Lets start with the global level and the most important implication at the global level is the increase in Oil Exports Iran as a result of lifting sanctions. See, when sanctions were tightened, when the European Union tightened sanctions in 2012, there was a precipitous trop in iran positive will exports by roughly a Million Barrels a day. For laterso notice that the opposition of trading partners also shifted. In the tradewas with western europe, whereas trade with partners, the oil exports to eastern partners increased in some cases in proportion was much larger. We set as a first approximation t irans oil experts exports were going to grow by about a Million Barrels a day in thet six to 12 months after accord is ratified. Expect isat people the time needed to bring production backup to this level. We took that assumption of a Million Barrels a day and simulated it in a alltime country equilibrium model, multiple countries trading with each other, then we insert an additional Million
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