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“And therefore the possibility of an earnings downgrade as we move forward is quite high. Some of the banks like HDFC Bank and ICICI have already made some provisions for the second Covid wave and we expect more will downgrade their earnings if we fail to contain the pandemic quickly,” he said. Cuts in earnings expectations make the markets look expensively valued. Analysts had justified steep valuations of shares of several companies on the back of cheerful earnings estimates. If expectations are lowered, valuations will become even richer, making stocks vulnerable to sharp corrections. The estimated price to earnings (PE) ratio, a popular valuation measure, stood at 19.95 times against the 10-year average of 17.66. MSCI Emerging Markets’ estimated PE is 15.20 times compared with its 10-year average of 12.38.

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