Recent improvements in artificial intelligence have generated speculation about whether, someday soon, the way that new technologies are developed may be fundamentally altered. Contemplating the possibilities of such a novel paradigm shift in one of the key drivers of longrun prosperity is challenging but also extremely important. Examining historical experience can provide one tool, albeit limited, through which we can approach difficult questions about the future. As we consider the potential consequences of future changes in the process of technology development, it can be useful to search for similar changes in the past. Of course, history does not repeat itself. Historical experience can, however, provide perspective, a fixed point of reference that can be useful as we navigate into an uncertain future.
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