Did you know that wheat futures prices are at a 2-year low? And lumber prices continue to drop? Those numbers should help reduce inflation. During the conference in NY there was plenty of talk about external influences such as price increases on residential lending. But there are also plenty of issues within our biz that face lenders daily. For example, signing bonuses continue, albeit at a slower rate. Perhaps some of the economic bloom is off the bonus rose? Big signing bonuses come with big handcuffs. It stinks when a competitor takes your production but not your overhead, right? With the help of technology and tracking, a lender’s management can, more than ever, determine whether a given branch or LO is making money for the company, or is merely a source of concessions and extensions. Recruiters sometimes talk of the “greater fool” theory when bad LOs or branches move on to another lender. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is spon
Born in Ukraine, Golda Meir said, “Old age is like a plane flying through a storm. Once you are aboard there is nothing you can do about it." (Doubtful anyone called her Goldy.) Her time as the Prime Minister of Israel ended in 1974, and since that time oldsters in our biz have seen the yield curve invert ten times, give or take. Bond traders are no longer fully convinced that the Federal Reserve will do one more quarter-point interest-rate hike, given the nervousness about First Republic and fear of an economic downturn; recessions have tended to lag yield curve inversions by 6 to 18 months. (STRATMOR’s current blog is “The Yield Curve Is Inverted: Should Lenders Care?”) Politics are also on trader’s radar screens: A failure by Congress to raise the debt ceiling and prevent a default on US government debt would result in an "economic catastrophe" that will push interest rates higher for even longer, per Treasury Secretary J
Pi Day has come around once again, which is also, coincidentally, Albert Einstein’s birthday. As I head to Lexington for the MBA Kentucky Education Conference, led by Alan Thorup, Matt O. sent, “I have an idea: We organize a 10k race in San Jose and call it ‘The Bank Run.’” (While we’re on sports, a moment of silence for Dick Fosbury who revolutionized the high jump in the mid-1960’s). High jumpers have a soft pad to land on, not so with some bank stocks Monday. Western Alliance Bancorp, supplier of warehouse lines to many an independent mortgage banker and parent of AmeriHome, First Republic Bank, Metropolitan Bank, PacWest Bancorp, and First Horizon. Fortunately, many have “bounced” but these are all non-money-center banks seemingly causing risk to the U.S. financial system. In Banking 101 one learns that borrowing short (by holding customer deposits) to lend long (by purchasing long bonds and MBS) to improve returns is b
Hey, why wouldn’t you want to join the Mortgage Action Alliance? It doesn’t cost you a penny, and there’s strength in numbers. Signing up takes about 90 seconds. And the information you receive is much more reliable than mine! The U.S. Census Bureau produces some reliable information, unless you’re some conspiracy theory nut, and they have information that loan officers love: where most owners are free and clear of any home loan. And 30-year rates, which probably won’t be down to 2.75 percent again in our lifetimes, are less expensive than credit card debt, so there is business to be had. California has 2.4 million households free-and-clear of mortgage debt, the third-highest count among the states. There’s Texas at 2.9 million, and Florida at 2.5 million. After California comes New York at 1.7 million and Pennsylvania at 1.5 million. West Virginia has the largest share of free-and-clear owners at 53%, followed by Mississippi at 51%, North Dako
Why does opening every ironing board sound like you’re dipping a witch in scalding oil? Cutting costs can sound like that as well, and while we await the 2023 conforming loan limits tomorrow, and the industry grapples with massive credit reporting cost hikes, lenders are not the only ones taking a close look at expenses these days. Owners of vendors and third-party providers are also looking at middle layers of management, cutting back, certainly cutting salaries, or ridding themselves of unproductive salespeople. (Yes, sales staff can report to senior management or owners!) Meanwhile, our industry continues to pay for the sins of previous days. “Santos orchestrated the scheme to recruit fake, or ‘straw’ buyers to purchase 12 properties in Newark. Using the identity and credit of these straw buyers allowed Santos, Simoes, and their conspirators to conceal their identities from the lender as the actual purchasers of the properties.” (Today’s pod