Market Watch 666 For 28February 2021
Fourth quarter GDP revision; January’s income and outlays, durable goods, and new home sales
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This week also had the release of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for January, a weighted composite index of 85 different economic metrics, which rose to +0.66 in January from +0.41 in December, which was revised from the +0.52 reported for December last month. after revisions, the 3 month average of the CFNAI slipped to +0.47 in January from a revised +0.60 in December, which still indicates that national economic activity has been somewhat above the historical trend over recent months.in addition, the week also saw the Case-Shiller Home Price Index for December from S&P Case-Shiller, which reported that home prices nationally during October, November and December averaged 12.4% higher than prices for the same homes that sold during the same
GBP/USD had its first losing week in almost two months, as the US dollar rebounded.
The upcoming week has five releases, including PMIs.
Here is an outlook for the highlights and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.
UK employment numbers were stronger than expected. Unemployment claims fell by 20 thousand, the first drop in three months. Wage growth continues to accelerate and hit 4.7% in December, up from 4.1%. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.1%. At a parliamentary hearing, BoE policymakers said they did not expect inflation to shoot above the bank’s 2% inflation target
In the US, Fed Chair Powell had a dovish message for the markets in his testimony before Congress. Second-estimate GDP for Q4 came in at 4.1%, revised upwards from 4.1%. There was positive news from Durable Goods reports, with strong acceleration in January. The headline read jumped 3.4% while Core Durable Goods rose 1.4%.
The Canadian dollar posted sharp losses at the end of the week and USD/CAD rose close to 1 percent on the week.
There are four events in the upcoming week, including GDP. Here is an outlook for the highlights and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.
Canada’s data calendar was light last week. Corporate Profits posted a second straight gain, at 7.9%. On the inflation front, the Raw Materials Price Index rose 5.7%, above expectations and its highest gain since January.
In the US, Fed Chair Powell had a dovish message for the markets in his testimony before Congress. Second-estimate GDP for Q4 came in at 4.1%, revised upwards from 4.1%. There was positive news from Durable Goods reports, with strong acceleration in January. The headline read jumped 3.4% while Core Durable Goods rose 1.4%.
EUR/USD was down sharply on Friday and posted a losing week.
There are seven events on the calendar this week, including PMIs and eurozone inflation.
H
ere is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
German Ifo Business Climate improved to 92.4, up from 90.1. This marked a 5-month high. However, German GfK Consumer Climate came in at -12.9, marking an 11th successive decline. France, the second-largest economy in the eurozone, showed a 1.4% contraction in GDP in Q4 of 2020. Eurozone headline CPI gained 0.9% and the core reading climbed 1.4% in January. This confirmed the original estimate.