the hospitality sector has been waiting for christmas, hoping to recoup losses from last year's lockdowns. but with the omicron variant gathering pace, many are concerned consumers will choose to cancel or not book nights out for fear of new restrictions and rising case numbers. even though the sector has not had new restrictions imposed in the uk, many believe it's just a matter of time. industry figures say many venues could not "financially sustain another lockdown", with some calling for more government support. we are once again joined by kate nicholls, chief executive of uk hospitality. i know you are in touch with government all the time, what are they currently saying to you about restrictions that may be imposed in the future? we were reassured yesterday by the press conference from the prime minister and statements from the health secretary that ministers feel the restrictions they put in place this week on they put in place this week on the economy which are minimal and do not directly affect hospitality at the moment are sufficient in england to stem the flow of the virus and give them time to focus on the bristol programme. the booster programme _ bristol programme. the booster programme continuing - bristol programme. the booster programme continuing to - bristol programme. the booster programme continuing to be - bristol programme. the booster programme continuing to be the main focus of government action in order to avoid damaging restrictions being placed in the economy and a very welcome acknowledgement from ministers that further restrictions would have significant economic, social and broader public health concerns. however, there is still that chill going through consumer confidence at this time of year, people need to have more reassurance that restrictions will not be imposed when these matters are reviewed. ~ ,., imposed when these matters are reviewed. �* , ., imposed when these matters are reviewed. ~ ., reviewed. also, you got it together— reviewed. also, you got it together without - reviewed. also, you got it together without advice . reviewed. also, you got it. together without advice from scientists and some health experts who say if you avoid socialising with people, keep a distance from people but it was noted within the hospitality sector, everything is being done to make sure it's safe stop i think that is the key message and we were again pleased to hear ministers reinforce that yesterday as they did on sunday when making these announcements about further restrictions. acknowledging the really significant investment made by hospitality in the key measures that will keep our customers and members of staff safe so that's ventilation, hygiene, sanitation, those are the measures recommended by sage, thatis measures recommended by sage, that is why the hospitality industry has done since reopening injuly and it means levels of infections within the sector are incredibly low and that should give customers reassurance to maintain their bookings and continue christmas plans as both the health secretary and prime minister encourage them to do yesterday. some very welcome messages sent from government to offset some more confusing messages coming from the health community. but havin: from the health community. but having said _ from the health community. but having said that, if new restrictions are imposed on hospitality, especially now, some will not withstand that, will they? we will see further closures, won't we, of key parts of the hospitality sector? i parts of the hospitality sector? ., , , sector? ithink, given this is not any normal _ sector? ithink, given this is not any normal period - sector? ithink, given this is not any normal period of. not any normal period of trading, christmas is the time between halloween and new year's eve, it's the golden quarter and we make 40% of profits so any loss of trade at this time will push businesses towards being unviable, sadly. we've had 18 months of loss—making trading and restrictions to deal with. no cash reserves. shattered balance sheets, businesses need to have a positive christmas trade in order to secure their future going into the new year when people do not tend to visit as much and so loss of trade at this point would be devastating for many and that is why there were further restrictions, we know from businesses facing them in scotland and wales, it would have a significant impact on revenue and sadly the 10,000 businesses we lost because of the pandemic, that number would increase going into the new year. ,., ., increase going into the new year. ., ., ~' increase going into the new year. ., ., ~ ., year. good to talk to you auain, year. good to talk to you again, thank— year. good to talk to you again, thank you - year. good to talk to you again, thank you for - year. good to talk to you i again, thank you forjoining us. travel during the festive season can be difficult at the best of times, but throw in disruption, cancellations and additional testing due to the omicron variant and you create a perfect storm yet again for the travel sector. business travel had begun the slow process of recovery with global spend expected to rise in 2022 and fully recover by the end of 2024, but many experts now believe that recovery could be injeopardy. clive wratten is chief executive of the business travel association. good morning to you. just tell us how business travel has been doing, in the second half of this year so far?— doing, in the second half of this year so far? good morning. business travel _ this year so far? good morning. business travel has _ this year so far? good morning. business travel has been - this year so far? good morning. business travel has been pretty| business travel has been pretty much stagnant for 20 months, the last few weeks, particularly since america opened its borders, has seen a real sharp increase, people returning back. domestic business travel picking up through the summer, international travel very slow to get going again, the united states was critical for us to see businesses starting to come back. it's been a really positive a few weeks after a long and difficult time, the current situation we find ourselves in is not helping. you would assume that anyone going on a trip for business will be thinking now because if they have to quarantine when they have to quarantine when they arrived somewhere, or they have to do expensive testing or whatever, or quarantine when they come back home, they will surely cancel the trip? absolutely. any complexity within the business travel world will remove confidence and have people thinking about whether they need to go on the trip and that is really difficult. there are lots of corporate of all sizes particularly small and medium sized enterprises who are desperate to see their customers, business travel is notjust customers, business travel is not just about face—to—face meetings, its construction, humanitarian aid, sports teams caught up in south africa, trying to get back. business travel is a wide—ranging kind of traffic that people have to travel, the reasons they to travel and it is really disruptive to them and in many cases it is their livelihood. these extra restrictions and border closures make it difficult and people choose not to travel instead. we difficult and people choose not to travel instead.— to travel instead. we know for some within — to travel instead. we know for some within the _ to travel instead. we know for some within the travel - some within the travel industry, business travel is critical, especially for airlines but during the pandemic, of course, businesses continued and we have conducted a lot of meetings, international conferences, virtually so actually, and also come up with cup 26 taking place and the attention on climate, people will travel less anyway, wouldn't you argue? business travel has changed in terms of frequency of travel?— of travel? business travel was chan . in: of travel? business travel was changing prior— of travel? business travel was changing prior to _ of travel? business travel was changing prior to the - of travel? business travel was | changing prior to the pandemic and what the pandemic has done is it has accelerated some of that change and you're right, people will switch to video conferencing but there is nothing like the value of meeting in person. to my earlier point, there are many reasons why people travel and you physically cannot do that over a video call, the industry is ready and adapting to that and we understand video conferencing would be part of the picture moving forward but still, business travel and travelling around the world to create a global britain is really important for people going and sitting in front of other people and travelling abroad. ., . abroad. clive, we will watch with interest, _ abroad. clive, we will watch with interest, thank - abroad. clive, we will watch with interest, thank you - abroad. clive, we will watch with interest, thank you for| with interest, thank you for joining us. since the emergence of omicron financial markets have been on a bumpy ride — add to that the latest testimony from the chair of the us central bank who warns inflation may no longer be transitory and you've got a recipe for a sell off and that's just what happened on wall street. rising rates of covid, plus the new variant, pose new risks to the us economy says jerome powell. samira hussain has more from new york. you may have noticed that prices are going up. inflation in most parts of the world is back. but so far in america, the central bank has been promising everyone that it's not back for good. until now. jerome powell had doggedly described inflation as transitory but suddenly on tuesday, he said he won't be calling at that any more. i think the word transitory has different meanings to different people, to it carries a sense of short lived, we tend to use it to mean that it will not leave a permanent mark in the form of higher inflation. i think it's probably a good time to retire that word.— to retire that word. some on wall street _ to retire that word. some on wall street even _ to retire that word. some on wall street even took - to retire that word. some on wall street even took that i to retire that word. some on | wall street even took that to meet mr powell has changed his thinking on inflation and markets drop shortly. it is not actually clear that changing a word means a change in policy but mr powell did more explicitly indicate that the feds bond buying programme may wrap up faster than expected. at this point, the economy is very strong and inflationary pressures are high and it is therefore appropriate in my view to consider wrapping up pay of our asset purchases which we announced at the november meeting, perhaps a few months sooner. it november meeting, perhaps a few months sooner.— months sooner. it may not be welcome _ months sooner. it may not be welcome news _ months sooner. it may not be welcome news for _ months sooner. it may not be welcome news for wall - months sooner. it may not be welcome news for wall street investors but for americans being crushed by the high price of groceries, it might come as some relief. let's look at the markets, in asia, in reaction to all of that, you'd see, they have not followed wall street to the letter, we have japan up by half a %, hong kong over 1% higher in the price of oil bouncing up and let's not forget, the price of oilfell yesterday significantly because of fears of the new variant and whether it will actually build well when it comes to vaccines, how effective current vaccines are. looking at the us board, as samira hussain said, the fallout following on from what jerome powell had to say. let's talk this through with simon french — chief economist at panmure gordon. good morning, your thoughts on whatjerome powell said? i what jerome powell said? i think whatjerome powell said? i think the removal of the word transitory from his lexicon was probably correct. such is the elevated level of commodity prices around the world that inflation will be long lasting and for a lot of people, getting into a definition argument about whether it was time bound or whether it would have as a second order effect is probably not the place jerome powell wanted to be in but in terms of financial markets, they are pricing in this morning, the earlier end asjerome powell alluded to, the federal reserve asset programme but actually probably most relevant is what happens after that in terms of the first rate increase which financial markets are thinking may be one, two macro increases in the second half of the year but will not be drawn forward now? it makes the meeting in the middle of december white cake in terms of communications. ' ., communications. the 15th of december— communications. the 15th of december but _ communications. the 15th of december but what - communications. the 15th of december but what i - communications. the 15th of| december but what i thought communications. the 15th of - december but what i thought was when he said there is an elevated threat of persistently high inflation and then actually, it's seen more broadly across the us economy and if you put that with omicron and the unknown and the uncertainty that brings, you were not surprised at all there was a sell—off on wall street? not at all. omicron itself may well accentuate the inflationary problem, we think about a pandemic as a deflationary cause but consumers go out and bite services, ratchet up their demand for goods which puts more strain on global supply chains which has been the source of a lot of inflationary pressure. but also, i think we must acknowledge that while all governments around the world have undertaken, and central banks, big stimulus programmes to deal with the pandemic it has been most extreme in the us, if inflation is going to be persistent and pick up and will be a policy mistake, it will most likely take place there and i think these cautionary language from jerome powell is about right given the balance of risk. ,, ., . ., , of risk. simon, nice to see ou, of risk. simon, nice to see you. have _ of risk. simon, nice to see you. have a _ of risk. simon, nice to see you, have a lovely - of risk. simon, nice to see you, have a lovely day. - of risk. simon, nice to see - you, have a lovely day. staying with economics. australia's economy shrank by 1.9 per cent betweenjuly and september thanks in part to the impacts of lockdowns in sydney and melbourne. but the contraction is lower than many economists predicted and there's a chance the country may not slip into a technical recession. sarah toms is following the story from our asia business hub in singapore. nice to see you. talk us through how things are going down under? it through how things are going down under?— through how things are going down under? it was much less severe than — down under? it was much less severe than was _ down under? it was much less severe than was feared. - down under? it was much less severe than was feared. the l severe than was feared. the economy shrank nearly 2% in thatjuly and september period. as you said, the decline was blamed on the lockdown is for so many businesses had to close their doors. and it states had to shut their borders in an effort to contain coronavirus. this contraction was lower than many economists had predicted. they were surprised, they were expecting a figure closer to a drop of 2.7% and with so many australians stuck at home, there was a drop in the household spending but the trade surplus and government support payments and stimulus measures, they all helped to cushion the blow and there's now a chance that the economy may not slip into a technical recession. analysts are quite optimistic that that loss quickly be recouped. there is, of course, the upside that with so many australians unable to spend on big ticket items like travel in the third quarter that the savings rate jumped to nearly 20% and that has left consumers with a lot of extra cash in their pockets and it's hoped that it should feel an eventual recovery but that, of course, is if the new omicron variant of covid—19 does not throw a spanner in the works and threaten a pandemic recovery. and threaten a pandemic recovery-— and threaten a pandemic recove . ., ., recovery. thank you for the details on _ recovery. thank you for the details on all _ recovery. thank you for the details on all of _ recovery. thank you for the details on all of that. - recovery. thank you for the details on all of that. you l recovery. thank you for the l details on all of that. you are with bbc news. so much more to come. and even christmas trees could be in short supply this year — we talk to the boss of europe's largest tree wholesaler. it's quite clear that the worst victims of this disaster are the poor people living in the slums which have sprung up around the factory. we feel so helpless. the children are dying in front of me and i can't do anything. charles manson is the mystical leader of the hippie cult suspected of killing sharon tate and at least six other people in los angeles. at 11 o'clock this morning, just half a metre of- rock separated britain i from continental europe. it took the drills just i a few moments to cut through the final obstacle, - then philippe cossette, a miner from calais, was shaking hands and exchanging flags _ with his opposite . number from dover. this is bbc world news, the latest headlines... compulsory vaccinations become a possibility for germany, as the continent struggles with rising infections and fears of the impact of a new variant. former us vice president, mike pence, says there's a chance the country's landmark roe versus wade abortion ruling could be consigned to what he called "the ash heap of history". now, he's developed an app that has helped millions of people around the world learn a new language. but the ceo of duolingo wishes that he — himself — had learned an altogether different kind of lesson early in his career, in order to succeed in business — he's been telling us all about it asa as a ceo, one thing i wish i had concentrated on earlier was my social skills. my myjob is mainly dealing with people. i wish i had understood when i was growing up that that was going to be myjob and i was going to be myjob and i was growing up. i wanted to be academic, a researcher, a mathematician or a scientist or something. i did not spend any effort developing my social skills. in fact, effort developing my social skills. infact, i effort developing my social skills. in fact, i thought lessor of people who were spending effort developing their social skills, spending effort developing theirsocialskills, i spending effort developing their social skills, i thought thatis their social skills, i thought that is not useful. i spent all day long, these days come on people problems. this is the main thing that i do so i have had to catch up a lot! there are people who are amazing at social skills, for example, by looking at body motions, they can tell, that person is in hobby, i cannot tell that, i am not very good at that so i wish i had told myself, develop your social skills more! a lot of management skills or social skills. really interesting, i find those ceo secrets so interesting. let's get some of the day's other news the eu is to reveal details of a global investment plan that's widely seen as a rival to china's belt and road initiative. insiders say it'll set out "concrete" ideas on digital, transport, climate and energy schemes. it's regarded as part of the west's efforts to counter chinese influence in africa and elsewhere. the latest trade data from south korean shows exports were up 32% in november from the same period last year. that's the sharpest rise in three months and the ninth straight month of double—digit expansion. the economic recovery of some of south korea's key trading partners fuelled demand for korean microchips and petroleum products. it's the time of year when many of you will be putting up a christmas tree in your home. an estimated 6 to 8—million christmas trees are sold every year in the uk according to the british christmas tree growers association. but this year, labour shortages, shipping delays and poor weather conditions could lead to less stock. and issues affecting the supply of artificial trees which are mostly imported from china could mean more people could opt for real trees. some growers have supplemented their seasonal workforce with agency staff and booked hgvs earlier to ensure people can buy their real trees once they've been harvested according to bctga. because of the increased costs some have had to raise prices of trees to account for the increased trade price — up to 20 per cent this year. but the message is so far "don't panic! buy as you normally would." joining me now is christopher hood, director and founder, needlefresh. the biggest supplier of trees to uk blue chip businesses, is that right? this is your busiest time of the year, talk us through the challenges you face. ., . �* , us through the challenges you face. ., . �*, , face. correct. it's been probably _ face. correct. it's been probably one _ face. correct. it's been probably one of - face. correct. it's been probably one of the - face. correct. it's been i probably one of the most difficult years i've seen in 20 years. not only are we dealing with significant problems with transport, lorries, but we have also had to very quickly try and grow accustomed to the new labour situation. because we are a seasonal business and we do everything in five minutes, we have two very unusual factors in the industry, the first is we need all our transport all at once, it isn't spread over a period and the other is we need all our labour at once. notjust spread over 52 weeks like most businesses. both of those are significant challenges, especially at the moment. ., ., , challenges, especially at the moment. ., challenges, especially at the moment-— challenges, especially at the moment. ., ., moment. normally, you get that labour moment. normally, you get that iabourthat _ moment. normally, you get that labour that you _ moment. normally, you get that labour that you need _ moment. normally, you get that labour that you need all- moment. normally, you get that labour that you need all at - labour that you need all at once from eastern europe, don't you? once from eastern europe, don't ou? ., ., ., ~ ., ., you? not all of it. we do have a certain _ you? not all of it. we do have a certain amount _ you? not all of it. we do have a certain amount of _ you? not all of it. we do have a certain amount of labour- a certain amount of labour which is, as it were, home—grown. we use quite a lot of local labour to our forms, particularly farmers who are perhaps in the low season that will help us with equipment but there is, just because of the sheer volume of people that we need, it's still a very labour—intensive business and therefore, we do bring in people from eastern europe and, you know, often at the same people come over, year after year and the current regulations have made it extremely difficult for us. the issue is not _ extremely difficult for us. the issue is not that _ extremely difficult for us. the issue is not that there is a lack of trees, it's getting the trees to where they need to be in the short period of time. so will there be a shortage of trees? ., ., _, trees? no, there will not come at the trees — trees? no, there will not come at the trees are _ trees? no, there will not come at the trees are on _ trees? no, there will not come at the trees are on their- trees? no, there will not come at the trees are on their way, l at the trees are on their way, do not panic, we have got this under control but it is taking us longer than normal and on top of that, a lot of trees come out of northern scotland, we have had the weather to contend with, just to make life even more exciting but the trees are under way. we started earlier, it's taking us longer than normal and on top of that, a lot of trees come out of northern scotland, we have had the weather to contend with, just to make life even more exciting but the trees are under way. we started earlier, it's taken us longer. the flow of transport has to be done over a longer period. on the big night, because of the pressures of multiple markets, we would be often putting out 60 or 70 lorries a night, there is not that volume of traffic on one particular night so we have had to even it out over a longer period but do not panic, the trees are on their way. share the trees are on their way. are the trees are on their way. are they going _ the trees are on their way. are they going to _ the trees are on their way. are they going to cost more because of these issues?— of these issues? there is a little bit — of these issues? there is a little bit of _ of these issues? there is a little bit of a _ of these issues? there is a little bit of a premium - of these issues? there is a little bit of a premium on | of these issues? there is a i little bit of a premium on the trees but we are not talking huge money. people when they go and buy their tree this christmas will not actually be particularly concerned, we are talking perhaps 5%, a maximum 10% increase in price which is almost entirely because of the same pressures that everyone else is seeing on transport and diesel and so on.— else is seeing on transport and diesel and so on. quickly, when do ou diesel and so on. quickly, when do you put _ diesel and so on. quickly, when do you put your _ diesel and so on. quickly, when do you put your tree _ diesel and so on. quickly, when do you put your tree up, - diesel and so on. quickly, when do you put your tree up, that's. do you put your tree up, that's the big controversial debate in many hassles, when is the right time? flit many hassles, when is the right time? .., , time? of course, the right time, time? of course, the right time. if— time? of course, the right time. if you _ time? of course, the right time, if you go _ time? of course, the right time, if you go back - time, if you go back traditionally, would be on christmas eve but gradually, people have wanted their trees earlier and i think there's a need to try and get a feel good factor. , , . . , need to try and get a feel good factor. , , . ., , ., , factor. especially at this ear. i factor. especially at this year- i am _ factor. especially at this year. i am so _ factor. especially at this year. i am so sorry - factor. especially at this year. i am so sorry to i year. i am so sorry to interrupt you, we are almost out of time but thank you so much for giving us an update on the situation. i will see you soon. hello there. after a spell of cold weather, the final day of november brought a return to something milder, something much milder, in fact — westerly winds which fed a lot of cloud across the uk but brought temperatures of 12, 13 or 1a degrees in many places. away from the far north, cold air clung on across shetland and that cold air has been staging a return over recent houi’s. this area of low pressure has worked its way through. and that plunge of cold air will continue to take effect as we head through wednesday, the first day of december, the first day of the meteorological winter. and it will feel like it for many of us. there will be some spells of sunshine, but we'll see showers or longer spells of rain drifting southwards, some wintry weather mixing in over high ground, especially across the northern half of the uk. and if we do see any showers into northern scotland through the afternoon, they are likely to fall as snow to very low levels indeed. it will remain windy, particularly gusty winds around the coasts, gusts of a0 to 50 miles per hour and temperatures, if anything, coming down as the day goes on. so afternoon values between two and nine degrees. with that brisk wind, it will feel cold out there. now, through wednesday night, we will see some clear spells, some wintry showers too. could see some snow to relatively low levels across parts of eastern england. certainly snow to low levels in the northern part of scotland and temperatures, well, they will drop very close to freezing, below freezing in places. a widespread frost and perhaps some icy stretches to contend with on thursday morning. still quite breezy to start thursday. still some wintry showers, particularly in the east. but this area of high pressure is going to be trying to build its way in, so that means we will see more in the way of dry weather. as we go through the day, the showers will become fewer and further between. there will be more dry weather, some spells of sunshine, although our next frontal system will be introducing cloud and some rain into northern ireland and the far west of scotland. a very chilly feeling day indeed, highs between three and nine degrees. and then another change in the weather as we move out of thursday into friday. this frontal system pushes eastwards. some snow on its leading edge, but this will be introducing milder air once again from the atlantic, so a bit of rain around in places on friday. there will be some good spells of dry weather as well, but it will feel milder to end the week. good morning, welcome to breakfast withjon kay and sally nugent. our headlines today. the nhs gears up for a major expansion of the vaccine booster programme, with all adults in england to be offered the jab by the end of january. are you saying "don't" to the christmas do? some businesses are reporting increased cancellations since the weekend over omicron fears. we look at how they're coping. disruption for hundreds of thousands of university students across the uk, as lecturers and other staff begin three days of strike action. more than £20 million is pledged to a new hiv action plan on world aids day. we're live in liverpool remembering some of those who lost their lives to the disease. records tumble for england's women.