On September 19, Australia s Bureau of Meteorology confirmed the onset of an El Nino weather pattern, raising the chances of a blistering hot and dry summer.
Scientists agree that the El Nino weather cycle is imminent later this year – what they aren't sure about is whether the heat and drought effects it brings will be worsened by climate change.
Southwest monsoon will progress battling diverse conditions of the Pacific and Indian Ocean. While La Nina will push good monsoon activity, -ve IOD tend to retard the monsoon bursts. MJO may not influence much the monsoon dynamics for the next 2 weeks. Monsoon will have to drive, relying more on its internal energy.