the global economy is set to grow more slowly next year than previously forecast, according to the international monetary fund. the imf now expects global growth to go from 5.9% in 2021 to 4.4% in 2022. the organisation also sharply downgraded its forecasts for the world's two biggest global economies, the us and china. speaking to our economics editor faisal islam, the imf�*s deputy managing director, gita gopinath, explained why. omicron led to a downgrade for the first quarter of this year, but for the annual growth rate as a whole, we are looking at affecting growth by —1 percentage point. in the case of the us, it is because of a smaller fiscal package in the sense that built to get back better is no longer our baseline —— build back better. in the case of china, consumption is not recovering as quickly as we thought it would. ~ , ., , as quickly as we thought it would. ~ ,, , ., ., would. when you see inflation rates of 7% — would. when you see inflation rates of 7% of _ would. when you see inflation rates of 7% of the _ would. when you see inflation rates of 7% of the us, - would. when you see inflation rates of 7% of the us, five - would. when you see inflation rates of 7% of the us, five to l rates of 7% of the us, five to 6% in the uk and the same sort of amounts 6% in the uk and the same sort ofamounts in 6% in the uk and the same sort of amounts in europe, these are inflation rates that you would perhaps never have expected to see in developed countries. how concerned is the imf about becoming less than transitory — becoming less than transitory — becoming not a permanent feature but a medium term feature, having a stagflation really affected in some of these richer countries? because ofthe these richer countries? because of the pandemic _ these richer countries? because of the pandemic there _ these richer countries? because of the pandemic there has - these richer countries? because of the pandemic there has been | of the pandemic there has been a big demand regarding goods and services. that has put pressure on supply chains. because of the health crisis is there are significant worker shortages. we have seen that in omicron in different parts of the world and shutdowns around the world and shutdowns around the world and shutdowns around the world have also had an effect. it is not a simple narrative for inflation. inflation has gone up a lot of the headline numbers certainly depend on the big bounce back in energy prices and in oil prices and gas prices, but indeed you are seeing services inflation go up in the us and the uk, so it is getting more broad based. and while we still aren't seeing any wage price spiral is, that is a risk that we are worried about. our expectation is that inflation will decline over this year. it will decline over this year. it will stay high. it will be above most countries' targets, but it will come down over this year and by 2023 we are closer to target levels.— to target levels. there is that bi . to target levels. there is that big geopolitical _ to target levels. there is that big geopolitical risk _ to target levels. there is that big geopolitical risk with - big geopolitical risk with tensions between russia and the ukraine. if some sort of invasion happened, what would that do to prices and to the recovery?— that do to prices and to the recove ? .,, , ., , recovery? europe is potentially more exposed _ recovery? europe is potentially more exposed than _ recovery? europe is potentially more exposed than some - recovery? europe is potentially| more exposed than some other parts of the world are, but thatis parts of the world are, but that is an important concern that is an important concern that we have. and, of course, if there is going to be a very prolonged period of high energy prices and that could then have knock—on effect in terms of people demanding higher wages, which would then spill over into higher price inflation in other sectors as well. that is something we are paying very close attention to. let's stick with the state of the global economy, because it was another wild ride for wall street on tuesday. stocks lurched for a second day as america's central bank began its two—day policy meeting. michelle fleury has the latest in new york. us markets once again staged a remarkable comeback. the dow jones industrial average closed lower, but it was well off its lows for the day. in terms of individual stocks, american express was a standout after it reported better—than—expected corporate profit. but shares in general electric helped to drag down the benchmark s&p 500 index, which is down at this point a percent injanuary. behind the wild swings is anxiety over the us central bank's plans to raise interest rates. jerome powell, head of the federal reserve, has done his bit to support fortune growth during the pandemic, but investors are now looking to him to find out what comes next is the us central bank plans to withdraw stimulus to fight inflation. emotions are still running high on wall street. stocks fell before bouncing off their lows. it follows monday's remarkable comeback, when shares rocketed back after a big drop. fears over how aggressively the fed will act on the impact that will have on asset prices % us shares lower before bouncing off their lows. now we have inflation, and the only way you deal with inflation, and we learned this inflation, and we learned this in the eight 1970s and early 19805, in the eight 1970s and early 1980s, is you have to be aggressive with interest rates. and i don't know if the markets were ready for that.— were ready for that. rather than risk — were ready for that. rather than risk the _ were ready for that. rather than risk the rescue - were ready for that. rather than risk the rescue of - were ready for that. rather than risk the rescue of the | than risk the rescue of the markets, jerome powell will instead try to communicate the fed's next moves to wall street. will he succeed in soothing the market's frazzled nerves or can we expect more volatility in the weeks ahead? markets have opened fairly flat, the price of oil down slightly but still incredibly high. nearly 88 dollars for a barrel of brent. looking at wall street, michelle outlined theissues wall street, michelle outlined the issues on the minds of traders. reserve wrapping up its meetings today, what will jerome powell say is ahead for traders? you can see that the tech waited nasdaq is down over 2%. one of the big losers with microsoft. its earnings were out, we will look at those later. something that has come out from the department of commerce in the us, we have just been reporting that there is a huge shortfall in chips supply. semiconductorsuppliers supply. semiconductor suppliers are saying supply. semiconductorsuppliers are saying they have seen a massive drop in the supply of chips. all of this is a massive problem, supply chain issues impacting the global economy. car manufacturers and others have been grappling with this for a long time and it is not improving. that is a real problem. well, as you heard there, it is inflation and interest rates that are preoccupying the minds of many american market watchers, and with good reason. prices in the us rose at their fastest rate in almost a0 years in december, with inflation hitting 7% year—on—year. that is well north of policymakers' 2% target. at the beginning of the pandemic, the us fed cut interest rates to almost zero in a bid to protect the economy from the effects of coronavirus, and they've stayed there ever since. fed chiefjerome powell has pledged to keep inflation in check by raising interest rates and could confirm this week that the first of those will come in march. joining me now to discuss is thomas hoenig, seniorfellow at the mercatus center. he was also president and ceo of the federal reserve bank of kansas city, among other roles. thomas, good to talk to you again. so the fed today, your thoughts. what willjerome powell say? he has so far been very good at steering us all on what is ahead. thomas, can you hear us? i don't know if he can hear us? i don't know if he can hear us, unfortunately. let's try one more time. thomas is ready and poise. we will try to talk to him later on in the programme. apologies, clearly he could hear us, to get his take on what is ahead for the fed. we will look at that later. let's get some of the day's other news: the united states says it has helped secure deals to protect europe from running out of gas in case supplies from russia are disrupted due to sanctions. the news comes as some of italy's top companies, including pirelli, gear up for a meeting today via video link with president putin to discuss boosting business ties between the two countries. microsoft's latest results are out. the tech giant saw revenue rise by 20% to $51.7 billion in the final three months of last year. the firm has become one of the world's most valuable companies in recent years after betting big on cloud computing. last week, microsoft announced plans to expand its gaming offering by purchasing activision blizzard for close to $70 billion. from today, cafes, bars, museums and theatres will reopen in the netherlands to those who have been vaccinated, tested negative or recently recovered from covid. dutch hospitality settings have been shut since late december in a bid to curb the spread of the omicron variant. drivers should not be legally accountable for road safety in the era of autonomous cars, according to a report by britain's law commission. the report says that those behind the wheel should be redefined as a user in charge, and if anything goes wrong, the company behind the auto driving system should be responsible. it sounds like a legal minefield. joining me now is jane foley, head of foreign exchange strategy at rabobank. the lawyers are going to be extremely busy in the era of driverless cars. this will be an interesting question in terms of who is responsible. it is. this isjust a recommendation, it is not law yet. we don't have much in the way of automated vehicles right now. there is a sliding scale about what constitutes an automated vehicle. hazlitt�*s system, for instance, is only level two, and that in legal terms is not an automated vehicle. at the moment in the uk and many other countries there is an ability to use what they call automated lane keeping systems, but it is very restricted. you can only use it in congested motorways, only up to about 37 mph, and you have to about 37 mph, and you have to be set there as the driver ready to take control within ten seconds. at the moment we don't have any legal automated vehicles, but these recommendations from the law commission are therefore when we do, and it means that if you have got an automated vehicle and it goes through a red light, it is not yourfault and it goes through a red light, it is not your fault as the use of the vehicle. it will be down to the producer of the technology, i.e. the car manufacturer.— technology, i.e. the car manufacturer. �* . ., ., manufacturer. and we have to go back to the _ manufacturer. and we have to go back to the basics, _ manufacturer. and we have to go back to the basics, haven't - manufacturer. and we have to go back to the basics, haven't we, i back to the basics, haven't we, with all of this, and set out the legal framework. they even have to define legally what is self—driving. have to define legally what is self-driving.— self-driving. this is exactly ri . ht. self-driving. this is exactly right. there _ self-driving. this is exactly right. there are _ self-driving. this is exactly right. there are some - self-driving. this is exactly - right. there are some concerns that certainly in the uk we are behind. philip hammond, ithink in 2017, suggested that by 2021 we would be a little bit further up the curve in terms of automated vehicles. there is the expectation that these will help reduce a lot of crashes, but of course, that assumes that the technology is right and that the testing is right, and that the testing is right, and this is what has been slow. i think mercedes in germany are a little bit further up the curve, they have a level three system, above hazlitt�*s level two system, but it will take quite awhile yet. —— haslar's level two system. it is good the legal system is producing some clarity for drivers for when we are there with the technology —— tesla. the technology -- tesla. the lawyers _ technology -- tesla. the lawyers are _ technology -- tesla. the lawyers are on _ technology -- tesla. the lawyers are on the - technology -- tesla. the lawyers are on the road. | technology —— tesla. the lawyers are on the road. they are strapped in. we will see you soon. we have managed to connect with thomas hoenig to talk about the federal reserve and what it might say later today. he has had various roles including president of the federal bank in kansas city. great to be able to talk to you. you can hear me, can't you? i you. you can hear me, can't ou? ., ~' you. you can hear me, can't ou? ., ~ i., you. you can hear me, can't ou? ., ~' i. , you? i can, thank you very much. you? i can, thank you very much- and _ you? i can, thank you very much. and we _ you? i can, thank you very much. and we can - you? i can, thank you very much. and we can just - you? i can, thank you very i much. and we can just about much. and we can 'ust about hear you. t much. and we can 'ust about hear you. so _ much. and we can 'ust about hear you, so we _ much. and we can just about hear you, so we will- much. and we can just about hear you, so we will fix - much. and we can just about hear you, so we will fix that. j hear you, so we will fix that. the beauty of live television. give me your thoughts on what jerome powell might say later today in terms of steering us all in our expectations for when rates may increase in the us. i when rates may increase in the us. ~' when rates may increase in the us. ~ . . . us. i think the current chair lead by jerome _ us. i think the current chair lead by jerome powell - us. i think the current chair lead by jerome powell will. us. i think the current chair - lead by jerome powell will have lead byjerome powell will have a long conversation today and i think they will be focused on not the tapering, which they will be done with by march, and the big question will be do they start raising rates immediately at the next meeting, will they announce that today, that they will be doing that? i don't know the answer to that, but i suspect that they will at least have some discussions along those lines as they try and catch up. they are a little bit behind the curve on getting rates up to take care of the inflation, so i know there will be a lot of pressure on them to do that. just to get your take on how effective increased interest rates will be in this current scenario we are in, because of course inflation is at 7%, that is extremely high, will putting up is extremely high, will putting up the cost of borrowing really have the effect of ringing it down? , ~ , down? yes, i think it will be effective _ down? yes, i think it will be effective at _ down? yes, i think it will be effective at bringing - down? yes, i think it will be effective at bringing it - down? yes, i think it will be effective at bringing it down| effective at bringing it down but it is going to cause them to have some possible side—effects, and that is a slowing economy when they least want it. i think the real test of the fed will be once they have raised rates, will they be able and willing to keep them higher? when i say higher, i mean if they get to i% this summer, to keep them there if the economy starts to slow and the unemployment rate starts to rise in the us. they need to stay with that and hopefully not have a big increase in unemployment, because if they don't, they risk increasing some of the mistakes that were made in earlier periods where you kind of tighten policy and the economy slows and then you back away from that, and then inflation actually gets higher. that would be the worst outcome, and that is a danger if they had a stop go policy, which they have to be careful of. ., ., , ., which they have to be careful of. ., . , . ., . of. thomas, we have to leave it there. i wish _ of. thomas, we have to leave it there. i wish we _ of. thomas, we have to leave it there. i wish we could - of. thomas, we have to leave it there. i wish we could speak . there. i wish we could speak for longer, but sadly we haven't got enough time. thank you so much for your analysis, and i know we will talk to you again soon. i and i know we will talk to you again soon-— again soon. i hope so, thank ou. again soon. i hope so, thank you. needless _ again soon. i hope so, thank you. needless to _ again soon. i hope so, thank you. needless to say, - again soon. i hope so, thank you. needless to say, we . again soon. i hope so, thank| you. needless to say, we will let ou you. needless to say, we will let you know _ you. needless to say, we will let you know when _ you. needless to say, we will let you know when the - you. needless to say, we will let you know when the fed i let you know when the fed starts to speak at the press conference. we will be all over it here on bbc news. still to come: the multimillion—dollar business rejected by dragons' den. we hear from alex savelli, the founder of pasta evangelists, about how he cooked up a recipe for success after being turned down. the shuttle challenger exploded soon after lift—off. there were seven astronauts on board, one of them a woman schoolteacher. by the evening, tahrir square, the heart of official cairo, was in the hands of the demonstrators. they were using the word 'revolution'. the earthquake - singled out buildings and brought them down in seconds. _ tonight, the search for any survivors. has an increasing desperation about it as the hours pass. i the new government is firmly in control of the entire republic of uganda. survivors of the auschwitz concentration camp have been commemorating the 40th anniversary of their liberation. they toured the huts, gas chambers and crematoria and relived their horrifying experiences. this is bbc news. the latest headlines: a long—awaited report into lockdown parties in downing street is due, that could determine borisjohnson's future as prime minister. more tough talk over ukraine. president biden says he'd consider personal sanctions on vladimir putin if russia carried out an invasion. now for the latest in our ceo secrets series. alex savelli is the founder of pasta evangelists, a fresh pasta recipe box business that was rejected by the dragons on the tv show dragons den. his business was described as 'pasta la disaster�*. but it seems the real disaster was their decision to not invest because he recently sold a majority stake in the business for over $50 million dollars. here's his top tips for success. i think you have got to walk the eyes. from a business perspective if you have to take risks and you have to do it quickly. started with 20 portions of gnocchi, now it is 2000 portions every month. we have been approached by the biggest pasta come many in the world and we wish to be the authority in fresh pasta. this is asta authority in fresh pasta. this is pasta la — authority in fresh pasta. this is pasta la disaster. - authority in fresh pasta. this is pasta la disaster. it - authority in fresh pasta. this is pasta la disaster. it was i is pasta la disaster. it was such an — is pasta la disaster. it was such an amazing - is pasta la disaster. it was i such an amazing experience. is pasta la disaster. it was - such an amazing experience. it was painful to be rejected. having said that, they have had over a thousand meetings, so i'm quite used to rejection. you can't do all the research. you've got to get cracking, walk on the ice, sometimes you make mistakes. so long as you do it quickly and you are learning from them, opportunities have a very limited shelflife, so you've got to be fast. still lots of work to be done. i think we are very passionate, i'm italian, love food, i love pasta, i think creating food is something quite intimate, something quite intimate, something quite intimate, something quite special. you eat food, goes inside your body, it's nourishing, and therefore there is something really quite unique about developing a food product. gosh, i could have a delivery right now. that has made me very hungry. they say that space is the final frontier, but it's also increasingly being seen as a lucrative investment opportunity. the european space conference is currently under way in brussels and top of the agenda is how the region can get a bigger slice of the world's fast growing satellite business. joining me now is nick spall, a space writer and fellow of the royal astronomical society. good morning to you. tell us about this event. how was your trying to get in on the eight. is it not being dominated by elon musk, china, and others? spacex is certainly head of the pack. there seems to be a general desire for independence from europe. not only are we talking about competing with stalin, the satellite system, we are also talking about europe having its own human space flight ability —— styling. spacecraft that could carry astronauts to the space station. things are really moving along. at the moment the conference is talking about the possibility of this competitor, lots of investment being discussed, up to $5 million to get this internet system going. this year is going to be very interesting in terms of commitments.- interesting in terms of commitments. ., ., , ., ~' commitments. how does it work in terms of _ commitments. how does it work in terms of who _ commitments. how does it work in terms of who gets _ commitments. how does it work in terms of who gets to - commitments. how does it work in terms of who gets to put - in terms of who gets to put what where? it is not really regulated, is it and it is getting busy out there, if they going to be a concern about what that means in the future? is going to be a system based on national licensing. so at the moment elon musk�*s starlink system is basically licensed by 24 system is basically licensed by 2a countries across the world. and if you can try and show that your system is ahead of the game, then you are more likely to get the license. elon musk has got plans for 22,000 satellites, internet satellites, internet satellites, 1700 at the moment. each launch puts up about 60 extra ones. he really is pushing hard. other nations are coming up. the uk have an investment in one web, which has a 600 internet satellites. things are moving along. they are indeed. i'm sure you will be tuning in. the european space compensator. nick spall, thank you. they say that a happy workforce is a productive workforce, but what do you do if you're unhappy in your role? new research out today reveals over a third of uk workers are unhappy in their job, but why? joining me now is jan—emmanuel de neve directs the wellbeing research centre at the university of oxford. i believe you were involved in this research, what were your findings, particularly in the uk? ~ ., , , findings, particularly in the uk? ., , , . findings, particularly in the uk? . , , . ., findings, particularly in the uk? . , ,~ uk? we are pretty excited to be able to launch _ uk? we are pretty excited to be able to launch the _ uk? we are pretty excited to be able to launch the happiness - able to launch the happiness score in the uk, already available in the us and canada. the findings are, first and foremost, there is definitely a cause for concern with over one third of workers in the uk feeling unhappy most of the time. that doesn't mean there is cause for optimism, we find that even in challenging industries and challenging areas in the uk companies that do rather well, where people do feel happy most of the time so there is optimism and there is a way forward. this there is optimism and there is a way forward.— a way forward. as the most ha - a way forward. as the most happy profession, - a way forward. as the most| happy profession, according a way forward. as the most i happy profession, according to your research, is that of education. i did homeschooling a loss in the last couple of years and i was not happy. i've found it very difficult stop thatis found it very difficult stop that is a great result, isn't it, to tell us that those who work in education are happy. true. we find workers in education, government services a close second, aerospace and defence, and also nonprofits, perhaps surprisingly for some, all the way on top of the industries that do best in terms of work happiness. when you dig a bit deeper in the study you find it is mostly driven by a sense of purpose and these are, after all, highly vocational disciplines that attract people that find that attract people that find that sense of purpose. at the bottom end, however, we do find morejobs of the bottom end, however, we do find more jobs of the kind bottom end, however, we do find morejobs of the kind in bottom end, however, we do find more jobs of the kind in the real estate industry, as well as management consulting. so there is a wide variety in work happiness across the uk and also across the world, really. just briefly, who takes notice of this kind of information that you put out there, apart from those who want to be happy in the workplace? this from those who want to be happy in the workplace?— in the workplace? this is the thing that — in the workplace? this is the thing that makes _ in the workplace? this is the thing that makes me - in the workplace? this is the thing that makes me most i thing that makes me most excited, it is a level of transparency now with this data no longer being obtained through word—of—mouth but being freely available online and facilitating job seekers and employers. all right. it is good to talk to you. i think ou good to talk to you. i think you are — good to talk to you. i think you are happy- _ good to talk to you. i think you are happy. they i good to talk to you. i think you are happy. they get i good to talk to you. i think. you are happy. they get that impression. thank you for being on the programme. and thank you for your company. on the programme. and thank you foryour company. i hope on the programme. and thank you for your company. i hope you have a lovely day. see you soon. hello there. wednesday brings the promise of a bit more brightness. some sunshine, even, across parts of england and wales after what has been a very stagnant and cloudy and cold few days. you can see that haze of grey on the earlier satellite picture. bright white cloud up to the north—west, though. that's indicative of frontal systems approaching, eventually bringing some rain into scotland and northern ireland, with a strengthening wind. so, through wednesday, england and wales having a better chance of some sunny spells, although towards the south—east corner it may stay cloudy for a good part of the day. strengthening winds across northern areas. rain just getting into northern ireland, certainly setting in across western and north—western scotland through the afternoon. gusts of wind in excess of 50 mph in exposed north—western parts. but milder than it has been, certainly across england and wales — eight, nine, ten degrees. northern ireland and scotland up to ten or 11. through wednesday night, it will turn very, very windy in the far north. gales, even severe gales, close to the northern isles. our band of cloud and increasingly light and patchy rain will be sinking its way southwards through the night. with some fairly windy weather, and relatively cloudy weather as well, temperatures should stay above freezing in most places. so, into thursday, this frontal system pushing its way southwards, taking cloud and patchy rain across england and wales. low pressure still close to the north—east of scotland, so a very blustery start to the day here. that wind will only slowly ease as the day wears on. our band of cloud and patchy rain clinging on for a time across southern counties of england. it should clear out into the english channel by the afternoon to allow brighter skies to develop. some showers feeding in on the north—westerly breeze. temperatures for most of us between seven and 12 degrees. now, thursday night could get a little bit chilly, this ridge of high pressure building in. that could allow for some frost and some fog, but there's another frontal system approaching from the west. that'll be freshening up the winds as we go through the day, particularly across northern ireland and scotland. rain getting into north—west scotland. in fact, some quite heavy rain through the north—west highlands. further south and east, increasing amounts of cloud. best of the sunshine in eastern counties. eight or nine degrees along the east coast of england. more like ten or 11 for western parts of the uk. the weekend looks unsettled and changeable. some rain at times, but not all the time. could be quite windy and generally, particularly on saturday, very mild. good morning, welcome to breakfast with dan walker and sally nugent. our headlines today. the official inquiry into lockdown parties at downing street is believed to be complete, and could be released today. the uk and us threaten sanctions against russia, if president putin decides to invade ukraine. the future is electric, but are car buyers willing and ready to make the switch, and can car—makers overcome supply chain issues? ifind out. a week to save derby county — emergency talks continue to try and save one of the founding members of the football league. reunited after more than 50 years — a woman who was kidnapped as a toddler, finally meets one of the men who saved her life.