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“From the record of past earthquakes, we can determine that the probability of a magnitude-7 or higher event is about 75 per cent in the next 50 years. So we now know the chances of seeing a large Alpine Fault earthquake in our lifetime are better than a coin toss. That is a really significant result, but we can’t forecast the magnitude of the next event from these data alone,’ Howarth said. One of the researchers’ findings is that a curious “earthquake gate” on the fault south of Jackson Bay, near Martyr River, appears to determine how large an Alpine Fault earthquake gets.

New zealand generalNew zealandUnited statesMilford soundJackson bayMartyr riverSouth islandSouthern alpsCloudy bayJamie howarthCook straitHerenga wakaUniversity of californiaVictoria universityEarth sciencesVictoria university school of geography