now on bbc news it's time for dateline. hello and welcome to the programme which brings together some of the best known columnists on uk newspapers, bbc specialists, and the foreign correspondents who write, blog and broadcast to audiences back home from the dateline: london. this week, record breaking daily increases in covid infection hit the uk. pleas, not lockdown, are the order of the day, though the public are already voting with their feet. borisjohnson�*s pleas are ignored by 100 of his own mps, and by voters in a previously loyal part of england. is he now leader of the party and the country only in name? henry chu is long—serving foreign correspondent and deputy news editor at the la times. polly toynbee is a veteran columnist on the left—of—centre guardian newspaper. and simonjack, the bbc�*s business editor, is here in the studio. good to see you, simon, and good to have you bothjoining us from parts around the uk while we maintain all our social distancing forjust that little bit longer as a result of what's happening at the moment. let's begin in downing street, who have been having a week they'd rather forget. three things may explain why. a newspaper published a photo of a christmas party last year held in the basement of borisjohson�*s party headquarters, at a time when all such activities were against the law. the uk's leading civil servant, the cabinet secretary, was investigating "gatherings" inside downing street, one of them in the prime minister's own flat — at least he was. it turns out his office organised what it called a christmas party, too. on tuesday, the imposition of covd vaccine certficates, which have become a condition of entry to public venues, provoked the biggest rebellion of borisjohnson�*s premiership. 100 mps — that's half of all those conservatives who aren't part of what's known as the payroll vote, like ministers — opposed him. 0n the most important question of the day, and on hisjudgment of how to keep the public safe, it appears they do not trust him. nor, if the result announced in the early hours of friday morning in a parliamentary by—election, do some voters. polly toynbee, i can imagine the singing choruses, that was the week that was. it's over, let it go, in downing street and in boris johnson's flat. it rather sounded as if that was the prime minister's position. because he sort of said, "well, look, "there was a lot look, there was a lot "of stuff in the headlines, and that got in the way "of the voters seeing what a tremendous job we're doing "for them in doing things that will improve their lives." were the voters blinded by the stuff people like you and other journalists have been putting in front of them? well, i think it's traditional that politicians blame the media for bad stories they've created themselves. he's had one worst week after another for about the last six weeks, culminating in a catastrophic by—election yesterday. it would be hard to compile as many disasters as have struck him, and most of them are things that he himself has done. he said, "i take responsibility for the result," bad results and growing unpopularity, but then he refused to actually take responsibility for anything in particular. but, you know, one thing after another at a time of great hardship in this country, where the economy, people are really feeling the pinch, where covid is very threatening to everybody�*s way of life, and his own party is in absolute rebellion and some chaos. and his own party very much out of kilter with the public. the public are much more worried about being cautious about covid restrictions. we have a party that's very libertarian and thinks any restriction is... you know, they were comparing it to stalin and hitler, very, very modest regulations. so, the party itself was somewhat out of control, notjust borisjohnson himself. henry, all prime ministers have difficult periods. some are able to bring themselves are able to bring themselves back from those and after a few months or years, everyone has almost forgotten because by the time of the next election, they've got themselves back into public favour. i mean, even margaret thatcher had some rough, very rough periods during her first four years as prime minister, and then won a stunning victory. but i suppose the difficulty here is that borisjohnson is the great communicator, and if the great communicator can't get his message through despite irritating people in the media, then that potentially is a problem, isn't it? that might cause them to change leader, although one tory mp said to me earlier, "he's probably got six months "to pull things around because we don't want to do "anything in haste and we still hope he can do it." but there is a kind of practical question here, isn't there, that it might be that actually, he is still their best option? well, first of all, i think a prime minister who himself was a journalist as a livelihood before he became a political figure really doesn't have much to say in terms of criticising journalists. so let me just say that that feels a little rich, to begin with. but in terms of being the great communicator, it's no doubt that borisjohnson has a particular kind of charm that really resonates with voters, that he's really more like a great cheerleader. and that was of great benefit back in the election campaign two years ago when brexit was looming and it was a great project that the country was embarking on, a leaping into the unknown. and so, here was borisjohnson in his blustery bluff fashion, reassuring the electorate and telling everyone that great things lie ahead. well, this is a little bit different. people voted for brexit, they didn't vote for the pandemic, and this is something he needs to manage much more effectively, i think, than has been the case. and the voters are beginning to see that, as well as these scandals of sleaze that we've talked about, and that have been dominating the headlines, that have been own goals by this government. now, he needs to be able to communicate not just with the public, but with his own backbenchers and his own party leaders. and if he's not able to do that and show he can pull everything together within a few months, i think he will be in danger. changing a leader is very disruptive, but they're two years out still from the next election, a little bit more than two years, so he has some time to do that because public memories can be short. but i don't think the party will necessarily be forgiving of him if the current electoral trends keep continuing with lost by—elections like this. simon, ruth davidson, who was the conservative leader in scotland, was on the radio on friday, saying one of the examples of what she thought was poor leadership was that speech we talked about a few weeks ago, the peppa pig speech, when he was addressing the confederation of british industry. why has that cause such bad feeling? well, i was there. i was standing not much furtherl from him then you are from me. so you were able to look and look around at the audience...? i did look round, i have to be honest about it. i i've seen quite a few borisjohnson speeches to business. _ i it's an audience he doesn't feel, i unusually for a conservative prime minister, that comfortable in front of _ i think he finds their strictures, spreadsheets and analysis - and all that kind of stuff a little bit sort of stifling. _ and sometimes, like during the brexit debate, he saw. the caution of businesses who had real money on the line, _ he saw that... he saw, dare i say, the conservatism of business... well, he just thought... he thought it was, you know, cautious at best, a form - of cowardice at worst. and also, i think he finds business people quite tedious, _ if i'm truly honest, i having watched him in these scenarios. strange, in that sense, he's a bit like ted heath, who used to get very angry about british business coming in to see him and just saying, we need a bit more money, we need a bit more this, and not being very imaginative and creative, in his view, at least. well, businesses i like to be positive, but i wouldn't call them... signing up to the kind _ of boosterism that some people accused borisjohnson of. so i was surprised, if i'm honest, probably a damning indictment . of myjournalistic instincts, of how big a story that - became on the day. i think it's now fadedl because as i say, that was par for the course. i've seen him talk to a bunchj of bankers and their partners in davos in switzerland, _ when he was trying to persuade them not to go to switzerland | after the financial crisis, saying you couldn't do a, well, number two after midnight, i because you'd get reported to the authorities. - and everyone roared with laughter. and it was all part - of brand borisjohnson. but i think where the real stuff hit was around - the owen paterson inquiry, which is why we've - had the by—election. yes, there wouldn't be a by—election if he hadn't tried to save 0wen paterson. i mean, his suspension- would be almost over by now! had it been played| slightly differently. so i don't think brand boris, - in a way, was damaged too much by the peppa pig thing, - but i think a series of whatever dominic cummings's former aide would call the trolley going off. ——dominic cummings, his former aide would call the trolley going off- or whatever, the trolley going off the road of the car going off- the road, has hit him. but the point is, on an economic basis, we have had a number- of things that have come along - recently which may be we'll get to, which is the fact that inflation is now rising faster— than people's wages. that is a pretty toxic area for any | politician in any country to be in. j and it's notjust- happening in the uk. it's happening elsewhere. we should make that point. but when you're not getting i on in life, when you're working as hard as you can and actually, prices are rising faster- than you can afford to pay for them, then you begin to feel you're - not getting ahead. and i think that's one _ of the fundamental contracts that you make with the people, that if you do this, - your life will improve. and i think that is one of the things, people i are seeing their energy bills go up, their petrol prices and wages not . going up in line with that. i think that will be the biggest issue of 2022 on my watch, i which will be inflation, i how high, for how long. polly, that's another reason why the politics are going to get more difficult in the coming year at least for borisjohnson. i heard ruth davidson also in that interview say, "a bit of bloody grip," as she put it rather bluntly. and that seemed to reflect some of the exasperation that other conservatives have expressed. there will be some tories, though, who see a silver lining and say, "well, at the end of the day, it was won by the liberal democrats, "who are probably not going to be the party that can hope to defeat us "at the general election. "that's labour, and they went from second place to third place. "therefore it can't be as bad as some people are suggesting." that's a serious misjudgment because there has always been a majority against the conservative party but it's been split between labour and the lib dems and the greens and other parties. if you really are seeing, in a place like north shropshire, which is very, very deeply and solidly conservative, if you're willing to see people vote tactically to get the conservatives out so that labour voters, who, there were more of them at the last election than liberal democrat voters, are willing to lend their votes to the liberal democrats, whatever it takes to get a conservative out, they're in real trouble because they have relied on that split. one of the most extraordinary things is that this was a very strongly pro—brexit area, deeply rural and pro—brexit. how extraordinary that they have voted for the most anti—brexit party of all, the liberal democrats. it shows that brexit is no longer a political issue in this country. that's what broke labour apart at the last election. that's now over, it's finished. people think brexit is done. they don't want to hear about it any more. and some of borisjohnson�*s mistakes has been to pick quarrels, particularly with the french, because he thinks it will revive his fortunes because he was the great "get brexit done" man. well, brexit is done and people are fed up with it. they don't want to have fights with europe or with france and they don't want fights with america, protecting the irish, trouble over the irish border. so, he's made so many miscalculations, but this will really change politics if brexit is no longer really an issue. on that question of brexit no longer being an issue, this christmas, it doesn't really matter whether you've been naughty or nice because 0micron is coming to town, if it isn't already in your town. in the 2a hours to friday of this week, 93,000 people were infected. daily records have been broken all this week, and will probably continue to be broken, as the rate at which people are becoming infected far exceeds anything seen in the pandemic so far. boris johnson described the british government's response as a "jabathon" — giving people vaccine boosterjabs to limit any effect this new, largely unknown variant of covid will have. it may be a milder infection than previous variants, but if the numbers infected are so much greater than before, then more people will end up in hospital. and i suppose, henry, in that sense, if you could give us a sense of already what impact this is having and why, i suppose, in a sense, we're not starting from scratch here. we're starting in a situation where lots of other medical procedures have had to be put on hold over the last 21 months to deal with covid, and now the point perhaps where people were starting to feel the health service was able to get back into routine, some of it very important, some of it life—saving routine, it's kind of going to be pushed back into a kind of reacting to covid situation. i'mjust remembering a year ago now when also, you had a new variant that was the kent variant, that was discovered here in britain, was galloping through the country. and the uncertainty that people felt. and now, just exactly 12 months later, we're having a bit of a rerun of that with with omicron. i think the scientists are still saying the jury is out. the data are trickling in in places like south africa, where it was first detected. but here in britain, the scientific advisers are saying it won't be until the end of the month and possibly well into january before we have a really strong picture as to whether omicron, which does appear to be more transmissible, is actually less virulent. now, as you said, if it's less virulent, but is still attacking a larger base of people, that could still create great problems for the health service. and we'll have to see how that pans out. we're seeing it doubling in the us every couple of days, which is much faster than delta, but hospitalisations haven't gone up across the board. they've been bad in some places like michigan or new york, and we've been seeing a lot more omicron cases there, but i think we need to approach this with the same caution that we've approached the other variants. we don't know exactly how two booster shots... excuse me, two regular doses of the vaccine will hold up. it seems like they don't hold up so well, so we do need to be going under the jabathon promotion that borisjohnson is promoting, and also just taking the cautions that we've now already become quite accustomed to, and are of really no hardship, to wear a mask in public, let's say, which is now mandatory once again in public spaces here in britain and also in my home state of california. these are easy measures. and let's pull together to try to keep omicron at bay, as much as we can. polly, insofar as this debate has happened in this country, it was focused on that defeat this week on covid vaccine certificates, which will come in anyway because the opposition parties largely supported the prime minister, even if many of his backbenchers did not. the prime minister says we're not going to lockdown christmas, we're not planning any lockdown. in a sense, the public seems to be acting with their own... voting with their feet, as i said before, they seem to have taken it on themselves to decide when it's good to take the risk and when not. that's quite an encouraging sign, isn't it? i think it is. the people have been more sensible than this government, right from the very beginning. the queen herself has started cancelling christmas events. she doesn't want her family meeting together in too many numbers before christmas, and that's what other people are doing round the country. they are cancelling, to the great hardship of restaurants, they are cancelling office parties and family parties. i think there is a precautionary principle that the public understand about public health. if in doubt, we don't know how bad omicron will be, because it will take quite a few weeks before you really get mass hospitalisations. if that's what we're going to get. we're not there yet. people are cautious. i think there's a lot of trouble with the nhs. i've been covering the nhs for more decades than i'd like to count, and it has never been in such a fragile state. and it entered this covid crisis having had a decade of its most stringent funding since it was founded in 19118. it had 100,000 medical vacancies, and after brexit, it lost a lot of staff. people went... part of the idiocy of brexit was to get rid of people we really needed. and there's now a waiting list of 6 million people. back in 2010, there was virtually no waiting list. before covid, it had risen to over 4 million, and now it's risen to 6 million. and getting rid of that backlog, trying to catch up with people often in severe pain waiting for hips or knees are more serious things, it's going to... sound cuts out. requiring doctors and nurses. one of the first things the government did ten years ago was to cut back on training places. it takes about ten years to train a doctor. it's very difficult to find any kind of quick fix for this very serious problem. simon, that decision that people have made to cancel events themselves is starting to have a real impact in the hospitality sector. restau ra nts, restaurants, bars, theatres, all those other things. is it possible to measure how much damage is being done right now? and to have a clear sense of how important this time of the year is for this sector as compared to the rest of the year, which has not been great? everyone was putting - their hopes on december. for businesses in hospitality, - it makes up for 30% of their profits in that one month alone. so it couldn't have - happened at a worse time. we know that it doesn't really- matter what the government says at the moment in terms of their policy. - they will say they won't give extra financial support. - this is the current posture, not expected — this is the current posture, not expected to _ this is the current posture, not expected to change. _ we're not going to give you extra support because no one - is shutting you down. we could walk out of here and go to the pub, it'll be quiet. - this is because consumer confidence has evaporated, _ this is because consumer confidence has evaporated, just _ this is because consumer confidence has evaporated, just out _ this is because consumer confidence has evaporated, just out of- this is because consumer confidencel has evaporated, just out of consumer choice _ that means that some businesses are facing i financial ruin or a huge hit... there'll be a paradox there. cos the government helped businesses through a terrible first period and helped keep them going and then, they end up going under at a slightly later period, it almost feels like the money would've been wasted. there is that. i think there's an overarching _ there is that. i think there's an overarching point— there is that. i think there's an overarching point here - there is that. i think there's an overarching point here which i there is that. i think there's an . overarching point here which gets there is that. i think there's an - overarching point here which gets to a political— overarching point here which gets to a political point _ rishi sunak versus borisjohnson. rishi sunak has cutl short in california... not a christmas party! is come back from california _ not a christmas party! is come back from california to _ not a christmas party! is come back from california to sort _ not a christmas party! is come back from california to sort this - not a christmas party! is come back from california to sort this out. - fundamentally, rishi sunak's brand is based on the fact that every time j there's a problem with the economy, you can't reach out and use - the treasury as a backstop to bail you out. _ he wants to get back to fiscal rectitude _ there's a bit of tension _ between number ten, which thinks they can throw money at many projects. - they want to make things better. i think the tension is going to increase _ i was talking to business groups who had been . with the chancellor this afternoon. they want to see a return to vat to emergency levels. _ they want business rates deferred and some more targeted grants. i he said there are existing measures saying without new support, - many will face ruin this christmas. i think he's giving himself enough . room to do nothing on his rationale, but i would be surprised - if he doesn't do something. good. just a quick question to each of you. simon, are you changing your christmas plans? i am hanging on hopefully. one of the things we haven't factored in is we will be - going about our business and some people will not change their habits. i but staff absences will in certainl things like the transport network, l if you're planning to go as i am l next week to see family members, i don't know whether that train will run. i i'm guessing there's a high level ofjeopardy it won't. _ so, i'm crossing my fingers. i'm boosted. i'm hanging in there. i'm hoping for the best. i don't know how i can prepare for the worst at this point. - henry? i'm still keeping to my plan of seeing family on the holiday itself, but being more careful about whom i'm seeing in the things i'm doing before that so that it doesn't jeopardise that plan. unfortunately, for me, family members are coming in from the us and australia, and that's scary because you never know when travel restrictions will suddenly be imposed again on either side. whether they can get back in here or go back to their own countries. so so fingers crossed. a relative may be for a few _ so fingers crossed. a relative may be for a few months, _ so fingers crossed. a relative may be for a few months, not - so fingers crossed. a relative may be for a few months, notjust - so fingers crossed. a relative may be for a few months, notjust for. be for a few months, notjust for christmas! polly? sadly, my french daughter—in—law, her lovely mother was coming over, and now she can't. so that's very sad. so she won't be joining us and shall be all on her own. so, yes, plans have changed. things may well change again. it's quite likely that if the omicron gallops ahead at the rate at is, we will be suddenly told not to be meeting. i kept my tent up in the garden, where we were allowed to entertain people out of doors, so we might end “p people out of doors, so we might end up with christmas in the tent again! i hope a bottle of something fizzy! simon, let's move on. we're already talking about the economy. inflation up to slightly over 5% in the bank of england cutting interest rates... raising them. sorry. i'v e i've been listening to erdogan in turkey! inflation is going up. long after people - were expecting them. i remember in 2009 when interest rates were cut to record lows, - and we thought in a few months, in a couple - of years, back to normal. here we are 12 years later, and they were at 0.0%. i still incredibly low, - and i think a lot of people thought that, blimey, if 5.1% isn't enough i for the teeniest little| increase up from 0.1, then what is? the bank of england were expecting to do it last month. _ they held off and then the omicron virus, a lot of people thought - they would hold up again. i think they have got to be seen to be in the price stability- game as the ft put it, - which is kind of their mainjob. what i would say... what are they therefore otherwise? other people would say, _ what is this really going to change? also, when it comes to inflation, this is a global phenomenon. - you've got supply chains. will raising interest rates right now have _ will raising interest rates right now have any— will raising interest rates right now have any impact - will raising interest rates right now have any impact on - will raising interest rates right. now have any impact on inflation when _ now have any impact on inflation when you — now have any impact on inflation when you have _ now have any impact on inflation when you have structural- now have any impact on inflation when you have structural forcesl now have any impact on inflation. when you have structural forces at work? _ when you have structural forces at work? i_ when you have structural forces at work? idont— when you have structural forces at work? idon't think— when you have structural forces at work? i don't think so, _ when you have structural forces at work? i don't think so, i— when you have structural forces at work? idon't think so, i think- when you have structural forces at work? i don't think so, i think it'si work? i don't think so, i think it's a work? idon't think so, i think it's a credibility— work? i don't think so, i think it's a credibility building _ work? i don't think so, i think it's a credibility building exercise. - a credibility building exercise. tatk— a credibility building exercise. talk about— a credibility building exercise. talk about credibility - a credibility building exercise. | talk about credibility building, to's interesting experiment with economics going on right now, you can beat on bbc online about that. —— turkey's interesting experiment. jerome powell has only stopped describing inflation as a problem, seems to be acknowledging... the worrying thing is if inflation gets into the system and we can't eliminate it because of limits in terms of the benefits these days, of interest making a difference, the kind of tools are very limited for central banks. well, there are some things that for example the biden administration can do in the us, where inflation is even worse than here. last month, it nearly hit 7% and it was the highest rise in about 40 years. but the problem with the tools they have at their disposal is they are often jackhammers that create a cure that i know some people are saying this inflationary period might peak around march and april, and you can maybe let it ride through, but the danger for politicians is that come election time, the electorate want to be so forgiving, especially for a democratic president. those with memories with the carter administration, his presence was limited to one term largely because of inflation and rising gas prices. absolutely totemic. does it matter what the nasdaq and dowjones _ does it matter what the nasdaq and dow jones are does it matter what the nasdaq and dowjones are doing? if it's costing you more to put gas into your car, that will really impact your vote. no wonder he's been cautious in letting some of the reserves out. my thanks to simonjack, polly toynbee and henry chu. if you are stuck at home for christmas, stay with dateline. we will look back at the year that has just gone. we will look back at the year that hasjust gone. goodbye. hello. the weather isn't changing in a hurry at the moment. it is very settled out there. mostly dry, because we have got a big area of high pressure in charge, but that is bringing us not only a largely dry weekend, but also quite a cloudy one, too. i think as we are going to be turning a little bit colder than it has been recently, we are likely to see some mist, fog and some frost as well. here is the high pressure that is driving our weather, draped right across the uk, but trapped underneath that descending air in the high pressure is a lot of low cloud, mist and murk, so quite grey out there. some areas of sunshine, particularly across the higher ground of scotland, north west england, perhaps western fringes of england and wales and northern ireland as well, but for central and eastern areas, you can see that the cloud will be sticking around here through the day. thick enough for the odd spot of drizzle and certainly some lingering fog, especially for the likes of the vale of york, down towards east anglia as well. the central belt also seeing a bit of lingering fog, too. top temperatures somewhere between about three in aberdeen, into perhaps ten in london today. now, through this evening and overnight, then, things again not changing very much. we have still got largely dry conditions, mist and fog reforming for many of us, i think, through the course of tonight. under the clear skies of scotland in the north of england, it is here that temperatures will fall lowest through the day, so a touch of frost, but further south, i think, reasonably mild under that blanket of cloud. so, a bit of a murky start to sunday for many of us. if you have not got the low cloud, you have probably got mist and the fog patches around first thing. the best of the sunshine similar to today, tomorrow it will be across scotland, northern england, northern ireland and just the western parts of england and wales as well. so, the higher ground breaking up above that low cloud and mist and murk, but central and eastern areas, murky and grey once again, temperatures somewhere between about 5—10 on sunday. heading into monday, then, things are not changing very much. a bit of deja vu here. it is dry, it is settled, fairly cloudy, little bit breezy through the english channel, similar in fact to the next couple of days as well. top temperatures somewhere between 2—10, so depending on whether you see the fog up through the day, it could be quite chilly all day. looking through this coming week, towards the festive period, high pressure very gradually should be easing away towards the east and at some point we are likely to see weather fronts starting to move in from the west and potentially from the north as well. so, dry, settled, some overnight frost certainly for the next few days, the potential for things to turn perhaps a little bit milder, especially in the south, but more unsettled towards the christmas weekend. bye— bye. this is bbc news — these are the latest headlines in the uk and around the world. the world health organization says the omicron coronavirus variant has now been identified in 89 countries. uk government scientific advisers warn that tougher covid restrictions are needed "very soon" to prevent a big rise in hospital admissions in england. shopping centres and football stadiums are among nearly 3000 venues in england offering booster jabs this weekend. some will open round—the—clock. the uk's top civil servant steps down from running an inquiry into downing street parties because of an event in his own office. the british socialite, ghislaine maxwell, who denies sex trafficking charges in the united states, has told the court she won't be giving evidence.

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