today we will take an in depth look at inflation as prices head higher worldwide, fuelled by surging energy prices and a major supply chain crisis. in the us the consumer goods giant procter & gamble says it will have to pass on the costs to consumers with prices going up on a range of household goods. michelle fleury has more from new york. the maker of detergent and toothpaste said it would raise prices are going to help it absorb the increase in raw materials and shipping costs it the move by procter & gamble comes as some measures of inflation are already stuck at 30 year highs. the ceo hurled reporters that they would hike prices on a range of beauty and grooming problem dogs including razors and toothbrushes. and thatis razors and toothbrushes. and that is after warning this spring that it would be forced to raise prices on its paper—based product. p&g now expects to sell out $2.1 billion this year on shipping and raw materials after costs rose faster than the $1.9 billion it forecast back in july. with us manufacturers grappling with labour shortages, higher raw material and shipping cost there is still no end in sight for rising prices. the cost of living is beginning to pinch across the uk and europe as well. here in the uk we will get the lastest inflation numbers for september in a few hours�* time. the bank of england has already warned rising prices could cause a sell off in the financial markets with severe consequences for the economy. governor andrew bailey recently warned it "will have to act", suggesting that uk interest rates may soon rise from the historic low of 0.1%. silvia dall�*angelo is senior economist at the international business of federated hermes. good to have you on the programme again. in terms of the inflation numbers today for the inflation numbers today for the uk, what do you expect? today's figures reflect back to september so before the announced hikes kicked in. so inflation will probably remain elevated in september but also little change compared to other matters. it will also be important to monitor and make the breakdown of inflation. price gains are concentrated in sectors most affected by the pandemic, constraints and higher commodity prices. that should be the case again in september. of course, the size of more pervasive inflation should be a concern. looking ahead, the bank of england says that it expects inflation to rise to 4% this winter. zs rise to 496 this winter. 2% above rise to 496 this winter. 296 above its _ rise to 496 this winter. 296 above its own _ rise to 496 this winter. 296 above its own you - rise to 4% this winter. 2% above its own you agree with that? it above its own you agree with that? ., ., a above its own you agree with that? ., ., ~ that? it looks like the inflation _ that? it looks like the inflation picture - that? it looks like the inflation picture will l that? it looks like the | inflation picture will get worse in the short term before it starts to improve. the current gas prices and in general higher energy commodity prices means that inflation will continue to increase in the coming months, in the winter months and it will peak between february and april at 4.5%. that said, it looks like inflation is still transitory inflation is still transitory in nation, these are supply constraints, covid related disruption, high commodity prices so inflation should start to decline in the second half of next year.— half of next year. sorry to interrupt _ half of next year. sorry to interrupt you, _ half of next year. sorry to interrupt you, interesting | half of next year. sorry to - interrupt you, interesting that you say that because we have business leaders meeting with politicians yesterday in parliament and part of their warning was that they foresaw supply chain problems being in place until 2023. it is supply chain problems being in place until 2023.— place until2023. it is true that supply _ place until2023. it is true that supply constraints . place until 2023. it is true | that supply constraints and supply chain disruption will take time to sort out. but i feel that there are also some signs that commodity prices should stabilise after winter and declined somewhat possibly. and also there are basic fact is in place that should bring inflation down on a year—to—year basis. of course, the longer inflation may be day—to—day higher, the risk that that becomes ingrained so i think it is crucial to monitor developments in inflation expectation and the labour market.— labour market. other central banks such — labour market. other central banks such as _ labour market. other central banks such as the _ labour market. other central banks such as the federal. banks such as the federal reserve and the european central bank, if they were to increase interest rates a little bit, to what extent will that curtail inflation do you think? how effective will that tool be? ~ ., ., tool be? well, i think that in the current _ tool be? well, i think that in the current circumstances i the current circumstances monetary policy is probably a limited power to control inflation because inflation is mainly driven by supply constraints, higher commodity prices, and central banks have no power to affect those factors. 0n no power to affect those factors. on top of that, monetary policy so in between inflation will take some time to show up. i would say that there is no quick fix. some governments in europe have decided to cut taxes on energy usage and the uk chancellor may follow in the coming budget but, again, as long as inflation is driven by cost push pressure there is little that policymakers can do to quickly fix it.— quickly fix it. sylvia, thank ou for quickly fix it. sylvia, thank you forjoining _ quickly fix it. sylvia, thank you forjoining us - quickly fix it. sylvia, thank you forjoining us and - quickly fix it. sylvia, thank you forjoining us and as l quickly fix it. sylvia, thankl you forjoining us and as we always ask these economists to great ways into a crystal ball until is what is coming up next we appreciate your predictions. now are you watching squid game? the tv game that is taken —— the game? the tv game that is taken -- the tv game? the tv game that is taken —— the tv show that has taken the world by storm? the world by storm — has helped netflix post its strongest growth in users of the year. the streaming giant has revealed its latest results for the quarterfrom july to september. it added 4.4 million subscribers in that quarter alone — that's more than double the previous quarter and netflix revenuesjumped 16% to $7.48 billion. joining me now is max signorelli, senior analyst, media & entertainment, 0mdia. good to have you on the programme. so, squid game has proven to be a huge hit and has boosted netflix.— boosted netflix. definitely. it is the most — boosted netflix. definitely. it is the most popular _ boosted netflix. definitely. it is the most popular show - boosted netflix. definitely. it| is the most popular show they have ever released, more than 150 million viewers in the first four weeks of release, blowing the other shows out of the water. that is not to say that it the first of its kind to do well. there are other titles that have proven that these kind of shows have powers in other market whether they be subtitled, it does not matter as long as the story is good and the quality of tv works. this kind of content has proven that. ,, , ., ., ., , that. squid game is a drama set in south korea _ that. squid game is a drama set in south korea and _ that. squid game is a drama set in south korea and apparently . in south korea and apparently it is examining the global wealth gap, it is about gaming but as you say, it is subtitled, it is in korean. and then you have money highest in spanish and the option is there to hear it in english if you prefer that it is interesting, isn't it, how people's appetite isn't it, how people's appetite is changing for this type of programming. is changing for this type of programming-— is changing for this type of rotarammin. , , ~ . programming. definitely. again it is not the _ programming. definitely. again it is not the first _ programming. definitely. again it is not the first of _ programming. definitely. again it is not the first of its - it is not the first of its kind. this kind of content can show off the quality of programming from countries or cultures that have not really been experienced properly and some of the markets around the world. korean dramas have proven popular over the last few years, we have seen korean popular movies like parasite but also other exports across the portfolio, even music or other genres of tv content have proven popular. find other genres of tv content have proven mutan— other genres of tv content have proven popular-— proven popular. and the timing of this is so _ proven popular. and the timing of this is so important - proven popular. and the timing of this is so important for - of this is so important for netflix. would you say, given the competition coming from disney plus and apple tv and elsewhere. since the beginning of the pandemic, look netflix has had to stay ahead of its game as much as possible absolutely.— game as much as possible absolutely. game as much as possible absolutel . , . . absolutely. the pash clinic the ressure absolutely. the pash clinic the pressure is — absolutely. the pash clinic the pressure is on _ absolutely. the pash clinic the pressure is on now— absolutely. the pash clinic the pressure is on now more - absolutely. the pash clinic the pressure is on now more than | pressure is on now more than ever. there are new entrants to the market ready to make a substantial impact and take a leading spot among some of the established proprietors, be it netflix or amazon prime video so the way that disney is going it is taking itself to new heights based on its existing portfolio of rights, looking at things like marvel and star wars and taking them to new heights so netflix has to continue rapid investment in content. �* ., , ., content. and for the television industry at _ content. and for the television industry at large _ content. and for the television industry at large because - content. and for the television industry at large because we i industry at large because we talk about netflix but the makers of squid game and those freelance workers who have had this happen, it costs something like $21.3 million to produce but bloomberg says it will be worth something like $900 million for netflix.- million for netflix. and, auain, million for netflix. and, again, that _ million for netflix. and, again, that is _ million for netflix. and, again, that isjust - million for netflix. and, again, that isjust proof| million for netflix. and, - again, that isjust proof that again, that is just proof that some shows really do have a sticking power. articulated sticks in think that the media spreads via word—of—mouth because the shows can have massive unforeseen four and certainly in terms of the number of subscribers that it has driven to the service, although citizens managed to keep the service because of squid games, there is a certain amount of money to be made by netflix. �* , , ., , ., amount of money to be made by netflix. �* , , ., y., ., netflix. and 'ust before you go have ou netflix. and just before you go have you watched _ netflix. and just before you go have you watched the - netflix. and just before you go have you watched the show? l have you watched the show? squid game? i have you watched the show? squid game?— squid game? i have not, my artner squid game? i have not, my partner has- _ squid game? i have not, my partner has. she _ squid game? i have not, my partner has. she was - squid game? i have not, my partner has. she was not. partner has. she was not interested but somebody at work suggested it to her. she watched the whole thing in 28 days of seeing it.— days of seeing it. there you no. days of seeing it. there you go- you _ days of seeing it. there you go. you have _ days of seeing it. there you go. you have lost _ days of seeing it. there you go. you have lost her - days of seeing it. there you go. you have lost her to - days of seeing it. there you i go. you have lost her to squid game. thank you for being on the programme and it is good to see you. have a good day. let's get some of the day's other news. the imf�*s first woman chief economist gita gopinath is set to return to harvard university in january. shejoined the fund in 2019 for a three—year term in which she was behind the creation of a taskforce to deal with the covid—19 pandemic. gopinath also helped set up a team to address the climate crisis. the imf says it'll start looking for a replacement soon. chinese developer sinic holdings has defaulted on $246 million of bonds. it comes just days before a critical deadline for evergrande to pay some of its offshore bondholders. there's fear of the potential spillover effect on the chinese economy caused by a collapse of the property giant. the uk's financial conduct authority has fined credit suisse over £147 million for serious financial crime due diligence failings related to loans worth over us$1.3 billion, which the bank arranged for the republic of mozambique. these loans and a bond exchange were tainted by corruption. credit suisse has also agreed with the fca to forgive us$200 million of debt owed by the republic of mozambique as a result of these tainted loans. a new initiative to force the global shipping industry has been announced. spearheaded by the aspen institute, it is asking participating companies to switch all of their ocean freight to vessels powered by zero—carbon fuels by 2040. it's already got some big names to sign up, including amazon, unilever and ikea. samira hussain reports from new york. this port as the entire country of germany. it is why the swedish furniture maker ikea has said it will encourage the industry to clean up its environmental act with ocean shipping accounting for 40% of all of ikea's transportation, the company plans to use its influence to make maritime shipping less polluting. irate shipping less polluting. we want to use _ shipping less polluting. - want to use vessels that use zero emission fuels and it is about scaling this up and i think right now is the time to really come together and this is the d carbon injourney really come together and this is the d carbon in journey that we need to make together. ikeq we need to make together. ikea is not the only — we need to make together. ikea is not the only company - we need to make together. ikea is not the only company to commit to zero carbon ocean shipping by 2040. amazon has also signed up and so has the consumer goods company unilever. firms in total have agreed to make it happen will require revamp of the entire industry. require revamp of the entire indust . , , ., , industry. this is really important. _ industry. this is really important. you - industry. this is really important. you have l industry. this is really - important. you have open to industry. this is really _ important. you have open to get zero carbon fuels into this marketplace for vessels to be updated, for ports to make infrastructure upgrades, for policy makers to do their part to ensure that this will be a viable transition and all of that will depend so much on the demands signalled from the customers and the shipping industry, these 40 national companies. industry, these 40 national companies-— industry, these 40 national companies. industry, these 40 national comanies. , ., companies. the hope is that the siuanin companies. the hope is that the signing companies _ companies. the hope is that the signing companies can - companies. the hope is that the signing companies can leverage| signing companies can leverage their power as customers to get ship elders to build different chips, forfreight ship elders to build different chips, for freight companies to use different ships and for government to build the necessary infrastructure to support those ships. and now, maybe at the right time as well with so much congestion at many ports lately we have a big reminder ofjust how important reminder of just how important cargo reminder ofjust how important cargo shipping is to the global economy. it is hard to overlook its environmental cost. stay with us on bbc news, still to come: and the book is not dead. in fact, the pandemic has meant an upswing in book sales. we go to the frankfurt book fair to find out more a historic moment that many of his victims had waited for four decades. the former dictator in the dock, older, slimmer and as he sat down, obedient enough. dawn and as the sun breaks through— dawn and as the sun breaks through the piercing chill of night — through the piercing chill of night on _ through the piercing chill of night on the plane outside quorum, it lights up a biblical famine — quorum, it lights up a biblical famine now in the 20th century. the depressing conclusion, in argentina _ the depressing conclusion, in argentina today— the depressing conclusion, in argentina today it _ the depressing conclusion, in argentina today it is - the depressing conclusion, in argentina today it is cheaperl argentina today it is cheaper to paper— argentina today it is cheaper to papervour_ argentina today it is cheaper to paper your walls- argentina today it is cheaper to paper your walls with - argentina today it is cheaper. to paper your walls with money. we had — to paper your walls with money. we had controversies— to paper your walls with money. we had controversies in- to paper your walls with money. we had controversies in the - we had controversies in the past with great britain but as good friends we have always found a good and lasting solution.— found a good and lasting solution. ., _, . found a good and lasting solution. ., . ., solution. concorde bounce out in s le solution. concorde bounce out in style after— solution. concorde bounce out in style after almost _ solution. concorde bounce out in style after almost three - in style after almost three decades in service, an aircraft that has enthralled its many admirers for so long taxis home one last time. this is bbc world news, the latest headlines. a report recommending that steve bannon, a key ally of donald trump, be held in contempt, is approved by us lawmakers investigating january's riot on capitol hill. a leaked brazilian parliamentary report suggests president bolsonaro ought to be charged with murder for mishandling his government's response to the coronavirus pandemic. the chancellor of the exchequer — or uk finance minister — rishi sunak will slash a tax surcharge on bank profits by more than 60 per cent in next week's budget. he hopes this will help the city of london compete in the wake of brexit.allegedly the surcharge will be cut from 8 percent to 3, from april 2023, although the treasary has not confirmed the number. joining me now is fahad kamal, cio at kleinwort hambros . morning to you. we have the spending review coming up and there are all sorts of rumours and speculation as to what will be in it but the treasury has confirmed that this is something likely to be added. what are your thoughts? i think that it is very — what are your thoughts? i think that it is very important - what are your thoughts? i think that it is very important to - that it is very important to recognise that while the headline is surcharges being lowered, what is actually happening under the hood is the taxes on banks are still likely to rise. right now the tax rate is made up of 19% corporate charge plus an 8% surcharge on top which keeps in line with the international banking average. but when taxes rise 25%, and uncheck if position. so i think what the chancellor is trying to do is to make sure we do not end up killing the goose that lays the golden eggs and that is not forget that the financing for the uk that goose producing about 10% of the overall that is an undeniable truth. ~ ., . ., truth. while the financial sector is _ truth. while the financial sector is to _ truth. while the financial sector is to some - truth. while the financial sector is to some degree truth. while the financial - sector is to some degree fairly criticised for being in the centre of the storm these banks are still suffering as a result of the crisis.— still suffering as a result of the crisis. �* , , . , the crisis. and stock prices in many instances _ the crisis. and stock prices in many instances have - the crisis. and stock prices in many instances have not - many instances have not recovered to the highs of those halcyon days and the interest rate environment that we see right now, completely apart from the tax, it remains extremely low and that is very limiting to how much profit and can possibly make. so i think it is a fair point to make that the tax rate should stay compared to the international market. �* , , ., compared to the international market. , , ., ., market. and, briefly, to what extent will — market. and, briefly, to what extent will this _ market. and, briefly, to what extent will this surcharge - market. and, briefly, to what| extent will this surcharge help in that sense, keeping business in that sense, keeping business in london? massively, i think. at the very least it gives banks a fair shot to compete with the global peers and not inadvertently face challenges that competitors abroad do not face. ., ., that competitors abroad do not face. . ~ i. ., that competitors abroad do not face. . ~ ., , ., face. thank you for being on the programme. _ the international publishing industry is gathering for the world's largest book fair in frankfurt which opens today. the industry has been buoyed by the pandemic boost to reading which has seen sales soar in the uk where sales of physical books rose strongly. some 202 million paperbacks and hardbacks were sold in the uk in 2020, according to industry figures from nielsen bookscan. it was a similar picture in the us, where sales hit 751 million last year, the highest figure since 2009. but there are fears books could be the latest commodity to join the supply chain crisis as a global paper shortage could see retailers running out of stock. so what's the next chapter looking like for the global publishing industry? joining me now is bodour al qasimi, president, international publishers association joining us live from frankfurt because you are going to the book fair later. tell us. is there a paper crisis in the offing? hello, everyone, it is lovely to be back at frankfurt and as you know, last year the frankfurt fair was cancelled in its physical format, frankfurt fair was cancelled in its physicalformat, we had to go virtual. so it is really wonderful to be back here in frankfurt and meeting colleagues from around the world. as you know, the frankfurt fair is one of the oldest book fairs and the largest book fairs in the world. it is really an important verbal stage for current debates and discussions about publishing trends but also about social and political trends. as a result there are many experts here, specialists, professionals and global media not to mention the general public who are here to buy books. so in a sense it is great to be back. i consider this year to be a challenging yearfor this year to be a challenging year for the publishing industry. it is important for us to take stock of what is happening and really discuss the future and interact with colleagues from around the world to help us build resilience within our industry. but i asked you about paper. is there an issue in regards to that? don't worry if you don't know the answer. we don't know if it is about to be succumbed something that is hard to get hold of. i something that is hard to get hold of. ., , something that is hard to get hold of. ., ., ,., ., something that is hard to get hold of. ., ., ., , hold of. i was about to answer the question. _ hold of. i was about to answer the question, i— hold of. i was about to answer the question, i was _ hold of. i was about to answer the question, i wasjust - the question, i was just excited about being back here and i wanted to set the stage for our listeners today to know how significant it is to be back at frankfurt again after such a long hiatus. paper is an important discussion and we have an event today about sustainability and publishing and about how the publishing industry can really be more sustainable forward. of course, the moving pandemic has really shown the cracks in our industry and has given us an opportunity to assess what we need to fix as publishers but not only as publishers, the whole value change. books, library's, authors illustrators distributors, they will need to come together and work on strategy to make sure that our industry resilient moving forward. �* industry resilient moving forward-— industry resilient moving forward. �* , , ., forward. and, briefly, for someone _ forward. and, briefly, for someone who _ forward. and, briefly, for someone who is - forward. and, briefly, for someone who is writing l forward. and, briefly, forj someone who is writing a forward. and, briefly, for- someone who is writing a book, many tried during the pandemic, what is the most important thing? we flee.— what is the most important thing? we flee. what is the most important thin ? we flee. ., ., thing? we flee. you need a good ublisher thing? we flee. you need a good publisher and _ thing? we flee. you need a good publisher and i _ thing? we flee. you need a good publisher and i just _ thing? we flee. you need a good publisher and i just want - thing? we flee. you need a good publisher and i just want to - publisher and i just want to reiterate how important it is for the publishing industry to survive and i also want to mention that this year we are celebrating 100 and 25 years so we have been hearing long time and i it is important for us to build stronger relations between authors and publishers and illustrators in the whole value chain of publishing. we also announced a report called the inspire report about the sustainability of the industry and are powering the way forward for everyone in the industry. i forward for everyone in the industry-— industry. i am sorry to interrupt _ industry. i am sorry to interrupt you. - industry. i am sorry to interrupt you. enjoy i industry. i am sorry to i interrupt you. enjoy and i industry. i am sorry to - interrupt you. enjoy and i can tell you are extremely excited. we have to leave it there, we are out of time. have a lovely day and we will see you soon. still very balmy out there for some of us for a late october night. 15—16 celsius, and wednesday promises to be another mild day. quite breezy and lots of showers in the forecast, too. 0ur tropical air arrived a couple of days ago, it's still with us, it was very warm yesterday in the south southeast, 21 celsius — we won't quite get that today, but i want to show you the origins of this current affair, so this is the north atlantic and it's all very warm air across the atlantic, and here we have the caribbean. this is where the air has come from — it's obviously cooled, but it's still pretty balmy over this part of europe. now this is what it looks like early in the morning — there is some rain around, a wet start to the day in east anglia and the southeast, lots of heavy showers approaching cornwall, devon, parts of wales too. in fact, these are heavy, thundershowers — and through the morning and into the afternoon, they could bring gusts of wind, as well, but some sunny spells, so quite a changeable day for england and wales. but for northern ireland and most of scotland, it should be dry and bright — but notice in the northwest highlands here, somewhat weather come the afternoon. so i say mild again, 18 celsius expected in the southeast and east anglia. now into the week, or thursday onwards, it'll turn quite a bit colder — in fact, a reversal in the wind direction is expected wednesday into thursday. in fact, around this area of low pressure, the winds will start to come in from the north. now right now at this moment, the winds are coming in from the south to southwest. on thursday, they're coming in almost from the north — this is arctic air, in fact, some of the showers across scotland could be wintry, the winds will be strong anyway particularly along the north sea coast, touching gailforce. i mean, gusts inland will be around 40mph or so, so it'll feel relatively cold compared to what we've got right now. and these are the temperatures, the high temperatures on thursday —11—13 in the south, single figures in the north, and once again, wintry showers are possible across the mountains of scotland. now thursday night into friday, the wind dies down as the low pressure pulls away, and in fact a high pressure develops across the uk briefly in what we call a ridge of high pressure. there'll be some sunshine around, as well, but it won't go quite so cold on friday because the winds will be light, still only around 13 celsius. bye— bye. good morning, welcome to breakfast with sally nugent and charlie stayt. 0ur headlines today. health leaders call for the immediate return of covid restrictions like face masks and home working, as they warn the nhs in england is stumbling into a winter crisis. are you feeling the financial pinch? good morning. the latest inflation figures are out in an hour, expected to show prices are rising at a rapid rate. i take a look at the squeeze on family budgets. the terrible cost of living with extreme sickness in pregnancy — thousands of women share their experiences. good morning. in sport, salah shines again and scores again — two more for the liverpool forward to win a champions league thriller in spain. good morning.

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