as customers cancel bookings. five children have died and four others are injured after falling from a bouncy castle that was blown into the air in australia. and, in the ashes, england under pressure as australia start well in the second test. hello and welcome if you're watching in the uk or around the world. british tourists are being banned from france as the country tries to slow the spread of omicron. from saturday, only french citizens, british people who live in france — or those visiting family — will be allowed to enter if they're coming from the uk. they will have to provide a negative covid test which is less than 2a hours old. it comes as the uk prime minister and england's chief medical officer warn people to think carefully before going to pubs and restaurants this christmas. the warnings come as the uk recorded more than 78,000 new infections yesterday — the highest figure since the start of the pandemic. the hospitality and entertainment industries are calling on the treasury for fresh financial support, with many businesses saying the advice is extremely worrying because they rely on revenue from the festive period to cover quieter spells in the new year. many schools across the uk have said they are prepared to switch to online learning if they have to next term, as more children stay at home because of covid. we'll have more on those stories throughout the next hour and we'll be hearing from england's chief medical officer professor chris whitty — who will be giving evidence to mps in the next half an hour. but, first, on those new measures introduced by france. here's hugh schofield, our paris correspondent, on what the new restrictions for travellers mean. there are going to be much tighter restrictions from saturday, first thing saturday, midnight friday into saturday and they cover two things. one, restrictions on who can come into france and there is a long list, which we have seen before, of what constitutes an essential travel and nonessential travel. basically, if you are going just for fun, to see the sights, you can't, and not for work either, unless it is very compelling and if you are a french national, you can come, if you are resident in france, you can come but you will have to prove all of this with the authorities, you have to register on a website before you come over. so that is one side. the other side is then that the testing is being ramped up. you will have to have a test done within 2a hours, or less than 2a hours before you come. that can be a lateral flow test or a pcr test. and, then, when you come, you will have to self isolate at an address that you give to the authorities on this but you can test yourself after 48 hours and, if you are negative, you are free to move about, otherwise you will have to stay isolating for seven days. and it looks like the french are going to be quite strict about enforcing that quarantine because, in the past, they have often said it is a sort of voluntary quarantine, implying they won't really check up on it but it looks like they will check up on this one so in a way a mirror on what is happening in britain, if you're going from britain to france, it is quite similar, you have to isolate for 48 hours and if you test negative, you can move so a big ramping up of the restrictions. our paris correspondent with the latest on those restrictions. let's talk about the situation here in the uk with iain watson. we were hearing slightly subtly different messages yesterday from the prime minister and from england �*s chief medical professor chris whitty. we and from england 's chief medical professor chris whitty.— and from england 's chief medical professor chris whitty. we were, you said subtle and _ professor chris whitty. we were, you said subtle and i _ professor chris whitty. we were, you said subtle and i think _ professor chris whitty. we were, you said subtle and i think it _ professor chris whitty. we were, you said subtle and i think it was - said subtle and i think it was stark, to be honest, in terms of tone. the prime minister was talking about the national with boosters, chris whitty was saying don't mix unless you have to before christmas, talking about people having to prioritise who they socialise with. i guess it is not a matter of official government guidance, certainly no official restrictions but it is making people think, if you want to see your family for example, over christmas, do you socialise with your friends first or does it put you at risk of catching the virus that is rampaging through the virus that is rampaging through the country, doubling every couple of days. we have already had a record number of covid cases, he talked about one pandemic above the other, deltas still in circulation, omicron over and above that, so the message was pretty bleak from chris whitty, he said everything he knew about omicron was bad. the prime minister suggesting caution but not suggesting people had to cancel all their plans, so it was the tale of two press conferences last night. the thing is now people are having to deal with the real—life consequences, so i ran into an empty on their way into westminster this morning he was telling me one company in his constituency have cancelled, or had had 70% of its bookings cancelled in the run—up to christmas, businesses are crying out for support. the uk hospitality industry, the group representing them suggesting takings could be down by as much as 40% and in about half an hour, labour are going to try to, if you like, reflect that mood in the commons, they have asked for an urgent question, a device to get a government minister to answer on any given topic and they are talking about increasing business support. that said, the treasury are saying, look, there is support in place for business. for example, in hospitality and tourism, they play a lower —— they pay a lower rate of vat until next spring, some are eligible for business rates relief as well, so they are suggesting they are not abandoning the field and there are some things in place at there are some things in place at the moment but, nonetheless, there are going to be demands to ratchet that up and labour of course hoping to start positioning themselves as a party of business and hoping to exploit the fact that the chancellor is out of the country, in california, perhaps a legitimate thing for him to do but if the advice is coming in on people to be cautious up to christmas, if it has a knock—on effect on hospitality in particular, labourare a knock—on effect on hospitality in particular, labour are going to be running a campaign i think on the next few days calling on the chancellor to come home and come up with more cash. find chancellor to come home and come up with more cash-— with more cash. and if omicron surues, with more cash. and if omicron surges. as _ with more cash. and if omicron surges, as everyone _ with more cash. and if omicron surges, as everyone is - with more cash. and if omicron i surges, as everyone is predicting with more cash. and if omicron - surges, as everyone is predicting it is going to do, there is likely to be more pressure on the prime ministerfor more be more pressure on the prime minister for more restrictions and, yet, his party, you know, the conservative party showed with that rebellion in the commons, 100 mps voting against covid passes that they don't want restrictions. == they don't want restrictions. -- read more _ they don't want restrictions. » read more restrictions. that's right, it was a big and broad rebellion and people feel not only has the prime minister lost some authority, but also he is reluctant to bring in any other restrictions and risk another rebellion and another spectacle of a divided party. he has said he will recall parliament if more restrictions are needed and certainly circulating in whitehall, there are some pretty scary projections about the number of people who could end up in hospital early injanuary and of people who could end up in hospital early in january and chris whitty was talking about, as infections continue to tumble, perhaps the real pressure is coming just after christmas so the question of a recall can't be entirely ruled out but there are other weapons and the government's armoury and boris johnson wouldn't even go there yesterday, but he could, for example, do what nicola sturgeon, first minister of scotland has done, and issue guidance about how salt for example, which is a bit stronger thanjust advice —— my for example, which is a bit stronger than just advice —— my guidance about household mixing. idin than just advice -- my guidance about household mixing. iain watson, our olitical about household mixing. iain watson, our political correspondent. _ andrew hayward is a professor of infectious disease epidemiology and inclusion health research at university college london. he explained what yesterday's record—breaking case numbers could mean for people over the next few weeks. if you think about 75,000 positive tests yesterday, that's probably... only about half, or maybe even fewer people who do have covid ever get tested, so maybe that's about 150,000 people or more with the infection and we know that that's doubling approximately every two days, so, in two days' time, it would be 150,000. four days, 300,000. 600,000. 1.2 million, if it carries on doubling at that same rate, so you can see from that maths that this is an extraordinary number of cases on our way, because the strain is so highly transmissible and it escapes, certainly, immunity related to just the two doses, much better with three doses, so that's going to lead to a huge wave of infection and the way i think of it is like, really, if you think about getting a year's worth of rain over a month, then you are going to get flooding and potentially severe flooding, no matter how much you've shored up your defences and that's the concern here, that that huge wave is going to cause lots of people to be off work, having to isolate, which is going to cause disruption and it's also going to cause, it's going to spill over into people going into hospital. now, the rate at which it spills over is uncertain because we don't know exactly how severe it is yet, but we've no particular reason to think it's less severe than previous strains. we know that covid is always going to be less severe if you've been immunised, but it may be that, rather than the strain itself, that's making a lot of cases look less severe. in a moment, we are going to be speaking to professor tim spector from king's college london, who helped found the zoe covid app which helps gather research on the spread of the virus as well as its symptoms, but first let's take a quick look at the latest data from zoe. the zoe covid data team estimated there are currently 87,131 new symptomatic cases of covid in the uk. meanwhile, in the official government data, a further 78,610 new cases were confirmed in the latest data. zoe also suggests that an average of one in 57 people in the uk currently have symptomatic covid. and we can speak to professor tim spector now. well, what is your view and your insight on what omicron in particular is doing at the moment. well, to look at what omicron is doing, it is best to look regionally and the people reporting on the zoe app and the people reporting on the zoe app in london and the south—east have been giving us fascinating information and if anyone out there hasn't downloaded the app, please do so now and help us look, like we did in the first wave, to see what is going on but we now know the majority of cases in london are now omicron and so, by looking at the symptoms of people in london compared to other regions, we get an idea of what is happening and what we are seeing is not only the rates going up very fast and people getting infected generally two days after a contact, rather than, previously with delta, four or five days, we are seeing predominately cold like symptoms in people who have been vaccinated or triple vaccinated. so the majority of people who are testing positive only have cold like symptoms, so headaches, sore throats, runny nose, sneezing and fatigue and a minority now have the old classic symptoms. so most people we are seeing are getting cold like symptoms which can be mild or can actually be quite severe but no one has actually had it so far reporting to us lasting more than about five days, although we are not seeing older people, we are not seeing people who haven't been by vaccinated, because they are the minority of people reporting on our app. the minority of people reporting on ourapp. but the minority of people reporting on our app. but it is a really infectious blood, we ask people to sendin infectious blood, we ask people to send in reports of big outbreaks or parties they have been too and we've got several of these where people attended parties of 20 or 30 people, all having done lateral flow tests before hand and three quarters of them have ended up with proven omicron afterwards, so it is really hard to control this. so i think what we need to have is a new way of dealing with this, the time scale at which it happens, we don't have much warning, test and trace doesn't work, we knew —— do need to get the word out about symptoms, avoiding anyone who has cold like symptoms, which is highly likely to be omicron now depending on where you live and where you are and make sure the lateral flow test is really close to when you are meeting people, because you may well have caught it in the interim and that is what is causing these problems. find interim and that is what is causing these problems.— interim and that is what is causing these problems. and it sounds like our data these problems. and it sounds like your data really — these problems. and it sounds like your data really bears _ these problems. and it sounds like your data really bears out - these problems. and it sounds like your data really bears out what - these problems. and it sounds like your data really bears out what we | your data really bears out what we have heard from south africa, which is it is incredibly transmissible but the symptoms tend to be milder. we were hearing from chris whitty yesterday, yes, the symptoms are mild but don't be complacent because there are going to be so many more cases that that will still mean lots of hospitalisations.— of hospitalisations. yes, it means aood of hospitalisations. yes, it means good news _ of hospitalisations. yes, it means good news for _ of hospitalisations. yes, it means good news for the _ of hospitalisations. yes, it means good news for the individual - of hospitalisations. yes, it means good news for the individual and l of hospitalisations. yes, it means i good news for the individual and bad news for the country and that is, in a way, you know, it is too early to know the exact percentage of people that are going to go to hospital potentially have a long covert as well, which we mustn't forget, we don't talk about that much —— long covid, but these are all problems of having a widespread infection, it is notjust like having a widespread infection, it is not just like a having a widespread infection, it is notjust like a cold because that small proportion will get severe illness but so far, of the reports we have been getting, we haven't seen any hospitalisations based on a few thousand of our early reporters, but we will know much more about this next week.— but we will know much more about this next week. there has been a lot of talk throughout _ this next week. there has been a lot of talk throughout this _ this next week. there has been a lot of talk throughout this pandemic - of talk throughout this pandemic that, as it goes on, coronavirus becomes milder, we learn to live with it, it becomes more like a cold. and, as it mutates. do you think this omicron is perhaps part of that pattern, part of that process? i of that pattern, part of that process?— of that pattern, part of that rocess? ~ , , , of that pattern, part of that rocess? ~ , ., , , ., process? i think it probably is and i think we have _ process? i think it probably is and i think we have seen _ process? i think it probably is and i think we have seen a _ process? i think it probably is and i think we have seen a very - process? i think it probably is and i think we have seen a very slow l i think we have seen a very slow shift, because it was looking like delta was behaving a bit like this anyway, so we are not seeing dramatic shifts from delta but i don't think many people had an app like ours that was recording in such detail the symptoms of most people who were vaccinated, so given that now the majority of the population are vaccinated, this milder reaction to it is quite logical, so i think we are all hoping that itjust continues to get milder and we just need to buy ourselves time until it gets into an equilibrium and, you know, relatively few people are badly affected by it.— badly affected by it. tim, it is alwa s badly affected by it. tim, it is always good _ badly affected by it. tim, it is always good to _ badly affected by it. tim, it is always good to get _ badly affected by it. tim, it is always good to get your - badly affected by it. tim, it is - always good to get your insights, thank you so much for giving us your time. and if you're in the uk, you can access an nhs tracker which is live now and will help you find out how your local services are coping on the bbc website. the tracker will run throughout winter and will show you the latest data on waits for emergency treatment where you live. business groups in the uk are increasing pressure on the government to help firms suffering from the rise in covid cases — which has led to cancelled bookings. the cbi, which represents british businesses, urged ministers to provide support "in lockstep with future restrictions", and uk hospitality has called for business rates to be deferred and vat discounts extended. the government has so far declined to offer further support for business. joining me now is rain newton—smith, chief economist at the cbi. thank you very much indeed for being with us and i suppose the fear for many businesses, whether it is a pub, a restaurant, theatres, there isn't a lockdown but people are just cancelling, so almost the effect is the same? , cancelling, so almost the effect is the same?— cancelling, so almost the effect is the same? , ., , , ., the same? yes, there has been a huge imact the same? yes, there has been a huge im act on the same? yes, there has been a huge impact on businesses _ the same? yes, there has been a huge impact on businesses so _ the same? yes, there has been a huge impact on businesses so far, _ the same? yes, there has been a huge impact on businesses so far, from - impact on businesses so far, from cancelled bookings in restaurants too, of course, the aviation sector, really been hit by some of the restrictions on flying and, then, it is such an important time for gymnasiums and leisure centres, when they are looking for people to renew their annual memberships and so many people are working from home now, so there is a real impact on businesses at the moment and i think what we are calling on the government to do is to act now, to get some of the money they have already set aside to support businesses through the crisis, really get that money at the door but also be clear now that, if these restrictions continue beyond january, that they will stand ready to support cash flow in some of the really affected businesses and sectors. i really affected businesses and sectors. , , ., really affected businesses and sectors. , ., , sectors. i suppose that is the oint, sectors. i suppose that is the point. which _ sectors. i suppose that is the point, which are _ sectors. i suppose that is the point, which are the - sectors. i suppose that is the j point, which are the business sectors? because it is going to be patchy, isn't it? it is not like a lockdown where all businesses are affected in exactly the same way. that's right and i think one of the ways they can do that is to really have that open communication with businesses across sectors and i think we do have to recognise, and we are in a really different space from where we have been previously with this crisis, we are not looking at the same widespread support that we saw in the past that had been so important in keeping people injobs and keeping businesses open. what businesses are saying is let's use all of the tools at our disposal, the testing, the boosters, to keep things as open as possible. that is first and foremost, they want to be able to trade their way through the latest crisis we are facing. but, secondly, be ready to support cash flow in some of the really hard hit sectors. some of the big loan schemes, companies have to start paying those back in march, but we know, in aviation, in hospitality, some of these sectors are going to be reeling still from this crisis. we will emerge from it but they need to have the safety valve that they don't have to repay some of those loans right away and look to extend some of the business rates relief, just to provide more breathing space but those businesses that are really hard—hit from what we are seeing now and what we might see in the coming weeks. it and what we might see in the coming weeks. , ., , ., ., weeks. it must have been a real sucker punch, _ weeks. it must have been a real sucker punch, omicron, - weeks. it must have been a real sucker punch, omicron, for - weeks. it must have been a real. sucker punch, omicron, for many businesses, who thought perhaps they were starting to see the back of the pandemic, starting to see a recovery, starting to see their businesses return to something like normality and, then, it has all come crashing down again.— crashing down again. yes, it has been sort _ crashing down again. yes, it has been sort of _ crashing down again. yes, it has been sort of heartbreaking - crashing down again. yes, it has been sort of heartbreaking for. crashing down again. yes, it has - been sort of heartbreaking for some businesses and, you know, you see it from, you know, iwas businesses and, you know, you see it from, you know, i was in a shop yesterday and the people serving you are so desperate to be out there serving customers and spreading good cheerin serving customers and spreading good cheer in the christmas period but, understandably, they are just not seeing the footfall at the moment and i was speaking to a tour operator who said last summer was really difficult, they were able to start bringing in some revenue but there were still quite a lot of restrictions, so they were really looking forward to this christmas period, the all—important january moment where people look ahead to the summer and start booking their summer holidays and so i think it is really important as well, and this builds on what tim specter was saying, we need to learn to live with this virus and we need to live with this virus and we need to understand that the economy will be able to reopen and businesses will recover but we need to make sure that we have to support to build that bridge to the other side and that we give individuals the confidence that we are facing a period where we need to be more cautious, but it is important we have the businesses there to support us as we emerge from this latest wave and we learn to live with the virus being around us and use the tools from boosters and testing to really make it practical for us to do that. . ., really make it practical for us to do that. ., ,, , ., really make it practical for us to do that. . ~' , ., , really make it practical for us to do that. ., ,, i. , . do that. thank you very much indeed for talkin: do that. thank you very much indeed for talking to — us us and we are just getting some breaking news, actually, from formula one, which is that mercedes will not appeal against the outcome of last sunday's season—ending abu dhabi grand prix. max verstappen, for red bull, is formula one world champion officially, there is no doubt about it because mercedes are not appealing against what happened. 24—year—old max verstappen of course took the title last weekend after overtaking the mercedes seven times world champion lewis hamilton, now sir lewis hamilton, on the last laugh of the race up to the safety car period. the dutch driver max verstappen is going to collect his trophy in paris on thursday, so mercedes announcing that they are withdrawing their appeal against a max verstappen's title. five children have died and five others are injured after falling from a bouncy castle that was blown more than 30 feet into the air in australia. police said two girls and two boys died at the scene and another died in hospital later, with five others in a critical condition following the incident, which took place during an end—of—year party in devonport, in tasmania. the australian prime minister, scott morrison, said it was "heartbreaking". the events that have occurred today in devonport, in tasmania, arejust shattering. they are just unthinkably heartbreaking and young children, on a fun day out together with theirfamilies, and it children, on a fun day out together with their families, and it turns to such horrific tragedy, at this time of year. itjust breaks your heart. scott morrison, the australian prime minister. our correspondent shaima khalil is in sydney. she has more on the investigation that will now follow. really, questions are being asked, of course, about how this happened, what was anchoring that bouncy castle to the ground, why it was lifted as high it has? also the weather conditions of the day, we haven't heard that they were extraordinary conditions or dangerous conditions, they were fine until that gust of wind lifted the bouncy castle in the air. we also heard from the tasmanian authorities, of course, who say, with that happening, the focus is going to be on the families of course of those children, on the school community and on the first responders who were first on the scene and had seen this tragedy happen in the primary school. president biden has been visiting kentucky to see the damage caused by a series of deadly tornadoes. 74—people were killed and more than 120 people are still missing. 74 people were killed and more than 120 people are still missing. some communities hit by the storms will need to be completely rebuilt, as nomia iqbal reports. this is one of the poorest towns in the state. it has been left in apocalyptic ruins. many people are now wondering what's next. officials say 75% of the town has been destroyed. president biden came to see the damage for himself. the scope and scale of this destruction is almost beyond belief. when you look around here, it's just almost beyond belief. these tornadoes devour everything in their path.ed president biden has signed signed an emergency declaration for the state. it will provide funds for the emergency management agency, known as fema, to help with search and rescue, and provide food, water and generators. but many in this town have been relying on strangers for support. sally has managed to find her wedding ring and pictures of her children. she's trying to clear up as much as she can ahead of another storm that's being forecast. we've recovered more, ithink, than we first thought, because at first, it just looked like a big pile of rubble. but as you dig through you are able to find some things, and we have found some things that are very important to us, which makes me happier. when you think everything is gone it's quite heartbreaking. some people say they want more than just their neighbours helping. i went to a shelter earlier, and some volunteers there, who didn't want to speak to me on camera, claimed the government response by fema has been really slow. they also say they hope the president isn't just here for a photo op. the president has also visited the town of mayfield, an hour away. kentucky is a republican state. how he and his democratic administration respond to the disaster will be scrutinised by conservatives, the very people he is trying to reach. nomia iqbal, bbc news, kentucky. tens of thousands of people in the philippines are sheltering from super—typhoon rai, which has begun battering the southern island of siargo. winds of more than 165kph are expected, along with heavy rain. 90,000 people have headed for emergency shelters, and schools in the storm's expected path have been closed. the red cross says it's threatening to hit coastal communities like "a freight train". let's return now to omicron and the concern caused by the rise in cases. in response, england's chief medical officer professor chris whitty has urged people to be cautious when socialising. he's due to answer questions from mps shortly. our health correspondent nick triggle is here. we heard from chris whitty yesterday, england's chief medical officer, a warning to people over the holiday period to be very careful and to prioritise who they socialise with.— careful and to prioritise who they socialise with. indeed, that was in resonse socialise with. indeed, that was in response to _ socialise with. indeed, that was in response to the _ socialise with. indeed, that was in response to the rising _ socialise with. indeed, that was in response to the rising number- socialise with. indeed, that was in response to the rising number of. response to the rising number of cases, nearly 79,000 infections confirmed yesterday, that is the highest since the pandemic began, although i must say we didn't have, really, any testing in place during that first wave so it is unclear how high cases got then. but the message was clear, because we are facing, he was clear, because we are facing, he was quite honest, we are going to see the numbers rise and rise in the coming days and, of course, people who do come into contact and test positive, they will then have to isolate over the christmas period if they test positive for no one so the message was think about the social contacts you have an prioritise those that are important. and i think we are going to hear a lot of that messaging we have heard in scotland, nicola sturgeon saying limit your contacts to three households and it is all aboutjust trying to reduce some of the spread of omicron so people can enjoy christmas and also relieve some of the pressure on the nhs that this coming wave is bound to bring. taste coming wave is bound to bring. we will hear more about the coming way from chris whitty but we were just talking about this to professor tim spector from talking about this to professor tim spectorfrom king's talking about this to professor tim spector from king's college, talking about this to professor tim spectorfrom king's college, who runs the zoe app, and he was saying the symptoms do seem generally, as south africa showed, relatively mild. but chris whitty�*s point yesterday in downing street was, yes, symptoms are mild but there is going to be such a huge wave that it is still going to mean a lot of hospitalisations.— is still going to mean a lot of hospitalisations. indeed, there is still a lot of— hospitalisations. indeed, there is still a lot of uncertainty _ hospitalisations. indeed, there is still a lot of uncertainty over - still a lot of uncertainty over whether it is causing milder illness. there is a certain degree of logic in this, because infections, re—infections and infections, re—infections and infections after vaccination, are likely to be milder, but i think chris whitty plus my point yesterday was even if you have a virus, the severity of which is halved, as soon as you get more than a doubling of cases, then the pressure increases. let's go to the health and social care committee, jeremy hunt is the chair, the former health secretary and he will be hearing from chris whitty. thank you very much forjoining thank you very much for 'oinin- us thank you very much forjoining us at a busy period. let's start ri-ht at a busy period. let's start right away with chris whitty. i want to give you a chance to elaborate on what you said yesterday. you said we should prioritise social events that matter and de—prioritise more trivial ones. in practical terms, could you explain what you meant when it comes to people thinking about their plans for christmas? i about their plans for christmas? i hope what i said was reasonably clear_ hope what i said was reasonably clear but — hope what i said was reasonably clear but i— hope what i said was reasonably clear but i will phrase it differently and see if that helps. i think_ differently and see if that helps. i think everybody can see this is moving — think everybody can see this is moving very fast and is highly transmissible and the rates are going _ transmissible and the rates are going to — transmissible and the rates are going to continue to go up. it is a period _ going to continue to go up. it is a period of— going to continue to go up. it is a period of the year when lots of people — period of the year when lots of people have got things that really matter_ people have got things that really matter to them family —wise and other— matter to them family —wise and other parts— matter to them family —wise and other parts of their life, my point was, _ other parts of their life, my point was, and — other parts of their life, my point was, and i— other parts of their life, my point was, and i hope i can reiterate this, _ was, and i hope i can reiterate this, people want to protect the time _ this, people want to protect the time that— this, people want to protect the time that is most important to them and that— time that is most important to them and that does therefore mean in practice — and that does therefore mean in practice it — and that does therefore mean in practice it is sensible for people to cut _ practice it is sensible for people to cut down on work or other interactions with people, potentially social ones that are less important to them, they reduce their chances of catching covid—19 and passing it on. iwould not their chances of catching covid—19 and passing it on. i would not want to say— and passing it on. i would not want to say to _ and passing it on. i would not want to say to people to do a particular thing. _ to say to people to do a particular thing. they— to say to people to do a particular thing, they should do this or that, it is about — thing, they should do this or that, it is about saying that this is a period — it is about saying that this is a period to _ it is about saying that this is a period to prioritise. that was also the message from the prime minister. to be _ the message from the prime minister. to be more _ the message from the prime minister. to be more specific, the doctor yesterday advised people not to go to football matches if it was to watch football. do you agree with that? ,, ., , watch football. do you agree with that? ,, .,, ., watch football. do you agree with that? ,, ., that? she was saying that if you went to a stadium _ that? she was saying that if you went to a stadium it _ that? she was saying that if you went to a stadium it is - that? she was saying that if you went to a stadium it is an - went to a stadium it is an opportunity to have a booster. that is a message we want to get out to people. — is a message we want to get out to people. obviously, we want to get back to _ people. obviously, we want to get back to a — people. obviously, we want to get back to a situation where we are back— back to a situation where we are back on— back to a situation where we are back on a — back to a situation where we are back on a more normal track, the route _ back on a more normal track, the route life — back on a more normal track, the route life through the booster programme. she was saying we are opening _ programme. she was saying we are opening up— programme. she was saying we are opening up stadiums over this weekend _ opening up stadiums over this weekend for booster, that there is a positive _ weekend for booster, that there is a positive message from someone heavily— positive message from someone heavily embedded in the booster programme, if that means going to a stadium. _ programme, if that means going to a stadium, that should be the priority _ stadium, that should be the riori . ., ., ., ., , priority. you are not advising --eole priority. you are not advising people not — priority. you are not advising people not to _ priority. you are not advising people not to go _ priority. you are not advising people not to go to - priority. you are not advising people not to go to football. people not to go to football matches? i people not to go to football matches?— people not to go to football matches? ., ., , , ., matches? i am advising people to rioritise, matches? i am advising people to prioritise. if— matches? i am advising people to prioritise, if football _ matches? i am advising people to prioritise, if football is _ matches? i am advising people to prioritise, if football is the - matches? i am advising people to prioritise, if football is the most l prioritise, if football is the most important — prioritise, if football is the most important thing, that is a priority for them. — important thing, that is a priority for them, that is the point i was meeting — for them, that is the point i was meeting. prioritise what matters to you, meeting. prioritise what matters to you. if— meeting. prioritise what matters to you. if you — meeting. prioritise what matters to you, if you wish to do those things, and wish _ you, if you wish to do those things, and wish to— you, if you wish to do those things, and wish to do so and not end up self isolating or not well at a time when _ self isolating or not well at a time when you — self isolating or not well at a time when you don't want to be, you would want to— when you don't want to be, you would want to do— when you don't want to be, you would want to do fewer other things. if you want to do fewer other things. you are want to do fewer other things. if you are planning in the next week to go to four orfive you are planning in the next week to go to four or five social functions, your advice would be try not to go to the two or three that matter this to the two or three that matter this to you. to the two or three that matter this to ou. ., , , ~ ., to you. that depends... anyone who has something _ to you. that depends... anyone who has something that _ to you. that depends... anyone who has something that really _ to you. that depends... anyone who has something that really matters i to you. that depends... anyone who j has something that really matters to them. _ has something that really matters to them, concentrate on that thing and build out _ them, concentrate on that thing and build out from there rather than 'ust build out from there rather than just accepting every invitation i'm going _ just accepting every invitation i'm going to — just accepting every invitation i'm going to every bit of work in person _ going to every bit of work in person. this applies to work situations too. our team are way down _ situations too. our team are way down in — situations too. our team are way down in terms of the numbers coming in, down in terms of the numbers coming in. that— down in terms of the numbers coming in. that is— down in terms of the numbers coming in, that is quite right. most other teams _ in, that is quite right. most other teams that— in, that is quite right. most other teams that i know and that is very sensible — teams that i know and that is very sensible. work from home if you tan is government guidance and remain so. is government guidance and remain so to _ is government guidance and remain so. ., , is government guidance and remain so. , �*, is government guidance and remain so. .,, , �*, . is government guidance and remain so. .,, , �*, so. to be morse's sapphic on something — so. to be morse's sapphic on something that _ so. to be morse's sapphic on something that is _ so. to be morse's sapphic on something that is going - so. to be morse's sapphic on | something that is going along so. to be morse's sapphic on . something that is going along at so. to be morse's sapphic on - something that is going along at the moment... —— something that is happening a lot at the moment, christmas parties, if it is not essential as compared to spending time with yourfamily, essential as compared to spending time with your family, for example, then that would be a good thing not to go to. i’m then that would be a good thing not to to to. �* , ., then that would be a good thing not to aoto. �* , ., ., ., ., to go to. i'm trying to avoid and ou are to go to. i'm trying to avoid and you are trying — to go to. i'm trying to avoid and you are trying to _ to go to. i'm trying to avoid and you are trying to meet - to go to. i'm trying to avoid and you are trying to meet me, - to go to. i'm trying to avoid and you are trying to meet me, i . to go to. i'm trying to avoid and| you are trying to meet me, i am trying — you are trying to meet me, i am trying to— you are trying to meet me, i am trying to avoid making people's choices— trying to avoid making people's choices for them but i would go on to say— choices for them but i would go on to say clearly that people need to prioritise — to say clearly that people need to prioritise what matters to them and cut down _ prioritise what matters to them and cut down on— prioritise what matters to them and cut down on the things that don't. for some — cut down on the things that don't. for some person it may be important to go— for some person it may be important to go to _ for some person it may be important to go to the — for some person it may be important to go to the office party, it is for people _ to go to the office party, it is for people to — to go to the office party, it is for people to make those choices. that is very clear — people to make those choices. that is very clear and _ people to make those choices. that is very clear and helpful. thank you. can i move on to more questions about omicron itself and what we do know and what we don't know. one of the things you talked about that we do not yet really have hard data on is the extent to which vaccines will stop you getting seriously ill. so far, as i understand it, the studies seem to show quite a lot of vaccine is given after two doses but much less after a third dose. can i ask if those figures relate to antibody deterioration and t cell deterioration and t cell deterioration or only antibodies? there are two lines of evidence, the lab site _ there are two lines of evidence, the lab site and — there are two lines of evidence, the lab site and the clinical. for all of these. — lab site and the clinical. for all of these. i_ lab site and the clinical. for all of these, i know you know this, i am going _ of these, i know you know this, i am going out— of these, i know you know this, i am going out for— of these, i know you know this, i am going out for people watching, there are three _ going out for people watching, there are three things we are interested in, are three things we are interested in. the _ are three things we are interested in, the ability of the vaccine to stop— in, the ability of the vaccine to stop people getting infected, the ability— stop people getting infected, the ability to stop people getting severe — ability to stop people getting severe disease and ending up in hospital— severe disease and ending up in hospital and the ability to stop people — hospital and the ability to stop people dying. in general, they get more _ people dying. in general, they get more effective as you go up the line _ more effective as you go up the line at— more effective as you go up the line. at the moment on the lab site, a lot of— line. at the moment on the lab site, a lot of different labs are looking at the _ a lot of different labs are looking at the antibody data, half of the immune — at the antibody data, half of the immune system, that suggests antibody— immune system, that suggests antibody response is much less effective — antibody response is much less effective against this variant than delta _ effective against this variant than delta and — effective against this variant than delta and the original wuhan strain. that does— delta and the original wuhan strain. that does not necessarily... is likely— that does not necessarily... is likely to — that does not necessarily... is likely to translate into reduced ability— likely to translate into reduced ability to— likely to translate into reduced ability to reduce infection and that is what _ ability to reduce infection and that is what we — ability to reduce infection and that is what we are seeing. the clinical studies _ is what we are seeing. the clinical studies are — is what we are seeing. the clinical studies are showing that lots of people — studies are showing that lots of people are getting reinfected with omicron _ people are getting reinfected with omicron who previously had been vaccinated — omicron who previously had been vaccinated or had a combination of vaccines— vaccinated or had a combination of vaccines and natural infection. it definitely— vaccines and natural infection. it definitely is likely to bypass some of the _ definitely is likely to bypass some of the ability to reduce infection. what _ of the ability to reduce infection. what we — of the ability to reduce infection. what we do not have is very good t cell studies — what we do not have is very good t cell studies in the same way as they take longer— cell studies in the same way as they take longer to do from the lab site, we do _ take longer to do from the lab site, we do not _ take longer to do from the lab site, we do not have clinical studies, either— we do not have clinical studies, either from south africa or the uk or anywhere else that say with confidence what the level of protection of two doses, one dose, to doses _ protection of two doses, one dose, to doses and a booster dose our own hospitalisation and death. i think most _ hospitalisation and death. i think most people think on the positive side. _ most people think on the positive side. we — most people think on the positive side, we also think there will be some _ side, we also think there will be some preserved immunity, particularly on the non—antibody site. _ particularly on the non—antibody site. t_ particularly on the non—antibody site. t cell— particularly on the non—antibody site, t cell and other site, therefore _ site, t cell and other site, therefore it is likely that someone who has— therefore it is likely that someone who has had one or two vaccines already— who has had one or two vaccines already will _ who has had one or two vaccines already will have some protection and with— already will have some protection and with a — already will have some protection and with a booster considerably more protection _ and with a booster considerably more protection against hospitalisation and death, even though the protection against infection is less good _ protection against infection is less good. finally, on the booster, it looks— good. finally, on the booster, it looks as— good. finally, on the booster, it looks as though they restore some of the ability— looks as though they restore some of the ability to actually reduce infection, probably quite a lot of it actually, at least for a period of time. — it actually, at least for a period of time, and so there are multiple reasons— of time, and so there are multiple reasons to — of time, and so there are multiple reasons to get the booster. it will reduce _ reasons to get the booster. it will reduce a — reasons to get the booster. it will reduce a risk of severity, it will reduce — reduce a risk of severity, it will reduce the _ reduce a risk of severity, it will reduce the risk of mortality and almost — reduce the risk of mortality and almost certainly reduce the risk of transmitting and getting symptomatic disease _ transmitting and getting symptomatic disease. we really want to push the point _ disease. we really want to push the point that— disease. we really want to push the point that booster is critical to theirs — point that booster is critical to theirs. ~ ., ., theirs. when will we get good data on hospitalisation _ theirs. when will we get good data on hospitalisation rates _ theirs. when will we get good data on hospitalisation rates and - theirs. when will we get good data on hospitalisation rates and risk i theirs. when will we get good data on hospitalisation rates and risk of| on hospitalisation rates and risk of severe illness and death? fate on hospitalisation rates and risk of severe illness and death?- severe illness and death? we will aet severe illness and death? we will get reasonable _ severe illness and death? we will get reasonable data _ severe illness and death? we will get reasonable data from - severe illness and death? we will get reasonable data from south l get reasonable data from south africa _ get reasonable data from south africa before the uk, but that will be for _ africa before the uk, but that will be for two — africa before the uk, but that will be for two doses because they haven't— be for two doses because they haven't got a booster programme in the way— haven't got a booster programme in the way we — haven't got a booster programme in the way we have yet. they will go first on _ the way we have yet. they will go first on the — the way we have yet. they will go first on the clinical side but there is good _ first on the clinical side but there is good data coming here and i will ask doctor— is good data coming here and i will ask doctor hopkins to talk about that because they say... they are leading _ that because they say... they are leading on— that because they say... they are leading on this. in terms of the booster— leading on this. in terms of the booster that would take longer because — booster that would take longer because as of two weeks ago, almost nobody— because as of two weeks ago, almost nobody had _ because as of two weeks ago, almost nobody had a booster and now we have -ot nobody had a booster and now we have got really _ nobody had a booster and now we have got really good levels in the older population. but we haven't got all the way— population. but we haven't got all the way down to the group which is actually— the way down to the group which is actually being infected by omicron. susan. _ actually being infected by omicron. susan. do — actually being infected by omicron. susan, do you want to add to what i have _ susan, do you want to add to what i have said? — susan, do you want to add to what i have said? we susan, do you want to add to what i have said? ~ ., ., susan, do you want to add to what i have said?— have said? we have a series of studies we _ have said? we have a series of studies we have _ have said? we have a series of studies we have planned - have said? we have a series of studies we have planned and i have said? we have a series of i studies we have planned and the analysis— studies we have planned and the analysis is— studies we have planned and the analysis is ready— studies we have planned and the analysis is ready to _ studies we have planned and the analysis is ready to run. - studies we have planned and the analysis is ready to run. what. studies we have planned and the | analysis is ready to run. what we know— analysis is ready to run. what we know is— analysis is ready to run. what we know is we — analysis is ready to run. what we know is we need _ analysis is ready to run. what we know is we need about _ analysis is ready to run. what we know is we need about 250 - know is we need about 250 individuals— know is we need about 250 individuals in— know is we need about 250 individuals in hospital- know is we need about 250 i individuals in hospital before know is we need about 250 - individuals in hospital before we can make — individuals in hospital before we can make a _ individuals in hospital before we can make a severity _ individuals in hospital before wej can make a severity assessment compared — can make a severity assessment compared to— can make a severity assessment compared to delta. _ can make a severity assessment compared to delta. also- can make a severity assessment compared to delta. also vaccinej compared to delta. also vaccine effectiveness _ compared to delta. also vaccine effectiveness assessment. - compared to delta. also vaccine effectiveness assessment. we l compared to delta. also vaccine - effectiveness assessment. we start running _ effectiveness assessment. we start running that — effectiveness assessment. we start running that assessment _ effectiveness assessment. we start running that assessment when - effectiveness assessment. we start running that assessment when we i running that assessment when we start having — running that assessment when we start having enough _ running that assessment when we start having enough cases- running that assessment when we start having enough cases who - running that assessment when we i start having enough cases who had been _ start having enough cases who had been admitted _ start having enough cases who had been admitted to _ start having enough cases who had been admitted to hospitals - start having enough cases who had been admitted to hospitals and - start having enough cases who had been admitted to hospitals and we| been admitted to hospitals and we run it— been admitted to hospitals and we run it daily— been admitted to hospitals and we run it daily until— been admitted to hospitals and we run it daily until we _ been admitted to hospitals and we run it daily until we have _ been admitted to hospitals and we run it daily until we have enough l run it daily until we have enough parity— run it daily until we have enough parity to — run it daily until we have enough parity to determine _ run it daily until we have enough parity to determine that - run it daily until we have enough parity to determine that the - run it daily until we have enough i parity to determine that the results are effective — parity to determine that the results are effective to _ parity to determine that the results are effective to allow— parity to determine that the results are effective to allow us _ parity to determine that the results are effective to allow us to - are effective to allow us to basically _ are effective to allow us to basically make _ are effective to allow us to i basically make assessments to release — basically make assessments to release. ., . , basically make assessments to release. ., ., , basically make assessments to release. ., . , . ., , release. how many omicron patients do we have — release. how many omicron patients do we have in — release. how many omicron patients do we have in hospital _ release. how many omicron patients do we have in hospital as _ release. how many omicron patients do we have in hospital as of- release. how many omicron patients do we have in hospital as of today i do we have in hospital as of today or yesterday? 15. do we have in hospital as of today or yesterday?— do we have in hospital as of today or yesterday? 15, however, we are constantly — or yesterday? 15, however, we are constantly working _ or yesterday? 15, however, we are constantly working on _ or yesterday? 15, however, we are constantly working on data - or yesterday? 15, however, we are constantly working on data linkage to improve — constantly working on data linkage to improve that. _ constantly working on data linkage to improve that, and _ constantly working on data linkage to improve that, and we _ constantly working on data linkage to improve that, and we will- constantly working on data linkage i to improve that, and we will release new numbers — to improve that, and we will release new numbers this _ to improve that, and we will release new numbers this afternoon. - to improve that, and we will release new numbers this afternoon. sign . new numbers this afternoon. sign like the _ new numbers this afternoon. sign like the real— new numbers this afternoon. sign like the real number— new numbers this afternoon. sign like the real number will- new numbers this afternoon. sign like the real number will be - new numbers this afternoon. sign like the real number will be much| like the real number will be much bigger— like the real number will be much bigger than— like the real number will be much bigger than that, _ like the real number will be much bigger than that, that _ like the real number will be much bigger than that, that is - like the real number will be much bigger than that, that is the i like the real number will be much. bigger than that, that is the number that are _ bigger than that, that is the number that are proven _ bigger than that, that is the number that are proven. to _ bigger than that, that is the number that are proven.— that are proven. to give us all a timescale. _ that are proven. to give us all a timescale, are _ that are proven. to give us all a timescale, are you _ that are proven. to give us all a timescale, are you to _ that are proven. to give us all a| timescale, are you to have some reliable data before christmas or is it going to be january before we really know the answer to that question? really know the answer to that cuestion? ., , really know the answer to that question?— really know the answer to that cuestion? ., , ., ., , question? the earliest for reliable data is the week _ question? the earliest for reliable data is the week between - question? the earliest for reliable i data is the week between christmas and new_ data is the week between christmas and new year— data is the week between christmas and new year and _ data is the week between christmas and new year and probably- data is the week between christmas and new year and probably early. and new year and probably early january. — and new year and probably early janua . �* ., , ., ., january. another question, about transmissibility. _ january. another question, about transmissibility. there _ january. another question, about transmissibility. there has - january. another question, about transmissibility. there has been l january. another question, about| transmissibility. there has been a lot of discussion about the doubling rate being two days or less. obviously, mathematically, that would mean with an two or three weeks the entire population would be infected. is that what you expect to happen? would you expect the doubling rate to slow down as the infection progresses? the doubling rate will slow _ infection progresses? the doubling rate will slow down _ infection progresses? the doubling rate will slow down for _ infection progresses? the doubling rate will slow down for two - infection progresses? the doubling | rate will slow down for two reasons, the first _ rate will slow down for two reasons, the first is _ rate will slow down for two reasons, the first is that people are taking sensible — the first is that people are taking sensible precautions. it is clear they— sensible precautions. it is clear they are — sensible precautions. it is clear they are taking sensible precautions and that— they are taking sensible precautions and that will slow down the doubling rate. and that will slow down the doubling rate the _ and that will slow down the doubling rate. the points we made about prioritising, interactions, matter to most— prioritising, interactions, matter to most to — prioritising, interactions, matter to most to you, advise to work from home. _ to most to you, advise to work from home. all— to most to you, advise to work from home, all designed to slow it down, at the _ home, all designed to slow it down, at the beginning to buy us time to -et at the beginning to buy us time to get through the booster. the number of people _ get through the booster. the number of people who have already been infected — of people who have already been infected and have got immunity from the booster or from omicron itself will mean — the booster or from omicron itself will mean that the group of people it can _ will mean that the group of people it can now— will mean that the group of people it can now infect is getting smaller and that— it can now infect is getting smaller and that will also slow it down and that reaches a peak. what we will see with — that reaches a peak. what we will see with this and we are seeing it in south — see with this and we are seeing it in south africa, is that it will be incredibly— in south africa, is that it will be incredibly fast, even if people are taking _ incredibly fast, even if people are taking more conscious actions, that will help— taking more conscious actions, that will help slow it down but it is going — will help slow it down but it is going to — will help slow it down but it is going to be very fast and will peak really— going to be very fast and will peak really fast, my anticipation as it may— really fast, my anticipation as it may come — really fast, my anticipation as it may come down faster than previous peaks— may come down faster than previous peaks but— may come down faster than previous peaks but i_ may come down faster than previous peaks but i can't say that for sure, it is a _ peaks but i can't say that for sure, it is a possibility. in terms of where — it is a possibility. in terms of where we _ it is a possibility. in terms of where we are going over the next couple _ where we are going over the next couple of — where we are going over the next couple of weeks, the rate of increase _ couple of weeks, the rate of increase is going to be fairly impressive. increase is going to be fairly impressive-— increase is going to be fairly imressive. , ., ,, ., impressive. lets talk about the eak. impressive. lets talk about the peak- the _ impressive. lets talk about the peak. the london _ impressive. lets talk about the peak. the london school- impressive. lets talk about the peak. the london school of. impressive. lets talk about the i peak. the london school of medicine and tropical medicine expect over the winter months 20 to 30 million british people will be infected with omicron, it will peak at 600,000 infections per day around the end of january, hospitalisations between three and 7000 per day. is that your expectation as well? i three and 7000 per day. is that your expectation as well?— expectation as well? i have to admit i am expectation as well? i have to admit i am extremely _ expectation as well? i have to admit i am extremely cautious _ expectation as well? i have to admit i am extremely cautious of- expectation as well? i have to admit i am extremely cautious of forward i i am extremely cautious of forward projections — i am extremely cautious of forward projections on exponential models. if projections on exponential models. if the _ projections on exponential models. if the london school, if the problem is that— if the london school, if the problem is that even— if the london school, if the problem is that even a very small change in the inputs— is that even a very small change in the inputs reach to a very big difference in what you get out at the other— difference in what you get out at the other end, and there are some really— the other end, and there are some really critical things that we do not know _ really critical things that we do not know. we obviously do not know what level— not know. we obviously do not know what level it — not know. we obviously do not know what level it is going to peak, we do not _ what level it is going to peak, we do not yet — what level it is going to peak, we do not yet know what the effects in terms _ do not yet know what the effects in terms of _ do not yet know what the effects in terms of hospitalisations of two doses— terms of hospitalisations of two doses of— terms of hospitalisations of two doses of vaccine, prior infection and of— doses of vaccine, prior infection and of the — doses of vaccine, prior infection and of the booster dose are, and there _ and of the booster dose are, and there is— and of the booster dose are, and there is still debate about could this be — there is still debate about could this be a — there is still debate about could this be a slightly milder version? i do not _ this be a slightly milder version? i do not think it is to the point of triviality. — do not think it is to the point of triviality, but all of these are really — triviality, but all of these are really important. i am very careful, not _ really important. i am very careful, not all— really important. i am very careful, not all the — really important. i am very careful, not... all the way through the pandemic— not... all the way through the pandemic i resisted reaching for projection numbers except a short time period when it is more reliable into public— time period when it is more reliable into public domain because i do not think— into public domain because i do not think they— into public domain because i do not think they are reliable and you cannot— think they are reliable and you cannot put enough caveats on them. lets cannot put enough caveats on them. lets look— cannot put enough caveats on them. lets look at — cannot put enough caveats on them. lets look at the numbers we do know, yesterday was the highest ever daily reported level of infections. you said you thought we might end up because of the time—lag to hospitalisations and deaths, we could end up with a record number of hospitalisations at the daily rate as well, we don't know, but we could do that. the general view is that the nhs starts to really struggle if they have to cope with more than 4000 per day, and the previous peak injanuary 4000 per day, and the previous peak in january was 4000 per day, and the previous peak injanuary was 4500. do we have to confront the realistic possibility, even likelihood that 4500 previous maximum will be exceeded? there are several different _ maximum will be exceeded? there are several different parts _ maximum will be exceeded? there are several different parts to _ maximum will be exceeded? there are several different parts to theirs. - several different parts to theirs. we are — several different parts to theirs. we are talking about huge uncertainty. i do not want this to be seen — uncertainty. i do not want this to be seen as— uncertainty. i do not want this to be seen as i_ uncertainty. i do not want this to be seen as i am saying this will happen. — be seen as i am saying this will happen, there are a range of possibilities. the peak ofjust over 4500. _ possibilities. the peak ofjust over 4500, 4583 to be exact people admitted at the absolute peak, it is possible. _ admitted at the absolute peak, it is possible, because it is going to be very concentrated, even if it is milder. — very concentrated, even if it is milder, because it is concentrated over a _ milder, because it is concentrated over a short — milder, because it is concentrated over a short period of time we could have a _ over a short period of time we could have a higher number of that going into hospital on a single day. it is possible. — into hospital on a single day. it is possible, maybe less, but certainly possible _ possible, maybe less, but certainly possible it — possible, maybe less, but certainly possible. it is going to be really concentrated in a short period of time _ concentrated in a short period of time very— concentrated in a short period of time very possibly. there are two caveats _ time very possibly. there are two caveats to — time very possibly. there are two caveats to that, one of the things that matters to the nhs is how long people _ that matters to the nhs is how long people stay. if people stay in hospital— people stay. if people stay in hospital for a shorter period because _ hospital for a shorter period because they are protected by prior vaccination, that means the total number— vaccination, that means the total number could still be lower even if the peak— number could still be lower even if the peak number per day is higher. the total— the peak number per day is higher. the total number, peak total number of inpatients wasjust the total number, peak total number of inpatients was just under 40,000, 39.254— of inpatients was just under 40,000, 39.254 to _ of inpatients was just under 40,000, 39,254 to be exact, it could be a higher— 39,254 to be exact, it could be a higher daily rate, but ill or impatient rate if there is short hospitalisation. it could go the other— hospitalisation. it could go the other way as well. the number going could _ other way as well. the number going could be _ other way as well. the number going could be lower in i see you, vaccines— could be lower in i see you, vaccines provide additional protection against severe disease. we should — protection against severe disease. we should not assume that if we got the same _ we should not assume that if we got the same number going in the front door. _ the same number going in the front door. that _ the same number going in the front door, that necessarily translate into the — door, that necessarily translate into the same number in intensive care _ into the same number in intensive care. ~ . into the same number in intensive care. . ., , ., , into the same number in intensive care. ., , ., , , care. we had the previous peak in janua , care. we had the previous peak in january. what _ care. we had the previous peak in january. what we _ care. we had the previous peak in january, what we did _ care. we had the previous peak in january, what we did then - care. we had the previous peak in january, what we did then was i january, what we did then was re—controlled by locking down the country and that brought that number down. have you advised the government that we need to be doing more now than we are currently doing to reduce the spread of omicron? i to reduce the spread of omicron? i am going to give a formal answer and then a _ am going to give a formal answer and then a more _ am going to give a formal answer and then a more helpful one. michael the only formal— then a more helpful one. michael the only formal advice is what is published from sage, and _ published from sage, and it _ published from sage, and it is important, there will be a public— and it is important, there will be a public enquiry, the convention is not the — public enquiry, the convention is not the secretary of state you would have expected the advice to ministers as confidential. what the government has said, and i think what _ government has said, and i think what we — government has said, and i think what we have all said, to make really _ what we have all said, to make really tough economic and social decisions. — really tough economic and social decisions, there are some really key bits of— decisions, there are some really key bits of information we do not have. there _ bits of information we do not have. there is— bits of information we do not have. there is a _ bits of information we do not have. there is a very wide range of possibilities as to where that could no, possibilities as to where that could go. and _ possibilities as to where that could go, and some of these are very difficult — go, and some of these are very difficult for the nhs indeed and some _ difficult for the nhs indeed and some are much less so. we are getting — some are much less so. we are getting your information the whole time _ getting your information the whole time this — getting your information the whole time. this has been reviewed by the government the whole time. they've -ot government the whole time. they've got a _ government the whole time. they've got a clear— government the whole time. they've got a clear plan of action, which ism _ got a clear plan of action, which ism which— got a clear plan of action, which is... which has two strands, working from _ is... which has two strands, working from home _ is... which has two strands, working from home and all the things to slow things— from home and all the things to slow things down at the initial stage of the upswing and the other really critically— the upswing and the other really critically is the booster programme. if critically is the booster programme. if the _ critically is the booster programme. if the facts— critically is the booster programme. if the facts change and it becomes clearer— if the facts change and it becomes clearer things are heading the wrong way, ministers are always going to take constant reviews of this. | take constant reviews of this. really take constant reviews of this. i really wanted to understand in terms of setting expectations, i appreciate you cannot tell as every detailed conversation you have with the prime minister, in terms of assessing expectations, at the moment, theatre performances, christmas parties, football matches are going ahead, but if things continue to take a turn for the worse, we need to be prepared for that to change. is that what you are saying? if that to change. is that what you are sa in: ? ., ., .. that to change. is that what you are sa inc? saying? if it looked as if the vaccine was _ saying? if it looked as if the vaccine was less _ saying? if it looked as if the vaccine was less effective i saying? if it looked as if the i vaccine was less effective than we were _ vaccine was less effective than we were expecting, that would be a material — were expecting, that would be a material change to arab ministers of view of— material change to arab ministers of view of the _ material change to arab ministers of view of the rest going forward. can i view of the rest going forward. can i add _ view of the rest going forward. can i add brisk— view of the rest going forward. can i add brisk which will happen irrespective, because of the steepness of theirs, even if this ends _ steepness of theirs, even if this ends up — steepness of theirs, even if this ends up in — steepness of theirs, even if this ends up in a situation where booster holders— ends up in a situation where booster holders to _ ends up in a situation where booster holders to a — ends up in a situation where booster holders to a large degree for a lot of people. — holders to a large degree for a lot of people, this is not an nhs point, a lot of— of people, this is not an nhs point, a lot of people will simultaneously fall ill_ a lot of people will simultaneously fall ill and be unwell, isolating our caring _ fall ill and be unwell, isolating our caring for others across the whole — our caring for others across the whole economy, so that side of things— whole economy, so that side of things we — whole economy, so that side of things we need to take seriously. thank— things we need to take seriously. thank you — things we need to take seriously. thank you very much. you things we need to take seriously. thank you very much.— things we need to take seriously. thank you very much. you have been ve clear thank you very much. you have been very clear that _ thank you very much. you have been very clear that covid-19 _ thank you very much. you have been very clear that covid-19 will - thank you very much. you have been very clear that covid-19 will be i very clear that covid—19 will be with— very clear that covid—19 will be with us— very clear that covid—19 will be with us for— very clear that covid—19 will be with us for a _ very clear that covid—19 will be with us for a long _ very clear that covid—19 will be with us for a long time, - very clear that covid—19 will be with us for a long time, if- very clear that covid—19 will be with us for a long time, if notl very clear that covid—19 will be i with us for a long time, if not for even _ with us for a long time, if not for even in— with us for a long time, if not for even in the _ with us for a long time, if not for ever. in the event _ with us for a long time, if not for ever. in the event of— with us for a long time, if not for ever. in the event of more - with us for a long time, if not for. ever. in the event of more variants of concern. — ever. in the event of more variants of concern. is _ ever. in the event of more variants of concern, is that _ ever. in the event of more variants of concern, is that your _ ever. in the event of more variants of concern, is that your view - ever. in the event of more variants of concern, is that your view that i of concern, is that your view that we will— of concern, is that your view that we will have _ of concern, is that your view that we will have to _ of concern, is that your view that we will have to continue - of concern, is that your view that we will have to continue to - of concern, is that your view that we will have to continue to live i we will have to continue to live with _ we will have to continue to live with reduced _ we will have to continue to live with reduced social— we will have to continue to live with reduced social contact, i we will have to continue to live i with reduced social contact, the prioritisation— with reduced social contact, the prioritisation for— with reduced social contact, the prioritisation for years - with reduced social contact, the prioritisation for years to - with reduced social contact, the| prioritisation for years to come? the way— prioritisation for years to come? the way i — prioritisation for years to come? the way i see _ prioritisation for years to come? the way i see this _ prioritisation for years to come? the way i see this over- prioritisation for years to come? the way i see this over a - prioritisation for years to come? the way i see this over a long i prioritisation for years to come? i the way i see this over a long time period. _ the way i see this over a long time period. five — the way i see this over a long time period, five years, that is a critical— period, five years, that is a critical question you have asked. if i critical question you have asked. if i project _ critical question you have asked. if i project forward, i would anticipate in a number of years, possibly— anticipate in a number of years, possibly 18 months, possibly less or more. _ possibly 18 months, possibly less or more. that— possibly 18 months, possibly less or more, that we will have polyvalent vaccines _ more, that we will have polyvalent vaccines that cover a wider range and we _ vaccines that cover a wider range and we will— vaccines that cover a wider range and we will have several antivirals, we had _ and we will have several antivirals, we had two — and we will have several antivirals, we had two reasonable ones, and the variety— we had two reasonable ones, and the variety of— we had two reasonable ones, and the variety of other countermeasures that mean— variety of other countermeasures that mean that the great majority and probably almost all of the heavy lifting _ and probably almost all of the heavy lifting when you get a new variant unless _ lifting when you get a new variant unless it — lifting when you get a new variant unless it is — lifting when you get a new variant unless it is extremely different, can be — unless it is extremely different, can be made by medical means because the vaccines _ can be made by medical means because the vaccines have a coverage and the antivirus _ the vaccines have a coverage and the antivirus recovers the slack. we have _ antivirus recovers the slack. we have come _ antivirus recovers the slack. we have come from a place where we had nothing _ have come from a place where we had nothing so _ have come from a place where we had nothing so everything had to be done by social— nothing so everything had to be done by social distancing and all the things— by social distancing and all the things that went with that at the beginning. where we are at the moment— beginning. where we are at the moment is a transition period, a large _ moment is a transition period, a large amount of it can be done and this is— large amount of it can be done and this is why— large amount of it can be done and this is why the tarmac is essential, we are _ this is why the tarmac is essential, we are not— this is why the tarmac is essential, we are not in— this is why the tarmac is essential, we are not in the safe haven i expect— we are not in the safe haven i expect we _ we are not in the safe haven i expect we will have in a couple of years _ expect we will have in a couple of years i_ expect we will have in a couple of years i do — expect we will have in a couple of years. i do not see —— the booster is essentiat — years. i do not see —— the booster is essential. this is something which — is essential. this is something which will— is essential. this is something which will happen in this transition, how we are responding to this variant _ transition, how we are responding to this variant is very different to how— this variant is very different to how we — this variant is very different to how we would have responded before we had _ how we would have responded before we had the _ how we would have responded before we had the vaccine. that is an example — we had the vaccine. that is an example of how things are going to change _ example of how things are going to change and that change will continue. change and that change will continue-— change and that change will continue. ., , ., , ., continue. the transition period could last _ continue. the transition period could last several _ continue. the transition period could last several years? i continue. the transition period l could last severalyears? know, continue. the transition period i could last severalyears? know, the risks will decrease _ could last severalyears? know, the risks will decrease over _ could last severalyears? know, the risks will decrease over time, i could last severalyears? know, the risks will decrease over time, it i could last severalyears? know, the risks will decrease over time, it is i risks will decrease over time, it is incremental, it is not a sudden thing. — incremental, it is not a sudden thing. each _ incremental, it is not a sudden thing, each six months will be better— thing, each six months will be better than the last. how fast it will be. — better than the last. how fast it will be, dangerous to protect science. _ will be, dangerous to protect science, but from a scientific point of view. _ science, but from a scientific point of view. my— science, but from a scientific point of view, my expectations of being surprised — of view, my expectations of being surprised on the upside on the way through— surprised on the upside on the way through on— surprised on the upside on the way through on the science so far. faster— through on the science so far. faster vaccines, faster clinical trials. — faster vaccines, faster clinical trials, faster new drugs than i would — trials, faster new drugs than i would have predicted at the beginning of the epidemic and that i did predict at the beginning. myjob is to try— did predict at the beginning. myjob is to try and give it a cautious central— is to try and give it a cautious central view. is to try and give it a cautious centralview. it is to try and give it a cautious central view. it could be slower, but it— central view. it could be slower, but it could _ central view. it could be slower, but it could be faster. i see a future — but it could be faster. i see a future which is less risky than it is at _ future which is less risky than it is at the — future which is less risky than it is at the moment and it is less risky— is at the moment and it is less risky now— is at the moment and it is less risky now than it was six months or a year— risky now than it was six months or a year ago — risky now than it was six months or a year ago-— a year ago. you foresee a situation where we will _ a year ago. you foresee a situation where we will be _ a year ago. you foresee a situation where we will be learning - a year ago. you foresee a situation where we will be learning to - a year ago. you foresee a situation where we will be learning to live i where we will be learning to live with covid-t9 _ where we will be learning to live with covid—19 as _ where we will be learning to live with covid—19 as we _ where we will be learning to live with covid—19 as we do - where we will be learning to live with covid—19 as we do with i with covid—19 as we do with influenza _ with covid—19 as we do with influenza and _ with covid—19 as we do with influenza and that - with covid—19 as we do with influenza and that is - with covid—19 as we do with influenza and that is the i with covid—19 as we do with i influenza and that is the longer term _ influenza and that is the longer term plan? _ influenza and that is the longer term plan?— influenza and that is the longer term plan? influenza and that is the longer term ian? ., , ., ., ., term plan? that is how we have dealt with every single _ term plan? that is how we have dealt with every single major _ term plan? that is how we have dealt with every single major infectious i with every single major infectious disease — with every single major infectious disease. historically, one of the things— disease. historically, one of the things medical science has been most effective _ things medical science has been most effective act is every time it has been _ effective act is every time it has been fazed by a major infectious threat. — been fazed by a major infectious threat. we — been fazed by a major infectious threat, we have found a counter measure. — threat, we have found a counter measure, including ones came from reallym _ measure, including ones came from reallym the — measure, including ones came from really... the last big pandemic, was very different, we have countermeasures to that. the future in the _ countermeasures to that. the future in the long _ countermeasures to that. the future in the long run, it is not going to id in the long run, it is not going to go away— in the long run, it is not going to go away as— in the long run, it is not going to go away as a _ in the long run, it is not going to go away as a problem, some years it will be _ go away as a problem, some years it will be a _ go away as a problem, some years it will be a big — go away as a problem, some years it will be a big problem, the way i would _ will be a big problem, the way i would see this with covid—19 at the moment. _ would see this with covid—19 at the moment, this is like a hairpin bend that has— moment, this is like a hairpin bend that has been put on our way. we were _ that has been put on our way. we were cruising along and that got slowed — were cruising along and that got slowed right down and we had to go rent it— slowed right down and we had to go rent it and _ slowed right down and we had to go rent it and now we have to get back on track— rent it and now we have to get back on track with the booster. we can accelerate — on track with the booster. we can accelerate out again. we hope it will get — accelerate out again. we hope it will get less and less necessary as medical— will get less and less necessary as medical countermeasures mount up. | medical countermeasures mount up. i want medical countermeasures mount up. want to ask medical countermeasures mount up. i want to ask some questions about pressures— want to ask some questions about pressures on — want to ask some questions about pressures on social— want to ask some questions about pressures on social care _ want to ask some questions about pressures on social care given i want to ask some questions about pressures on social care given the | pressures on social care given the link to— pressures on social care given the link to nhs— pressures on social care given the link to nhs capacity. _ pressures on social care given the link to nhs capacity. amanda i link to nhs capacity. amanda prichard — link to nhs capacity. amanda prichard wrote _ link to nhs capacity. amanda prichard wrote to _ link to nhs capacity. amanda prichard wrote to nhs - link to nhs capacity. amanda| prichard wrote to nhs leaders link to nhs capacity. amanda i prichard wrote to nhs leaders to encourage — prichard wrote to nhs leaders to encourage discharge _ prichard wrote to nhs leaders to encourage discharge from - prichard wrote to nhs leaders to i encourage discharge from hospital by avoiding _ encourage discharge from hospital by avoiding the — encourage discharge from hospital by avoiding the need _ encourage discharge from hospital by avoiding the need for— encourage discharge from hospital by avoiding the need for social- encourage discharge from hospital by avoiding the need for social care i avoiding the need for social care support— avoiding the need for social care support with _ avoiding the need for social care support with personal— avoiding the need for social care support with personal budgets i avoiding the need for social care i support with personal budgets and hotel beds — support with personal budgets and hotel beds. the _ support with personal budgets and hotel beds. the report— support with personal budgets and hotel beds. the report of- support with personal budgets and hotel beds. the report of whole i hotel beds. the report of whole hotels — hotel beds. the report of whole hotels being _ hotel beds. the report of whole hotels being turned _ hotel beds. the report of whole hotels being turned into - hotel beds. the report of whole i hotels being turned into temporary care have _ hotels being turned into temporary care have horrified _ hotels being turned into temporary care have horrified groups. - hotels being turned into temporary care have horrified groups. hotelsl care have horrified groups. hotels are not— care have horrified groups. hotels are not configured _ care have horrified groups. hotels are not configured to _ care have horrified groups. hotels are not configured to deliver- care have horrified groups. hotels are not configured to deliver care i are not configured to deliver care and question— are not configured to deliver care and question the _ are not configured to deliver care and question the safety- are not configured to deliver care and question the safety and i and question the safety and well-being _ and question the safety and well—being of— and question the safety and well—being of residents i and question the safety and well—being of residents if. and question the safety and i well—being of residents if they and question the safety and - well—being of residents if they need urgent _ well—being of residents if they need urgent medical— well—being of residents if they need urgent medical assistance. - well—being of residents if they need urgent medical assistance. do i well—being of residents if they need urgent medical assistance. do you i urgent medical assistance. do you think— urgent medical assistance. do you think people — urgent medical assistance. do you think people can— urgent medical assistance. do you think people can be _ urgent medical assistance. do you think people can be cared - urgent medical assistance. do you think people can be cared for- urgent medical assistance. do you. think people can be cared for safely in hotels _ think people can be cared for safely in hotels and — think people can be cared for safely in hotels and assess _ think people can be cared for safely in hotels and assess the _ in hotels and assess the proportionate _ in hotels and assess the proportionate measurel in hotels and assess the. proportionate measure to in hotels and assess the - proportionate measure to take in in hotels and assess the _ proportionate measure to take in the context? _ proportionate measure to take in the context? i— proportionate measure to take in the context? ., ., , ., _ context? i want to start by saying that i am context? i want to start by saying that i am not _ context? i want to start by saying that i am not responsible - context? i want to start by saying that i am not responsible for i context? i want to start by saying that i am not responsible for the | that i am not responsible for the operational side and i do not want to start _ operational side and i do not want to start making out nhs policy. you have a _ to start making out nhs policy. you have a situation where as with all emergencies, you are doing the least bad thing _ emergencies, you are doing the least bad thing that you can do which are still going _ bad thing that you can do which are still going to be far from perfect. many— still going to be far from perfect. many of— still going to be far from perfect. many of the decisions we have taken in the _ many of the decisions we have taken in the health service and care system — in the health service and care system had been way... things we would _ system had been way... things we would never— system had been way... things we would never want to do under ordinary— would never want to do under ordinary circumstances. but they are less bad _ ordinary circumstances. but they are less bad than the alternative and if the alternative is a situation where people _ the alternative is a situation where people are — the alternative is a situation where people are stuck in hospitals and exposed — people are stuck in hospitals and exposed to risks and the hospitals as a result — exposed to risks and the hospitals as a result with people who could be medically— as a result with people who could be medically discharged, people are cute in _ medically discharged, people are cute in ambulances outside with life receivable _ cute in ambulances outside with life receivable —— life threatening conditions, that is clearly even worse — conditions, that is clearly even worse than any of the alternatives. no one _ worse than any of the alternatives. no one would see this a perfect solution — no one would see this a perfect solution. it is a situation... there are some — solution. it is a situation... there are some people who can be cared for any hotel— are some people who can be cared for any hotel setting where it is a matter— any hotel setting where it is a matter of— any hotel setting where it is a matter of waiting for them to have a placement — matter of waiting for them to have a placement. for some people, it is fine _ placement. for some people, it is fine the— placement. for some people, it is fine. the colour clinician has to make _ fine. the colour clinician has to make sure _ fine. the colour clinician has to make sure as best they can that the people _ make sure as best they can that the people who — make sure as best they can that the people who are least at risk are the ones _ people who are least at risk are the ones who— people who are least at risk are the ones who end up going into hotels are similar— ones who end up going into hotels are similar kinds of things and the ones _ are similar kinds of things and the ones who— are similar kinds of things and the ones who are more at risk stay in hospital— ones who are more at risk stay in hospital until such time as they have _ hospital until such time as they have a — hospital until such time as they have a placement to which they can move _ have a placement to which they can move to _ have a placement to which they can move to. this is a matter of the perfect — move to. this is a matter of the perfect being the enemy of the good. we have _ perfect being the enemy of the good. we have to _ perfect being the enemy of the good. we have to accept it is a very difficult — we have to accept it is a very difficult period and was always going — difficult period and was always going to — difficult period and was always going to be difficult and omicron has made — going to be difficult and omicron has made it more difficult, and we will end _ has made it more difficult, and we will end up— has made it more difficult, and we will end up with some compromises which _ will end up with some compromises which are _ will end up with some compromises which are not things we would normally— which are not things we would normally wish to do. you which are not things we would normally wish to do.— normally wish to do. you are watching _ normally wish to do. you are watching the _ normally wish to do. you are watching the chief— normally wish to do. you are watching the chief medical. normally wish to do. you are i watching the chief medical officer. we are going to say goodbye to viewers on bbc world. filtrate we are going to say goodbye to viewers on bbc world.- we are going to say goodbye to viewers on bbc world. we said at the oint of viewers on bbc world. we said at the point of the — viewers on bbc world. we said at the point of the enquiry _ viewers on bbc world. we said at the point of the enquiry there _ viewers on bbc world. we said at the point of the enquiry there were i viewers on bbc world. we said at the point of the enquiry there were a i point of the enquiry there were a lot of— point of the enquiry there were a lot of things _ point of the enquiry there were a lot of things we _ point of the enquiry there were a lot of things we had _ point of the enquiry there were a lot of things we had learnt - point of the enquiry there were a lot of things we had learnt and i point of the enquiry there were a i lot of things we had learnt and we said none — lot of things we had learnt and we said none of— lot of things we had learnt and we said none of us _ lot of things we had learnt and we said none of us would _ lot of things we had learnt and we said none of us would look- lot of things we had learnt and we said none of us would look back i lot of things we had learnt and we i said none of us would look back and see the _ said none of us would look back and see the ideal— said none of us would look back and see the ideal advice _ said none of us would look back and see the ideal advice was _ said none of us would look back and see the ideal advice was given. i said none of us would look back and see the ideal advice was given. how do you _ see the ideal advice was given. how do you think— see the ideal advice was given. how do you think the _ see the ideal advice was given. how do you think the mistakes _ see the ideal advice was given. how do you think the mistakes of - see the ideal advice was given. how do you think the mistakes of last. do you think the mistakes of last year's _ do you think the mistakes of last year's discharge _ do you think the mistakes of last year's discharge policy _ do you think the mistakes of last year's discharge policy can - do you think the mistakes of last year's discharge policy can be . year's discharge policy can be avoided — year's discharge policy can be avoided this— year's discharge policy can be avoided this time _ year's discharge policy can be avoided this time around - year's discharge policy can be avoided this time around and| year's discharge policy can be - avoided this time around and who is advising _ avoided this time around and who is advising ministers— avoided this time around and who is advising ministers on— avoided this time around and who is advising ministers on the _ avoided this time around and who is advising ministers on the care - advising ministers on the care sector— advising ministers on the care sector and _ advising ministers on the care sector and save _ advising ministers on the care sector and save the _ advising ministers on the care sector and save the charge . advising ministers on the care - sector and save the charge because the advice — sector and save the charge because the advice was _ sector and save the charge because the advice was not _ sector and save the charge because the advice was not very— sector and save the charge because the advice was not very good - sector and save the charge because the advice was not very good last . the advice was not very good last year two — the advice was not very good last year two i — the advice was not very good last ear two ., . . year two i need to draw a distinction _ year two i need to draw a distinction between - year two i need to draw a distinction between the l year two i need to draw a - distinction between the discharge policy— distinction between the discharge policy which was more complicated than was _ policy which was more complicated than was portrayed in was not what i was talking — than was portrayed in was not what i was talking about. the discharge policy _ was talking about. the discharge policy was in many situations a safe policy, _ policy was in many situations a safe policy, but — policy was in many situations a safe policy, but i'll have to come back to that _ policy, but i'll have to come back to that it— policy, but i'll have to come back to that it is— policy, but i'll have to come back to that. it is an old debate. i think— to that. it is an old debate. i think we _ to that. it is an old debate. i think we are looking forward to a new set— think we are looking forward to a new set of— think we are looking forward to a new set of threats. not repeating the mistakes _ new set of threats. not repeating the mistakes made _ new set of threats. not repeating the mistakes made before. - new set of threats. not repeating the mistakes made before. there new set of threats. not repeating - the mistakes made before. there were several mistakes _ the mistakes made before. there were several mistakes that _ the mistakes made before. there were several mistakes that we _ the mistakes made before. there were several mistakes that we made, - the mistakes made before. there were several mistakes that we made, i'll - several mistakes that we made, i'll -ive several mistakes that we made, i'll give it— several mistakes that we made, i'll give it a _ several mistakes that we made, i'll give it a couple of examples which we are _ give it a couple of examples which we are hot— give it a couple of examples which we are not doing now. the first mistake — we are not doing now. the first mistake was i do not think we were fast enough on cutting down on people — fast enough on cutting down on people working between care settings rather _ people working between care settings rather than staying in one particular one, that was essential, we did _ particular one, that was essential, we did not— particular one, that was essential, we did not spot the effects of people — we did not spot the effects of people not having adequate sick pay, which _ people not having adequate sick pay, which was _ people not having adequate sick pay, which was an obvious point, when you see it. _ which was an obvious point, when you see it. we _ which was an obvious point, when you see it. we had — which was an obvious point, when you see it, we had not seen how much that was— see it, we had not seen how much that was driving things. there were several— that was driving things. there were several others which we need to come back to _ several others which we need to come back to in _ several others which we need to come back to. in my view, we have not repeated — back to. in my view, we have not repeated those mistakes this time round _ repeated those mistakes this time round we — repeated those mistakes this time round. we have learnt a lot from pugh _ round. we have learnt a lot from pugh previous events. the most difficult — pugh previous events. the most difficult situation with omicron is how to _ difficult situation with omicron is how to balance the needs to allow families— how to balance the needs to allow families and very close friends to see people in care, particularly in elderly— see people in care, particularly in elderly care, to reduce the risk of the infectious infection getting an in particular before people had a irooster— in particular before people had a booster and their in particular before people had a boosterand their immune in particular before people had a booster and their immune system responding. it is a trade—off. we do not want _ responding. it is a trade—off. we do not want people over the christmas period _ not want people over the christmas period being left alone but we do not want — period being left alone but we do not want outbreaks we can avoid and we are _ not want outbreaks we can avoid and we are navigating a route between those _ we are navigating a route between those two — we are navigating a route between those two clear needs. that is the most _ those two clear needs. that is the most difficult decision at this point — most difficult decision at this point in — most difficult decision at this point in time.— point in time. talking about capacity. — point in time. talking about capacity. i— point in time. talking about capacity. i do _ point in time. talking about capacity, i do not— point in time. talking about capacity, i do not know - point in time. talking about capacity, i do not know how point in time. talking about - capacity, i do not know how you are aware _ capacity, i do not know how you are aware of _ capacity, i do not know how you are aware of the — capacity, i do not know how you are aware of the workforce _ capacity, i do not know how you are aware of the workforce crisis, - capacity, i do not know how you are aware of the workforce crisis, but . aware of the workforce crisis, but usihgm — aware of the workforce crisis, but usihgm reiies— aware of the workforce crisis, but using... relies on— aware of the workforce crisis, but using... relies on staff— aware of the workforce crisis, but using... relies on staff being - using... relies on staff being avoided — using... relies on staff being avoided as— using... relies on staff being avoided as personal- using... relies on staff being i avoided as personal assistance using... relies on staff being - avoided as personal assistance to take on— avoided as personal assistance to take on the — avoided as personal assistance to take on the care _ avoided as personal assistance to take on the care. the _ avoided as personal assistance to take on the care. the current - take on the care. the current situation _ take on the care. the current situation is _ take on the care. the current situation is being _ take on the care. the current situation is being described l take on the care. the currentl situation is being described as take on the care. the current - situation is being described as the biggest _ situation is being described as the biggest recruitment— situation is being described as the biggest recruitment crisis - situation is being described as the biggest recruitment crisis and - biggest recruitment crisis and social— biggest recruitment crisis and social care _ biggest recruitment crisis and social care that— biggest recruitment crisis and social care that anyone - biggest recruitment crisis and social care that anyone can i social care that anyone can remember _ social care that anyone can remember. not— social care that anyone can remember. not only- social care that anyone can remember. not only that, i social care that anyone can - remember. not only that, care providers— remember. not only that, care providers are _ remember. not only that, care providers are reporting - remember. not only that, care providers are reporting that - providers are reporting that government— providers are reporting that government funding - providers are reporting that . government funding allocated providers are reporting that - government funding allocated for the recruitment— government funding allocated for the recruitment crisis— government funding allocated for the recruitment crisis is _ government funding allocated for the recruitment crisis is not— government funding allocated for the recruitment crisis is not making - government funding allocated for the recruitment crisis is not making its . recruitment crisis is not making its way past _ recruitment crisis is not making its way past iocai— recruitment crisis is not making its way past local authorities - recruitment crisis is not making its way past local authorities to - recruitment crisis is not making itsi way past local authorities to them. take any— way past local authorities to them. take any temperature _ way past local authorities to them. take any temperature on - way past local authorities to them. take any temperature on that - way past local authorities to them. take any temperature on that and| way past local authorities to them. i take any temperature on that and it is very— take any temperature on that and it is very difficult. _ take any temperature on that and it is very difficult. do _ take any temperature on that and it is very difficult. do you _ take any temperature on that and it is very difficult. do you think - take any temperature on that and it is very difficult. do you think the - is very difficult. do you think the limited _ is very difficult. do you think the limited capacity— is very difficult. do you think the limited capacity and _ is very difficult. do you think the limited capacity and workforce . limited capacity and workforce issues — limited capacity and workforce issues will _ limited capacity and workforce issues will limit _ limited capacity and workforce issues will limit how— limited capacity and workforce issues will limit how many- limited capacity and workforce - issues will limit how many patients can leave _ issues will limit how many patients can leave hospital— issues will limit how many patients can leave hospital beds _ issues will limit how many patients can leave hospital beds and - issues will limit how many patients can leave hospital beds and go - issues will limit how many patientsi can leave hospital beds and go into the community— can leave hospital beds and go into the community and _ can leave hospital beds and go into the community and do _ can leave hospital beds and go into the community and do we - can leave hospital beds and go into the community and do we need - can leave hospital beds and go into the community and do we need toi the community and do we need to think— the community and do we need to think about — the community and do we need to think about what _ the community and do we need to think about what measures - the community and do we need to think about what measures need i the community and do we need to. think about what measures need to the community and do we need to - think about what measures need to be taken _ think about what measures need to be taken to— think about what measures need to be taken to deal— think about what measures need to be taken to deal with _ think about what measures need to be taken to deal with that _ think about what measures need to be taken to deal with that if— think about what measures need to be taken to deal with that if it _ think about what measures need to be taken to deal with that if it is - think about what measures need to be taken to deal with that if it is the - taken to deal with that if it is the case _ taken to deal with that if it is the case because _ taken to deal with that if it is the case because it _ taken to deal with that if it is the case because it seems _ taken to deal with that if it is the case because it seems to - taken to deal with that if it is the case because it seems to me - taken to deal with that if it is the | case because it seems to me that this week, — case because it seems to me that this week, that _ case because it seems to me that this week, that is _ case because it seems to me that this week, that is the _ case because it seems to me that this week, that is the case. - case because it seems to me that this week, that is the case. i- case because it seems to me that this week, that is the case. i have to be careful- _ this week, that is the case. i have to be careful. my _ this week, that is the case. i have to be careful. my job _ this week, that is the case. i have to be careful. my job is _ this week, that is the case. i have to be careful. my job is to - this week, that is the case. i have to be careful. my job is to answer| to be careful. myjob is to answer questions — to be careful. myjob is to answer questions that only a doctor can answer. — questions that only a doctor can answer, that is not a doctor questioh _ answer, that is not a doctor question. i will give an answer as it is important to manage the situation _ it is important to manage the situation. there is a very serious issue _ situation. there is a very serious issue with — situation. there is a very serious issue with recruitment and social care, _ issue with recruitment and social care, that — issue with recruitment and social care, that is widely accepted. the difficulties— care, that is widely accepted. the difficulties with the social care system — difficulties with the social care system are long—standing, over many years. _ system are long—standing, over many years. this _ system are long—standing, over many years, this goes back over several administrations, this is not a problem _ administrations, this is not a problem for now, it is a long—term issue~ _ problem for now, it is a long—term issue there — problem for now, it is a long—term issue. there have been several reasons, — issue. there have been several reasons, serious attempts to look at what we _ reasons, serious attempts to look at what we can — reasons, serious attempts to look at what we can do to improve the situation — what we can do to improve the situation and social care. i am not the right— situation and social care. i am not the right person to give review on that, _ the right person to give review on that, but— the right person to give review on that, but i— the right person to give review on that, but i am acknowledging the question— that, but i am acknowledging the question is a sensible question, but i am question is a sensible question, but i am not _ question is a sensible question, but i am not the — question is a sensible question, but i am not the right to answer it. you will know this _ i am not the right to answer it. ym. will know this week there has been a debate about the introduction of plan b measures. many people voted, myself included, based on data and insights and predictions given by yourself and other colleagues. can i ask you a few questions on some of that data and some of the questions i have heard since that time. one is if you could share the positive cases and the trend is becoming more public? fin cases and the trend is becoming more ublic? , ., , , cases and the trend is becoming more ublic? ,.,, , , , , public? on positive test versus test re orted, public? on positive test versus test reported. this _ public? on positive test versus test reported. this is — public? on positive test versus test reported, this is a _ public? on positive test versus test reported, this is a uk _ public? on positive test versus test reported, this is a uk issue. - public? on positive test versus test reported, this is a uk issue. we - public? on positive test versus test | reported, this is a uk issue. we put the statistics _ reported, this is a uk issue. we put the statistics under— reported, this is a uk issue. we put the statistics under regular - reported, this is a uk issue. we put the statistics under regular regularl the statistics under regular regular basis, _ the statistics under regular regular basis, the — the statistics under regular regular basis, the number— the statistics under regular regular basis, the number of— the statistics under regular regular basis, the number of tests - the statistics under regular regulari basis, the number of tests positive. one basis, the number of tests positive. 0ne testing — basis, the number of tests positive. one testing channel— basis, the number of tests positive. one testing channel versus - basis, the number of tests positive. one testing channel versus on—sitei one testing channel versus on—site testing _ one testing channel versus on—site testing versus _ one testing channel versus on—site testing versus adult _ one testing channel versus on—site testing versus adult social- one testing channel versus on—site testing versus adult social care - one testing channel versus on—sitei testing versus adult social care and iaterai— testing versus adult social care and lateral fiow — testing versus adult social care and lateral flow. we _ testing versus adult social care and lateral flow. we can _ testing versus adult social care and lateral flow. we can see _ testing versus adult social care and lateral flow. we can see there - testing versus adult social care and lateral flow. we can see there is i testing versus adult social care and lateral flow. we can see there is a i lateral flow. we can see there is a bil lateral flow. we can see there is a big variation — lateral flow. we can see there is a big variation in _ lateral flow. we can see there is a big variation in those. _ lateral flow. we can see there is a big variation in those. walk - lateral flow. we can see there is a big variation in those. walk and i big variation in those. walk and testing — big variation in those. walk and testing has— big variation in those. walk and testing has highest— big variation in those. walk and testing has highest test - big variation in those. walk and i testing has highest test positivity because — testing has highest test positivity because these _ testing has highest test positivity because these people _ testing has highest test positivity because these people are - because these people are symptomatic _ because these people are symptomatic. adult- because these people are| symptomatic. adult social because these people are - symptomatic. adult social care has low positivity — symptomatic. adult social care has low positivity because _ symptomatic. adult social care has low positivity because we - symptomatic. adult social care has low positivity because we are - low positivity because we are testing — low positivity because we are testing peopie _ low positivity because we are testing people who _ low positivity because we are testing people who are - low positivity because we are testing people who are well i testing people who are well regularly— testing people who are well regularly and _ testing people who are well regularly and repeatedly . testing people who are well regularly and repeatedly to| testing people who are well - regularly and repeatedly to avoid infection— regularly and repeatedly to avoid infection is— regularly and repeatedly to avoid infection is coming _ regularly and repeatedly to avoid infection is coming in. _ regularly and repeatedly to avoid infection is coming in. that- regularly and repeatedly to avoid infection is coming in. that data| regularly and repeatedly to avoid i infection is coming in. that data is on a _ infection is coming in. that data is on a weekly— infection is coming in. that data is on a weekly basis _ infection is coming in. that data is on a weekly basis and _ infection is coming in. that data is on a weekly basis and forms - infection is coming in. that data is on a weekly basis and forms part i infection is coming in. that data isi on a weekly basis and forms part of the traditional— on a weekly basis and forms part of the traditional nhs _ on a weekly basis and forms part of the traditional nhs test _ on a weekly basis and forms part of the traditional nhs test and - on a weekly basis and forms part of the traditional nhs test and trace i the traditional nhs test and trace statistics — the traditional nhs test and trace statistics we _ the traditional nhs test and trace statistics. we report— the traditional nhs test and trace statistics. we report the _ the traditional nhs test and trace statistics. we report the number. the traditional nhs test and trace l statistics. we report the number of test performed _ statistics. we report the number of test performed on _ statistics. we report the number of test performed on a _ statistics. we report the number of test performed on a daily— statistics. we report the number of test performed on a daily basis- statistics. we report the number of test performed on a daily basis oni test performed on a daily basis on the coronavirus— one of the comments i have heard it is because we are now addressing children age to age five, the chances of having a higher rate of infections is going to go up because a sample data is higher. is that a fair thing to say or is it skewing the data? we fair thing to say or is it skewing the data? ~ . , ., ., fair thing to say or is it skewing the data? ~ ., ., ., ,, , the data? we release on our weekly re ort ace the data? we release on our weekly report age testing — the data? we release on our weekly report age testing rate _ the data? we release on our weekly report age testing rate and - the data? we release on our weekly report age testing rate and also - report age testing rate and also other— report age testing rate and also other liberty rates by children of all age _ other liberty rates by children of all age groups. we have always tested — all age groups. we have always tested young children who have had symptomatic disease. the only change in the _ symptomatic disease. the only change in the advice that has come out this week— in the advice that has come out this week is— in the advice that has come out this week is a _ in the advice that has come out this week is a daily testing if you are in contact — week is a daily testing if you are in contact will go down to children as young — in contact will go down to children as young as— in contact will go down to children as young as five to reduce transmissions in schools. in terms of... transmissions in schools. in terms of- -- one — transmissions in schools. in terms of- -- one of _ transmissions in schools. in terms of... one of the _ transmissions in schools. in terms of. .. one of the other— transmissions in schools. in terms of... one of the other comments i i of... one of the other comments i have heard is that people are concerned that we are prioritising covid—i9 over other things, especially with the omicron variant. covid—i9 over cancer, covid—i9 over other serious issues. what would you say to that? i other serious issues. what would you say to that?— say to that? i think this is sometimes _ say to that? i think this is sometimes said _ say to that? i think this is sometimes said by - say to that? i think this is | sometimes said by people say to that? i think this is - sometimes said by people who say to that? i think this is _ sometimes said by people who have no understanding of help at all but i don't think it is serious. when they say it, it is usually because they want to make a political point. the reality is, if you ask any doctor any part of the system they will say this, what is threatening our ability to do cancer, all these things is the fact that so much of the nhs effort, so many beds are having to be put over to covid—i9 and we are having to work in a less efficient way because covid—i9 is air. the finding a way to manage it which minimises the impact is essential to what we're trying to and i completely agree there are multiple other things in addition to covid—i9, but when we have big waves as we have now, we can do huge damage elsewhere. it is a complete inversion of reality. we have not had the lock downs, the whole system would have been in deep trouble and the impact on things like heart attacks and strokes must still come forward for would have been even worse than it was. i want to make it absolutely clear that is an inversion of reality.- absolutely clear that is an inversion of reali . . , , ., inversion of reality. last question. i know inversion of reality. last question. i know one — inversion of reality. last question. i know one of _ inversion of reality. last question. i know one of the _ inversion of reality. last question. i know one of the concerns - inversion of reality. last question. i know one of the concerns is - inversion of reality. last question. | i know one of the concerns is about omicron and the impact on children. have you got any more evidence about what impact they could be that is different from the delta variant? that is important. initially, some of the south african data did imply that there might be a slight increase in the number of children getting it compared to previous ways. still nothing like many of the other infections. as data has gone on in south africa and, for what it is worth, in the uk, we not that develop. so i see at the moment my view is that it is too early to be sure but i don't think anything is saying we should change our advice in terms of relative risks for children. the total number of people infected will go up, so a lot of children will get it and a very small number, hopefully, we'll get into trouble because of it. it is not a trivial disease but we still stick to the view it is much milder in children than in older adults. i've got two topics. one is pregnant women _ i've got two topics. one is pregnant women and — i've got two topics. one is pregnant women and new variants. i will get started _ women and new variants. i will get started in— women and new variants. i will get started. in august only 22.2% of pregnant— started. in august only 22.2% of pregnant women were vaccinated, yet one in— pregnant women were vaccinated, yet one in six— pregnant women were vaccinated, yet one in six of— pregnant women were vaccinated, yet one in six of the most critically ill patients are unvaccinated pregnant women. what should the government be doing to increase the take-up _ government be doing to increase the take—up and what it mistake to... on the first— take—up and what it mistake to... on the first one. — take—up and what it mistake to... on the first one. i— take—up and what it mistake to... on the first one, i completely agree and the — the first one, i completely agree and the uptake of vaccination in pregnant— and the uptake of vaccination in pregnant women is depressingly low. as you _ pregnant women is depressingly low. as you say, _ pregnant women is depressingly low. as you say, significant numbers of women _ as you say, significant numbers of women come to serious harm. almost all of— women come to serious harm. almost all of the _ women come to serious harm. almost all of the women in hospital where in i all of the women in hospital where in i see _ all of the women in hospital where in i see you — all of the women in hospital where in i see you with this are people who have — in i see you with this are people who have not been vaccinated. so vaccination — who have not been vaccinated. so vaccination protects pregnant women. we realty— vaccination protects pregnant women. we really should have made that point _ we really should have made that point even clearer earlier on. it is a medicai— point even clearer earlier on. it is a medical profession point. people like me _ a medical profession point. people like me have said it, obstetricians have _ like me have said it, obstetricians have said — like me have said it, obstetricians have said it — like me have said it, obstetricians have said it. i've said it several times— have said it. i've said it several times publicly. i have heard... we have _ times publicly. i have heard... we have ali— times publicly. i have heard... we have all tried to fade very strongly. there are a lot of myths. we need _ strongly. there are a lot of myths. we need to— strongly. there are a lot of myths. we need to say that it is not true there _ we need to say that it is not true there are — we need to say that it is not true there are increased risks with this vaccine _ there are increased risks with this vaccine but — there are increased risks with this vaccine but it is true that covid—i9 and pregnancy is a dangerous combination we should encourage everyone — combination we should encourage everyone who is pregnant to get vaccinated because that helps protect — vaccinated because that helps protect them and that in the long run is _ protect them and that in the long run is in — protect them and that in the long run is in the interest of the baby and their— run is in the interest of the baby and theirfuture. so run is in the interest of the baby and their future. sol run is in the interest of the baby and their future. so i absolutely agree _ and their future. so i absolutely agree it — and their future. so i absolutely agree it is — and their future. so i absolutely agree it is a serious problem and everybody— agree it is a serious problem and everybody should be doing it. in terms _ everybody should be doing it. in terms of— everybody should be doing it. in terms of change of emphasis, i think they are _ terms of change of emphasis, i think they are looking at this and i hope they are looking at this and i hope they will— they are looking at this and i hope they will give an answer on that really— they will give an answer on that really soon. they will give an answer on that really soon-— they will give an answer on that really soon. thank you it is quite shockin: really soon. thank you it is quite shocking given — really soon. thank you it is quite shocking given the _ really soon. thank you it is quite shocking given the statistics - really soon. thank you it is quite shocking given the statistics on | shocking given the statistics on what you have just said about the importance of women getting vaccinated, pregnant women, that they had a prioritised pregnant women sooner. ijust they had a prioritised pregnant women sooner. i just wanted they had a prioritised pregnant women sooner. ijust wanted to break down a little bit further, the 22% is shockingly low and even lower when you look at ethnicity. is there any plans to prioritise an education programme and what is going to be done to increase at low vaccination rate for pregnant women as a whole? are there any plans in the pipeline? there is a really strong communications push. i have seen a lot of activity on this. there are two things intersecting on this. there is a strong communications push to make sure that we are much more focused in making sure we get over off messages on vaccination through to people from every community in the uk, including ethnic minority communities, and thatis ethnic minority communities, and that is essential. it is getting better overall, but it is nowhere nearas better overall, but it is nowhere near as good as it should be. there is a separate thing and pregnancy. within that, there is a separate thing on pregnancy in ethnic minority groups. i know individual practitioners as well as particular places where there are high concentrations of an ethnic minority groups are doing everything they can to get this message home that vaccination in pregnancy is really important, that the safety of mum and for the long—term safety and benefits of baby as well. igratith and for the long-term safety and benefits of baby as well. with the s - read benefits of baby as well. with the sread of benefits of baby as well. with the spread of omicron, _ benefits of baby as well. with the spread of omicron, do _ benefits of baby as well. with the spread of omicron, do you - benefits of baby as well. with the spread of omicron, do you think. spread of omicron, do you think pregnant women should be better supported to work from home all stay—at—home and financially supported if they cannot work from home? i supported if they cannot work from home? ~ ,. . ~ supported if they cannot work from home? ~' . ,, ., home? i think i will revert back to a ointi home? i think i will revert back to a point i made — home? i think i will revert back to a point i made earlier, _ home? i think i will revert back to a point i made earlier, that - home? i think i will revert back to a point i made earlier, that is - home? i think i will revert back to a point i made earlier, that is not| a point i made earlier, that is not a point i made earlier, that is not a medical question that i have particular expertise to say, except the general point that i want pregnant women to be supported medically very strongly, and the most important thing is vaccination. i will move on to new variants. it is time to move on from focusing on just our national vaccine statistics and more towards a global vaccination rates, regarding the slowing spread of new variants. i slowing spread of new variants. i think i very strongly believe and i am very confident that everybody, both my fellow panellists and the committee believes, that we should be maximising the number of vaccinations available in lower income countries. that is a humanitarian need, a need as fellow global citizens and it is in our self—interest as well because it is a problem for everybody. there is absolutely nothing to be lost and everything to be gained. let me put a boat on that. the biggest but is that in africa and parts of asia where i worked in my early career, there are good vaccination system is vaccinating children under five there are good vaccination system is vaccinating children underfive but there is not a system designed for vaccinating older adults who are really the biggest priority in the world. and that is something that we can'tjust world. and that is something that we can't just say, world. and that is something that we can'tjust say, here is a crate of vaccines come off you go, we have to look at the delivery system. we need to see this as a whole system problem, notjust of a product problem. but i do basically agree with what you are saying. i don't think that's controversial. i think everybody would agree. abs, think that's controversial. i think everybody would agree. a couple of context setting _ everybody would agree. a couple of context setting questions. - everybody would agree. a couple of context setting questions. what - everybody would agree. a couple ofj context setting questions. what are the current— context setting questions. what are the current r value. the context setting questions. what are the current r value.— the current r value. the overall r value reported — the current r value. the overall r value reported last _ the current r value. the overall r value reported last week - the current r value. the overall r value reported last week is - the current r value. the overall r i value reported last week is between one and 1.2. however, it should be noticed that there are two current variants, delta which is relatively stable, and omicron which is increasing very rapidly. and with a doubling time of every two days for omicron is estimated to be much higher. very broad estimates between three and five at the moment. what three and five at the moment. what is absolute risk _ three and five at the moment. what is absolute risk to _ three and five at the moment. what is absolute risk to those _ three and five at the moment. what is absolute risk to those vaccinated and unvaccinated of the delta variant? _ and unvaccinated of the delta variant? what do you mean? what is a risk of— variant? what do you mean? what is a risk of mortality for those who have delta _ risk of mortality for those who have delta versus... the risk of mortality for those who have delta versus. . ._ delta versus... the vaccinated risk of delta is — delta versus... the vaccinated risk of delta is reduces _ delta versus... the vaccinated risk of delta is reduces that _ delta versus... the vaccinated risk of delta is reduces that risk - delta versus... the vaccinated risk of delta is reduces that risk of - of delta is reduces that risk of death by 1990— of delta is reduces that risk of death b 1990 ' , . , death by 1990 9596. the absolute risk. if death by 1990 9596. the absolute risk- if you _ death by 1990 9596. the absolute risk. if you are _ death by 1990 9596. the absolute risk. if you are under _ death by 1990 9596. the absolute risk. if you are under the - death by 1990 9596. the absolute risk. if you are under the age - death by 1990 9596. the absolute risk. if you are under the age of i death by 1990 9596. the absolute | risk. if you are under the age of 40 it is extremely low. lesson one in 10,000 — it is extremely low. lesson one in 10,000 so — it is extremely low. lesson one in 10,000. 50 the it is extremely low. lesson one in 10,000. so the risk varies with age and vaccine — 10,000. so the risk varies with age and vaccine is the key to reducing risk _ and vaccine is the key to reducing risk. , ,., . and vaccine is the key to reducing risk. , . ., risk. very important to get vaccinated. _ risk. very important to get vaccinated. do _ risk. very important to get vaccinated. do we - risk. very important to get vaccinated. do we know. risk. very important to get| vaccinated. do we know the risk. very important to get - vaccinated. do we know the relative risk of omicron with regards to vaccinated and unvaccinated people. not for severity of mortality. we do know _ not for severity of mortality. we do know that _ not for severity of mortality. we do know that the vaccine effectiveness is lower— know that the vaccine effectiveness is lower for— know that the vaccine effectiveness is lower for omicron than it is for delta _ is lower for omicron than it is for delta stop— is lower for omicron than it is for delta stop after two doses of five to vaccine, — delta stop after two doses of five to vaccine, for example, at eight weeks. _ to vaccine, for example, at eight weeks, more than eight weeks i take your vaccine — weeks, more than eight weeks i take your vaccine effectiveness is about 40% and _ your vaccine effectiveness is about 40% and once you've got boosters, that goes _ 40% and once you've got boosters, that goes up to about 75% for omicron _ that goes up to about 7596 for omicron. ., , that goes up to about 7596 for omicron. . , , ., omicron. really helpful to get the context and _ omicron. really helpful to get the context and why _ omicron. really helpful to get the context and why their _ omicron. really helpful to get the context and why their boosters - omicron. really helpful to get the | context and why their boosters are so important. you talked at the start in the very first pandemic about how the whole plan is a population risk reduction. washing your hands is easy to implement. mask wearing a cynic stubble. do you have a strategy on each of those implementations regarding how much risk it reduces? do we know hand washing reduces by, say, 10%, mask wearing 5%? h0 washing reduces by, say, 1096, mask wearing 5%?— wearing 596? no and the problem is there are lots _ wearing 596? no and the problem is there are lots of _ wearing 596? no and the problem is there are lots of numbers _ wearing 596? no and the problem is there are lots of numbers bandied i there are lots of numbers bandied about _ there are lots of numbers bandied about the — there are lots of numbers bandied about. the problem is what you have is different _ about. the problem is what you have is different combinations of things you can _ is different combinations of things you can do, each one interact differently with the others. if you 'ust differently with the others. if you just take — differently with the others. if you just take it in isolation, you would never— just take it in isolation, you would never say— just take it in isolation, you would never say randomise one group to have _ never say randomise one group to have a _ never say randomise one group to have a face — never say randomise one group to have a face mask, another group... what _ have a face mask, another group... what you _ have a face mask, another group... what you would say in reality is due to the _ what you would say in reality is due to the whole lot because they build on each _ to the whole lot because they build on each other. hand washing is about things— on each other. hand washing is about things you _ on each other. hand washing is about things you might pick up by touching because _ things you might pick up by touching because someone is coughed on a table _ because someone is coughed on a table. where is opening windows is particularly important for anything that is— particularly important for anything that is aerosol. what we would all say is _ that is aerosol. what we would all say is all — that is aerosol. what we would all say is all of — that is aerosol. what we would all say is all of these are more impact of things— say is all of these are more impact of things incrementally, but if you put them — of things incrementally, but if you put them all together, much larger. but do _ put them all together, much larger. but do all— put them all together, much larger. but do all of them because they help to protect _ but do all of them because they help to protect you against different elements of the risk which surrounding you. aerosols, etc. you are beating — surrounding you. aerosols, etc. you are beating me _ surrounding you. aerosols, etc. gm. are beating me to wait, because i know it is for the ministers and the prime minister to decide what to do, but how is a data presented over which combination you put in place? for example, we could have chosen to have the rule of six return, we could have gone into tears again, we could have gone into tears again, we could have gone into tears again, we could have actually closed clubs of pubs. how was it decided which constellation comes together? i constellation comes together? i think, in a sense, i will simplify something _ think, in a sense, i will simplify something very complicated for ministers, but the first layer is what _ ministers, but the first layer is what can— ministers, but the first layer is what can we do that have no obvious downside _ what can we do that have no obvious downside socially and economically. saying _ downside socially and economically. saying wash your hands, put on a facemask, — saying wash your hands, put on a facemask, open the windows has no downsides — facemask, open the windows has no downsides. can we get through this 'ust downsides. can we get through this just with _ downsides. can we get through this just with those? then there are some things— just with those? then there are some things which — just with those? then there are some things which have a bit more impact socially— things which have a bit more impact socially and — things which have a bit more impact socially and economically and we have _ socially and economically and we have to _ socially and economically and we have to take a view on that. the next _ have to take a view on that. the next level— have to take a view on that. the next level up is clearly things like advising _ next level up is clearly things like advising working from home as the government has done. it is not in law but— government has done. it is not in law but it — government has done. it is not in law but it is — government has done. it is not in law but it is in guidance. and things— law but it is in guidance. and things like you must wear a facemask rather— things like you must wear a facemask rather than _ things like you must wear a facemask rather than we would really like you too. rather than we would really like you too and _ rather than we would really like you too. and then obviously you go up a ladder— too. and then obviously you go up a ladder of— too. and then obviously you go up a ladder of intervention, each step up the ladder— ladder of intervention, each step up the ladder adds some protection but as you _ the ladder adds some protection but as you go _ the ladder adds some protection but as you go up the impact on society and the _ as you go up the impact on society and the economy gets greater. the difficult _ and the economy gets greater. the difficult decision for ministers is how far— difficult decision for ministers is how far up — difficult decision for ministers is how far up that letter should they decide _ how far up that letter should they decide to — how far up that letter should they decide to go. and that is the way i wouldm _ decide to go. and that is the way i would... ., . _, would... now we have the context white vaccines _ would... now we have the context white vaccines are _ would... now we have the context white vaccines are so _ would... now we have the context white vaccines are so important, i would... now we have the context l white vaccines are so important, the way in which you can deal with it for the general population. one of the biggest problems facing us in the biggest problems facing us in the future is a fact that there are about 10% of the population who currently unvaccinated in the currently unvaccinated in the current first vaccine rate is about 20,000, 22,000 over a seven day average. so we have a problem in society. how do we deal with the 10% or 5% or whatever it turns out to be a people who won't get vaccinated, given all the contacts you given to all the other questions and now we know about the importance of the vaccine. but for those five or 10%, medically what is your response of how we can deal with them? what are the options he would present in front of government? i the options he would present in front of government?— the options he would present in front of government? i think there is a very small _ front of government? i think there is a very small number _ front of government? i think there is a very small number of - front of government? i think there is a very small number of people i front of government? i think there i is a very small number of people and very noisy. _ is a very small number of people and very noisy, but very small, who have weird _ very noisy, but very small, who have weird conspiracy theories who say not to— weird conspiracy theories who say not to get— weird conspiracy theories who say not to get vaccinated. except where they work _ not to get vaccinated. except where they work where there are a lot of vulnerable — they work where there are a lot of vulnerable people, the view of government is fine, you have to accept _ government is fine, you have to accept that. but the 10%, a large proportion— accept that. but the 10%, a large proportionjust haven't accept that. but the 10%, a large proportion just haven't got accept that. but the 10%, a large proportionjust haven't got round to it. proportionjust haven't got round to it and _ proportionjust haven't got round to it and that — proportionjust haven't got round to it. and that is the people you are addressing. we have to make sure it is culturally— addressing. we have to make sure it is culturally relevant as well. not 'ust is culturally relevant as well. not just ethnically, but every bit in society— just ethnically, but every bit in society feel we are talking directly to them _ society feel we are talking directly to them in— society feel we are talking directly to them in a comfortable way and trusting _ to them in a comfortable way and trusting of~ — to them in a comfortable way and trusting of. they want to note that the disease is a big enough threat it is worth — the disease is a big enough threat it is worth doing anything at all. secondly. — it is worth doing anything at all. secondly, they want to know that the vaccines _ secondly, they want to know that the vaccines actually work and on both of those _ vaccines actually work and on both of those we have incredibly good evidence — of those we have incredibly good evidence. we know this is a big threat — evidence. we know this is a big threat and _ evidence. we know this is a big threat and we'd know that vaccines do work _ threat and we'd know that vaccines do work. the third thing is they would — do work. the third thing is they would want to know that the side—effects out within, proportionate to the benefit that the vaccine is giving them. that when _ the vaccine is giving them. that when we — the vaccine is giving them. that when we have to keep on coming up on the sarah _ when we have to keep on coming up on the sarah huge numbers of myths out there _ the sarah huge numbers of myths out there. these are not people who are anti-waxes, — there. these are not people who are anti—waxes, but the people who believe — anti—waxes, but the people who believe them, they have read something on the internet and they are worried — something on the internet and they are worried and they need serious information put it in. we need to make _ information put it in. we need to make it — information put it in. we need to make it convenient. it makes a big difference — make it convenient. it makes a big difference i— make it convenient. it makes a big difference. i found make it convenient. it makes a big difference. ifound it make it convenient. it makes a big difference. i found it very striking when _ difference. i found it very striking when i _ difference. i found it very striking when i was — difference. i found it very striking when i was last there, on the wards, that the _ when i was last there, on the wards, that the people who had not vaccines, an awful lot of them said i vaccines, an awful lot of them said i haven't— vaccines, an awful lot of them said i haven't got round to it yet. it wasn't — i haven't got round to it yet. it wasn't that— i haven't got round to it yet. it wasn't that they weren't believed all sorts— wasn't that they weren't believed all sorts of nonsense. but the great majority _ all sorts of nonsense. but the great majority was, i haven't got round to it yet _ majority was, i haven't got round to it yet and — majority was, i haven't got round to it yet and it — majority was, i haven't got round to it yet. and it is a combination of making — it yet. and it is a combination of making sure are corrected politely and scientifically addressed and make _ and scientifically addressed and make it — and scientifically addressed and make it convenient, and i hope this huge _ make it convenient, and i hope this huge booster campaign also gives people _ huge booster campaign also gives people an — huge booster campaign also gives people an opportunity to come back and get _ people an opportunity to come back and get their vaccine and now is a really— and get their vaccine and now is a really good — and get their vaccine and now is a really good time to get my first second — really good time to get my first second vaccine. my final question is, one _ second vaccine. my final question is, one thing we have agreed is to suspend _ is, one thing we have agreed is to suspend a — is, one thing we have agreed is to suspend a 15 minute wait post suspend a15 minute wait post fighter— suspend a 15 minute wait post fighter vaccine for business. are there _ fighter vaccine for business. are there any— fighter vaccine for business. are there any other things you are looking — there any other things you are looking at, given how important it is to be _ looking at, given how important it is to be convenient? what is a government doing practically from the opposition that may well make a difference _ the opposition that may well make a difference to making the booster programme as successful as possible? you have _ programme as successful as possible? you have touched on one of the key thing is that which is that by suspending the 15 minute wait, we can get an awful lot more patience to any given clinic. that applies not just of the very to any given clinic. that applies notjust of the very large vaccine centres, but also i had the privilege of working some community pharmacies and it makes a real difference there because there is only a limited number of places where people can sit to wait. not on the operational side, but there are two key things. the first is opening extra very large booster centres. i know wembley will be open this weekend and chelsea stadium. those will help to get numbers up to get through. but next, and this is quite important for the point that could chris whitty was making, much smaller convenient centres, places and people trust. i work with a gp in west london who opened a vaccine centre in a community centre as part of a mosque, centre in a community centre as part ofa mosque, going centre in a community centre as part of a mosque, going to places that people trust and seen people who are community leaders being part of the planning of the vaccine programme at their community but also it helps to increase the number of slots and the ability of people to be able to get to a centre that feels relevant to them. ., , ,., to a centre that feels relevant to them. ., ~ , to a centre that feels relevant to them. ., ,,., . , . ., ., them. professor whitty, i want to go into some more _ them. professor whitty, i want to go into some more detail— them. professor whitty, i want to go into some more detail about - them. professor whitty, i want to go into some more detail about the - them. professor whitty, i want to go into some more detail about the linkj into some more detail about the link between _ into some more detail about the link between case numbers and hospitalisations. obviously, with the vaccines we are broken that link to a large _ the vaccines we are broken that link to a large extent to cases and hospitalisations, so can you take a three _ hospitalisations, so can you take a three way— hospitalisations, so can you take a three way you think we are in terms of the _ three way you think we are in terms of the percentage of hospitalisations we expect from omicron — hospitalisations we expect from omicron and how that differs from delta? _ omicron and how that differs from delta? , , ., , ., ., delta? the very short version of that is that _ delta? the very short version of that is that we _ delta? the very short version of that is that we don't _ delta? the very short version of that is that we don't yet - delta? the very short version of that is that we don't yet know, i that is that we don't yet know, unfortunately. and i'm going to make an assumption which i think is safe now that naturally omicron is not more dangerous than delta. it may be milder, it may be the same, we don't know. this is before vaccination. if we compare where we were, let's say with the last big wave, not the delta but the one before that, the infection hospitalisation rate of people 65 or over, for that way prior to the vaccination programme was about 22%. 22% of older people who got infected but end up in hospital. after two doses and a big vaccination programme, that drops to 6%. so 6% of people who were infected ended up in hospital over 65. much lower in younger people, to be clear. the question with omicron is is it intrinsically milder? i don't think there is clear evidence that says it is at this point in time. there are reports that lower hospitalisations in south africa in the last wait, but i'm not sure. it may be, but we don't know. and the second question is, after you have had two doses of a vaccine and then three doses with a booster, at what percentage does it reduce its severity compared to what it would have been? and if that is good as delta? it is unlikely it will be better than delta because it is less well matched, but if it is as good as delta, rss and reduction in that severity? and that it is a key question with what is going to happen for the health service over the next period. so i think it is really critical that we wait for those data before we jump into saint this is what is going to happen, but the worst that would happen would be where we were back in the alpha wave earlier this year. and i think the top end of expectations would probably be for two vaccines to be where we are with a 6% for delta, but it is possible that with a boost we are better off with omicron than we are better off with omicron than we are better off with omicron than we are with two vaccines with delta for severe disease. it is possible. but we honestly don't know. the range of possibilities is really quite wide and that is why it is very difficult to make definitive views about where the nhs is going in the next four weeks. in views about where the nhs is going in the next four weeks.— in the next four weeks. in this we have a significant _ in the next four weeks. in this we have a significant change - in the next four weeks. in this we have a significant change in - in the next four weeks. in this we | have a significant change in terms of hospitalisation rates, with a type of numbers we are talking about here with omicron infections, we are looking at some very serious hospital admissions. looking at some very serious hospitaladmissions. is looking at some very serious hospital admissions. is it looking at some very serious hospital admissions. is it fair to sa ? hospital admissions. is it fair to say? yes. _ hospital admissions. is it fair to say? yes. i _ hospital admissions. is it fair to say? yes, ithink— hospital admissions. is it fair to say? yes, i think unless - hospital admissions. is it fair to l say? yes, i think unless things... the things we know about, most of them so far have not fallen our way. lots of antibody changes, at least one of the drugs we have lost. we know that it was less effective on infection. but some critical things we don't know, severity, we don't know for sure. and on the effects of booster vaccines. we don't know. if they all fall our way, the numbers will be less concerning. if they don't, and so far we have not been lucky in covid—19, sol don't, and so far we have not been lucky in covid—19, so i think planning on the basis they will, the numbers out in hospital over a short period could be very high indeed. the big issue here is that they will all come at a very concentrated time. it is back to the original set of questions. the same number spread over three months might be something which is much easier to the nhs to handle than the numbers we mighty of a very short period of time. so that is a very big issue and if i can add an additional point, people have to realise that this will also be happening at a time when a very significant number of staff will be off ill, isolating caring. so you will have a reduction in and increasing demand in the health service over a very short time period and that is really the reason we are taking this extremely seriously. in we are taking this extremely seriously-— we are taking this extremely seriousl . , ., . seriously. in terms of hospital ac uired seriously. in terms of hospital acquired infections, _ seriously. in terms of hospital acquired infections, which - seriously. in terms of hospital acquired infections, which we | seriously. in terms of hospital - acquired infections, which we know has been significant throughout the process of this disease, what more can we do on that front? because it is obviously even more what seems to be, even more infectious and previous ways? we be, even more infectious and previous ways?— be, even more infectious and revious wa s? ~ . . , . previous ways? we have a problem. we have learnt a — previous ways? we have a problem. we have learnt a lot _ previous ways? we have a problem. we have learnt a lot and _ previous ways? we have a problem. we have learnt a lot and i _ previous ways? we have a problem. we have learnt a lot and i think— previous ways? we have a problem. we have learnt a lot and i think the - have learnt a lot and i think the control is much better than it was. but two things are going to go against us. this is more infectious than previous ones. it seems to have an extraordinary intrinsic ability to infect and that will make it harder. and the mainstays of our approach was vaccination. vaccination will probably reduce transmission, but it is not going to take it right down to where it would have been with booster vaccination against delta. so i think we will do everything we can in the health service but i think we can't claim we will get away scott free, even with really good, rigorous approaches, there will be hospital outbreaks and other health and social outbreaks. we will do everything we can to minimise him but i don't want to set people up to fail by saying we won't, because we will because of these two factors. thank you. professor whitty, will because of these two factors. thank you. professorwhitty, if will because of these two factors. thank you. professor whitty, if we reflect _ thank you. professor whitty, if we reflect on — thank you. professor whitty, if we reflect on the last 20 months we have _ reflect on the last 20 months we have taken different approaches, understandably, to trying to suppress the spread of the virus. we have had _ suppress the spread of the virus. we have had very significant lock downs. — have had very significant lock downs, regionaltears, detailed specific— downs, regionaltears, detailed specific restrictions. in the last ten days— specific restrictions. in the last ten days a _ specific restrictions. in the last ten days a prime minister has urged people _ ten days a prime minister has urged people to _ ten days a prime minister has urged people to get boosted and we seek use around the block. you have said you have _ use around the block. you have said you have repeated it today that people — you have repeated it today that people should prioritise their social— people should prioritise their social contact and we know that they are already _ social contact and we know that they are already doing that. people are withdrawing from some events. have we reached _ withdrawing from some events. have we reached and are we in a phase in which _ we reached and are we in a phase in which broad — we reached and are we in a phase in which broad advice rather than detailed, — which broad advice rather than detailed, because you put it should do this, _ detailed, because you put it should do this, shouldn't do that, restrictions on people, is that where — restrictions on people, is that where we _ restrictions on people, is that where we are? is that the right way to be _ where we are? is that the right way to be thinking about this now? is to be thinking about this now? is where to be thinking about this now? where we to be thinking about this now? is where we are now, but if we we were in a situation where it looked as if the boosters were not going to be as effective against the disease and transmission and we were facing the kind of situation that we were talking about in the last exchange, then ministers are clearly going to have to consider what else needs to be done, and i will go back to this concept, the ladder of intervention. how far you go up that, the further you go up the more damage you will do in other areas. and ministers have to balance this. but balancing those, the bigger the threat, the further up you probably will have to go. so what we are is ministers make a decision what we know at the moment. if the information comes and is not reassuring, that will tempt to another. and that it is very much the way the prime minister and ministers are looking at this. let us consider the optimistic side of this, we get through omicron quicker than we might have thought and the spike comes down quickly. what would trigger the exit from the current set of restrictions on the advice you and others are giving? i advice you and others are giving? i think we have seen before and most recently in the summer of this year, a very clear de—escalation of advice even though there was still some residual risk, we accepted that and some people criticise that. but that was the decision of ministers and was the decision of ministers and was perfectly acceptable as logic made that a reasonable thing to do. so ministers are always in a position where they can go up and down as the facts change. that very much is the way of the approach ministers have sensibly taken. as we go on, i am cautious about making policy on the basis that everything might go right. that is not a sensible basis on which to make decisions. we have to look at a range of possibilities rather than assuming everything will fall ra. that is not the implication... brute that is not the implication... we will be back _ that is not the implication... we will be back to professor chris witty in just a moment but it has been reported that the queen has cancelled her traditional pre—christmas family month which was due to take place next week. it is understood the decision was made as a precaution, suggesting it could put too many people's christmas arrangements at risk if that lunch went ahead so very much in line with the calls were hearing from the prime minister to socialise carefully this christmas and with professor chris witty who we heard moments ago, england's chief medical officer saying we should prioritise which social events we attend. so the queen choosing to cancel her traditional pre—christmas family lunch next week. let us return to the commons health select committee where professor chris witty is answering questions about the spread of omicron. there is a longer exit, the situation where it is not an omicron specific vaccine based on what the manufacturers say and that is the exit strategy. but i think there are so many unknowns at the moment i am very confident as you implied there will be an exit strategy when it will be an exit strategy when it will be an exit strategy when it will be on how quickly we reach it depends on a lot of factors we currently don't now fundamentally is where we are at the moment in time. will you have the agility to de—escalate if the results of the various— de—escalate if the results of the various factors that you mentioned going _ various factors that you mentioned going the — various factors that you mentioned going the right direction? will you be able _ going the right direction? will you be able to— going the right direction? will you be able to intervene and stand down your advice — be able to intervene and stand down your advice to minimise social contacts— your advice to minimise social contacts for example to advise that the plan _ contacts for example to advise that the plan b — contacts for example to advise that the plan b restrictions should be stood _ the plan b restrictions should be stood down before the time that they expire _ stood down before the time that they expire at _ stood down before the time that they expire at the end ofjanuary? are you set— expire at the end ofjanuary? are you set up— expire at the end ofjanuary? are you set up to do that? expire at the end of january? are you set up to do that?— you set up to do that? well, to be really clear. _ you set up to do that? well, to be really clear, you _ you set up to do that? well, to be really clear, you know— you set up to do that? well, to be really clear, you know this - you set up to do that? well, to be really clear, you know this but - really clear, you know this but i want to be clear of the record, decisions on anything that involves those decisions are up to ministers, not to me. i will give advice, sage will give advice formally and we give data, ministers take decisions. in terms of my own advice, if i put more stringent advice to the general public because of omicron, we have less stringent advice before omicron arrived. the public one as to keep them safe and they want us not to at them safe and they want us not to at the same time over regulate to appoint where things are getting back to more normal situation. of course we will turn up the dial and turnit course we will turn up the dial and turn it down as necessary and there are people in government rightly arguing for the very strong economic implications for doing anything more than we need to do and it is always about balance, all the way through this, all about balance in terms of advice on social directions. you are aaivin advice on social directions. you are giving advice _ advice on social directions. you are giving advice directly _ advice on social directions. you are giving advice directly to _ advice on social directions. you are giving advice directly to the - advice on social directions. you are giving advice directly to the public. giving advice directly to the public and i don't criticise that, yet interested in your views and respect your views onjudgment on interested in your views and respect your views on judgment on this. you have sage advice people to prioritise their social contacts. this is advice you're giving directly but generally in the past, he made the point to my committee that you advise on the medical aspects and then ministers have to wait in the balance the consequences for society, for the economy and come up with recommendations that brings medical advice bringing the consequences further together. if you're giving that advice direct to the public then that process is not taking place, is it? therefore how do you ensure it is not one—sided advice, will you have the agility to adjust your advice that is out there if as we hope eventually it will be appropriate to do so? i am if as we hope eventually it will be appropriate to do so? i am extremely clear on what — appropriate to do so? i am extremely clear on what i _ appropriate to do so? i am extremely clear on what i think _ appropriate to do so? i am extremely clear on what i think the _ appropriate to do so? i am extremely clear on what i think the role - appropriate to do so? i am extremely clear on what i think the role of - appropriate to do so? i am extremely clear on what i think the role of an i clear on what i think the role of an adviser is, an independent adviser, and what i consider the paramount role of ministers. but from the very beginning, since the 18505, chief medical officers have always given advice to the general public but ministers reserved to themselves anything to do with the law and balancing against the economy. this is advice any chief medical officer i5 advice any chief medical officer would have given and i do not think any minister thinks i am treading on their dose on this one, this is my job but i also consider questions about things like further measures, those are very much the minister's so it is drawing the line between those two, the expectations between medical officers and medical advisers, they can talk as a doctor independently and give advice as long as they do not stray into the job which is specifically for ministers. job which is specifically for ministers-— job which is specifically for ministers. , . , ., ., ministers. very final question from me about that _ ministers. very final question from me about that advice _ ministers. very final question from me about that advice you - ministers. very final question from me about that advice you have - ministers. very final question from | me about that advice you have been giving _ me about that advice you have been giving in _ me about that advice you have been giving in the last day on the issue of with— giving in the last day on the issue of with it — giving in the last day on the issue of with it. isn't the fundamental problem — of with it. isn't the fundamental problem that people personally feel safer now if they have had two or three _ safer now if they have had two or three jobs— safer now if they have had two or three jobs but the nhs is actually more _ three jobs but the nhs is actually more at _ three jobs but the nhs is actually more at risk because of the nature of omicron — more at risk because of the nature of omicron and that we have for million — of omicron and that we have for million or— of omicron and that we have for million or so unvaccinated? how do you persuade people who have had three _ you persuade people who have had three jobs— you persuade people who have had three jobs to be more cautious? -- it three jobs to be more cautious? -- 4 million. i started _ three jobs to be more cautious? -- 4 million. i started the _ three jobs to be more cautious? -- 4 million. i started the whole - million. i started the whole pandemic with high confidence in the ability to see risk and make sensible politicaljudgments and sensible political judgments and that sensible politicaljudgments and that has only strengthened over time so actually my experience has been all the way through and what people do demonstrate this in the polling demonstrates this, people take these things very seriously. they accept if they have had three doses and a booster they are at lower risk but people will still take sensible precautions and i am very confident in the ability of people to say for the benefit of everyone around me, the benefit of everyone around me, the old people i come into contact with, i will be more cautious over a period. these numbers are clearly going up very very fast. in answer to both of your questions, it would be very odd to reduce that advice when numbers are spiralling up, the time to consider reducing is when numbers are consistently coming down. if people look at the data and think i want to reduce the risk me to my family and myself and i will take sensible precautions at this point in time. take sensible precautions at this point in time-— take sensible precautions at this oint in time. . ,, i. ., , point in time. thank you, professor whi and point in time. thank you, professor whitty and doctors, _ point in time. thank you, professor whitty and doctors, you _ point in time. thank you, professor whitty and doctors, you have - point in time. thank you, professor whitty and doctors, you have been| whitty and doctors, you have been very generous with your time. we wish all a safe and happy christmas. thank you very much indeed. paint wish all a safe and happy christmas. thank you very much indeed. point of order. thank you very much indeed. point of order- thank — thank you very much indeed. point of order. thank you _ thank you very much indeed. point of order. thank you very _ thank you very much indeed. point of order. thank you very much. - thank you very much indeed. point of order. thank you very much. jeremy i order. thank you very much. jeremy hunt, the chair _ order. thank you very much. jeremy hunt, the chair of _ order. thank you very much. jeremy hunt, the chair of the _ order. thank you very much. jeremy hunt, the chair of the select - hunt, the chair of the select committee wrapping things up. we have been hearing professor chris whitty giving evidence to mp5 since half past ten this morning about the spread of omicron. at a news conference at downing street yesterday he urged people to be cautious about socialising before christmas. professor whitty said the uk could surpass the peak of people admitted to hospital. he told the committee it is possible because it is going to be very concentrated, evenif is going to be very concentrated, even if it is milder because it is concentrated over a short period of time. asked about socialising, he said it was sensible to cut down on social events that might be less important to you. he underlined the importance of getting a boosterjab and warned that even if the boosters do hold a lot of people will fall ill simultaneously. the doubling rate will slow _ ill simultaneously. the doubling rate will slow down _ ill simultaneously. the doubling rate will slow down for - ill simultaneously. the doubling rate will slow down for two - ill simultaneously. the doubling - rate will slow down for two reasons, the first is people are taking sensible precautions, it is clear they are taking sensible precautions and that will help slow the double rate down. the point we were making about prioritising busy interactions, the government advice about working from home, they are all designed to slow this down, to buy this time to get this through the system. a second point, the number of people already infected and have immunity eitherfrom posting orfrom omicron itself will mean that the group of people it can no infect is getting smaller and that will also slow down until the point at reaches its peak. susan hopkins is an adviser. the release numbers that were released yesterday are 15 but we are constantly working on data numbers to release that and we will release more numbers this afternoon. the real numbers _ more numbers this afternoon. the real numbers will be bigger than that, _ real numbers will be bigger than that, just — real numbers will be bigger than that, just to be clear. to real numbers will be bigger than that, just to be clear.— that, 'ust to be clear. to give us as that, just to be clear. to give us as members _ that, just to be clear. to give us as members of _ that, just to be clear. to give us as members of the _ that, just to be clear. to give us as members of the public- that, just to be clear. to give us as members of the public and i that, just to be clear. to give us i as members of the public and idea that, just to be clear. to give us - as members of the public and idea of timescale, do you expect to have reliable data before christmas, in a week or it will it be january before week or it will it be january before we really know the answer to that question? i we really know the answer to that cuestion? ~ ., . question? i think the earliest we will have reliable _ question? i think the earliest we will have reliable data _ question? i think the earliest we will have reliable data is - question? i think the earliest we will have reliable data is the - question? i think the earliest we i will have reliable data is the week between christmas and new year and probably early january. between christmas and new year and probably early january._ probably early january. doctor susan hokins. probably early january. doctor susan hopkins. earlier— probably early january. doctor susan hopkins. earlier in _ probably early january. doctor susan hopkins. earlier in the _ probably early january. doctor susan hopkins. earlier in the house - probably early january. doctor susan hopkins. earlier in the house of- hopkins. earlier in the house of commons, john glen gave this response to the situation for the hospitality sector in the uk amid a rise in coronavirus cases. last year when we put _ rise in coronavirus cases. last year when we put in _ rise in coronavirus cases. last year when we put in place _ rise in coronavirus cases. last year when we put in place the _ rise in coronavirus cases. last year when we put in place the bounce i rise in coronavirus cases. last year i when we put in place the bounce back loans, it was the shadow chancellor at the time who specifically engaged constructively with the chancellor to agree the basis for those loans. we have continued to work constructively throughout on a range of interventions for multiple sectors. we put in a package of measures at the budget offering additional support and just yesterday the covid additional relief fund provides an additional £1.5 billion those that are in the supply chain to deal with some of the additional challenges. but of course the government recognises the additional pressures that these measures and this strength the virus brings. of course we will be engaging carefully and listen carefully to those business representatives this afternoon. france is introducing tight restrictions to travellers to the uk. hugh schofield reports from paris. . uk. hugh schofield reports from paris. , . paris. there will be much tighter restrictions _ paris. there will be much tighter restrictions from _ paris. there will be much tighter restrictions from midnight - paris. there will be much tighter restrictions from midnight friday into saturday. they cover two things. — into saturday. they cover two things, restrictions on who can come into france _ things, restrictions on who can come into france and there is a long list which _ into france and there is a long list which we — into france and there is a long list which we have seen before of what constitutes nonessential travel and essential _ constitutes nonessential travel and essential travel. basically, constitutes nonessential travel and essentialtravel. basically, if essential travel. basically, if you're — essentialtravel. basically, if you're coming just for fun to see the sights. — you're coming just for fun to see the sights, you cannot. not for work either— the sights, you cannot. not for work either unless it is very compelling. if either unless it is very compelling. if you _ either unless it is very compelling. if you are — either unless it is very compelling. if you are a — either unless it is very compelling. if you are a national, you can come, if you _ if you are a national, you can come, if you are _ if you are a national, you can come, if you are resident in france, you can come — if you are resident in france, you can come but you will have to prove all of _ can come but you will have to prove all of this— can come but you will have to prove all of this with the authorities. you have — all of this with the authorities. you have to register on a website before _ you have to register on a website before you — you have to register on a website before you come over so that is one side _ before you come over so that is one side the _ before you come over so that is one side. the other side as testing has been _ side. the other side as testing has been ramped up, you will have to have _ been ramped up, you will have to have a _ been ramped up, you will have to have a test— been ramped up, you will have to have a test done within 21 hours or less than— have a test done within 21 hours or less than 21— have a test done within 21 hours or less than 21 hours before you come. that can _ less than 21 hours before you come. that can be — less than 21 hours before you come. that can be a — less than 21 hours before you come. that can be a lateral flow test or a pcr test _ that can be a lateral flow test or a pcr test and when you come you have to self—isolate at an address you - ive to self—isolate at an address you give to _ to self—isolate at an address you give to the — to self—isolate at an address you give to the authorities on this website — give to the authorities on this website you can test yourself after 48 hours _ website you can test yourself after 48 hours and if you are negative then _ 48 hours and if you are negative then you're _ 48 hours and if you are negative then you're free to move about. otherwise — then you're free to move about. otherwise she would have to stay in isolation _ otherwise she would have to stay in isolation for several days. it looks like the _ isolation for several days. it looks like the french will be strict about enforcing — like the french will be strict about enforcing quarantine this time. in the past — enforcing quarantine this time. in the past they have often said it is voluntary— the past they have often said it is voluntary quarantine, implying they will not _ voluntary quarantine, implying they will not check up on you but it looks — will not check up on you but it looks like _ will not check up on you but it looks like they will check up on this one — looks like they will check up on this one so it is a mirror on what is happening in britain. if you come to britain— is happening in britain. if you come to britain from france it is similar. _ to britain from france it is similar, you have to isolate for 48 hours. _ similar, you have to isolate for 48 hours. test — similar, you have to isolate for 48 hours, test yourself. so they are ramping — hours, test yourself. so they are ramping up _ hours, test yourself. so they are ramping up on the restrictions. hugh in paris. five children have died and five others are injured after falling from a bouncy castle that was blown more than 30 feet into the air in australia. police said two girls and two boys died at the scene and another died in hospital later, with five others in a critical condition following the incident, which took place during an end—of—year party in devonport, in tasmania. the australian prime minister, scott morrison, said it was "heart breaking". the events that have occurred today in devonport, in tasmania, are just shattering. they are just unthinkably heartbreaking. and young children, on a fun day out together with their families and it five children have died and five others are injured after falling and young children, on a fun day out together with their families and it turns to such horrific tragedy. at this time of year. itjust breaks your heart. 0ur correspondent shyma khalil is in sydney. she has more on the investigation that will now follow really, questions are being asked about how this happened exactly, what was anchoring that bouncy castle to the ground? why it was lifted as high as it had? also, the weather conditions of that day. we haven't heard that they were extraordinary conditions of dangerous conditions. they were fine until that gust of wind lifted the bouncy castle in the air. we also heard from the tasmanian authorities say that with that happening, the focus is going to be on the families, of course, of those children, on the school community and on the first responders who were first at the scene and have seen this tragedy happen in that primary school. european union leaders are holding their last summit of the year in brussels. coronavirus and energy prices are on the agenda. but, proceedings are likely to be dominated by the increasing fear that russia may be preparing to invade ukraine , something which russia has denied. the president of lithuania has said the eu has to do "everything" to prevent a possible russian invasion of ukraine. i think we have to do everything that is in our hands to prevent the worst scenario, which, and unfortunately we cannot exclude. this scenario is possible. military intervention into the territory of ukraine. i think we have enough tools in order to stop russia from its aggressive behaviour. first of all, we have to talk about sectorial and also economic sanctions which are possible. we have been hearing professor chris whitty answer questions from the commons health and social care this morning about the spread of omicron and of course the government has chosen to introduce some restrictions again. borisjohnson denied he was imposing a lockdown by stealth. speaking to broadcasters, the prime minister said the situation was "very different" from last year. borisjohnson denied he was imposing what we are saying and we are all saying the same thing is that omicron are spreading very fast and we have got to be very cautious and thatis we have got to be very cautious and that is why we are implementing plan b, but also making sure that we get everybody boosted as fast as we possibly can and that is what is going on here at this incredible vaccinate centre in ramsgate. what chris whitty and dire saying, what we are all saying, we don't want to make your choices for you about your social life. we are not closing things but we are saying people should be cautious and they should think about their activities in the run—up to christmas. nobody wants to get omicron and be unwell and be forced to isolate but the fastest route back to normality is for everybody to get boosted now. haste everybody to get boosted now. have ou everybody to get boosted now. have you cancelled _ everybody to get boosted now. have you cancelled any — everybody to get boosted now. have you cancelled any events in the last few days? i you cancelled any events in the last few da s? . you cancelled any events in the last few da s? , ., ~' you cancelled any events in the last few da s? , ., ,, . ., few days? i will be working flat out as ou can few days? i will be working flat out as you can imagine _ few days? i will be working flat out as you can imagine but _ few days? i will be working flat out as you can imagine but what - few days? i will be working flat out as you can imagine but what we . as you can imagine but what we are saying is we are not closing things down, we are not asking people to cancel things. what we are saying is that people will understandably not want to catch covid in the next few days or ever. the sensible thing to do is get boosted now and exercise caution, that is all we are saying. you have to understand some people will be stressed about christmas gatherings, hospitality are complaining about mass cancellations, is this lockdown by stealth? ., , , . . stealth? no, because what we are seeinu as stealth? no, because what we are seeing as this _ stealth? no, because what we are seeing as this is _ stealth? no, because what we are seeing as this is very _ stealth? no, because what we are seeing as this is very different - seeing as this is very different from last year, we have is the additional protection of the vaccines and the ability to test so if you want to do something, you want to go to an event or a party then the sensible thing to do as if thatis then the sensible thing to do as if that is a priority, the sensible thing to do is get a test to make sure you are being cautious but we are not saying we want to cancel stuff. we are not looking stuff down and the fastest route back to normality is get boosted. yesterday we saw the highest _ normality is get boosted. yesterday we saw the highest ever— normality is get boosted. yesterday we saw the highest ever number- normality is get boosted. yesterday we saw the highest ever number of| we saw the highest ever number of covid tests yet we still have minimal restrictions in place, what has to happen for you to integrate further restrictions? brute has to happen for you to integrate further restrictions?— further restrictions? we are doing two thin . s further restrictions? we are doing two things at _ further restrictions? we are doing two things at once, _ further restrictions? we are doing two things at once, we _ further restrictions? we are doing two things at once, we are - two things at once, we are implementing plan b which has some sensible restrictions, it is balanced and proportionate and it reflects the balance of risk and uncertainty that we currently have about omicron but we are adding to that this incredibly fast booster roll—out. here in ramsgate, just in the centre, they have gone up four times in the number of vaccines they are delivering every day, they have delivered just over 1000, almost 4000 a day. that is incredible, you're thing up and down the country, you're seeing people understanding the importance the protection can give you and they are coming forward to get boosted knives. ., , ., , coming forward to get boosted knives. ., , coming forward to get boosted knives. . , , knives. can you see you will be takin: knives. can you see you will be taking the _ knives. can you see you will be taking the same _ knives. can you see you will be taking the same approach - knives. can you see you will be taking the same approach if. knives. can you see you will be i taking the same approach if your knives. can you see you will be - taking the same approach if your own party is not on—site? i thrill taking the same approach if your own party is not on-site?_ party is not on-site? i will do all i have to party is not on-site? i will do all i have to to _ party is not on-site? i will do all i have to to protect _ party is not on-site? i will do all i have to to protect the - i have to to protect the public, thatis i have to to protect the public, that is always clear. we have talked to our site and advisers and we are in a very difficult position as regards to the vaccination programme from where we were last year and what we are saying to people as there is a lot of omicron around, be careful, exercise caution if you want to avoid isolation and getting on well over christmas. implement plan b but get boosted now as the fastest route back to normality because the booster does give you an excellent level of protection and the plan is to offer everybody in the plan is to offer everybody in the country who is eligible booster by the end of the year and the speed at which this is happening here in ramsgate is absolutely amazing and i really pay tribute to all the volunteers, the doctors, everybody here. it is an amazing spirit and energy that they are showing. just a energy that they are showing. just a cou - le energy that they are showing. just a coule of energy that they are showing. just a couple of regional— energy that they are showing. just a couple of regional questions. - energy that they are showing. just a couple of regional questions. there we go. britain's oldest brewery broths has said the hospitality sector is a zombie economy, because of current government advice, what financial support will be offering? we have kept businesses going with more than 412 in pounds worth of support and we will continue to support and we will continue to support business with the covid like recovery loan, with business rate reductions. with vat reductions. the best thing we can do is make sure we get back to normality as fast as possible by getting boosted now but they are asking for more support. the best thing, we are offering a package, we already have measures in place supporting businesses through business rate relief, through vat reductions, the loans i have described, all that is there but what we are also saying is we want to keep businesses going, keep them open as we have done for a long time now through the vaccination programme. the best way to get back to normality is to get boosted now. you will have seen the news of france banning uk visitors from saturday, not a good look suggesting we had unsafe right now. lots of families now unable to travel and see their loved ones for christmas. you said christmas would be vastly different share, it does not look like that now? i different share, it does not look like that now?— like that now? i effectively disagree — like that now? i effectively disagree with _ like that now? i effectively disagree with you - like that now? i effectively disagree with you because | like that now? i effectively i disagree with you because we like that now? i effectively - disagree with you because we have got a situation now which is totally different. we have got the economy open. we have businesses open, or we are saying to people as exercise caution, think about all the steps you can take to minimise your own risk. and get boosted now. the prime minister speaking _ risk. and get boosted now. the prime minister speaking a _ risk. and get boosted now. the prime minister speaking a short _ risk. and get boosted now. the prime minister speaking a short time - risk. and get boosted now. the prime minister speaking a short time ago . minister speaking a short time ago in ramsgate. it's little more than a week until christmas — and the usual excitement is mounting. many children have sent their lists to santa. and the grown ups are shopping for that perfect present. let's hope they are anyway. covid has obviously had an impact — but there is one place where the festive spirit can never be extinguished — the bbc�*s tim allman explains. # it's beginning to look a lot like christmas # everywhere you go...# in this part of finland it really is christmas every day. this place in lapland calls itself the official home town of santa claus and he really is honestly, truly the real thing. notjust a man in a fake beard. father christmas, hoping this year of all years, he can bring some joy to the world. i have been hearing worrying news around the globe about the well—being and coping of children and young people. now it's time to turn these worries into plenty of goodwill. visitor numbers obviously took a big hit in the last two years as the pandemic took hold, santa's business representative says people are coming back but they have to take precautions. translation: the guests are required to have corona passports when they arrive in finland. we ask all our guests to show their corona passport at the reception desk and after that, they are free to take part in all the activities. but, of course, the most important people here are the children. do you like santa? te gusta santa claus? si! in a few days' time, after the dry run, father christmas will be back on his travels and a much bigger sleigh. his ambition, he says, to make this christmas a happy and unforgettable one. tim allman, bbc news. now it's time for a look at the weather with matt taylor. hello there. i hope you like the colour grey because it is going to be the dominant sky colour as we go through the next few days across the uk. lots of cloud in place, stubbornly remaining all the way into the weekend for most. it will be largely dry although over the next few hours we continue to see a bit of rain and drizzle across the north west of scotland, particularly lewis, sutherland, orkney and shetland. where we saw the frost this morning and the sunshine, well, that continues for some, eastern scotland and eastern counties of england. for some, where you started with sunshine, the cloud amounts will build. reasonably bright too compared with yesterday across some parts of west cornwall as well. a mild day for all. temperatures still in double figures. into this evening and overnight, the cloud is going to barely shift for most. maybe a few breaks in the english channel, eastern scotland, north—east england and it's here where you are most likely to see the return of the touch of frost into the morning, one or two pockets of mist or fog. most will have a mild start to friday morning. but friday, high pressure is in charge, and just notice as we go through into the weekend, the high pressure remains in charge. essentially a story of what you have got, you will largely keep. plenty of cloud in place for friday making for a rather dull day. best of the breaks down through the english channel, channel islands particularly, maybe parts of cornwall. also north—east of scotland and some in north—east england could see the sunshine come through. after a chilly start, it may be a little bit cooler than we will see through today. elsewhere, temperatures, nine to 11 celsius. a touch above where we should be for the time of year. you'll notice this weekend, as well as sticking with the cloud, a largely dry story, things will turn that little bit cooler. a cloudy day for most again on saturday, the best of the sunshine will be towards the far south west, also across the north east of scotland, particularly over the hills. it might even be warmer in the grampians than it will be at lower level sites. temperature starting to drop away a little bit and they will drop further as we go into sunday. more of a breeze on that eastern coast, a lot more cloud in place. not a huge amount of sunshine, best of which probably across orkney and shetland later in the day and more of us in single figure temperatures. but it does turn colder as we head into christmas week. an interesting week ahead. if you are looking for something white for your christmas run—up, the cold air mayjust bring one or two wintry showers in eastern parts. but we could see a fightback of mild air from the atlantic, and where those two clash, it depends where it is, you could see a mixture of rain, sleet and snow. of course, we'll keep you updated. this is bbc news. the headlines... the country's chief medical officer says the uk could surpass previous records of people admitted to hospital with covid—19. what we shouldn't assume is that if we got the same number going in the front door, that necessarily translates into the same numbers in hospital in an icu at some point in the new year. it will be the new year before we have reliable data on the spread of the omicron variant, according to a leading health official. with the earliest that we will have reliable data is the week between christmas and new year and probably early january. christmas and new year and probably early january. the queen has cancelled her traditional pre—christmas family party next week. it is understood the decision was a precaution, in case it put too many people's christmas arrangements at risk. uk tourists are to be banned from france — from saturday only french citizens or brits who live there will be allowed to enter the country. but this time hauliers are exempt. as the virus continues to spread — business groups ask for more government help as customers cancel bookings. and can you see it? well, this is a brand new picture of a polar bear cub has been born at at the highland wildlife park in scotland. england's chief medical officer has warned that the previous maximum daily number of people admitted to hospital — 4,500, seen injanuary — could be exceeded. speaking to a committee of mp5, chris whitty also said that omicron could peak quite quickly, and that there is still a debate about whether omicron could could inflict a milder version of coronavirus. we'll hear more from chris whitty in a moment, but let's take a look at today's developments. the queen has cancelled her traditional pre—christmas family lunch next week. it is understood the decision was a precaution with a source suggesting it could put too many people's christmas arrangements at risk if it went ahead. france puts new restrictions on uk travellers, effectively banning tourists. business leaders have called for support for struggling firms as omicron's spread hits consumer confidence. cases of omicron have been doubling every two to three days. addressing the health committee, professor whitty explained how the numbers will start decreasing. the doubling rate will slow down for two reasons. the first is that people are taking sensible precautions. it's very clear they are taking very sensible precautions, and that itself will help to slow the doubling rate down. and the points we were making about prioritising the interactions that matter most to you, the man's advice of working from home, they are all designed to help slow this down particularly at the beginning. to buy us time to get through the boosting. and then at a certain point the number of people who have already been infected and have got immunity, either from the boosting orfrom omicron itself will mean that the group of people it can now infect is getting smaller, and that will also slow it down, and at a certain point that reaches a peak. professor chris whitty. we will be hearing more from him very shortly. the bank of england is due to announce its latest decision on interest rates. with inflation soaring to its highest level in a decade, it had been widely expected to raise rates from their historic low of 0.1%. that historic low has been there for quite some time, andy.— that historic low has been there for quite some time, andy. rates went down to back _ quite some time, andy. rates went down to back in _ quite some time, andy. rates went down to back in march _ quite some time, andy. rates went down to back in march 2009 - quite some time, andy. rates went down to back in march 2009 and i quite some time, andy. rates went i down to back in march 2009 and they state that those emergency levels. they wrote a little bit before the pandemic and then they drop to a new record low of 0.1%. although it has been expected that the bank of england would raise interest rates at some point soon, it wasn't expected at this meeting. in the city they were giving odds of about four to one against the bank of england raising interest rates, but we have just had this news they are going ahead to raise them to not .25% as of today. and that is a surprise and it is a response to upward inflationary pressure that has been building. we had the highest consumer prices index rising ten years that was reported this week and we know that this inflationary pressure coming down the line from global increases, commodity prices, owing to the reopening of the global economy this year, there has been lots of demand, lots of activity and supply of things like petrol has been keeping up. that is why you have got a record petrol price. one point 45.8 p. it has to look at what it thinks it is going to happen to inflation in the next two years and it is making a judgment whether to turn rates back to something more like normal, which before the financial crisis was round about three or 4%. this move today was unexpected. most in the city expected the bank of england to wait until next year, perhaps february or march before they started raising interest rates because we still don't know how the omicron variant has affected the labour market, the economy, and it seems like the economy at the same time as we are getting inflation is slowing down. in the seven they called it stagflation. that, combined with the inflation we have right now make some people think that the bank of england would wait. but clearly they have decided today that they should not wait. hagar but clearly they have decided today that they should not wait. how much alarm will this _ that they should not wait. how much alarm will this cause _ that they should not wait. how much alarm will this cause generally, - that they should not wait. how much alarm will this cause generally, not i alarm will this cause generally, not just for businesses but for general members of the public, people with mortgages, credit card debt? it is mortgages, credit card debt? it is interestin: mortgages, credit card debt? it s interesting you say that. there is a bit of a myth that goes around about how interest rate rises are for people with mortgages. in fact, a third of the population don't own their own home, they rent. and another third, although they own their own home don't have a mortgage. it is mostly older people who paid off their mortgages long ago. the remaining third, less than ago. the remaining third, less than a quarter have variable rate mortgages. so overall it is less than 10% of the population who are exposed to an interest rate rise right now. those people are unfortunate and are particularly unfortunate and are particularly unfortunate if they took out a huge mortgage recently to pay these very inflated house prices that kept on rising, even through the pandemic. so it will affect some people badly but think on the other side about the people who have had savings where the interest rates are less than inflation, so they have been drinking in real terms for most of the last 13 years. abs, drinking in real terms for most of the last 13 years.— the last 13 years. a surprise, not exected the last 13 years. a surprise, not expected just — the last 13 years. a surprise, not expected just yet. _ the last 13 years. a surprise, not expected just yet. we _ the last 13 years. a surprise, not expected just yet. we will - the last 13 years. a surprise, not expected just yet. we will have i the last 13 years. a surprise, not - expected just yet. we will have more on that throughout the day. thank you. 0ur health correspondent nick is here. it is spreading fast, but so little is really known about this. they don't know what they are dealing with. that's right, chris whitty is kept stressing that. if you look at their modelling of hospital admissions they show that the peak from the omicron wave could be approaching double what was seen previously, the 4500 figure, but it also could be half that level. in the show set there is a large uncertainty about what will happen. we have heard suggestions that the omicron variant may be causing more milder illness, and there is logic in that in terms of reinfection saw infections postvaccination are likely to be milder. but we know cases are going up milder. but we know cases are going up and they are going up quickly. so thatis up and they are going up quickly. so that is why there is that uncertainty and those admissions will make a big difference. another important point he made is that admissions this time round are very different to last winter. the vaccination, and improvement in treatment means patients who are admitted spend less time in hospital. so the overall numbers in hospital. so the overall numbers in hospital could be very different, even with the same level of admissions. ii even with the same level of admissions.— even with the same level of admissions. . ., , ., ., admissions. if omicron turns out to be very infectious _ admissions. if omicron turns out to be very infectious and _ admissions. if omicron turns out to be very infectious and there - admissions. if omicron turns out to be very infectious and there are - admissions. if omicron turns out to be very infectious and there are a i be very infectious and there are a lot of people who are catching it, evenif lot of people who are catching it, even if the symptoms are mild, by virtue of the fact that so many people might get it, then hospitalisations would rise, is at thinking? hospitalisations would rise, is at thinkin: ? ,,. hospitalisations would rise, is at thinkin: ? . ., thinking? indeed. sate the omicron variant is causing _ thinking? indeed. sate the omicron variant is causing half _ thinking? indeed. sate the omicron variant is causing half the _ thinking? indeed. sate the omicron variant is causing half the rate - thinking? indeed. sate the omicron variant is causing half the rate of. variant is causing half the rate of serious illness. for every 100 infections, half of them end up seriously ill. but they increase fourfold, you have double the number of admissions, so that is why a fast spreading variant, even if it is milder, is still the problem. clearly, and this was appointed professor, chris whitty made this morning, it is about trying to balance that harms between more restrictions and the hands of the virus could cause. and he described it as approaching a hairpin bend. we were accelerating away from the delta variant and suddenly we were confronted with this sharp bend. and we don't know what the threat is on the other side. so we have to slow down and that is why he talks about prioritising their contact in the lead up to christmas. just slow down, take stock and as we get closer to the bend we will be able to see what is round the other side. and this is where he talks about finding out about how much serious illness will be caused, and when we know that we can adjust to that. we will be able to accelerate away again. will be able to accelerate away aaain. ., ~' ,, will be able to accelerate away aaain. ., ~' , will be able to accelerate away aaain. ., , . the queen has cancelled her traditional pre christmas family lunch. it's understood the decision is a precaution with a source suggesting it could put too many people's christmas arrangements at risk if it went ahead. let's speak to our royal correspondent, nicholas witchell. everyone always twitches when the queen cancel something. yes. everyone always twitches when the queen cancel something.— everyone always twitches when the queen cancel something. yes, but no treat queen cancel something. yes, but no great surprise — queen cancel something. yes, but no great surprise i _ queen cancel something. yes, but no great surprise i would _ queen cancel something. yes, but no great surprise i would have _ queen cancel something. yes, but no great surprise i would have to - queen cancel something. yes, but no great surprise i would have to say. i great surprise i would have to say. i think this decision was inevitable. it is important to stress that this is their christmas lunch for the extended family that the queen would normally have at buckingham palace, this year it would have been at windsor castle early next week. this is the extended family which includes all the cousins, the klosters and the kent and the others who don't get invited up to sandringham. so for them, for the extended family, and normally 40 people would normally attend this, that is at the event that has been cancelled. it is described by buckingham palace as a precautionary measure. it is found to be putting too many people plasma christmas is at risk if it went ahead. i think there is a feeling that it ahead. i think there is a feeling thatitis ahead. i think there is a feeling that it is the right thing to do for all concerned and the queen will be wanting to be seen to be setting an example. goodness knows how many different households would have been coming together for this lunch for the extended royal family. coming together for this lunch for the extended royalfamily. there coming together for this lunch for the extended royal family. there are quite a few of them. but it is important to say that at the time of writing, the arrangements for the immediate family to go to sandringham for their christmas there, those are still in place. but clearly the queen and her advisers will be watching the situation closely. will be watching the situation closel . ., ~ will be watching the situation closel. . ,, will be watching the situation closel. ., ~' , will be watching the situation closel . . ,, , . �*, closely. thank you very much. let's talk further — closely. thank you very much. let's talk further about _ closely. thank you very much. let's talk further about the _ closely. thank you very much. let's talk further about the spread - closely. thank you very much. let's talk further about the spread of - talk further about the spread of omicron. joining me now is athony costello, professor of global health at university college london and a member of independent sage. good to see you. how fast do you believe omicron is spreading? we used to talk a lot about the art rate with other variants, the reproduction rate.— rate with other variants, the reproduction rate. well, it is exploding- _ reproduction rate. well, it is exploding. we _ reproduction rate. well, it is exploding. we only - reproduction rate. well, it is exploding. we only really i reproduction rate. well, it is. exploding. we only really knew reproduction rate. well, it is- exploding. we only really knew about this three weeks ago and it is already catching up with delta in this country. and the art value is various reports, but all seem to haveit various reports, but all seem to have it at four or above. it is doubling every two days right now and so there are only ten days, nine days to christmas. there could be four or five doubling is over the next ten days which is incredibly fast. the uk health security agency said it is three times more transmissible within households than delta and five times more likely to re—infect people than delta. we know from three studies published a couple of days ago that waning immunity means that after a second dose, particularly in elderly people, the immunity wears off after about six months or declines very sharply. so, as chris whitty said yesterday, everything we know about this virus is bad. the remaining uncertainty is, is it milder and what would be the impact on hospitalisations and deaths? so we need to watch hospital figures incredibly carefully over the next seven to ten days to see exactly what is happening. it is seven to ten days to see exactly what is happening.— what is happening. it is a very interesting — what is happening. it is a very interesting point _ what is happening. it is a very interesting point that - what is happening. it is a very. interesting point that professor chris whitty was making, encouraging pregnant women to get vaccinated and us to prioritise our social events that we attend. we will talk more in a moment. ijust need to say goodbye to our viewers on bbc two. you talked about this concern about waning immunity and the importance of a booster. but restrictions and decisions by government would be very different, wouldn't they, if it turned out that this variant or whatever comes next get round the vaccines that we currently have? exactly. the booster programme has been impressive. we have got up to about 25 million boosted, but that leaves many millions left who have not been boosted stop we don't know what the impact is going to be on the older population, although boosters are pretty good. so there is a lot of uncertainty right now and chris whitty is right to be very cautious. we are saying that the absolute priority is to try and protect christmas, and so we are suggesting that we have a circuit break right now going back to what was step two of the government's spring road map. that means you keep shops open, you keep retail outdoor hospitality open, but then you have to close indoor hospitality and entertainment, and we try and stop people mixing between households right now. and then loosen that up for the christmas and holiday period. allied to that, you have to do have financial support. right now businesses are crying out and this is a massive time for hospitality. and many others. and that workforce effects. i heard somebody thing this morning that 10% of staff in hospitals are off and isolating, many care homes. this is affecting all industries, school, hospitality. and they need urgent financial support. the chancellor needs to think about how he reduces business rates or restore the universal credit supplement. there is still uncertainty but preparing early is best and we must try and protect christmas at all costs. but best and we must try and protect christmas at all costs.— best and we must try and protect christmas at all costs. but then the other side of— christmas at all costs. but then the other side of it, _ christmas at all costs. but then the other side of it, we _ christmas at all costs. but then the other side of it, we could _ christmas at all costs. but then the other side of it, we could be - christmas at all costs. but then the other side of it, we could be in - christmas at all costs. but then the other side of it, we could be in a i other side of it, we could be in a whole other world of pain. finally, how mindful our decision—makers about the social, mental health impact on people when they are forced to stay at home? we keep being told we have to learn with to live with this. it is being told we have to learn with to live with this.— live with this. it is a nasty virus. we are not _ live with this. it is a nasty virus. we are not suggesting - live with this. it is a nasty virus. i we are not suggesting lockdown. live with this. it is a nasty virus. - we are not suggesting lockdown. we are opposed to locked out. we are trying to find ways to be preventive and take that —— protect the things that matter. it is reducing unnecessary social contacts for the time being until we really know what the impact of this is going to be. some of the worst forecasts are taking us up to much higher admissions than even lastjanuary, but we just admissions than even lastjanuary, but wejust don't admissions than even lastjanuary, but we just don't know at the moment exactly what is going to happen and every day... the other longer term thing is we need a global vaccination programme. it is noticeable that all of the variants have come from vaccinated populations, whether it was the kent variant, the delta in india, and now omicron in south africa. in low income countries they still only have 3% of people vaccinated, and thatis have 3% of people vaccinated, and that is why some of us have been calling for real attempts by governments to get together to have a patented so you don't have two companies making billions of dollars while many people around the world don't get vaccinated. so there are a lot of issues that we have to address. this won't be the last variant. wejust address. this won't be the last variant. we just don't know what is going to happen in the future. that is bad news, but there are more things we can do to protect people in addition to getting vaccination and booster rates up.— in addition to getting vaccination and booster rates up. thank you very much. and booster rates up. thank you very much- breaking _ and booster rates up. thank you very much. breaking news. _ and booster rates up. thank you very much. breaking news. from - and booster rates up. thank you very much. breaking news. from the - and booster rates up. thank you very much. breaking news. from the first minister of scotland nicola sturgeon saying that the latest figures suggest that omicron is likely to be the dominant strain of coronavirus by tomorrow, reflecting just how fast it is spreading. she said there would be a drive to increase... it would be a drive to increase... it would drive and even by a rapid increase in infections, she said and that there was a dangerous sleepwalking into emergency if the price decisive action wasn't taken. they couldn't deal with the finance necessary to deal with the situation, but he has asked for an urgent meeting with the prime minister later today. more breaking news. you recall the story we have been reporting about little girl called starr hobson who died in 2020 after what was described in court as months of neglect, cruelty and injury. the two women who were over the 16—month—old's death could have their sentence increased. savannah brock hill was jailed for a minimum of 25 years for murder and her mother who is 20 were sentenced to eight years for causing or allowing her death. it will be examined under the unduly lenient sentence came. they said we have received a request for the sentence is to be considered. they have 28 days to considered. they have 28 days to consider the case and make a decision. frankie smith was told he would have to serve at least two thirds of her sentence, minus proximally 430 days which he had already served in custody on remand. so that unduly lenient sentence scheme being invoked in the case of starr hobson. he travelled to london from his home in east bonn to carry out what the prosecution alleges was a premeditated attack. a garage worker has accepted responsibility for the killing of primary school teacher sabina nessa. our home affairs correspondent, june kelly is at the old bailey. his lawyer said he was admitting response for her death, but he is pleading not guilty to the charge of murder. he is an albanian national and with him in the dock was an interpreter to help them follow proceedings and a few feet away sat members of her family. proceedings and a few feet away sat members of herfamily. her sister, and otherfamily members came to members of herfamily. her sister, and other family members came to the old bailey for this social distance hearing. they were following proceedings in what was a forecourt but we were all socially distance. she was on her way to meet her friend for a night out, left her home in south london but she never arrived at that meeting and her body was found the following day in a park which was near her home. since her death there had been a number of vigils in her memory, including very poignantly individual in october on what would have been her 29th birthday. the released balloons with two and nine on them marking her birthday. in terms of the legal process, there will be a hearing in february and then a trial date has been set forjune next year. february and then a trial date has been set forjune next year. thank ou ve been set forjune next year. thank you very much- — business groups in the uk are increasing pressure on the government to help firms suffering from the rise in covid cases, which has led to cancelled bookings. the cbi, which represents british businesses, urged ministers to provide support "in lockstep with future restrictions", and uk hospitality has called for business rates to be deferred and vat discounts extended. the government has so far declined to offer further support for business. joining me now is aaron kossoff, owner and baker at kossoffs bakery. thank you forjoining us. how have you changed how you are operating in light of the latest covid news? yesterday we decided to to protect our staff and ensure they have a christmas day, we thought it would be the best thing to do. so we announce on social media we would just go back to take a ways. haifa just go back to take a ways. how much difference _ just go back to take a ways. how much difference you _ just go back to take a ways. how much difference you think that will make to your customers? what have the eating and drinking habits been like a fly? flil" the eating and drinking habits been likeafl? . , . , like a fly? our customers have been so sopportive _ like a fly? our customers have been so sopportive on _ like a fly? our customers have been so supportive on social— like a fly? our customers have been so supportive on social media - like a fly? our customers have been so supportive on social media and i like a fly? our customers have been so supportive on social media and a | so supportive on social media and a lot of them have praised us for making a difficult decision. it was a tough decision. but fortunately, being a baker, we can plant that takeaway service. we do have that luxury. but the community... everyone has been very supportive of us in making a decision. itibi’htzit everyone has been very supportive of us in making a decision.— us in making a decision. what about other businesses _ us in making a decision. what about other businesses around _ us in making a decision. what about other businesses around you - us in making a decision. what about other businesses around you that i us in making a decision. what about| other businesses around you that are able to respond and be flexible? are you seeing them do the same? yes. able to respond and be flexible? are you seeing them do the same? yes, we are, buti you seeing them do the same? yes, we are. but i have — you seeing them do the same? yes, we are, but i have spoken _ you seeing them do the same? yes, we are, but i have spoken to _ you seeing them do the same? yes, we are, but i have spoken to a _ you seeing them do the same? yes, we are, but i have spoken to a local- are, but i have spoken to a local landlord and he has lost so many reservations, particularly in the last ten days of the build—up to christmas and it has been very difficult to take, considering the year that we have been through in hospitality as a whole. christmas was our way to get going again. so he has had it quite tough. a lot of them have reverted to take a ways, if they can. we them have reverted to take a ways, if they can-— them have reverted to take a ways, if they can. we are hearing increase in calls from — if they can. we are hearing increase in calls from different _ if they can. we are hearing increase in calls from different businesses i in calls from different businesses and business groups from the government to intervene again and to offer some sort of financial support. offer some sort of financial su ort. ~ ., offer some sort of financial sopport-— offer some sort of financial su--ort. ~ ., ., ~' offer some sort of financial su--ort. . ., ,, ., offer some sort of financial su--ort. . ., ,, support. what would you like to see? financial sopport _ support. what would you like to see? financial support is _ support. what would you like to see? financial support is always _ support. what would you like to see? financial support is always helpful- financial support is always helpful but we are taking each day as it comes and we will follow government guidelines. we will try and take each day as it comes and the most important thing for us is to make sure our staff are protected and also our customers are protected. it also our customers are protected. it sounds like your staff have the best prospect of a safe christmas for what you have done. thank you so much for talking to us. thank you very much. let's get more on this on speak to labour's shadow business secretary jonathan reynolds. thank you forjoining us. we are not where we were at the very worst point where we needed fellow and businesses needed support, so what would be proportionate support, do you believe at the moment? i haste would be proportionate support, do you believe at the moment? i have to start by saying _ you believe at the moment? i have to start by saying that — you believe at the moment? i have to start by saying that i _ you believe at the moment? i have to start by saying that i cannot _ you believe at the moment? i have to start by saying that i cannot stress . start by saying that i cannot stress forcefully enough just how serious the situation is now, having had a national press conference last night where people have been told, try not to go out. that would be had at any time of year, especially hospitality, but at this time of year when so much of the revenue is made, it is extremely difficult indeed. so the goods priority to be as soon as soon as possible, i mean today, to make announcements that will give reassurance, anything that will give reassurance, anything that will improve their cash flow position of these businesses should be top of the list and the first thing i would suggest would be things like their freezing or business rates for the whole of next year. i think the government's substantial rise in insurance, that should be looked at again. there is a lot of debt that businesses are carrying because of the earlier stages of the pandemic. there is more flexible it either could be offered and what has to be repaid. and things like sick pay and the support from businesses in terms of money they get back when workers are off. all of that would really help. for this announcement would be made last night from an impromptu press conference and the chancellor isn't evenin conference and the chancellor isn't even in the country and is only meeting businesses after the announcement has been made, that is completely unacceptable. you mentioned — completely unacceptable. you mentioned the _ completely unacceptable. you mentioned the debt businesses, what do you make then of the bank of england increasing business rates? it is taken quite a few people by surprise. it is only going up to not point to low, but somebody somewhere will have to pay for it. the point to low, but somebody somewhere will have to pay for it.— will have to pay for it. the country now faces — will have to pay for it. the country now faces the _ will have to pay for it. the country now faces the worst _ will have to pay for it. the country now faces the worst of _ will have to pay for it. the country| now faces the worst of everything. inflation, tax is high, but growth is low and that is the consequence of poor decisions. people knew inflation was rising, it was already a factor, but the scale of what that has meant, we still have some aspects of government policy, student loans linked to the old figure. so the situation is very serious and the bank of england does have to respond to that. you serious and the bank of england does have to respond to that.— have to respond to that. you talk about poor _ have to respond to that. you talk about poor decisions. _ have to respond to that. you talk about poor decisions. i _ have to respond to that. you talk about poor decisions. i assume l have to respond to that. you talk. about poor decisions. i assume you mean the government. but british sue nack was praised for the support offered to businesses last time. rishi sunak. offered to businesses last time. rishi sunak— rishi sunak. the extension of furlou . h rishi sunak. the extension of furlough was _ rishi sunak. the extension of furlough was something - rishi sunak. the extension of furlough was something we i rishi sunak. the extension of - furlough was something we asked for and that was the right decision. the principal has surely got to be that economic support follows the health measures that have been introduced. if you are having a press conference like last night and you see an announcement like that made, i don't think anyone canjustify announcement like that made, i don't think anyone can justify we have to call the government to parliament anyway because they were going to come, but being told that it is today that the chancellor will be having those engagements with the business community, doing it from california. this cannot be an acceptable way to proceed. i can genuinely tell you, i have been told that businesses will be making people redundant from next week on the seat receive some kind of reassurance by the end of today or tomorrow. that would be terrible at any kind of the year —— time of the year. it any kind of the year -- time of the ear. ., , �* ., , any kind of the year -- time of the ear. ., ,�* .,, ., year. it doesn't trouble you to extend the — year. it doesn't trouble you to extend the kind _ year. it doesn't trouble you to extend the kind of— year. it doesn't trouble you to extend the kind of support - year. it doesn't trouble you to i extend the kind of support that year. it doesn't trouble you to - extend the kind of support that you are talking about would mean even more borrowing? the are talking about would mean even more borrowing?— are talking about would mean even more borrowing? the position we are in, let's more borrowing? the position we are in. let's not — more borrowing? the position we are in, let's not forget _ more borrowing? the position we are in, let's not forget that _ more borrowing? the position we are in, let's not forget that this _ more borrowing? the position we are in, let's not forget that this is - more borrowing? the position we are in, let's not forget that this is an - in, let's not forget that this is an unprecedented situation and i'm not comfortable with the overall level of borrowing, nobody would be, but it is preferable to the consequences of not taking action. a substantial part of our tax base is a business community itself and if we end up in a situation where we are giving people the support, we are letting those businesses hanging. i think that would be a poet decision. if they are the ones making decisions, making announcements like last night, they have to stand behind those decisions and give people the support that is required. parents should talk to their children about pornography and online sexual harassment and from a young age. that's according to the children's commissioner for england. dame rachel de souza says young people want their parents to broach these topics. she's written a new guide — with the help of teenagers and young adults. the "overriding" message from the group of 16 to 21—year—olds consulted was to "talk early, talk often". pa rents are advised to keep the conversation going to ensure there is no "awkwardness" or "taboo" subjects. it also suggests that parents should talk about the risks of sharing pictures when they first give their child a phone — and explain early on that they might be sent naked pictures. well earlier, dame rachel de souza explained how the guide came about. the government asked me to try and make the online world safer, so earlier this year, i've been, like, holding tech companies to account and challenging them. but what i realised was so many parents were saying to me, can you give us advice? i'm really worried. 0rjust buying an ipad or a new phone for my child. what do you advise? and i thought the best people to give the advice, and that is what gives makes this guide unique, were young people who had been there. now, these 16 to 21—year—olds are really, really serious about this. they put their time in to write a brilliant guide. and not only have they outlined the harms that children and young people face online, there are brilliant things about the online world, but there are some real harms too and they are outlined in here. but the most powerful advice was set boundaries, you know, don't let your underage child go on social media accounts. set some time boundaries. they also really wanted to talk to their parents. and it's quite funny, because they all talked about that embarrassing conversation, you know, oh, don'tjust come all at once, mum and dad, and have a big conversation. talk to us often. talk to us in an age—appropriate way and one thing that surprised me was how young the 16 to 21—year—old said you should be talking about these things, because i know, evidence i have says that over 50% of 11 to 13—year—olds have come across serious pornography on social media accounts they shouldn't even be on. so i think, as parents, we need to really be... really try to protect our children, we need to know how to do it. one lovely thing the 16 to 21—year—olds said was, you know that, when you come home and mum says, how was your day? that's really important. keep asking them that. even though they may be just a bit grumpy. if there is something going wrong, they will open up to you. joining me now is co—ceo of barnardos lynn perry. thank you forjoining us, what is your view of the gauge.- thank you forjoining us, what is your view of the gauge. thank you, we really welcome _ your view of the gauge. thank you, we really welcome the _ your view of the gauge. thank you, we really welcome the gauge - your view of the gauge. thank you, we really welcome the gauge from | your view of the gauge. thank you, i we really welcome the gauge from the children's commissioner and in particular this guide has been put together using the voices and lived experiences and expertise of children and young people. that is absolutely at the heart of it and i think it is critical that all of us here respond.— think it is critical that all of us here respond. from your point of view, barnardo's _ here respond. from your point of view, barnardo's would _ here respond. from your point of view, barnardo's would like - here respond. from your point of view, barnardo's would like the l view, barnardo's would like the government to go further and enshrine certain protections and more. what would you like to see? some of what is in the guide echoes practitioners. which really indicates concern about the young age at which young people are able to access online pornographic material. including things like age verification, children and young people should never ever be close to harmful coned tent. we are calling for a whole batch of approaches which includes things like guide from the children's commissioner but also regulation, calls for online verification and also more to be donein verification and also more to be done in self—regulation. truth? verification and also more to be done in self-regulation. why are you so determined _ done in self-regulation. why are you so determined that _ done in self-regulation. why are you so determined that should _ done in self-regulation. why are you so determined that should happen? | so determined that should happen? what is the damage and impact the sort of content can have on young people? children and young people have told us about the very corrosive impact that accessing online pornography can have on their view of what constitutes a healthy relationship and we know that is particularly damaging during their formative years of childhood and early adulthood. we also know this impacts on the mental health and well—being of children and can put them at risk of children and can put them at risk of exploitative situations and for those reasons we think the whole system approach that includes legislation, education and guidance from parents and carers is really important. from parents and carers is really important-— from parents and carers is really imortant. . ,, , . ., important. thank you very much for our important. thank you very much for your time- — nearly a quarter of patients brought to hospital in an ambulance are facing dangerous delays getting into hospital in england, nhs data shows. ambulances are meant to hand over patients within 15 minutes of arriving. but in the past week 23% out of nearly 84,000 patients brought in waited over 30 minutes. joining me now is patricia marquis, directorfor england at the royal college of nursing. thank you very much forjoining us. these sound like troubling weights, what is the impact of patients when they are kept waiting? i what is the impact of patients when they are kept waiting?— they are kept waiting? i think it is clear if you're _ they are kept waiting? i think it is clear if you're in _ they are kept waiting? i think it is clear if you're in an _ they are kept waiting? i think it is clear if you're in an ambulance . they are kept waiting? i think it is| clear if you're in an ambulance and have had to wait for that ambulance and waiting then to get into an emergency department, it is not right, ambulances were not built to be the unit you are cared for in for a long period of time so the impact on patients will be significant. of course there will be really well educated professional staff with the many ambulances but it is not the right and —— environment to be treated end. we should have a system that allows us to off—load into emergency departments quickly. but our services at the moment are really overloaded and under pressure. it is failing patients right now. itibi’hen overloaded and under pressure. it is failing patients right now.— failing patients right now. when you sa the failing patients right now. when you say the system _ failing patients right now. when you say the system is — failing patients right now. when you say the system is overloaded, - failing patients right now. when you say the system is overloaded, do i failing patients right now. when you i say the system is overloaded, do you mean you do not have enough staff to take people on?— take people on? yes, beds, we can bu bets take people on? yes, beds, we can buy bets but _ take people on? yes, beds, we can buy bets but the _ take people on? yes, beds, we can buy bets but the workforce - take people on? yes, beds, we can buy bets but the workforce is - take people on? yes, beds, we can buy bets but the workforce is the i buy bets but the workforce is the problem. at the moment we do not have a nurses, doctors and many of the staff groups within the nhs or indeedin the staff groups within the nhs or indeed in the social care so from my perspective that are not enough nurses so the system is very pressurised, dealing with the impact of covid has been visible to all of us. we went into the pandemic with massive nursing shortages. the pandemic has not helped that and now with the pressure of the pandemic rising again as well as the services trying to catch up on the back log of services it missed over the last 18 months, then the pressure on the system isjust 18 months, then the pressure on the system is just huge and 18 months, then the pressure on the system isjust huge and it 18 months, then the pressure on the system is just huge and it is now having an impact on patients in the care their having to receive. itibi’htzit care their having to receive. what is the short-term _ care their having to receive. what is the short-term answer? - care their having to receive. what is the short—term answer? you do not conjure fully qualified nurses out of thin air, takes years. it conjure fully qualified nurses out of thin air, takes years.- of thin air, takes years. it looks bleak for short-term _ of thin air, takes years. it looks bleak for short-term answers. i of thin air, takes years. it looks - bleak for short-term answers. there bleak for short—term answers. there are long—term answers that the government must listen to, having a workforce that is fit for purposes vital in the future. for here and now, the message has to be that the government, the nhs and social care have to look after their staff. everyone is vital, we need to keep them at work and keep them safe and well at work. we cannot be just cancelling annual leave for example stop staff need their breaks. all things that go out of the window when you are under pressure but they are all things that are vital at the minute to keep people fit and well and able to continue to come to work. clearly there are things the public can do as well. covid is starting to have an impact, large numbers of staff are being affected, having to isolate are having covid themselves so we need the public to plates part by being careful, socially distancing, washing their hands, winning their masks, all the things we know that are really important to try and protect the nhs and try and minimise, although it is already under pressure, minimise the impact that those things, covid particularly will have on the service. ~ , ., particularly will have on the service. ~ i. ,. , particularly will have on the service. ~ , ., ,. , . service. when you describe what it is like working _ service. when you describe what it is like working in _ service. when you describe what it is like working in the _ service. when you describe what it is like working in the nhs - service. when you describe what it is like working in the nhs at - service. when you describe what it is like working in the nhs at the i is like working in the nhs at the moment, how will you attract anyone to come and train and join a workplace that is so fraught with pressure, dangerat times workplace that is so fraught with pressure, danger at times and pay rates that don't go up very high? that is a really good question. we have seen that more people have been attracted to join the profession since the pandemic started and we have to hope their visibility that has been given to nursing and health care professionals during the period is long—lasting and it does have the impact. it is an amazing profession and an amazing job. 0ur priority now has to be to retain staff we have got. longerterm, we has to be to retain staff we have got. longer term, we have to believe pressures will change and they well, absolutely they will but right at the moment, our priority is to rein —— retain all of the stuff we currently have, treat them well and be honest with the pressure about the pressure thereunder. send the right messages to government. think about payment, think about the messages you are sending out whether these mice —— pressures are sustainable or not. they are not. the workforce is feeling the pressure and needs to know that you understand that. i would encourage everybody to think about becoming a nurse, it is a brilliantjob, it really is and you can make a difference to people's lives and thatis difference to people's lives and that is the most rewarding thing that is the most rewarding thing that is. at the minute, just please look after them. that is. at the minute, 'ust please look after themh look after them. thank you very much. south africa was where the new omicron variant was first identified, and cases there have taken off rapidly. this is starting to be seen in other countries, and the world health organizationsays it is "spreading at a rate we have not seen with any previous variant". what else can we learn from the south african experience? let's speak to our health reporter rachel schraer. we are all learning more about omicron every day. what kinds of claims and confusion are you seeing online? you can go mad reading that stuff. absolutely. this is a new variant and we are trying to learn about it. there are lots of questions. we are trying to work out whether it is a milder or more severe disease, what role vaccination might be an online conversation reflexes questions. people are looking for the answers but the issue comes when there is something like where there is a gap in her knowledge and understanding. it is new and we don't have all the answers yet. it provides fertile ground for people rather particular agenda, they insert their favoured theory and that is why times like this when uses breaking and unfolding quickly, it is all the more important for people to think critically and be careful what they are seeing online. for example, one claim i am saying is that vaccination is totally ineffective against the variant which is not supported by evidence but it is something that in the confusion, it is a message being put out there. what are the facts — what do we know so far? absolutely. from south africa, we are starting to see, by looking at data from hospitals, it seems to be having milder effects so given the sheer number of cases we are seeing, we are seeing fewer people going into hospital and intensive care but scientists say this cannot tell anything about the variant itself. probably this is the effect of immunity in the population both from vaccination, higheramong immunity in the population both from vaccination, higher among older people, and also from the experience of people in south africa who had the virus and therefore have natural immunity. it looks like reassuring news but we also cannot say what this means for the variant itself and whether it is more severe. thank ou ve and whether it is more severe. thank you very much- _ the headlines on bbc news... and the bank of england increases interest rates or the first time in over three years, from 0.1% to 0.25% the country's chief medical officer says the uk could surpass previous records of people admitted to hospital with covid—19. labour says businesses will have to start making redundancies next week unless the government provides more support forestry confirms. —— for british firms. the only british woman convicted for travelling to syria to join islamic state group says she's now ashamed of her actions. tareena shakil says she hopes her case serves as a warning about the consequences and dangers of extremism. she is one of around 450 britons who've returned to the uk from areas controlled by is. poonam taneja from the bbc�*s asian network reports. british mother tareena shakil in syria back in 2014. she had secretly travelled to the heartland of islamic state group with her one—year—old son. here she lived in a house with dozens of other women as they prepared to marry foreign fighters. conversations were often listened to and, you know, you were just generally expected to behave in a certain way. you know, don't cause any trouble. she says the brutal reality of life under is soon became apparent. there were, like, two girls who didn't act that way, who would just act open. i can't really give an example... they were just unruly, really. and, you know, a van came, men came off the van and took them girls away and we never seen them again. less than three months after arriving in syria, tareena shakil escaped back to the uk. police arrested her at the airport. so how did this bright student with ambitions of becoming a doctor end up embracing a group which murdered, raped and tortured thousands? during her trial, the court was told that after her abusive marriage ended, she was radicalised online. she posted the black flag of is on social media and exchanged messages with prominent is members, even urging others to take up arms. jailed for six years, she has now served her sentence and has gone through a de—radicalisation programme. i regret every last thing in terms of my decision to run away to syria with my child. you know, i live with them consequences every day. tareena shakil now looks very different. online selfies have replaced is flags, but rehabilitating convicted terrorists is complex. so how do we know she has really changed and is no longer a threat? it has been a long journey and along the way, i've had a lot of different conversations with a lot of different people. you know, imams in prison, mentors outside. but she says she remains bitter towards is and its online recruiters. you know, i rememberfeeling really sad, really bitter, really taken advantage of and duped as it were, but i rememberfeeling really like ashamed of myself to some degree that i had allowed it to happen. tareena shakil says she has turned her back on islamic state group and its ideology. she says she hopes her story will act as a warning to other girls and women vulnerable to online radicalisation. covid passports came into force in england yesterday. all adults now need to prove they've been vaccinated — or test negative for covid — to enter nightclubs, sports matches or other large events. similar systems were already in use in scotland, wales and northern ireland. john maguire reports. at the emirates stadium last night, the stakes were high, notjust for those on the pitch, but with the omicron variant spreading rapidly through london, also for the tens of thousands of arsenal and west ham supporters watching. got my covid pass, got the lateral flow negative test. we had an e—mail from the venue to say to get here early at half six, but we thought it could take a long time to check everyone. i am quite old and i wantl to know i'm safe in there, so i have my covid passport here already to show. - for the first time, in england at least, entry could only be gained with proof of full vaccination, a negative covid test, or an exemption. with these changes in england, entry rules are now similar across the uk. nightclubs, many of which had adopted their own restrictions, are now bound by law. just tell me what you had to do to get into night? id and then a covid pass or a test. so you've got your passport? yeah, i had the pass ready on the phone. was it all straightforward ? it was pretty good. to be honest, i didn't use the pass, ijust used a negative covid test i did three or four hours ago. you feel safer? yeah. you are very close to people when you are in there. you want to make sure - everyone is ok to come in, and you are not going to go home and suddenly have covid. - you guys have a great night. thank you. staying healthy to see friends and family at christmas provides a huge incentive to follow the rules. more so now we are going home for christmas. going home to see family a bit. but before then, everyone is young and fit and healthy and i don't know many people who think about it. there are a few that are conscious about it, which is fair enough. i am thinking about it now, because i have to go home. the aim of the new laws, with all the restrictions and limitations placed on our lives over almost two years, is to attempt to slow down and ultimately stop omicron's speed and spread. john maguire, bbc news. now, the remarkable tale of an endangered north atlantic right whale who's given birth — against all odds. louisa pilbeam has the story. a mother and her calf frolicking off the coast of georgia. it's a majestic sight, but, if you look a little closer, you'll notice this north atlantic right whale is entangled in fishing rope. she has been for months, but, remarkably, still managed to give birth. it's a very odd and first—ever seen situation when a mother is entangled in fishing gear and potentially lethally entangled, and yet she gives birth to a calf, so now we have to worry about two whales. snow cone, as she's nicknamed, has already had an epicjourney, travelling 1300 miles through her annual migration while entangled. she was first seen caught up in fishing gear off plymouth harbour, massachusetts, in march. by may, she was by the coast of new brunswick, canada. while, at the start of december, she was spotted with her newborn near cumberland island, georgia. right whale calves swim incredibly close to their mothers, making for a near impossible task for this entanglement responders, but saving this pair is critical for the entire species. i guess the most outstanding trait is one they are one of the rarest mammals on earth. we know they are on the brink of extinction, maybe something around 330 animals remaining. so the calves of these animals are the future and that's largely why the situation with snow cone is so compelling. snow cone and her calf will continue to be closely monitored, with many challenges in the long journey north ahead. louisa pilbeam, bbc news. another birth. a polar bear cub has been born at at the highland wildlife park, the cub is about a foot long and the weight of guinea pig. you are doing better than me if you can make it you are doing better than me if you can make it out. you are doing better than me if you can make it out. a spokesperson said they were not celebrating yet because the first month was a critical time for a cub's survival. it's going to be another busy awards season for actor, olivia colman. she's already picked up a couple of nominatons for her latest role — in a film called "the lost daughter". directed by maggie gyllenhall — better known for her work as an actress — it's about a lonely academic re—living some of the struggles she faced in motherhood. while the subject is serious, it's clear that they thoroughly enjoyed working together — as our entertainment correspondent colin paterson found out when he met them. what were your daughters like when they were little? i can't remember much, actually. olivia colman, maggie gyllenhaal, you are both mothers — you have got two girls, you have got two boys and a girl, have i got that right? yes. and this is a film which really does explore motherhood. it goes to some places that are very dark? i had never played a part like that before, and i don't recall seeing a woman like leda depicted on screen before, and so that was interesting — and just searingly honest. you know, the depiction of, not necessarily being a great mum. children are a crushing responsibility. happy birthday. it's based on a book by elena ferrante. i felt like she was being honest about motherhood, but notjust motherhood, all sorts of things, i think, about the feminine experience in the world. i felt like i had never heard many of the things that she wrote about, expressed before. and i was so confident about hearing them said out loud, even things that are dark and hard and as disturbing. it's comforting to know that other people feel the way you do. mamma? i'm working. i'm suffocating. how does it compare to your experiences of motherhood? i've always felt that i'm a better mummy when i feel creatively fulfilled. so i'm very lucky i get to do both things. i love myjob. and i get to have lots of time my children. but when young leda, you know, it doesn't feel like her partner is as appreciative of her brain and her ability, as of his own. and that's when things start to go a bit wrong. i can really understand why she's, you know, she's at the end of her tether. she's not being seen and heard. yeah. that's when anyone, any parent, feels that if they can't do thejob, you know. get up! mummy, get up! this film is already doing well at awards. it's just won four at the gothams, including best picture. you got best performance. maggie had to accept it for you. so, you've flown from the states to the uk since then. did you remember her trophy? ohi — 0 h, my god, maggie| it's really heavy, i'm telling you! it was like you could work out. whoa, whoa, whoa, you forgot it?! i forgot to ask! i have no idea where it is! sorry. maggie... i'm so sorry. but that looks like a trophy. that's what they should look like. i don't think you can steal things from hotel rooms, maggie. well, present it to her! here's your trophy, here you go. lovely. this is going to make up for her forgetting your... oh, my god. no, it's attached, it's attached. it's plugged in. it would be a great best actress trophy. we'll have to try and unplug that. please, don't let's steal things from the room! thank you very much for your time and for speaking to us. yeah, thank you very much. the mantelpiece must be creaking with trophies. the mantelpiece must be creaking with trophies. now it's time for a look at the weather with matt taylor. hello there. i hope you like the colour grey because it is going to be the dominant sky colour as we go through the next few days across the uk. lots of cloud in place, stubbornly remaining all the way into the weekend for most. it will be largely dry although over the next few hours we continue to see a bit of rain and drizzle across the north west of scotland, particularly lewis, sutherland, orkney and shetland. where we saw the frost this morning and the sunshine, well, that continues for some, eastern scotland and eastern counties of england. for some, where you started with sunshine, the cloud amounts will build. reasonably bright too compared with yesterday across some parts of west cornwall as well. a mild day for all. temperatures still in double figures. into this evening and overnight, the cloud is going to barely shift for most. maybe a few breaks in the english channel, eastern scotland, north—east england and it's here where you are most likely to see the return of the touch of frost into the morning, one or two pockets of mist or fog. most will have a mild start to friday morning. but friday, high pressure is in charge, and just notice as we go through into the weekend, the high pressure remains in charge. essentially a story of what you have got, you will largely keep. plenty of cloud in place for friday making for a rather dull day. best of the breaks down through the english channel, channel islands particularly, maybe parts of cornwall. also north—east of scotland and some in north—east england could see the sunshine come through. after a chilly start, it may be a little bit cooler than we will see through today. elsewhere, temperatures, nine to 11 celsius. a touch above where we should be for the time of year. you'll notice this weekend, as well as sticking with the cloud, a largely dry story, things will turn that little bit cooler. a cloudy day for most again on saturday, the best of the sunshine will be towards the far south west, also across the north the cloud, a largely dry story, things will turn that little bit cooler. a cloudy day for most again on saturday, the best of the sunshine will be towards the far south west, also across the north east of scotland, particularly over the hills. it might even be warmer in the grampians than it will be at lower level sites. in the grampians than it will be temperature starting to drop away a little bit and they will drop further as we go into sunday. more of a breeze on that eastern coast, a lot more cloud in place. not a huge amount of sunshine, best of which probably across orkney and shetland later in the day and more of us in single figure temperatures. but it does turn colder as we head into christmas week. an interesting week ahead. if you are looking for something white for your christmas run—up, the cold air mayjust bring one or two wintry showers in eastern parts. but we could see a fightback of mild air from the atlantic, and where those two clash, it depends where it is, you could see a mixture of rain, sleet and snow. of course, we'll keep you updated. are likely to go up "incredibly fast" — and that the previous record of daily hospital admissions could be broken. as health officials spoke this morning of severe pressure on the nhs, professor chris whitty warned of major challenges in the days ahead. a lot of people will simultaneously fall ill and be unwell, isolating or caring for others at the same time across the whole economy. so, that side of things i also do think we need to take quite seriously. hospitality firms call for more financial support from the government amid rising cancellations due to omicron. and this lunchtime, first minister nicola sturgeon said omicron is likely to be the dominant strain of coronavirus in scotland by tomorrow. also on the programme. the bank of england puts up interest rates for the first time

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