“From the record of past earthquakes, we can determine that the probability of a magnitude-7 or higher event is about 75 per cent in the next 50 years. So we now know the chances of seeing a large Alpine Fault earthquake in our lifetime are better than a coin toss. That is a really significant result, but we can’t forecast the magnitude of the next event from these data alone,’ Howarth said. One of the researchers’ findings is that a curious “earthquake gate” on the fault south of Jackson Bay, near Martyr River, appears to determine how large an Alpine Fault earthquake gets.