the us federal reserve will decide whether to raise interest rates later today, although they're expected to remain at 0.25% unchanged from march 2020. fed chairmanjerome powell is expected to plot a path of higher interest rates next year. economists polled by reuters expect the fed to raise interest rates in the third quarter of next year. last month the federal reserve outlined plans to withdraw the billions of dollars it has been pumping into the economy during the pandemic. since the start of the covid crisis, the us central bank has been buying $120 billion worth of bonds every month to help keep borrowing costs low. fed chairjerome powell said he expected economic growth to strengthen over the rest of the year. however, he said then the fed "can be patient" about raising interest rates. but inflation is raging in the us with annual inflation at rates not seen for a0 years. the latest figures show prices rose 6.8% in the year to november. and speculation is mounting that the fed will reduce the bond—buying support it provides every month more quickly than planned, paving the way for a possible rise in interest rates next year. joining me now is scott anderson, chief economist at bank of the west, san francisco. what do you expect the federal reserve to do later?— reserve to do later? thank you for having _ reserve to do later? thank you for having me. _ reserve to do later? thank you for having me. we _ reserve to do later? thank you for having me. we think - reserve to do later? thank you for having me. we think the . reserve to do later? thank you| for having me. we think the fed is a bit behind the curve now, wejust had to is a bit behind the curve now, we just had to months is a bit behind the curve now, wejust had to months in is a bit behind the curve now, we just had to months in the is a bit behind the curve now, wejust had to months in the us with much stronger than expected consumer inflation. it isn'tjust expected consumer inflation. it isn't just energy expected consumer inflation. it isn'tjust energy prices in the pandemic category, it is broad—based price inflation, so i do think the fed will have to move up their timetable for normalising monetary policy at the end of this meeting. we don't expect them to raise rates at the end of the meeting tomorrow, but we do expect them tomorrow, but we do expect them to announce an acceleration of the tapering of asset purchases from $15 billion a month to about $30 billion a month starting in january. about $30 billion a month starting injanuary. which means it will wrap that up by the middle of march of next year and opened the door for them to start raising rates as soon as much, but we don't think that is really going to happen untiljune next year. so happen untiljune next year. so ou happen untiljune next year. so you do expect them to announce a reduction of the bond buying support they provide every month? do you think that is the best way to cope with the current inflationary pressure? it is about all they can do at this point. there isn't a whole lot they can do about the supply chain disruption. there is some downside, some risk to the 0micron variant, so there is a chance they might come out a little bit more doveish. but i think the fed is feeling a bit concerned now that they are behind the curve now. the other thing we see in the us economy is that the labour market is recovering a lot faster than we expected. in november the us unemployment rate was already back down to 4.2%. we didn't really expect them to get start slow until march of next year, so in both cases it is giving the fed the green light to move forward here and start removing that accommodation. find forward here and start removing that accommodation. and indeed the strength _ that accommodation. and indeed the strength of— that accommodation. and indeed the strength of the _ that accommodation. and indeed the strength of the labour - the strength of the labour market is central to the fed's decisions on all of these. as you say, their options are limited. depending on what they do, do you think other central banks around the world, including the bank of england here, will take their leave from the decision of the federal reserve? yeah, i do. i think we are — federal reserve? yeah, i do. i think we are seeing _ federal reserve? yeah, i do. i think we are seeing that - think we are seeing that inflation is notjust a us phenomenon. just seeing it in the uk, seeing it in europe, seeing it in parts of asia, so we are seeing more and more federal banks taking it seriously, and if they have not started to move accommodation, they are certainly starting to make those plans now. we will have to leave _ make those plans now. we will have to leave it _ make those plans now. we will have to leave it there. - make those plans now. we will have to leave it there. many i have to leave it there. many thanks, thomas anderson, chief economist at bank of the west, san francisco. the cost of living in the uk rose by 4.2% in october, its highest rate in almost 10 years. the jump was driven largely by rising fuel and energy costs. on tuesday the imf warned the bank of england to avoid "inaction bias" over raising interest rates to head off inflationary pressure. and later this morning we'll get the latest consumer price index measure of uk monthly inflation for november. so what can we expect and will it put more pressure on the bank of england to act and raise interest rates on thursday? joining me now is ruth gregory, senior uk economist, capital economics. many thanks for joining many thanks forjoining me this morning. what do you expect inflation to hit this month, where would you put your money? and what would you say are the main pressures pushing it up at the moment? i main pressures pushing it up at the moment?— the moment? i suspect we are auoin to the moment? i suspect we are going to see — the moment? i suspect we are going to see inflation - the moment? i suspect we are going to see inflation climb - going to see inflation climb all the way to 5% in the figures for november, released this morning. that is a really big increase that we think is on the cards. if we are right to put that into context, that would be more than twice the bank of england's 2% target and it would be the highest inflation rate in a decade. that arises is likely to reflect a whole host of factors, including some strength relative to the unusually low level of prices last year, particularly in areas such as clothing, but also higherfuel areas such as clothing, but also higher fuel prices and a rise we have seen in tobacco duties as well. so i think we are likely to see a big rise coming this morning. quite a -unch coming this morning. quite a punchy prediction, _ coming this morning. quite a punchy prediction, the - coming this morning. quite a. punchy prediction, the highest inflation rates for a decade. do you think that would force the bank of england to act and raise rates to combat this rising inflation? it raise rates to combat this rising inflation?— raise rates to combat this rising inflation? it is tricky. i think whatever _ rising inflation? it is tricky. i think whatever the - rising inflation? it is tricky. i think whatever the bank | rising inflation? it is tricky. | i think whatever the bank of england does, it will be in quite an uncomfortable position. you know, it is charged with keeping inflation at 2%. we are looking out, talking about inflation perhaps rising to 5% or even more early next year. i think had it not been for 0micron, the strength of the labour market and this week's inflation figures, it would set the stage for an interest rate rise this week. the question is whether 0micron convinces the bank of england to sit tight. now the bank of england could raise rates, to try to prevent inflation settling at a higher rate, but that would also weaken economic activity, so i think there is quite a strong incentive for the bank of england to keep interest rates on hold this week, unchanged, and to wait to see a bit more about how the land lies the next time it meets in early february. interesting, you mentioned 0micron, of course. you clearly do see that as a key factor, lots of economists say they are not expecting a rate rise now until february 2022 at the earliest, is that a few shared, and also the bank does expect inflation to peak before 2022, pulling them back towards target by late 2023. as but also something that you agree with? i also something that you agree with? ., , ., ., , with? i do share that view but i think with? i do share that view but i think the _ with? i do share that view but i think the bank _ with? i do share that view but i think the bank of _ with? i do share that view but i think the bank of england i i think the bank of england will sit tight this week, and perhaps if we are looking at a rate rise, that might not come until february next year, obviously it could be kicked further back in the year, depending on what happens, surrounding 0micron. i think the key question, yes, it is not necessarily help i inflation rises but whether it will last. a lot of the pressure that we have seen on the index, as a comparison, is the index, as a comparison, is the cost remains quite low. that will disappear and inflation will fall back, and some of these pandemic related surges in demand and supply bottlenecks but have been pushing up on inflation, they should eventually ease. all of thatis should eventually ease. all of that is likely to push inflation back towards the 2% target and perhaps back towards the back end of next year. the big concern of course for the bank of england is that inflation remains longer lasting, either because the 0micron variant exacerbates existing supply issues or because perhaps inflation becomes a bit more ingrained in the system. we will leave it there. many thanks, ruth gregory. lucy hitchcock, founder of partner in wine, launched her business during lockdown. two years on, she's on track for an annual turnover of £250,000. she shares how a viral video and social media helped put her brand on the map for our ceo secrets series. something i wished i had known when i was starting partner in wine is that being smaller school. when i was starting, i was saying "we", i was trying to make the business sound bigger than it was. i quickly realised that actually, being the business owner and putting my face online and saying i, people and instantly about him in connection with me. —— then instantly had that human connection. the first year of my business was a bit of a slog to begin with, i was thinking, my gosh, is this a mistake? 0ur my gosh, is this a mistake? our sales increased 1700% overnight, we got stopped in selfridge's because of it. i started the business with £3000 from my personal savings and in 2020 returned over £30,000, and this year we are due to turnover a time start. social media has changed the way people operate their businesses because it essentially means anybody can start a business, anyone can market themselves, traditional advertising roots obviously cost you money upfront and as a small business, but is often not money you actually have. i spend a lot of my time filming videos so that people know who i am, know my business is, can connect with me, and that is, at the end of the day, what has made me sales. so is a small business, if you can face getting yourself on camera, and almost become a bizfluencer, that will really help you in the long run. now to asia, because china has released a slew of economic data today, which gives us some clues as to how consumers are feeling or how busy factories have been in the world's second biggest economy. but a lot of attention is on the property sector. let's bring in our asia business correspondent, mariko 0i. just talk us through the data? well, firstly, we are still very much watching evergrande. is she has hit record lows yesterday after announcing it might not be able to meet some of its financial obligations a couple of weeks ago and of course last week it missed some payments, and the company has now entered a debt restructuring process with chinese authorities. but were still waiting for confirmation from the company or badging. meanwhile, as you said, china released a bunch of economic data and prices of newly built houses, they have their sharpest monthly fall in 6.5 years in the month of november. it has also fallen for a third straight month. i have to say, when i say the sharpest fall, we are still talking about a fall of 0.3%. so the situation is still tightly controlled by badging. analysts expect prices to fall further, and if they do, buyers may not rush to buy new homes, and that would slow down sector even further and make the financial situation of those developers even worse. having said that, i've been talking to a lot of analysts about how badging has been handling the situation very differently to how other free economies might have handled a similar situation. economies might have handled a similarsituation. i economies might have handled a similar situation. i guess the most obvious contrast is with lemon brothers�* bankruptcy in 2008, and how it is really opaque couch china has been handling the situation. —— lehmann brothers�* bankruptcy. it is really hard to know what is happening with evergrande. in terms of the impact on the rest of the economy, factories remain busy and continued to be done from disruption caused by the energy crisis, and there are some concerns about a renewed virus outbreak, consumers not feeling as domestic as economists expected, but still not doing too badly. all in all, while there are concerns that growth is slowing down, it is not too bad stop we will have to leave it there, thank you, mariko 0i. stay with us on bbc news. still to come — nightclubbing just got harder. from today england requires a covid pass for entry to the dancing. but what do the nighttime entertainment industry think about that? saddam hussein is finished because he killed our people, ourwomen, our children. the signatures took only a few minutes, but they brought a formal end to 3.5 years of conflict — conflict that has claimed more than 200,000 lives. before an audience of world leaders, the presidents of bosnia, serbia and croatia put their names to the peace agreement. the romanian border- was sealed and silent today. romania has cut itself off from the outside world i in order to prevent the details of the presumed massacre i in timisoara from leaking out. from sex at the white house to a trial for his political life — the lewinsky affair tonight guaranteed bill clinton his place in history as only the second president ever to be impeached. this is bbc world news. the latest headlines: the us congress votes to seek criminal charges against donald trump�*s former chief of staff mark meadows. borisjohnson faces more questions over his leadership after a revolt of his own mps. now we get some of the day�*s other business stories we are keeping an eye on. the ceo of uber technologies said the company is looking to sell its stake in chinese ride—hailing firm didi. that comment was made at virtual fireside chat hosted by ubs on tuesday, but hasn�*t been officially confirmed by either company. the bbc is seeking comment from both didi and uber. shares of uber also jumped on tuesday after another remark that the rideshare company had its best week ever in terms of overall gross bookings last week. oil futures prices dipped after the international energy agency said the omicron variant is set to dent global demand recovery. the iea also said that it�*s lowering its forecast for oil demand by 100,000 barrels per day for next year. the price of brent crude is now hovering at about $73. apple is now requiring all customers and employees to wear masks at all its us retail stores. the move follows another surge in coronavirus cases in the us. previously apple only required masks in stores within regions that required them. new rules requiring people to have covid passports to enter nightclubs in england come into force today. the rules affect indoor venues holding more than 500 people and outdoor venues with a capacity of more than 4,000. people will need an nhs covid pass or negative lateral flow test to enter. the night time industries association said it comes at the worst possible time, with the pre—christmas period "absolutely crucial" for the sector and will have a "devastating impact". joining me now is michael kill, ceo of ntia, trade body of nightclubs, bars, music and entertainment venues representing 1,200 venues. many thanks for joining many thanks forjoining me here on the programme this morning. what will the introduction of covid passes mean for the industry? why do you oppose them? well, it�*s hugely challenging. as you can appreciate, the time of year is crucial for businesses to build up cash reserves so they can survive the early part of next year. but our experiences in both scotland and wales suggest that we see a two 25— 30% down in trade and the points of introduction. so on top of the narrative from government around not socialising that came out from public health england and several mps or ministers we are now face, on top of cancellations and rising costs, with the potential challenge around covid passports being introduced and the effects of that this weekend. how much are you expecting trade to drop and how crucial is christmas period to your members? as you can appreciate, we have been closed for 20 months. we have upheld the public�*s health strategy of government for a long time, whether it be reduced amounts of trade or closure, we are now facing a period where we need the next three weeks to be very strong and, as you can appreciate, with misinformation and challenges around narrative for government, which is already dented in terms of cancellations and tickets, it will potentially take a real sort of chunk of business away from us at a time when we needed to ensure that we can survive next year. and that is why we are calling for further support from the chancellor and the government in light of last night�*s vote. the government in light of last night's vote-— the government in light of last night's vote. are you expecting further closures _ night's vote. are you expecting further closures within - night's vote. are you expecting further closures within your i further closures within your industry because of these new measures, and if so what sort of support are you asking the government for? irate of support are you asking the government for?— of support are you asking the government for? we have already lost a third _ government for? we have already lost a third of— government for? we have already lost a third of nightclubs - lost a third of nightclubs across the country. almost during the pandemic. but the main source of support we are after is to look at freezing the vat a i2.5%, after is to look at freezing the vat a 12.5%, as you know, 16 january is the vat a 12.5%, as you know, 16january is when the vat needs to be paid and with this drastic change in trading environment it will have an impact. we also need the government to consider the additional restriction grant extension and also over and above that we need to, if this moves further and restrictions get heavier, we need to look at further protecting jobs. if get heavier, we need to look at further protecting jobs.- further protecting 'obs. if you are further protecting 'obs. if you against h further protecting 'obs. if you are against the i further protecting jobs. if you are against the covid - further protecting jobs. if you are against the covid pass, i are against the covid pass, what are you suggesting, you and your members as a middle road, bearing in mind the rise in the 0micron variant, the genuine health concerns out there about public safety, what are you suggesting as an alternative way forward ? are you suggesting as an alternative way forward? well, we take our— alternative way forward? well, we take our responsibilities i alternative way forward? well, we take our responsibilities in | we take our responsibilities in terms of public health very seriously and we worked very hard since 19july to ensure that we�*ve got mitigations in place in terms of things like upgrading ventilation, training, the masks, testing, et cetera. so we have done a fantasticjob, as we saw against clinicians and scientists who suggested that when we opened the doors we would see this influx of this rise in transmission, that wasn�*t the case, and that is down to the job that our industry has done. so i believe that the government should have confidence in what we are doing and understand we are experts in our settings and allow us to continue with the risk assessment approach and the frustration for us is the covid passport line really does nothing more than dragging into one sort of area where testing is happening at some of the bigger sides anyway. we feel what we�*re doing at the moment is mitigating the risk and should be supported and give the government confidence, since 19july, we are doing everything possible to ensure that people and our staff are safe. . that people and our staff are safe. , ., safe. 0k, interesting to get our safe. 0k, interesting to get your views _ safe. 0k, interesting to get your views this _ safe. 0k, interesting to get your views this morning. i your views this morning. michael kill, many thanks for your thoughts this morning. now, it looks like a lot of investment bankers on wall street could be in for a windfall. both goldman sachs and jp morgan chase are preparing to pay out bumper bonuses this year after lots of lucrative dealmaking. and we�*re not talking small beer here, it�*s said they are planning an increase to the bonus pots of more than a0%. so, are the bankers worth it? joining me now is fahad kamal, cio at kleinwort hambros goldman. thanks forjoining thanks for joining this morning. thanks forjoining this morning. we have talked so much about businesses and sectors that are suffered and struggled during the pandemic and it would appear that the financial sector, particularly the big investment banks, have done rather well over the last few months. . . . months. yes, it is all relative. _ months. yes, it is all relative, obviously i months. yes, it is all. relative, obviously there months. yes, it is all- relative, obviously there have been lean years as well following the great financial crisis and these things are cyclical. 0bviously crisis and these things are cyclical. obviously this is a time where there is a lot of activity in the market, companies are going private, companies are going private, companies are going public, and there is a frenzied period of activity. ultimately really reflects what is happening in the underlying economy and conditions remain quite loose and quite supportive for dealmaking.— and quite supportive for dealmaking. and quite supportive for dealmakina. . ., dealmaking. having said that, the issue of _ dealmaking. having said that, the issue of banker _ dealmaking. having said that, the issue of banker bonuses i dealmaking. having said that, j the issue of banker bonuses is always a contentious one, especially given the wider socio—economic context out there. do you think these banks are aware of that, are aware of the publicity around these sorts of announcements and how that might reflect on the industry? i that might reflect on the industry?— that might reflect on the industry? that might reflect on the indust ? . ~ industry? i mean, ithink it would be — industry? i mean, ithink it would be extremely i industry? i mean, ithink it would be extremely naive l industry? i mean, ithink it. would be extremely naive to think that they are not aware of it. of course, i�*m sure they are. nonetheless, they would rightly point out that the share price has, for most pros, has had a spectacular year and they are delivering, ultimately, for the most important constituent, which is their owners and shareholders. and ultimately to do that they have got to get the best talent and execute the deals they are working on. it is probably how they were supported and justified. they were supported and justified-— they were supported and 'ustified. �* . ., ., justified. and which areas of the financial _ justified. and which areas of the financial markets, i justified. and which areas of the financial markets, the i the financial markets, the capital markets have done particularly well? you mention mergers and acquisitions earlier, is that been the main profit—making area? earlier, is that been the main profit-making area? dealmaking of all kinds. _ profit-making area? dealmaking of all kinds, is _ profit-making area? dealmaking of all kinds, is advisory, - profit-making area? dealmaking of all kinds, is advisory, it i of all kinds, is advisory, it is also all sorts of debt raising, equity listing. it is effectively all kinds of things that are happening. there are corporate players out there, rivals, strategic partners wanting to grow, there is all sorts of private equity money out there were companies are being taken from public markets often into the private sphere, the reality is there is a huge amount of capital that is looking for homes and to be deployed, whether it is by corporate sponsors or others. interesting stuff. we will have to leave it there. good to talk to leave it there. good to talk to you, fahad kama. markets at their all—time high. hello. well, the key message in the weather forecast is that the weather is going to be very settled over the next few days. a big area of high pressure is going to establish itself across the uk, and that means settled conditions, i think, in the run—up to christmas. and on the satellite picture, you can see that area of high pressure across spain, portugal and france. it�*s building here and it�*s extending northwards. and as it extends northwards, it�*s going to push the fronts away to the north as well. but for the time being, we still have quite a few isobars — these pressure lines — so a stronger wind and a weather front close to northern ireland and across western parts of scotland and the north, as well, during the course of wednesday. so, here, it will be at times cloudy, but it�*s mild with that cloudy, rainy weather, around 8—9 degrees celsius. to the south of that, very mild, too. ten degrees, but it is dry. now, the cloud cover on wednesday will vary considerably across the uk. we still have that weakening weather front in the north west here, so dribs and drabs of rain. and at the very least, it will be cloudy, but plenty of bright if not even sunny weather around merseyside, parts of the midlands, lincolnshire, also northern and eastern parts of scotland. in the south, we have thicker cloud because it�*s drifting in from the southern climes here. now, this high pressure really will be in place across the uk by thursday. you can see the weather fronts have been pushed to the north, so that means it�*s drying out right across the uk. still a little bit of rain maybe early in the morning, flirting with the very far north—west of scotland and the northern isles, but you can see the bulk of the country is dry on thursday. and again, a lot of variation in the cloud cover, but wherever you will be on thursday, i think the temperature will be more or less the same, around 10—12 degrees celsius. now, this is what we call a blocking high, and this happens when the jet stream sort of wraps around it in the shape of the greek letter omega. so, you can just about make out that omega shape. when that happens in the atmosphere, things don�*t tend to move around an awful lot. they get sort of locked in, so that�*s why that high pressure will lock itself in, across this part of the world, across our shores. so, very little change is expected as we head through friday, through the weekend and into next week as well. that�*s it from me. good morning. welcome to breakfast with dan walker and sally nugent. 0ur headlines today. borisjohnson suffers the biggest conservative rebellion since he became prime minister. they ayes to the right 369,. 99 of his mps vote against the introduction of mandatory covid passes in england. despite the revolt, the changes have come into effect, meaning adults in england must show proof of vaccination, or a negative test, to enter nightclubs, sports matches and other large events — i�*ll have the details. a picture emerges of a party at conservative campaign

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