models all along, also, still very much in alinement, here, around new york city. shepard: that is an improvement in science. that was saturday while irene was moving past north carolina and the storm landed early sunday, right over coney island in brooklyn, new york. they talked, fema director was, how very accurate the models seemed to be but the science of how strong the winds will be is less certain. we getting better at forecaster but when we take all ofñi the computer models, some e good at forecast the tracks and the others at tracking atmospheric conditionsçó and others at predicting how strong or how intense the storm will be. for instance, the model was predicted a landfall across long island five days out. so i want to show you that area of uncertainty. this is tropical depression 12, to be the next named storm in the next day or so and this will become a hurricane five days