resistance in a scorched earth. and i don t think that ultimately people get excited to get up and say hey, yeah, that s what i believe in too. i don t think m middle america s buying it. i think they re som solidly with donald trump. if your base is invested in resist and impeach the president, that could be a motivator. the question is where the independents come down and that s probably what you re speaking to as well. who motivated to who gets motivated to show up cast a ballot. these are low turnout elections. it s the middle of the summer, it s hot, there s lots of excuses not to go. the president is putting a lot of emphasis here. it s a very important seat that republicans have held for a long time. i ve got to get your comment on jim jordan. last night he was at the rally. the president pulled him up on stage and he spoke, they embraced. jim jordan announced he wants to be the next speaker of the
i don t know about nationally but all politics is local. she put the focus on local issues. her opponent had been in congress for 20 years. he wasn t even really living in the district anymore. she really played on madison did a very good job. these are very low turnout elections, and there have never been a june primary in that district. she got her people out, and by the time crowley noticed she was nipping at his heels, beating him, it was way too late. he spent a lot of money but he never have a grassroots which you need in these june primaries which are new to new york. laura: i will get to how she dealt with the nancy pelosi leadership question in a second. but dan bongino, this was a wild few days for the democrats because you have maxine waters going totally off the rails over the weekend, basically coming close to inciting violence
she put the focus on local issues. her opponent had been in congress for 20 years. he wasn t even really living in the district anymore. she really played on that and did a very good job. these are very low turnout elections, and there had never been a june primary in that district. she got her people out, and by the time crowley noticed she was nipping at his heels, beating him, it was way too late. he spent a lot of money but he never have a grassroots which you need in these june primaries which are new to new york. laura: i will get to how she dealt with the nancy pelosi leadership question in a second. but dan bongino, this was a wild few days for the democrats, because you have maxine waters going totally off the rails over the weekend, basically coming close to inciting violence against public officials in public places.
it tends to get whiter and whiter and older and older which means as a general principle, low turnout elections and special elections tend to be good for republican and conservative because of the small electret. the same general principles make it hard to model what turnout might be on a night like this with candidates like this. we don t know who will turnout. we don t know who turnedout and made it to the polls and made it and has made it hard to get good polling for an election like this. if you cannot model turnout, you can t model what the election result is going to be based on a statistical sample of voters. that s why the polling is all over the map for this race. it s really because nobody knows who is going to turn out so nobody knows how to wait samples. that uncertainty about turnout, the fact that there is no good basis which to predict turnout that not just doesn t just make polling difficult, it makes it hard for the campaigns on both sides to figure out their
more supportive of donald trump than mo brooks or roy moore. roy moore could lose in a general election and he could win. and away we shouldn t be too surprised this is happening. there is some precedent in past election cycles on the republican side. very passionate, out there kind of very conservative primary candidates capturing the imagination of their local electorate. christine o donnell in delaware. and it drives the establishment crazy. what he demonstrates is in politics, and low turnout elections, off years, a guy who has the excitement in the movement behind him, and roy moore does. roy moore has his people.