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The US economy continues to recover, as consumer spending showed strong gains in March. The Eurozone continues to grapple with high Covid rates and many parts of Western Europe are under lockdown. In the UK, a successful vacccine rollout has led to further easing in health restrictions.
In the upcoming week, the ECB and Bank of Canada will hold policy meetings. The UK releases key inflation and employment data.
Eurozone CPI posted a gain of 1.3% in March, up from 0.9% a month earlier. Inflation remains below the ECB target of 2% but is gaining strength.
In the UK, March PMIs signaled strong economic growth. Services PMI improved to 56.3, up from 49.5. This was well into expansionary territory, above the 50-level. Construction PMI jumped to 61.7, up from 53.3. This showed the strongest rate of construction output growth since September 2014.
GBP/USD had its first losing week in almost two months, as the US dollar rebounded.
The upcoming week has five releases, including PMIs.
Here is an outlook for the highlights and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.
UK employment numbers were stronger than expected. Unemployment claims fell by 20 thousand, the first drop in three months. Wage growth continues to accelerate and hit 4.7% in December, up from 4.1%. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.1%. At a parliamentary hearing, BoE policymakers said they did not expect inflation to shoot above the bank’s 2% inflation target
In the US, Fed Chair Powell had a dovish message for the markets in his testimony before Congress. Second-estimate GDP for Q4 came in at 4.1%, revised upwards from 4.1%. There was positive news from Durable Goods reports, with strong acceleration in January. The headline read jumped 3.4% while Core Durable Goods rose 1.4%.