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Jonathan Milne of Newsroom.co.nz16:00, May 12 2021
Amid all the noisy talk of constraints on LVRs, DTIs and interest-only loans, the Reserve Bank has quietly floated the possibility of wielding a fourth tool: treating home loans as higher risk and so increasing the capital requirements for banks to lend against residential property. The Reserve Bank is on the verge of implementing new rules requiring banks to hold more capital to make the banking system safer, after drawn-out consultation and Covid delays. The four large banks must increase their total capital ratios from 10.5 per cent to 18 per cent, smaller banks must increase their capital to 16 per cent.
The recent announcement that Westpac is “reviewing” ownership of its New Zealand business caused some speculation the decision might be due to the bank’s lower profitability. But this would be unlikely grounds for a sale, and was more a consequence of COVID-19’s impact than anything.
In fact, Westpac’s New Zealand profits should be considerably higher this year close to NZ$1 billion, as opposed to the $550 million in the previous year (to September 30 2020). Based on past experience, a sale price of $10 billion (AU$9 billion) would not be unreasonable, possibly even higher.
More likely, the proposed sale is due to the complex and conflicting regulatory requirements of the Australian and New Zealand banking supervisors. We saw this in the decision of the New Zealand supervisor, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), to require banks to be positioned for “open bank resolution” (OBR).