speaker. at home we re watching a major test of former president trump s influence over the republican party. in the five states where voters are headed to the polls today to vote in primary elections, all eyes will be on the slate of candidates who the former president endorsed and have embraced the big lie that the 2020 election was stolen. will that message resonate with republican primary voters? today will also be a big test for these three house republicans who were among the ten who voted to impeach the former president. will they survive after taking a critical stand? one of today s biggest tests will happen in kansas where abortion rights are on the ballot for the first time since the supreme court overturned roe v. wade. we ll have the latest into the massive implications of that vote. let s get right into it with nbc s steve kornacki at the big board. steve, what are you looking for this morning? a couple things, jose, you touched on. i think this referendum in
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on the ballot motivate more democratic voters to get out to the polls. also, you ve got the independent voters in kansas who can t vote in either party s primary, but they could go to the polls today and vote in this referendum. how many of them who would have had no interest in voting in one of the party s primaries, how many will show up to vote on this referendum. there are x factors, variables in terms of who is going to make up the electorate in kansas tonight. we could get a little test here of what side debate gets more motivated by this, if one side gets more motivated. we could see that in some of the turnout patterns. this will be an interesting one to follow. it s a little tricky because it s unusual to have a referendum being voted on in a primary and not a general election. steve kornacki, thank you very much for that explanation. so the big question tonight, will former president trump s endorsement matter, and will it matter in a big way?
there, trump 33%, recall a fraction of a point lower. recall probably needs to be in high 40s in santa barbara to be succeeding. monterey, what happened? donald trump had 28%, recall is running exactly where trump ran with 2/3 of the vote in. monterey last november. same group was counted last november, donald trump running at 25%, then counted more republican friendly same day votes, late mail, and it went up to 28.2%. increased three points. if current yes 28% goes up to 31%, where does it need to be? 16 plus 28, about 44%. it s on course right now based on the history and what we know about the turnout patterns, to