out of _ of their control? the pandemic was definitely out of their- was definitely out of their control, the war of ukraine is out of their control that mismanagement has occurred. there was a period when the president came in and actually cut taxes when that was probably imprudent on their part. then there was the period last year when it was decided that chemical fertiliser should be banned so the country could embrace organic farming. that band, although it got rescinded several months later, that did mean that crop yields were also cut really low so that made them dependent on food imports. can i ask you then, what will be the reaction of organisations such as the international monetary fund? international monetary fund ? will they bail out international monetary fund? will they bail out of sri lanka and what conditions will be attached?— and what conditions will be attached? ., ., ., , attached? negotiations, well, an agreement _ attached? negotiations, well, an agreement by _ attached? negotiations, well, an agreement by the - attached? negotiations, well, i an agreement by the government that you expect that they would approach the imf when they had been reluctant to do so earlier, they were too late and the bailout, the imf will agree to it but the amount may not be enough to actually help them with their debt commitments this year so they will be looking to all of their investors to actually restructure their debt going forward. , ., ., . forward. one we should watch very closely — forward. one we should watch very closely and _ forward. one we should watch very closely and we _ forward. one we should watch very closely and we will- forward. one we should watch very closely and we will watch | very closely and we will watch very closely and we will watch very closely and we will watch very closely what happens with the leadership there as well. thank you for your analysis. worker shortages mean airports and ports are facing a "very difficult summer", a border staff union has said. lucy moreton, from the immigration services union, warned that border force was "catastrophically under—staffed" and that it took nearly a year to fully train new officers. meanwhile, one aviation recruitment expert said it would take at least 12 months for shortages to settle down. joining me now is craig erlam, senior market analyst at oanda. this is not what we want to hear is people are still grappling with huge disruptions as they try and get away for easter. i as they try and get away for easter. ., , ., ., , as they try and get away for easter. ., ,., ., , , ., , easter. i mean, so many people have been — easter. i mean, so many people have been looking _ easter. i mean, so many people have been looking forward - easter. i mean, so many people have been looking forward to i have been looking forward to holidays for the last two years, didn't want to be faced with massive security checks and lines of the airport, potentially missing flights so this is massive form border force and airlines to contend with. this stems from two things, one is really strong recovery and you can see that across many businesses and industries, the recovery has been far stronger and quicker than they anticipated and it seems as long as board of —— border force is concerned, that is the case which is poor planning, if you're going to let large numbers go early in the pandemic and it takes around 12 months to become fully trained and qualified, you have to plan better and ultimately the culmination of these two factors is going to hit tourism this summer. we've been hearing — hit tourism this summer. we've been hearing as _ hit tourism this summer. we've been hearing as well _ hit tourism this summer. we've been hearing as well the - hit tourism this summer. we've i been hearing as well the people who loved working in the travel sector, certainly in airports and the kind of area, border agencies during the pandemic, chose not to return.— chose not to return. yes, and aaain chose not to return. yes, and again this _ chose not to return. yes, and again this comes _ chose not to return. yes, and again this comes back - chose not to return. yes, and again this comes back to i again this comes back to planning, ultimately. when you know what the hot periods are, you're going to see enormous traffic, you know how long the security checks take, you need to be prepared and this shows that there is an enormous lack of preparation. it goes to various different areas as well, when you talk in regards to getting the security checks through, as far as the applicants are concerned, there's been criticism of government and how long that takes but ultimately of training takes 6—12 months, speed up in the process is not going to alleviate the issues this easter, it could with some planning alleviate the pressures over the course of the summer and maybe later in the summer and maybe later in the year but there are fundamental factors of play here all of which stem back to poor planning and poor administration of the process and ultimately as well a much stronger economic recovery. find stronger economic recovery. and aet stronger economic recovery. and net to stronger economic recovery. and get to the _ stronger economic recovery. and get to the airport a lot earlier than normal would be the advice. craig, i want to get your sense of the inflation data out today in the uk, market reaction to that, us inflation numbers. markets reacted positively to what happened in the us yesterday despite the headline of a 40—yearfall in despite the headline of a 40—year fall in the cost of living? i 40-year fall in the cost of livin: ? ~ . . , living? i think that ultimately comes down _ living? i think that ultimately comes down to _ living? i think that ultimately comes down to two - living? i think that ultimately comes down to two things. i living? i think that ultimately l comes down to two things. the many months now the inflation data has been much higher than markets were expect in the fact that yesterday was roughly in line and the core data which we all feel but can fall as quickly as they arise. it was actually a bit below expectations so that suggests we are starting to plateau around the period we expected to be the case, and the same expected today for the uk. ultimately it is one piece of data, and i'm sure some of those fears will creep back in but it suggests that least in the short—term that we are seeing those pressures start to plateau. seeing those pressures start to lateau. ,., ., seeing those pressures start to lateau, ,., ., ., seeing those pressures start to lateau. ., ., ~ seeing those pressures start to lateau. ., ., ,, ., plateau. good to talk to you. thank you — plateau. good to talk to you. thank you for _ plateau. good to talk to you. thank you for being - plateau. good to talk to you. thank you for being on i plateau. good to talk to you. thank you for being on the l thank you for being on the programme and thank you for your company. have a lovely day, i will see you soon. hello. the easter weekend is just around the corner, and as we move closer to it, things will turn drier and warmer for many. not always sunny, complicated slightly by some mist and low cloud lingering for northern and western areas, and here we could see some patchy rain at times, but a lot of dry weather in the forecast. it is looking drier for many as we head through wednesday. the area of rain we had on tuesday came courtesy of this area of low pressure, and it is pulling away into the north sea through wednesday. still close enough to scotland that it will bring more cloud, still some patchy rain into north—east scotland and the northern isles through the morning, that will pull away. mist and low cloud may linger but elsewhere, developing some sharp afternoon showers, perhaps with a rumble of thunder. the winds will be a light—to—moderate westerly for many, and that means a warmer day across north—eastern coasts, where we have the best of the sunshine through wednesday afternoon. temperatures quite widely into the mid or high teens. pollen levels, will be high for much of england and wales through wednesday, moderate across england, and also moderate across southern scotland, and into northern ireland, as well. through wednesday evening, most of the showers will fade. many of us will see some clearer skies, low cloud will start pushing back in to wales, and also more cloud nudging into northern ireland and the western isles. for many, it is a mild night, with temperatures typically between 5—9 celsius. thursday, we've got this area of high pressure, which is the dominant feature. fronts trying to push in from the west, and will bring much more cloud across northern ireland, some patchy rain, particularly for western areas through the afternoon. once again, mist and low cloud will be slow to clear for some western and southern areas, but elsewhere, spells of sunshine developing and the highest temperatures, mid—to—high teens for many, perhaps 19, 20, maybe even 21 celsius in south east anglia and south—east england. the easter weekend, for many, we hold onto this high pressure. fairly weak fronts, but particularly as we head into easter sunday, then we could begin to see some more showery outbreaks of rain into the north and the west, but for most, over the easter weekend, it is looking warmer, some overnight mist and fog, but also some sunshine, too. good morning, welcome to breakfast with sally nugent and jon kay. our headlines today. borisjohnson and the chancellor rishi sunak resist calls to resign after being fined for breaking lockdown rules. good morning. we are about to get the latest figures on how fast prices are rising and brace yourselves, we are looking at a 30 year high for information. i am in birmingham talking to businesses about how it is affecting them and asking why we have not seen the worst of it yet. us presidentjoe biden describes russia's operation in ukraine as genocide. he says vladamir putin is trying to wipe out the idea of being ukrainian. we catch up with martin hibbert, who was paralysed in the manchester arena attack, as he prepares to climb mount kilimanjaro.