the world bank says it expects ukraine's economy to shrink by 45% this year as a result of the war with russia. the bank says enormous financial support is needed immediately to keep the government running and to support a population enduring the hardship of war. it's also forecasting there will be greater economic damage than was caused by the covid—19 pandemic across eastern europe and central asia, with unprecedented sanctions leading to a steep recession in russia, too. joining me now from warsaw is anna bjerde, the world bank's vice president for europe and central asia. anna, good to talk to you. no surprise at all to hear that the outlook for ukraine is dire economically but the question is how do we help ukraine. the world bank is pledging even more money?— world bank is pledging even more money? great to be with ou, more money? great to be with you. sally. _ more money? great to be with you. sally. and _ more money? great to be with you, sally, and thank- more money? great to be with you, sally, and thank you - more money? great to be with you, sally, and thank you so . you, sally, and thank you so much for having us. yes, indeed, we have been working hard to try to get a picture of the forecast and we came out with our report which is estimating a 45% drop in gdp for ukraine and as you mentioned also a 4% contraction across the region because of the war, and what we can do to help ukraine is first and foremost, help ukraine during the war and that is because the government is working hard to keep government services going and what we have learned in fragile and conflict affected situations is that it is very important to also be active and present during a conflict so our focus has been sure that the government can continue to provide key, essential services, particular pensions, transfers to vulnerable people, education and health, and its own services through the civil servants that are working both at the national level and local level. , ., level. basically, we are talkin: level. basically, we are talking about _ level. basically, we are talking about the - level. basically, we are. talking about the basics, aren't we? enabling ukraine to pay its doctors, its teachers, its civil servants, all those providing essential services, as you say. but of course, we have to think long—term as well, don't we, and i, in terms of the farmers in ukraine are not able to actually plant for the new harvest, the grain, wheat that provides essentially a lot of the world is not leaving ukraine because of the conflict. the outlook from that perspective is very bad, isn't it? , , ., perspective is very bad, isn't it? , a, perspective is very bad, isn't it? a, , it? yes, you are absolutely riaht, it? yes, you are absolutely right. and _ it? yes, you are absolutely right, and one _ it? yes, you are absolutely right, and one of _ it? yes, you are absolutely right, and one of the - it? yes, you are absolutely right, and one of the key i right, and one of the key reasons for this dark outlook for ukraine is not because one has to remember that 50% of exports in ukraine go through american exports and is primarily the black sea and 90% of grains from ukraine go through the black sea and this is a very significant part of the ukraine economy. also we have to remember that where the fighting has been taking place is where 50% of the gdp of ukraine is anchored. so these are really the issue is, the logistics, the trade, but also the fact that there has been huge internal displacement. as you know, massive amounts of refugees flowing out of ukraine, so domestic demand has pretty much collapsed, private investment has been cut in half and the areas, as i mentioned, where the fighting has been taking place is where a big part of the economy is generated.— part of the economy is generated. part of the economy is aenerated. ~ , , generated. also, it must be noted, generated. also, it must be noted. you _ generated. also, it must be noted, you mentioned - generated. also, it must be - noted, you mentioned enormous parts of eastern europe will be impacted significantly by this war, as well parts of asia. but what about africa and the drought they are experiencing there? reports coming through today that hundreds of thousands of children are facing starvation in parts of africa, and this problem with wheat, with grains not coming out of ukraine and also blockages of it coming out of russia are a big issue. absolutely. between ukraine and russia, you have about 25% of the wheat production in the world and the world bank has been quoted before, saying that ukraine on its own feeds about 400 million people around the world, so the fact that there are such supply chain disruptions coming out of these two significant exporters is causing a problem. excuse me. with the current imports in many countries and many countries around the world, in fact, are relying on ukraine and russia for, like, 100% of the imports, so this is a problem. the imports, so this is a problem-— the imports, so this is a roblem. , , , , , problem. very briefly, because i can tell your— problem. very briefly, because i can tell your voice _ problem. very briefly, because i can tell your voice is - i can tell your voice is challenged a little, have a drink of water, you are saying russia's economic football four x 11 .2% and a lot of it is to do with sanctions placed on russia currently? absolutely, what we're — russia currently? absolutely, what we're seeing _ russia currently? absolutely, what we're seeing as - russia currently? absolutely, what we're seeing as this - russia currently? absolutely, what we're seeing as this is i what we're seeing as this is the largest co—ordinated economic sanctions pretty in modern times so our outlook for russia is right now but it will contract by about ”.2% and this is of course again being driven by a huge drop in demand, domestically but also uncertainty going forward. russia has businesses that have closed, we don't know what will come next in terms of sanctions and russia also is trading with and russia also is trading with a lot of countries in the region and with those countries being hugely affected as well, demand goes down in those countries as well.— demand goes down in those countries as well. anna b'erde, thank you i countries as well. anna b'erde, thank you so i countries as well. anna b'erde, thank you so much, h countries as well. anna bjerde, thank you so much, world - countries as well. anna bjerde, l thank you so much, world bank's vice president for europe and central asia.— central asia. thank you for havino central asia. thank you for having me- _ elon musk has decided not to join the board of twitter. the world's richest man was due to be appointment to the position after he purchase of 9.2% of the social media company for $3.7 billion. in a statement on the social media platform, twitter�*s ceo shareholder, had decided not to join the board and that he believes the decision is in the best interests of the company. musk is a frequent tweeter with more than 80 million followers and was due to answer staff questions at an upcoming meeting. we will keep an eye on what he tweets next. now, to france where, as you've been hearing, emmanuel macron has won the first round of the election and far—right rival marine le pen will fight him for the presidency for a second time. le pen has won support by focusing on the rising cost of living in france which is impacting voters across the political spectrum. meanwhile, the pandemic has left macron�*s government with little cash on hand after it spent heavily to support businesses through the crisis. we'll be live to paris in a moment for an expert view on what's at stake but first, this report from theo leggett. the restaurant occupies one of the most famous mediaeval buildings in strasbourg. inside, chefs are getting ready for the lunchtime rush. this place has always been very popular with tourists who bring in much—needed income. but at the height of the covid pandemic, it had to close and when it reopened, tourist traffic had disappeared. the restaurant _ traffic had disappeared. the restaurant was _ traffic had disappeared. tue restaurant was open traffic had disappeared. tte restaurant was open but traffic had disappeared. ttj: restaurant was open but we still missed our tourists, our visitors, it takes a lot of groups as well. mainly from asia, for example. so you can imagine that those groups were just not here for the last 2.5 years. tt just not here for the last 2.5 ears. , ., ., years. it survived through a time when _ years. it survived through a time when many _ years. it survived through a time when many other- time when many other restaurants went out of business and tourists are now returning. that isn'tjust good news for restaurants. smiles are returning as well over at the strasberg national theatre, tickets for tonight's performance have been selling well. audiences initially seen from and to come back but now, thatis from and to come back but now, that is changing. the covid crisis came as a huge shock for france's cultural sector. this theatre, for example, was empty and the seats were unoccupied for more than a year but now, things are getting back to normal and crowds are returning but it does not mean there are not still severe challenges ahead. �* ,, �* not still severe challenges ahead. j ,, j ., ahead. translation: there are certainly challenges, _ ahead. translation: there are certainly challenges, mainly - certainly challenges, mainly how to rebuild in a lasting way. we learned during the crisis that the public makes a choice to come to us but over the past couple of years, they have learned to enjoy other things so we have to work extra hard to make sure they maintain their interest in what we do. restaurants, theatres and museums were heavily supported by state funding during the crisis. their reopening has been a majorfactor crisis. their reopening has been a major factor in the country's economic recovery. but to ensure the recovery last, france has also committed to a massive investment programme. it will focus on areas such as clean energy and green public transport projects. green public transport prejects-_ green public transport ro'ects. , . ., , projects. the sectors most affected by _ projects. the sectors most affected by the _ projects. the sectors most affected by the pandemic i projects. the sectors most - affected by the pandemic crisis were industry, construction, tourism culture. so, it was the main focus in the short run. but with this long run, public investment, other activities will benefit.— will benefit. covid recovery has already _ will benefit. covid recovery has already cost _ will benefit. covid recovery has already cost france - will benefit. covid recovery - has already cost france dearly. public finances under strain. in the run—up to the election, all candidates set up their recipes for future spending. now, those that remain have to convince the public that the delicacies on offer will not come with an unaffordable bill. theo leggett, bbc news. joining me now is tomasz michalski, associate professor of economics and decision sciences at hec business school in paris. good morning to you. good morning. good morning to you. good morning-— good morning to you. good mornin.. �*, ., ~ ., morning. let's talk about the outcome _ morning. let's talk about the outcome of _ morning. let's talk about the outcome of this _ morning. let's talk about the outcome of this first - morning. let's talk about the outcome of this first round. l morning. let's talk about the | outcome of this first round. it looks like, of course, emmanuel macron is right up against marine le pen and it is not clear what the outcome will be. what are your thoughts? indeed, we have a rematch _ what are your thoughts? indeed, we have a rematch from - what are your thoughts? indeed, we have a rematch from 2017 - what are your thoughts? indeed, we have a rematch from 2017 butj we have a rematch from 2017 but this time, marine le pen is much more likely to win. for many reasons. first of all, macron is no longer a maverick new candidate. he has to defend his legacy. second of all, marine le pen skilfully concentrated over the last couple of months on the biggest issue of this election, the cost of living, the rising costs of living, and macron was a little bit aloof, staying away from the fray and also preoccupied with the current international situation with the war in ukraine. she has very much _ the war in ukraine. she has very much softened - the war in ukraine. she has very much softened her - the war in ukraine. she has i very much softened her image and, as you say, she has gained huge momentum in the last few weeks, so if the outcome is marine le pen, if she were to win, what does it mean for france and the economy? the first thing _ france and the economy? the first thing to _ france and the economy? the first thing to watch _ france and the economy? ttj: first thing to watch would be what would be the outcome of the parliamentary elections because that would mean weather, it's not clear whether marine le pen's party would, in fact, when the majority. so, we could have a cohabitation government which would seriously affect the policies she could instill but generally, she would not have a lot of reforms, continuing macron's stance, that she would probably try to increase the purchasing power of people by lowering the vat taxes, re— nationalising motorways and boost public spending. it's not, frankly, obvious how she would pay for that, though. pond would pay for that, though. and what has emanuel _ would pay for that, though. and what has emanuel macron got to do between now and the next vote? , ., ., ., , ., vote? first of all, he has to campaign — vote? first of all, he has to campaign very _ vote? first of all, he has to campaign very hard, - vote? first of all, he has to campaign very hard, there l vote? first of all, he has to l campaign very hard, there is vote? first of all, he has to i campaign very hard, there is a debate in between, last election cycle in 2017, the debate was pretty decisive, the pen was crushed, we will see how this works this time. she has some very good arguments against macron about hollowing the role of the state, taking him over the healthcare system, outsourcing services and also the cost of living, the cost of energy, cost of food. that is going to appeal to really, the lower classes. this is a class war basically that we will see. macron on the other hand has to provide his credentials as a reformer, trying to convince people that he is not arrogant and also, stress that an election of marine le pen will have major consequences for europe, the war in ukraine and the future of nato, also of trade deals and, really, the whole future of france for years to come.— whole future of france for years to come. we will have to leave it there _ years to come. we will have to leave it there but _ years to come. we will have to leave it there but it's - leave it there but it's absolutely fascinating how this is unfolding.— absolutely fascinating how this is unfolding. tomasz michalski, thank you- _ is unfolding. tomasz michalski, thank you. thank _ is unfolding. tomasz michalski, thank you. thank you _ is unfolding. tomasz michalski, thank you. thank you very - is unfolding. tomasz michalski, l thank you. thank you very much. disruption at major uk airports is continuing ahead of another busy weekend for travel. thousands of people heading abroad for the easter holidays have faced long queues, delays and cancellations. airports say they are struggling to recruit and train new staff quick enough to cope with demand and airlines have also been hit by covid—related staff absences. joining me now is aviation consultantjohn strickland. bring this up to speed. how has it been in the last few days? we have seen some improvement over the weekend. while there have been hundreds of flights cancelled, most preamp ably by british airways and easyjet, the running of most uk airports has been far more smooth, lines have been shorter. we should this is not simply uk problem, other airports, scandinavia, also reporting the same challenges. the recruitment was not able to be completed what was required to be done in terms of checking our people security clearance prior to january could be done more lesson 24 hours by uploading documents. that is taking weeks so the government is contributing to the challenge. airlines are wrestling with high levels of sick must and covid with staff and where they planned buffers usually with normal sickness, they haven't been able to keep up with that. this is not going to be able to go through sadly the next couple of weeks.- go through sadly the next couple of weeks. given bringing us u- to couple of weeks. given bringing us up to speed _ couple of weeks. given bringing us up to speed in _ couple of weeks. given bringing us up to speed in more - couple of weeks. given bringing us up to speed in more detail. us up to speed in more detail on the website. if you are travelling, do take a look. so much more to come on bbc news. uk chemicals giant ineos says it wants to have a go at fracking, but is drilling for more fossil fuels the best way to bring down energy prices? this is bbc world news. the latest headlines: as ukraine prepares for a massive russian attack in the east, president zelensky tells cbs he's prepared to give his life for his country. emmanuel macron appears to have triumphed in the first ballot of the french presidential election, but he'll face stiff competition from marine le pen in the second round. turning to china, where there is still no end in sight for the lockdown in shanghai. some 25 million residents have been under quarantine measures for almost three weeks. and in the last few hours we've had some economic data out of china that gives us an indication of if any of this is impacting the economy. joining me now from our asian business hub is the bbc�*s joao da silva. this data seems to reflect the mounting challenges that the world's second—largest economy is facing. factory gate prices have risen more than expected in march which is why oil prices were going up in ukraine and also factories in china were struggling to operate under strict covid lockdowns. consumer price inflation has risen more than expected, a i—point side —— 1.5 cent risen more than expected, a 1—point side —— 1.5 centjump may not seem like much but you need to take into account here the dampening effect of those lot downs on demand across the country. a reminder here that the lockdown in shanghai has been extended, 26 million people remain stuck at home and what is one of china's biggest and most prosperous cities and there are signs of trouble elsewhere. in guangzhou, 18 million people are about to be tested because a handful of cases were found there but the chinese government is actively trying to cushion the blow from these policies on the economy. it's already announced an increase in fiscal spending and also tax cuts for smaller enterprises but as long as this pandemic wave keeps spreading, the outlook for the chinese economy will remain highly uncertain stop energy firm ineos says it wants to build a fracking test site to show the process can be performed safely. the company claimed extracting shale gas in the uk could make the country "self—sufficient in 10 years". the firm has written to the government asking to develop a site, with its boss sirjim ratcliffe saying such a move would "reduce the cost of energy" and ensure "long—term energy independence". joining me now is marc ostwald is the chief economist and global strategist at adm investor services international good to talk to you. this is hot on the _ good to talk to you. this is hot on the heels _ good to talk to you. this is hot on the heels of - good to talk to you. this is hot on the heels of the - good to talk to you. this is. hot on the heels of the uk's energy strategy coming out last week. what do you reckon, will ineos be given the green light? ineos be given the green light? i think it's more than likely that they probably will but in terms of actually solving the current energy price problem that we have, both for consumers and businesses, this is a very long distance prospect. it will take five years probably to develop and another 5—10 years to basically deliver so it doesn't really address the immediate energy problems at all. wide when it comes to the idea of fracking, to extract gas from shale, this is something that was discussed in much detail and then shelved by the uk government where is of course in the us, we see a thriving industry there are now the situation with russia, energy prices soaring, it is back on the agenda, isn't it? it's definitely back on the agenda and in many senses, also part of people needing to understand whole process of going also requires a transition and we won't be able to get ourselves away from hydrocarbon energy, which provides us with about 84% globally of our power resources. forat least globally of our power resources. for at least 2— three decades. in the meantime, this would be a good alternative and may help to make the uk definitely a little bit more self—sufficient. bit more self-sufficient. but the concerns about the impact fracking could have, at the time when it was discussed, huge opposition to say not only is it environmentally randomly, but it could also cause earth tremors and that concern is still very real today, isn't it? that concern will continue, there is no doubt about it. hence why ineos wants to provide a test site and invite the public or rather the government into actually watch the whole process of trying to develop this. part of the problem here is we also have very extreme views and some of it, not all of it, is very much a case of nimbyism, among other things. irate a case of nimbyism, among other thins. ~ . a case of nimbyism, among other thins. . ., ., a case of nimbyism, among other thins. ~ ., ., i. things. we want to get your take on the _ things. we want to get your take on the week _ things. we want to get your take on the week ahead, i things. we want to get your i take on the week ahead, there is going to be a lot going on, we've heard from china already. france, how do you think markets will diejust france, how do you think markets will die just the news about this first round of the presidential election? in the first instance, it's the fact that yes, he did better than most people feared bit on the other hand, the second round poles give reason for concern but ultimately markets remain very focused on what central banks will be doing. bind very focused on what central banks will be doing. and how aggressive — banks will be doing. and how aggressive are _ banks will be doing. and how aggressive are they - banks will be doing. and how aggressive are they going i banks will be doing. and how aggressive are they going to | aggressive are they going to be. that is what has a long—term impact. markets have been largely very complacent about just been largely very complacent aboutjust how been largely very complacent about just how far and been largely very complacent aboutjust how far and are now catching up with the reality of just how aggressive some central banks are going to be. mark, good to talk to you. let's see how the asian markets are faring today.. hong kong is down, nearly 2.5%, as is the price of oil. japan also down as well. basically we've got the mood, real caution in equity markets with a weak pact with central—bank meetings, us inflation data, lots out in the uk as well. it's a busy one, you need to stay tuned. that is all from me for now. hello, there. there was a lot of sunshine around first thing on sunday, but it was cold and frosty, and it was quite widespread across the country. these were the kind of temperatures we woke up to first thing on sunday morning — as low as —6 celsius. now, all change and quite literally as we speak because of this area of low pressure that's throwing cloud right across the country and that is acting like a blanket, so it's preventing those temperatures from falling too far. it will be a frost—free start to monday morning with temperatures more likely about four, five, six degrees above freezing. so, a difference to the feel of the weather and quite a cloudy, grey story first thing in the morning. the winds are going to strengthen and that's going to throw up some showery outbreaks of rain through wales, northern ireland, north west england as well through the day. quite blustery winds as well, either coming from a southerly or south—easterly direction, widely gusting in excess of 30 miles an hour. but sheltered eastern areas will see some sunshine and with the wind direction now coming from the south, that means it will be a little bit warmer — 17 degrees the expected high. thundery downpours are likely into the south—west through monday night into tuesday and we can trail that weather front all the way back down into spain. in fact, the air is coming up from the sahara. it's going to be pushing its way steadily north, with the exception perhaps of the northern isles — here, you will stay in the cooler air for the next few days. so, that means first thing on tuesday morning, we're likely to see temperatures four degrees in lerwick but ten or 11 degrees not out of the question across central and southern parts of england and wales. yes, there's going to be some rain, some of it quite heavy, some thundery downpours pushing their way steadily north and because the air is coming from the sahara, it could have sprinkling of saharan dust in that rain as well — that mightjust turn your washing or your cars a little bit grainy, a little bit orange at times. in terms of the feel of things, 17 or 18 degrees down into the south—east. where the cloud and the rain lingers, we're only looking at around a maximum of 6—8 celsius. but the rain will ease away, the isobars open up through the middle part of the week, and the weather story is set to quieten down. it looks likely that wednesday will be the warmest day of the week with 19 or 20 degrees not out of the question. a good deal of dry weather as well as we head towards the easter weekend. whatever you're doing, take care and enjoy. good morning, welcome to breakfast with sally nugent and jon kay. our headlines today. emmanuel macron will face the far—right challenger marine le pen in a run—off for the french presidency, a rerun of the vote of five years ago. ukraine's president zelensky warns of big battles to come against russian forces in the east of the country. after questions about his wife's tax affairs, chancellor rishi sunak asks for an official review of his financial declarations. good morning. another week, another warning of an increased cost of a staple, this time dairy farmers say unless we are willing to pay more for our milk, we can expect