Born in Ukraine, Golda Meir said, “Old age is like a plane flying through a storm. Once you are aboard there is nothing you can do about it." (Doubtful anyone called her Goldy.) Her time as the Prime Minister of Israel ended in 1974, and since that time oldsters in our biz have seen the yield curve invert ten times, give or take. Bond traders are no longer fully convinced that the Federal Reserve will do one more quarter-point interest-rate hike, given the nervousness about First Republic and fear of an economic downturn; recessions have tended to lag yield curve inversions by 6 to 18 months. (STRATMOR’s current blog is “The Yield Curve Is Inverted: Should Lenders Care?”) Politics are also on trader’s radar screens: A failure by Congress to raise the debt ceiling and prevent a default on US government debt would result in an "economic catastrophe" that will push interest rates higher for even longer, per Treasury Secretary J
Having lived through past downturns allows experienced leaders to keep employee engagement high as the mortgage business faces its first rough cycle in over a decade.
Let me save you a web search tomorrow: 1-800-butterball. A web search turned up a misconception: It appears that robber Willie Horton, when he was asked why he robbed banks, never said, "That's where the money is." But banks are where the money is, and it is certainly catchy. You don’t think someone is making money off your money sitting in that bank? Another web search shows that the 1-year CD national average is 0.43 percent. The current 1-year risk-free Treasury bill is yielding 4.75 percent. How can you get around that spread where the bank earns 4.75 percent for a year but pays you less than .5 percent? Tip of the day: Go to https://www.treasurydirect.gov/ and see the yields of what you can buy directly from the government and the minimums required. I don’t recall anyone predicting 1-year rates would be near or at 5 percent by year end (or per loan costs would be over $11,000 per loan). Still, there’s a lot of planning going on for 20
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