Lets start with the global level and the most important implication at the global level is the increase in Oil Exports Iran as a result of lifting sanctions. See, when sanctions were tightened, when the European Union tightened sanctions in 2012, there was a precipitous trop in iran positive will exports by roughly a Million Barrels a day. For laterso notice that the opposition of trading partners also shifted. In the tradewas with western europe, whereas trade with partners, the oil exports to eastern partners increased in some cases in proportion was much larger. We set as a first approximation t irans oil experts exports were going to grow by about a Million Barrels a day in thet six to 12 months after accord is ratified. Expect isat people the time needed to bring production backup to this level. We took that assumption of a Million Barrels a day and simulated it in a alltime country equilibrium model, multiple countries trading with each other, then we insert an additional Million Girls day. Simulated the effect of lifting some of the other restrictions sanctions had. Additional Million Barrels a day. The big effect is these additional Million Barrels a day have an effect on lowering World Oil Prices by 14 . Some people and i myself would have then surprised initially because a Million Barrels a day does not sound like a lot of oil , and additional Million Barrels. Get a drop of 14 . If you think about it, its the other side the fact that oil demand is quite elastic. We talk about in the elastic oil demand. Inelastic oil it only falls a little bit but the other side of that coin is if you have an increase of supply of a small amount, the price will fall by quite a large amount, as you can see from this graft. If you have a shift in the supply curve, given how steep the demand curve is, you get a pretty big drop in the price of oil. Keep in mind this is the pure effect of the additional Million Barrels a day. Its not a production about the way oil is going to be six months from now or a year from now because lots of other things determine the price of oil, including growth everywhere else. Simulation that assumes no strategic behavior by other Oil Exporters. Particular, we are following what seems to be the case with other Oil Producers, particularly the ones with swing capacity like saudi arabia, which when the price well in 2014, they did not adjust their production. They continued keeping production as it is. What is the effect of an additional Million Barrels a day and a drop in the price of oil on Different Countries . That is what we are trying to get at. We express this in terms of welfare, but you can think of it as a measure of income. This is the classic term trade shock weve experienced in different ways with the price of oil in different times in history. Lets turn to the second question we were asking which is what is the effect on trading partners . This is the global model but doesnt actually look closely at irans bilateral trading relationships. And for this, we use a different technique which was to try to simulate, or try to track irans bilateral trading relationships using what is called a gravity model. Its basically looking at the growth rate of the trading partners and irans own growth rate and seeing what that trade would of been in the absence of sanctions. We looked at what the effective 2012 and 2013 were, by how much that trajectory of trade changed as a result of the events of 2012 and 2013 when the eu sanctions became binding. And you can see that on this last column here there was a loss of exports over those two years of various trading partners, including some of the western european ones which you would predict. Totaling to Something Like 17 billion, or about 3. 5 of gdp over a twoyear period. And this could be thought of as the net effect of sanctions on exports, and conversely this is the amount by which we might expect exports to go back up once sanctions are lifted. The other thing to keep in mind here is that the composition of trading partners. Because what happened both before sections became tightened as well as during the sanction era, there was a shift towards eastern partners. Iran was irans president himself had been looking east for policy. They were trading more with russia, korea, china, india, and so on, and that process accelerated during the sections era. Now i think what we will see with the lifting of sanctions is just an increase in trade with the west, both simply because that was what was cut during the sections era, but also because the composition of goods they trade with the west are very different. Iran basically buys consumer goods from the eastern partners but it actually buys hightech machinery and equipment from the western partners. And it is in dire need of those, having neglected technology upgrading during the sanctions period. Now, let me then turn to the third part which is the effect on the iranian macroeconomy, or the iranian economy. And as i think that many of you know is that during the period of sanctions being tightened , during 2012 and 2013, iran went into a recession. Quite a deep recession in fact. Growth has now become positive just this last year to about 3 . Now we expect that to be somewhat higher with the stimulation stimulus offered by the increase in oil exports. It is pretty much the spending of Oil Export Revenues are going to revive the economy and we expect growth to be about 5 6 by 2017. Now that is one side. You can see fron the graph that the other big issue in iran is unemployment, particularly youth unemployment. Here there is an interesting twist to the usual story. If you look at Unemployment Rates and Labor Force Participation rates, particularly if you split it up between women and men, we found a very interesting pattern before during sanctions and that pattern was one where the Unemployment Rate for young women actually went up. And the Labor Force Participation rate went down. So women were dropping out of the labor force as well as where increasing employment. But the Unemployment Rate for young men actually went down. This is a bit of a surprise. If you think about it, it is one of those cases where economic actually is useful because what was going on there was during the sanctions period the 2012 2015, as many of you recall, the currency rapidly depreciated. It depreciated rapidly. When the currency depreciate second evaluation, the trade sector is relatively more profitable relative to the nontradable sector. Now women were mostly in the nontradable sector in services, whereas the men were in the tradable sector like manufacturing. You had the shift of the pattern of employment where the Services Sector was the one suffering from the depreciation. Women were having trouble finding jobs and many of them dropped out of the labor force at that time. If you buy the story, this whole pattern would reverse with the end of sanctions, with the lifting of sanctions. What do we get from an exchange coming into the country and the Services Sector would start growing and you would be able to absorb women back into the labor force and into employment. And the tradable sector, that is my last point, the tradable sector might suffer. This is the nonoil tradable sector might suffer. And this is important because this event, the lifting of sanctions, can be thought of as a windfall to iran. But it really matters how you manage this windfall if it is going to generate any kind of sustainable growth. And there, there is some concerns. Because in the report we track the experience of previous windfalls. Because iran has had windfalls before with the price of oil doubled and tripled. The windfall was not very impressive. In 1973 when the price of oil for shot up the shaw decided to sideline the National Planning office and decided by himself on the shah decided to sideline the National Planning office and decided by himself on a Public Investment projects to be spent on that and they were not very well designed or managed. It was really a wasted opportunity. More recently when Commodity Prices rose in the early 2000s, another windfall because iran was exporting oil there because the sections and not started becoming binding yet, there was a big windfall. When there was this windfall to get a Real Exchange rate appreciation. The price of nontradables are going up. Traditionally you expect the nonoil tradable sector to suffer. And it did during that period except for two sectors, pharmaceuticals and petrochemicals. Those continue to grow exports. It turns out those of the to that perception dies the most subsidized the most. Not only did they receive direct subsidies, but the president at the time went to promote these two sectors as exporting sectors, particularly to the eastern partners. Not only do they receive direct subsidies, but these are the sectors that received and benefited the most from the energy subsidies. The reason they kept the nonoil tradable sector going in these two areas with huge subsidies, which is a very inefficient way. So my final point is that at this time lets try to make good use of this windfall and ways to do that would be i dont think the Real Exchange and appreciation can be avoided. That is just a phenomenon of market forces. But we can do something in iran about lowering the cost of production of these nonoil tradable sectors. By removing some of the manmade constraints to doing business. There are lots of constraints that are really policy and bureaucratic constraints and the lack of competition in many of the sectors, that if we can intimate some of these policies and reforms you can bring down the costs even when the Real Exchange rate is appreciating. Secondly, infrastructure. In particular, iran has a good infrastructure in some ways. But the Telecommunications Infrastructure has been neglected. And this is critical for these nonoil exporter will sectors nonoil exporter sectors, because they need telecom. Particularly the hightech ones. This is what is going to be key for the postoil era. Iran actually has to start preparing for what its going to do in the oil runs out. There is tremendous potential in this country. It has a highly educated population and he want them to move to the nonoil era, you have got to the knowledge economy. Those of the things that require hightech communication equipment and good infrastructure excellency Company Policy for business environment. On wall street they say never confused genius with the bull market. That adage is never confuse wisdom of the high prices of oil. [laughter] let me handed over to you are not using slides, are you . No, im just point to speak. Lowtech. I would like to congratulate my friend chanta and his team for their timely and comprehensive analysis of the lifting of irans sanctions. Let me say a bit on the study and a bit on policy applications. The study brings home a couple of things. First, how devastating the intensification of sanctions since 2012 has been on the iranian economy and how important the boost of lifting them will be. It makes you understand better why iranians came to the table, and also why the negotiators are confident that they are unlikely, the western negotiators so to speak, they are likely to likely flout the agreement in the future. Second, the report shows the lifting of sanctions will be beneficial for the World Economy overall, even though Oil Producers will lose. It is a striking fact that the economies of developing countries on average are about 25 30 bigger than they were prefinancial crisis. But the iranian economy is not much different than it was then. That to me highlights in a simple way, were talking real money in these numbers. The report discusses the lifting of sanctions as a windfall which suggests a onetime big game gain. The lifting of sanctions should not be called a windfall in my view. It is much more of a fundamental shift in the iranian economy. An economic regime change, not a political regime change. But an economic regime change. And so it should be looked at as the potential for a new start, a start where iran integrates into the world market and an integral way. We are confident with the lifting of sections. If you look at it this way, then the welfare gains could run up significant larger than the 2 a year or so estimated in the report. Because in addition to the onetime boost to all exports, and the efficiency effects of trade opening, you have to factor in a sustained increase in total productivity growth and in private investment. Not only Foreign Investment, but also domestic private investment. Chanta is absolutely right to stress that these beneficial effects will depend predominantly on how iran deals with the new economic regime. As an opportunity to enact Structural Reforms and clean up its governance or alternatively as an opportunity to capture by the state and its associated special interests. And possibly get up to no good abroad. Iran is a large and sophisticated economy. About the same size in terms of population and income as turkey. An economy about 40 larger and 40 richer perperson roughly than egypt. It is much more than an oil economy or an oil state. Before sanctions, it introduced 1. 6 million cars. That is almost three times as many as italy produces today. Admittedly, italy is not a good example of efficiency. [laughter] i was working in italy when they were producing 2 million cars in 1975. Opening up iran has an effect on world trade and investment oneworld treatise stuttering. The report says iran could attract the number could be much higher than that. Turkey attracted 13 billion in 2013 and turkey does not have huge oil reserves in need of technology and money to restart and expand. As for the effect on oil markets, which the report stresses the biggest gain for the World Economy, i have to say i have my doubts as to whether this is good for the world today. I understand the point that it improves the incomes of oil importers, including the United States. It reduces the incomes of Oil Exporters. But the point is we live now in a lowinflation, low price world. We live now in a lowprice world. Low oil price world. I believe you can have too much of a good thing. The oil prices already fallen so fast and so low that the wellknown destabilizing effects on the budgets of Oil Exporters and on the income statements and Balance Sheets of companies and the oil sectors are already very significant. They could outweigh the positive effects of consumer demand. Looked at another way, oil is today a much more a part of the Family Budget but it is absolutely critical at the margin for Oil Producers. I am also concerned this is slightly below the belt, chanta, i am also concerned about the effective even though oil prices from Carbon Emissions and the increased Oil Consumption that it implies. As i mentioned in a report last month in this room, it is amazing to me how the ifi, International Financial institutions, can submit an analysis to put climate on the top of the list and then to ignore it the next. Finally, a word about business and about economic policies. Businesses have already assumed that the deal is going to go ahead and have been flocking there for months. The opportunities lie in investments in the Energy Sector and in providing all manner of goods and especially services. How big the opportunities turn out to be depends on the Energy Investment regime iran put in puts in place on the evolution of the Real Exchange rate on the International Investment regime and on the growth of the iranian economy. Obviously the numbers on these policies are in the hands of iranian politicians. But the International Community is not without tools to help influence this process. Iran throughout this period has continued to receive assistance from the imf and cooperate with them. And apparently to listen to them. The message we have is that in all respects they are moving in the right direction on Macro Economic policies. Businesses will be looking for sound fiscal monetary policy. A sense that inflation under control. That the Exchange Rate is simple. That the Exchange Rate regime is simple and nondiscriminatory. The Exchange Rate must be realistic. Imf can help on all of these. As important is the effect is that iran has renewed its did renewed its agreement several times to join the world trade organization. Its a multiyear process. Its a very frustrating process. But it is also one that provides a unique opportunity to reshape irans economy for modern times. A tough wto negotiation will result in an iranian economy with more uniform tariffs, more liberal investment regime, affecting particularly trade service, a reduction in the role of state run enterprises, respect for International Standards and norms, including intellectual property. Crucially, if it is done well, the wto negotiation will greatly strengthen the hands of reformers in iran. For the World Bank Iran would represent the single most important active program in the middle east region. There will be large lending there will be large lending opportunities, i suspect, and these are obviously important for the banks efforts. But in the end the money will be secondary in iran. The bank will bring enormous extremes and analytical resources on irans most pressing challenges. Reforming the trade regime, improving competitiveness, upgrading infrastructure, modernizing the education system, established a more transparent governance mechanism, reforming the labor market and the list goes on. Finally, i want to say the developing economies learned the hard way that the Economic Analysis is not the most important, but it is the politics, stupid. I may be naive but i like to believe that if iran can make substantial progress in terms of growth and economic integration and that the benefits are felt by families and the young, that the politics will gradually change. Chantas report helps clarify everyones thinking. Thank you so much, and chandra, let me start with a simple question which probably doesnt have a simple answer. If irans Oil Production and exports are projected to double at a time when the price of oil has recovered more than half, could we look back a few years from now and see this opening up with a negative. That the gdp was higher when they were sections . Sanctioned . Not in the case of iran. If you think about it, iran is still currently in oildependent an oildependent economy. Their comparative advantage was oil in a was the one thing they cannot produce, or they were not able to export much. Even if the price of oil falls, it will not fall so far that iran will suddenly discover its comparative advantage with something else. There will be a gain the magnitude of the benefits will be lower. There is no question about that. I think there is still a net gain. Those figures are debated about the price of oil for the iranians to be able to balance its budget. Do you have an assessment of that at the bank . Let me ask my colleague. I colleague. I dont think we have one for iran. 100 . Do you have an assessment let me move the subject slightly. Both of you have been working in the field of developing economics for a very long time. There was an interesting piece about myanmar, burma in the wall street journal about how the countrys economic opening has enriched government cronies and military cronies and it has not trickle down to the hasnt really trickled down to the population of myanmar. If you can kind of project it two or three years forward based on a comparative perspective that you have, how do you see this potential removal of economic sanctions playing out within iran . What other kind of countries which often times people who do Political Science like to invoke in 1970s china or the soviet union, is there another country or region in which you find most applicable to irans potential . Chandra i think i can answer a little bit on the first part of the question which is we have done some analysis on several other countries in the region, particularly tunisia and europe egypt. We find the unappointed problem is directly related to crony capitalism. We find that if the ben ali regime in tunisia before the revolution had control family connections on the banking sector, the telecom sector, and the transport sector. As a result those sectors stood in the way of export. There is some work by kevin harris at princeton that is trying to do a similar kind of analysis of iran. So it is preliminary work. But he is finding various connections in the private sector with the regime. That could lead to similar consequences. So i think there is a concern and it is really transferable and it really is trying to promote competition so that the elite do not get in the way of promoting. I agree completely with what he said. What i would add is that on principles, not having means to iran now or ever, im just looking at the data. And comparing it with other countries. You have a country that that has been closed for a while there has been a big shift in resources. You cannot import. This is somewhat artificial. Im sure that a lot of positions have been developed and is highly distorted and relatively isolated economy. In the course of the last three or four years. In this sense this is why i have put so much stress on the wto negotiations. Which the iranians are really very keen on and they keep coming back to it. Because that is precisely what the deputy of negotiations can help offset to a degree. By putting forward the interest of exporters and creating a Binding Mechanism for the reformers in the country to change things. And that is what is happened in china, thats what happened in vietnam, thats what happened in a number of other countries. They underwent serious wto negotiations. The other point i would make is that this is drawing a little bit from the recent experience in egypt, if the regime is confident and well entrenched, a entrenched, it can take on its special interests more easily. If the regime is feeling threatened, and secure, and youre the best judge of that, not me, then its capacity to confront cronies and special interests is more compensated. I sense there is been an evolution in the thinking in washington about the wisdom of irans acceptance of the wto. Acceptance to the world trade organization. Because in the past, during the bush administration, that was received as a carrot and we should not offer that to them. Now there is a sense there is an economic mafia joining and it is necessarily in your interest. A couple more questions were handed over to all of you simply set your questions ready. We talk a little bit there were the potential winners and losers as a result of the removal of sanctions. The winners are major oil importers, china, europe. Additional users are the major the potential losers are the Oil Producers. Maybe other countries that are not necessarily in the obvious categories that this economic category might have. Devarajan just to be clear, we were talking about winners and losers as a result of the effect of increasing oil exports on the world oil price. That was simply that one particular thread that we were tracing through. There are lots of other implications as a result of the nuclear deal, including the lifting of sanctions that will change the pattern of winners and losers. There are people who are saying that this could actually lead to Greater Peace in the middle east region. There are some huge winners there like all of us. We dont analyze but could definitely be part of the story. Dudash i want to stress what i said at the beginning. We have already had this big boon from oil prices. Actually the result of been quite disappointing in terms of economic growth. In part because, im talking about the decline in oil prices that is already occurred, in part because the effects on investment and many Oil Exporters has been more important than many had anticipated. They cut back quite a bit in part because in many instances the benefits of Lower Oil Prices had not filtered down to consumers. Sometimes for good reason because they would use subsidies. In the case of iran as well they have a very Serious Energy subsidy reform program. In part because some governments just needed more taxes. They have increased taxes. The effects of been quite disappointing. What worries me most now is that there are a lot of precarious situations among the Oil Producers. So i dont assume i understand the logic of the transfer of resources being from low spenders to high spenders. Being positive for world demand in the short term. I just question that that is the case now. I am concerned that further Oil Price Declines will mean no effect on the world aggregate demand and perhaps a decline in world aggregate demand because of the effect it has on all producers at this low level of oil prices. Shantayanan i meant to respond to one of your comments earlier. I think it is important to one of your comments earlier. I think it is important to separate two things which is the effect of an increase in oil supply in the market and its effect on oil prices. From the secular decline in those prices we saw towards the end of 2014 and we are seeing again now, which is more on the demand side. One of the reasons we are not seeing this growth has a result of the Lower Oil Prices is because its a lack of growth that is putting oil prices down. We have to separate those two. They are two different phenomena. Inflation is also as a result of the lack of growth. We are seeing a slowdown in china, lower growth in china, lower growth in europe. And they sent recovery in the United States. Host i remember when the major financial crisis happened, the Global Crisis happened in 2008. It did not really affect the Economic Situation in tehran. Iran bragged about having was basically immune to Global Economic trends. Putting aside the price of oil, some of these major collapses were happening in emerging markets. How do you see that impacting the Economic Situation in iran moving forward . Shantayanan it is still the case that iran is not all the integrated into the Global Financial system. I think the effect of the current turmoil, iran in the near future will be through the oil prices. That is the main channel were going to see until iran becomes more integrated in the Global Financial system. Host very good, ok, i am going to hand it over to all of you. If you just introduce yourself and be as brief as possible. Michael michael gordon. Under this following up on the notion of winners and losers, under the jcpla, this iran agreement, which is a rather complicated document, there is a long list of banks, companies, individuals, enterprises of various sorts on whom sanctions are removed. And it is a phased process. Some are removed right away on implementation day when the nuclear conditions are met. Some are removed on transition day eight years down the line. And in some cases they are to be removed by the European Union but not necessarily by the United States, depending on the entity involved. Many, if not most of these enterprises are linked to the irt and thec people that event involved in nuclear program. The question i have is did you examined within the framework of the iranian economy what the effect is on removing these sanctions in terms of strengthening or weakening areas players . Does the agreement strengthen the irtclinked companies and if and do you think this link encourages economic reform in iraq . Discourages it, or has no effect . Shantayanan it is a big question and a very important one. We did not look at that. Mainly for the reasons that you alluded to. It is very complicated and there is a lot of uncertainty even over how much money there is that is being blocked. I read an article in the New York Times about the range of estimates. We really did not we ducked that issue. Its potentially very important. But i think we also dont want to mix of stocks. We are talking about the effect of the lifting of sanctions on the productive capacity of the economy. These are assets that are sitting there, the money is sitting there in the question is will they be able to use it rather than have it frozen . Its a question of how much money there is and also its a political judgment for how they will use it. We dont have any prior independent assessment of how those resources will be used. Host because of the fact that they had benefited from economic isolation, they fell behind by the International Oil companies. Somehow this economic opening will be integral to the juice of the revolutionary guard. And a rising tide all boats rise, and the guard will stand to benefit from this as well. The question is if they stand to benefit from opening up more than the population. That remains to be seen. Thats why i asked about burma. These things happen and often times we look back if it is russia or burma in retrospect and we say to cronies got very wealthy but it did not necessarily trickle down to the people the way they anticipated. I will come back to the back. My question is a bit more with regards to domestic politics and its effect with regards to Economic Reforms. Iran has talked about Economic Reforms for years. Part of what there is not been a lot of success has been there is not been this sort of consensus is among the different political actors in iran and basically the lack of political will. Rouhani has quite an extensive economic reform plan in my question is what are some areas where iran will have an easier time politically instigating some of these reforms, basically developing the productive factor as well . What are some areas where they might have to wait a bit longer to do later on . Host great question. Hello, i am a visiting fellow at georgetown and you mentioned the economic regime change. You honestly it knowledge that relies on choices. I want to take it one set step backwards. How can we say that the postdeal economic environment constitutes economic regime change when a run will be facing stronger sanctions in place for the next several years than it did before 2010 with the two sanction regime was put in power . Even if they managed to insert a clause in case of sanctions. And when the u. S. Implementation sanctions on other issues have become much stronger and much more effective over the years . Is it economic regime change or other going back to something similar to what it was before 2010 was there were still a lot of restrictions in place . Host lets take one more. We did a study on iran and i think one of the implications of lifting the sanctions, it respected the position of the rouhani government. That brings me to the issue raised that lifting the sanctions is good for the moderate government. They will proceed further with reform. With the sanctions, the hardliners benefit more. That speaks to the issue of Exchange Rate. Shanta mentioned the windfall. I think it will not allow significant depreciation of the official rate. What happened is that the black market rate will appreciate and you will eliminate the spread between the two rates. Any appreciation of the Exchange Rate which we very small, only 10 , the black market could be offset with further structural reform. The rouhani government will go ahead with the reforms in an environment where the sections are lifted. Sanctions are lifted. Host thank you. Those are some good questions. What are the sectors that are less sensitive than to try to reform economically . Shantayanan i was hoping you would answer. [laughter] shantayanan it is really a combination of which sectors are where there is a economically compelling case for reform. And there is a political window. I dont know about sectors but certainly the whole area of subsidies seems to be a high priority on both sides. There was a political imperative to do something about subsidies because it is draining the fiscal balance in honestly. And obviously there is an economic benefit. The other thing to keep in mind is that iran, maybe more so than others, did an amazing reform of subsidies seven years ago. This is one of a replaced fuel subsidies with cash transfers, with a particular twist which was keeping in mind. I keep telling other countries to do it. They provided the cash transfers ahead of the reform and a waiver in a way where people could see the money in their bank accounts, but they could not spend it until the reform was done. This shifted the political balance because all of a sudden people are sweet said they were supporting the subsidy reform because now they could use the cash transfers with incredible opportunity. For various other reasons it did not work out so well now the subsidies are back. I think having done it once there is a chance they might able to do it again. Uri on the point of if it will be politically easier, it will be politically easier where the economic case is compelling. The compelling case in my view is especially compelling. It can be in subsidies, but it is especially compelling and the compelling in the whole Energy Sector where they will be desperate to attract Foreign Investment. The kind of oil regime that they have and they are moving in the direction desired by International Oil companies. In general they will be looking for Foreign Investment because there are many good reasons to get Foreign Investment. Particularly Foreign Investment which is a generation of employment and a transfer of technology and funding, access to funds. This should be a relatively easy play in many sectors except in those where the cronies are most prominent and most sensitive. I would expect trade liberalization by definition in the manufacturing and trade will trade sectors to be a particularly tough nut to crack, because you have an industry that protects staterun enterprises and that plays a big role, and that is very tough to open up quickly. I will go back to the wto into the negotiations. Im not sure fully i know enough to answer your question. I started from the assumption that sections are lifted. I am sure im not even familiar with all the details but im sure this will take time. There are a number of hoops to go through including in the next month. Once the sanctions are lifted, which is the intention of the deal, and this may take a year or two or three for it come to completion, then i would argue that you are dealing with a different iranian economy. An iranian economy that can be part of the world system. The sanctions, honestly, i was surprised when look at the numbers. When i looked at the numbers. How devastating the effect of sanctions has been. It is really enormous. I stress that i remained of the opinion that this is an economic regime change potentially for iran. Host one point which is the Ayatollah Khamenei says economics is for donkeys. His successor has not said that but he has never but the countrys economic interests as a first or second tier priority. Some of the things that economists talk about witches talk about from a no brainer pers nobrainer perspective is it is not obvious from the perspective of an authoritarian ideological regime. You mentioned telecom. If youre an authoritarian ideological regime, you do know what to cede control of the Telecom Industry to an outside company. Likewise, the difference between iran and some of the other countries in the region is that i would argue this regime has actually fear the growth of the private sector in the country. They will not cede political control to their adversaries. That is why trying to open iran up economically is helpful to those forces that would to see changed. But i think we are naive if it think the hardliners will of was if we open up the doors and there was a woman in the front. Shanta, on the gravity model results china was not in their. There. [indiscernible] there will be a f trade that will go on with American Companies with iran. How do you see the agreement affecting u. S. Companies overall . I know it is a pretty big question but if you could just give us some perspective on that. Host two you want to start . Uri this is one of my worries, by the way, not just because of a mechanics of the deal, but because of the animosity, sadly, because of the animosity particularly towards the United States. On the other hand, the United States has a lot of [indiscernible] in its sector and it is the richest in the world. It has a lot of technology that iran needs. It also has companies with enormous financial clout in the oil sector and a number of other sectors. So i think the United States is at a disadvantage. It has been at a disadvantage and it is at a disadvantage right now. A lot of other countries are ahead, what again, if but ag ain, if we can move forward on normalization, then over time, United States can be a trade partner. Host as long as the United States remains the same on hezbollah, and other organizations, it will remain the same overall with the relationship. Everyone was doing business with iran but the United States was not and it was largely shut up. There. Largely shut out. The u. S. Has some niches that it can exploit and that is needed in iran. So it may not be the big royal companies. As far as i know, the french big oil companies. As far as i know, the french and the germans are already in iran and the u. S. Is already too late to the party on that one. At this very hightech level, they are still needed in iran, so there can be some potential there. But i like this question, and i agree. My chief economist my chief donkey whatever you call it said the same thing, you can make the real appreciation towards this and make it work for you with Structural Reforms. That is how Successful Companies have done it. What i was thinking about is that other countries will use of the windfall so that the nonoil tradable sector can move forward and we can fully agree. Host thank you all, and i hope to have both of you back sometime. Thank you very much. [applause] short and sweet. Oh, let me take this off. [captions Copyright National cable satellite corp. 2015] [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. Visit ncicap. Org] announcer oregon senator jeff merkley today became the 31st senator to announce that he will support the Nuclear Agreement with iran. Congress is expected to vote on the agreement disapproving it, but it will need 67 votes to override a veto from president obama. So with senator Jeff Merkleys announcement, only three more votes are needed for it to survive. This morning jeff merkley wrote on the website medium that this was the best strategy to block iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. Announcer coming up at 6 00 p. M. Eastern here on cspan, Stephanie Shri are schriock of emilys list. This is a group that supports women running for Political Parties who want to defund planned parenthood. Announcer tonight on q a, a discussion on the u. S. s counterinsurgency and safeguarding efforts in afghanistan. Guest the ending of the war depends on how it begins. There is more reliance on interrogating myself and questioning myself to see how it will end. This is also possible in three years or five years down the road that we will be back in a civil war in afghanistan. I see it slowly emerging in this country and the taliban and is deeply entrenched and so if we end up five years down the road in a new civil war in afghanistan and you have a safe haven for the taliban and isis there, then i would say i would not be surprised. Announcer Vanda Felbabbrown tonight at 8 00 p. M. Eastern on q a. Announcer the Hudson Institute discussed lifting sanctions on iran to many suggested that lifting sanctions would embolden irans leaders. Host good afternoon, thank you very much for coming to Hudson Institute for what i know is going to be a very interesting panel and a very Important Panel. This panel, i have now been here at hudson for several years now, and i think this is probably the most Important Panel that we have been doing. We have had terrific people in the past and this is a special panel, but i think one of the things that this will do especially is that it will focus on a joint and comprehensive plan of action. I think one of the things that this panel does in this discussion and that these gentlemen will be able to do is to fill in a very clear picture of what the Islamic Republic of iran has done and has done throughout the middle east, especially to american servicemen and women, as well as american citizens, over the last 36 years. So i think it is very important to have a clear understanding exactly what this regimes past relationship with the United States has been like and what we should probably look for and expect in the immediate future. So without further ado, i am going to address the panelists. It is a very special panel. We have general jack keane, he spent 37 years in the army. His last post was as chief of staff of the armys now and now he is part of the institutes of the study of war. We also a commentator from fox news. I know whenever i have had to do an article, he has been available and helpful and a very interesting source. To my immediate left is mr. Derek harvey read mr. Harvey is now at the university of south florida and he is now a military intelligence Senior Executive with the dia . Is that correct . And then all the way to the left is mike, and mike has been here at hudson before on a panel, so mike is coming back and mike among other things was a military Intelligence Panel and army officer