britain's manufacturers are beginning to see a recovery as demand in the uk increases and major markets begin to pick up — that's according to a survey published today by the manufacturers�* organisation make uk. but while uk orders are rising, export orders have declined as businesses both in the uk and eu are yet to settle into the new uk—eu trading arrangements. last friday the office for national statistics said uk goods exports to the european union fell by almost a1% in january, while imports tumbled 28.8%. the figures were the biggest drop since records began in 1997, and are the first since new trading rules between the uk and the eu came into force. so will exports recover? stephen phipson is chief executive of make uk. nice executive of make uk. to talk to you. start with your nice to talk to you. start with your survey, tell us how widespread it was and why you say the data gives you optimism about what is ahead? we say the data gives you optimism about what is ahead?— about what is ahead? we see optimism _ about what is ahead? we see optimism in _ about what is ahead? we see optimism in domestic - about what is ahead? we see l optimism in domestic demand, that has been an important part of it. the largest manufacturing sector has done well over the past few months, as well as electronic sectors. some of our export markets are picking up. but you're quite right to point out that the eu is our biggest export market. it accounts for huge amount of trade and we have all of that integrated into our manufacturing with continental european countries. a falloff in that and the impact of what has happened with the new trading cooperation agreement is the reason why that trade is down significantly at the moment. down significantly at the moment-— down significantly at the moment. ~ , . ., ., moment. we expected that trade to be down _ moment. we expected that trade to be down significantly - moment. we expected that trade to be down significantly in - to be down significantly in january and february because many companies decided to down tools for a period of time until the thing is that the borders work themselves out. what do you think the long—term picture will be for the first half of this year and beyond, in terms of our exports to europe? in terms of our exports to ewen?— in terms of our exports to euroe? ~ . ., , europe? what we have seen, sadl , it europe? what we have seen, sadly. it split _ europe? what we have seen, sadly, it split into _ europe? what we have seen, sadly, it split into two - sadly, it split into two groups. larger companies have coped fairly well with it. under the burden of quite a lot of cost increases with the bureaucracy. the smaller companies which makes up the majority of manufacturers and those in the supply chain have had a challenging time. not only is it the export controls, which means navigating several systems if you have never exported before, that is quite a challenge. rules of origin, the idea of being able to track where the parts are coming from so you can prove we have the correct level of uk content is proving to be challenging for smaller businesses, as well as access to customs brokers to advise them, freight costs. this has created a substantial challenge for those businesses. we are right to say that in january we saw a very significant reduction in exports to the eu. some of that was because manufacturers prepared in november and december, stockpiling to get things ready so they didn't have to go straight into the new systems from day one. longer time, new systems from day one. longertime, it new systems from day one. longer time, it will be quite challenging for many of those companies to recover their position. in terms of being able to navigate the bureaucracy in an economic fashion. it is that we need to try to work on to make it better for the future. absolutely vital. better for the future. absolutel vital. , , , absolutely vital. very briefly, for food manufacturers - absolutely vital. very briefly, for food manufacturers and l for food manufacturers and exporters, things will be tougher in april when new measures come into force? if they have multiple ingredients, they have multiple ingredients, the level of bureaucracy is really high, isn't it?- really high, isn't it? the thing to _ really high, isn't it? the thing to think _ really high, isn't it? the thing to think about, - really high, isn't it? tue: thing to think about, we're just at the beginning of the process. not only do have further controls going into exports, we have the import regime which has been delayed. talking about materials coming into the country from the eu. and then several of the major parts yet to be fully implemented, the marking of products and the transit of professional qualification workers to other countries. there is a lot to go and each stage adds more cost and bureaucracy. we need to make that as efficient as we possibly can.- that as efficient as we possibly can. that as efficient as we ossibl can. ., ~ ., possibly can. thank you for our possibly can. thank you for your time. _ possibly can. thank you for your time, good _ possibly can. thank you for your time, good to - possibly can. thank you for your time, good to talk - possibly can. thank you for your time, good to talk to l possibly can. thank you for - your time, good to talk to you. more now on italy and its move to tighten restrictions from today with shops, restaurants and schools closing in most of the country — and nationwide over easter. the tougher curbs on economic activity and freedom of movement is to try to control a rise in covid—i9 infections. prime minister mario draghi said he wants to support the virus—hit economy and would put forward a new decree this week to extend furlough schemes, bolster income support and simplify procedures to compensate firms whose revenue have been hit by covid closures. this package of measures, worth just over $38 billion, was budgeted for previously but now draghi has said he would ask parliament for authorisation to increase spending further. nicola mobile is lead economist at oxford economics. good to have you on the programme. just go through the impact this third lockdown will have on the italian economy? indeed, what has been happening, as you said most of the regions now are placed in the regions now are placed in the stricter categories and these were last at least until easter. we are coming from a february in which we were seeing most of the regions in the less strict categories. it depends on the health situation because we have this semiautomatic system in place in italy in which some metrics we can put some of the regions automatically in the stricter categories. overall, we were factoring in the dynamics for the italian economy already in the italian economy already in the last month, because we were not expecting the february situation to last. for italy, what we expect is a continuation of a recession in 01 after the 2% drop that we have seen in gdp in queue for last year and for the moment, we keep on factoring in 0.5% for italy in 01. of course, some of the services will be hit more. for instance, the tourism —related one, but i will stress the point that this on and off dynamics will continue until vaccination will pick up. is continue until vaccination will ick u -. , ., ., continue until vaccination will --icku. , ., ., ., pick up. is there a lot of confidence _ pick up. is there a lot of confidence in _ pick up. is there a lot of confidence in terms - pick up. is there a lot of confidence in terms of l pick up. is there a lot of - confidence in terms of mario draghi,, his financialsupport? draghi,, his financial support? what draghi,, his financialsupport? what we have been seeing and what we will probably continue to see is fiscal easing will continue until at least the mid—year. you were mentioning the new measures that will probably be passed this week, so fiscal easing will continue in the short—term, unemployment support and other kinds of particularly to businesses that have been hit the most. definitely this is probably similar to what we have seen with the previous government. maybe the main difference now is the vaccination plan which has been presented recently, a couple of days ago. basically suggests we will reach herd immunity by the summer. mil immunity by the summer. all riaht, immunity by the summer. all right, thank you very much for your time explaining the in italy. let's get some of the day's other news. british airways is planning to make it easier for passengers to prove they are safe to travel once they have been vaccinated against covid. under the plans, people who have had both jabs will be able to register their status on ba's smartphone app. the uk government has said it will give the go—ahead for a return to international travel on 17 may at the earliest. global sales of weapons in the 2016 to 2020 period stayed flat for the first time in more than a decade. that's according to the stockholm international peace institute. the research firm says it's too early to tell if the slowdown in sales will continue, as a growing perception of china as a threat has become a driverfor arms purchases in recent years. starting today, it will be easier for foreigners to enter china from hong kong — if they've had the chinese—made vaccine. authorities say travellers could face less paperwork and skip requirements for a covid—i9 test. china's vaccine — coronavac — has not been approved by many western countries so far. economic data just out from china shows an impressive rebound from the pandemic slump of a year ago. figures for industrial output, retail sales, and property investment all outperformed expectations in january and february. sharanjit leyl in our asia business hub has been crunching the numbers. what can you tell us? you mentioned industrial output retail sales, they surged in the first two months of the year. industrial production spiking over 35% from last year, the biggest bounce in decades. retailsales year, the biggest bounce in decades. retail sales beat expectations, up almost 34%. those numbers were very much due to the fact that china's economy is rebounding from a very low base. first hit lashed year at the start of the pandemic when there were various shutdowns are factories and manufacturing. the world's largest economy became the first to bounce back after the strict lockdowns and it clocked full economic growth of 2.3%. this is data forjanuary and february that was released together. this is to reduce the influence of the uncertainties brought about by the chinese holiday, which typically falls within this period. industrial activity was boosted by the fact that many migrant workers were discouraged from returning to their home towns this year because of covid—i9 restrictions. meaning some factories remained open through the holiday or reopened sooner. it is the rebound in foreign demand that has helped push expert growth higher for china. the chinese government has said a fairly modest —— set a modest annual growth this year, even though analysts are tipping growth at 8%. this is in spite of the government imposing travel restrictions before the chinese new year, which took place in february.— place in february. thank you very much- _ one industry feeling the heat from global warming is the wine business. many grape—growing regions are becoming too hot and dry to produce high—quality vintages, forcing some winemakers to literally uproot their vineyards. phil mercer visited one in orange, about 150 miles from sydney, which is making a decisive move to escape the heat. historically, we have produced some beautiful chardonnay, but we are becoming very concerned, so there is an investment in the scientific factors of global warming. winemakerjames robson is trying to stay one step ahead of climate change. that the vineyard is now too low, which means it is too hot. he is planting a new vineyard on higher ground mount canobolas in orange, because, further down, it is becoming increasingly unsuitable for his prized white wine crop, that needs cooler temperatures. what we are really concerned about here is that with white wine, or chardonnay, is that that lower vineyard is being affected by climate change. the absolute advantage that orange has, is that, as it gets hotter, wejust keep moving up the hill. if it is too hot, the grapes can be cooked on the vine, and ruined. moving the chardonnay crop a few hundred metres up the mountain is an insurance policy against climate change in australia. at this elevation it can be between 2—3 degrees cooler than at the further down the slopes. it's a long—term strategy. it could be a decade before a premium wine is made. it's scary. you know, we are producing a fruit that is completely dictated by the climate, and a lot of people say that viticulture, which is the growing of grapes, is the canary in the coal mine for agriculture. baking hot days have always been part of the australian story. but scientists warn that the climate is becoming warmer and drier. analysis by the independent climate council predicts that the economic costs of global warming in australia could be monumental. i would say it's the greatest challenge australia faces. $100 billion a year in economic losses within the next 20 years or so, and as we get through our children's lifetime, we are talking about a covid sized impact every year. you know, this is the scale of economic disruption. the higher vineyards are better for pinot grigio, chardonnay,... for now, there is enough space forjames robson to plant new vines even further up the mountain, to escape the impact of climate change, but other growers in australia won't have that luxury. phil mercer, bbc news, orange, in new south wales. stay with us on bbc news, still to come. the ultimate staycation. take your house with you... we explore the boom in caravaning. today, we have closed the book on apartheid, and that chapter. more than 3000 subway passengers were affected. nausea, bleeding, headaches and a dimming of vision. all of this caused by an apparently organised attack. the trophy itself was on a pedestal in the middle of the cabinet here. now, this was an international trophy, and we understand that the search for it has become an international search. above all, this was a triumph for the christian democrats of the west, offering reunification as quickly as possible, and that's what the voters wanted. this is bbc world news, the latest headlines. boris johnson expresses his "deep concerns" — about footage showing police officers detaining women — at a vigil in memory of sarah everard. martial law is imposed in more areas of yangon after one of the deadliest days since protests began against the myanmar coup last month. now, what is the most valuable private company that silicon valley has produced? you may be excused if you never heard of it. it's a digital payment processor called stripe and it's valued at $95 billion after its latest funding round. it was founded in 2010 by two irish brothers, now in their early 30s, and its valuation has more than tripled in the last year. joining me now is russ mould, investment director, aj bell. this is all over the front page of the financial times this morning, stripe, who knew? i didn't know it was worth $95 billion, but we use it for our payments with the england and wales cricket board. i understand they have raised a lot of money and their ambition is to expand across europe, so will we all be using stripe soon? it will we all be using stripe soon? , . will we all be using stripe soon? , , , soon? it is a possibility, they are big in _ soon? it is a possibility, they are big in america _ soon? it is a possibility, they are big in america and - soon? it is a possibility, they are big in america and they l are big in america and they have made their money by providing transactions, refunds and payment mechanisms on facebook, zoom. they have been in the right place at the right time. one of the brothers claims they process 5000 transactions a second and they are looking to expand into brazil, asia and further across europe. it is very possible and they will be looking to give they will be looking to give the major established banks a good run for their money. when ou look good run for their money. when you look at _ good run for their money. when you look at the _ good run for their money. when you look at the people - good run for their money. when you look at the people they - good run for their money. when you look at the people they are | you look at the people they are putting around them as they expand, mark carney, the former governor of the bank of england has been appointed to the board? , , ., ., ., , board? yes, they have a heavy hittin: board? yes, they have a heavy hitting board — board? yes, they have a heavy hitting board and _ board? yes, they have a heavy hitting board and some - board? yes, they have a heavy hitting board and some have . hitting board and some have interpreted that to mean that maybe they are looking to become a public company and float on the stock market. but again, they have come up with a brilliant idea and they are smart enough to know they don't have the answers and they need to surround themselves with good people. i to surround themselves with good people-— to surround themselves with aood --eole. , ., , good people. i understand they first went to — good people. i understand they first went to silicon _ good people. i understand they first went to silicon valley - good people. i understand they first went to silicon valley in i first went to silicon valley in their teens and created a company back then and they sold it and became millionaires in their teenagers. they sound like serial entrepreneurs, but why did they have to go to silicon valley? why is it always there we see these companies are erupting? ii always there we see these companies are erupting? if you look at some _ companies are erupting? if you look at some of— companies are erupting? if you look at some of their _ companies are erupting? if you look at some of their backers, | look at some of their backers, they have just raised millions of dollars to get the valuation. one of the companies got involved was an american adventure capital company. to be based in the valley, there is a huge amount of money there and the experience that major capital backers provide, they are used to nurturing these companies. look at the companies. look at the companies they are able to piggyback off, and grow with, facebook, so there is an ecosystem that provides a very rich territory. the uk is trying to copy that now, so hopefully it can. irate trying to copy that now, so hopefully it can.— hopefully it can. we are keeping _ hopefully it can. we are keeping an _ hopefully it can. we are keeping an eye - hopefully it can. we are keeping an eye on - hopefully it can. we are i keeping an eye on stripe. hopefully it can. we are - keeping an eye on stripe. thank you for being on the programme. camping and caravan holidays boomed in popularity last year and it's set to be a similar story this year, with bookings already reported to be surging. 2020 was said to be the busiest year the caravan sector has had for 15 years — a boon for the industry, which employs about 130,000 people. so how are these companies preparing for the end of lockdown in the uk? joining me now is harvey alexander, board director of the caravan and motorhome club. good morning to you. a couple of incredible years for your industry, is that mainly because of the pandemic and people felt it was a safe way to do holidays?— people felt it was a safe way to do holidays? absolutely. we have been _ to do holidays? absolutely. we have been increasing _ to do holidays? absolutely. we have been increasing over- to do holidays? absolutely. we have been increasing over the i have been increasing over the years dramatically anyway, but during the pandemic, it is a way for people to get away safely in their own environment and get into the great outdoors. in and get into the great outdoors.— and get into the great outdoors. , ., outdoors. in terms of the caravanning _ outdoors. in terms of the caravanning industry - outdoors. in terms of the i caravanning industry itself, i find in the uk if i look to try to book a camping holiday the frustration is, everything is fully booked and there is no space? fully booked and there is no sace? ,, . , ., space? since the beginning of the ear space? since the beginning of the year we — space? since the beginning of the year we have _ space? since the beginning of the year we have seen - space? since the beginning of i the year we have seen probably 100,000 knights being booked every single week. you can see the demand for extra pitches is amazing. we are doing everything we can to put on as many as we possibly can to ensure that as many members can get out and enjoy the great outdoors. get out and en'oy the great outdoors._ get out and en'oy the great outdoors. , ., , , ., outdoors. presumably, more eo - le outdoors. presumably, more people owning _ outdoors. presumably, more people owning a _ outdoors. presumably, more people owning a motorhome| outdoors. presumably, more i people owning a motorhome or outdoors. presumably, more - people owning a motorhome or a caravan as prices of the actual caravans and motorhomes gone through the roof as well? i don't think so much the new market but the second—hand market but the second—hand market is really held its value. people are desperate to try and get hold of these vehicles. in try and get hold of these vehicles.— try and get hold of these vehicles. , ., vehicles. in terms of hiring them, prices _ vehicles. in terms of hiring them, prices going - vehicles. in terms of hiring them, prices going up - vehicles. in terms of hiring them, prices going up and| them, prices going up and because of high demand? enormous demand for higher vehicles. we have seen a huge increase in higher vehicles across our sites in the uk. hope across our sites in the uk. how are ou across our sites in the uk. how are you going _ across our sites in the uk. how are you going to _ across our sites in the uk. how are you going to sustain - across our sites in the uk. how are you going to sustain this demand and excitement about caravanning once the pandemic does, you know, change that about not expecting it to go away but with covid—19 under control and we can holiday normally and book holidays normally, how will you keep this demand in place? people are starting — this demand in place? people are starting to _ this demand in place? people are starting to experience - are starting to experience caravanning and motorhomes and going out across the uk. with 200 sites across the uk and 2500 mini sites, there is still so much left to explore and members have stayed with us for 2530 years, it doesn't mean it will be their primary holiday every year but it is a great way of getting away for a weekend. —— 25 to 30 years. this weekend. -- 25 to 30 years. as the weekend. —— 25 to 30 years. as the demand has increased, has there been investment in the facilities in the campsite in the experience you get when you go camping?— go camping? absolutely. we continue to _ go camping? absolutely. we continue to invest _ go camping? absolutely. we continue to invest in - go camping? absolutely. we continue to invest in our - continue to invest in our network and we spent about £10 million a year and ijust keeping those quality and standards up or trying to buy new sites to give more options to our members. this year we put in a couple of pop—up campsites. we are trying to give members an opportunity to p0p up give members an opportunity to pop up in different locations across the uk and spend a week or so. across the uk and spend a week orso. i across the uk and spend a week or so. . , , or so. i am sure we will see --eole or so. i am sure we will see people popping _ or so. i am sure we will see people popping up - or so. i am sure we will see people popping up all- or so. i am sure we will see people popping up all overl or so. i am sure we will see i people popping up all over the place. thank you very much, harvey alexander, are you a fan of camping caravanning? let me know. you are up—to—date with business. if you are watching bbc one, breakfast will begin in around five minutes. on bbc world, i willjoin you soon. this high pushing up from the south—west. not an entirely straightforward and there will be some weather fronts running into the north of our high that missionary rain across the south—east of england and then more collaborating into the west as the day goes on. rain across northern ireland, western scotland and the south—west on monday afternoon. the wind is much lighter than we have been used to. the sunshine in the east should cling on until the evening. temperature is about where we would expect for the time of year, perhaps a degree or so above. through monday evening, overnight and into tuesday the warm weather front continues to pushit warm weather front continues to push it eastwards across uk and the cold front pushes down from the cold front pushes down from the north. the air around it comes from the atlantic, so don't be too concerned about the temperatures falling behind this front as it slide south during tuesday. some cloud, light rain across england and wales first thing but a lot of sunshine in the afternoon. temperatures looking healthy, perhaps up to 1a degrees. may get a bit of cloud lingering across the south—east of england. potentially overnight tuesday and into wednesday, but wednesday the high is well established and a lot of sunshine on the way. perhaps the cloud at times coming into the cloud at times coming into the far east of england. more cloud for scotland could give us the odd light shower. but with plenty of sunshine, a fine day with temperatures up to maybe 12 or 13 degrees again. from mid week onwards, wednesday night, quite a significant change. the high is still there but this load runs into scandinavia and it switches our wind direction to a more north—easterly and we not only see the wind strengthening, but much colder airflooding. we strengthening, but much colder air flooding. we lose them out there that came from the atlantic and it is replaced by cold, arctic air for thursday and friday. here is your week and friday. here is your week and we start feeling springlike, fine weather and sunshine. by the end of the week you could feel chilly with potentially north—easterly winds. good morning, welcome to breakfast with dan walker and louise minchin. our headlines today: borisjohnson expresses his "deep concern" about footage of police officers breaking up the vigil on clapham common, held in memory of sarah everard. the prime minister will chair a crime and justice summit today, following strong criticism of the metropolitan police — its head dame cressida dick insists she won't resign. what has happened makes me more determined, not less, to lead my organisation. it's back to school for more pupils in scotland today, as lockdown restrictions are eased — while wales becomes the first part of the uk where you can book a haircut.

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