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India, once touting its exceptionalism, is facing economic challenges resembling China s model. With private consumption crawling at 4.4%, sluggishness is evident, and unsecured personal loans surge. Prime Minister Modi s focus on capital stock is reminiscent of China s investment-heavy approach. However, doubts persist about trickle-down effects benefiting the surplus labor. As India s GDP lags pre-pandemic levels, the job market narrows, impacting incomes for a significant portion of the population. The top 20% may thrive, but broad-based consumption growth is essential for sustained economic success.
India’s resilience will come from broad-basing domestic spending with better-quality jobs and higher purchasing power. For a country of 1.4 billion people to be driven by just 100 million consumers will store up trouble