topic is fodder for partisan dis putt, even the weather. especially the weather. many republicans arguing that vladimir putin intervened in crimea because of president obama s weakness. putin saw that obama didn t want to go to war in syria, for example, and this emboldened putin. well who knows, right? it s tough to know what would have happened in an alternative universe. imagine that we still had putten around in charge of russia but imagine he faced a different president, one who was tough, aggressive no compunctions about invading countries. wait, we ran that experiment in 2008. putin faced george w. bush, a president who had invaded afghanistan and iraq for good measure, in the latter case, defying massive international pressure and opposition, and yet, putin invaded georgia. and not as he did this time in a stealthy way with soldiers who were already there who switched
narratives of how we came to this crisis. putin wants us to go back to february 21st when the deal brokered by the u.n. foreign ministers was destroyed in the streets. but we can t turn history back. but he says that s where we need to talk. if we do that, i think negotiations can begin and i can imagine an outcome that would avoid war. s. steve, resolve this for us. history of ukraine/russia. is ukraine deeply divided and therefore is going to be potentially highly unstable, or is it at the end of the day a majority of ukrainians, particularly the next generation as chrystia is suggesting, really want to be part of the west? ukraine is a wreck. it does destroyed by ukrainian elites. every ukraine since 1991 has ripped off that country, ripped off everything that wasn t nailed down and then ripped off
their uniforms, he sent in russian tanks, roaring into georgia, and without any referendums, simply annexed two pieces of that country. does this prove that bush was a wi wimpp after all? it doesn t. there has been some very good and careful scholarship by daryl press and jonathan mercer, among others, that looks at historical cases to figure out whether having a reputation for toughness actually deters your opponents from doing bad things like invading countries. in general, the answer is no. countries make these decisions based on many factors, but the most important ones seem to be a careful analysis of the power dynamics of the specific case. in ukraine, russia would ask, is this a vital interest of the united states. and what is washington s capacity to act in this particular situation. in other words, putin would look at hiss cards, washington s
guessing, educating guessing, putin will send the 150,000 troops he was practicing last week, into southern and eastern ukraine. that will be the cuban missile crisis plus, and you know how close we came to war. therefore, your point in your lead, is how do we get people to sit down and let me say one thing about this. putin doesn t trust or like obama. he thinks he s weak, irresolute and doesn t keep his word. putin trusts merkel, the chancellor of germany. merkel has to come into this and talk to both of these leaders now, today and i assume she is. stephen kotkin, last thoughts, we ve got about a minute. what you ve got here is finding a way for putin to climb down without losing face domestically in a way that is acceptable to the eu, the u.s., but above all to ukraine.
cards and the specifics of the situation in ukraine rather than assuming because bush inviteded iraq he would defend georgia or because obama didn t invade syria he would do nothing about ukraine. politicians in washington are convinced that putin was encouraged by western weakness. it s actually quite possible that he, putin, felt he was acting to stop the west s growing strength. look at the situation from russian eyes. in 1991, moscow gave up its 75-year-old soviet empire. it also gave up large parts of its 300-year-old russian empire, including ukraine. since then, its historical rival, nato, has expanded closer and closer to moscow s borders and then the west encouraged ukrainians to take to the streets and depose their president who had close ties to moscow. none of this excuses aggression or justifies putin s response, but if we re going to find a political solution in ukraine