which there s a literal comparison state-wide between two candidates, one who is a dewine type and one who is a jd vance. the dewine type of republican is going to outperform the jd vance style republican. and in that race specifically, tim ryan is running his campaign to get mike dewine voters to vote for him. he s running specifically for ticket splitters, to the point where the thing that might jeopardize his campaign, which people have been praising as one of the better run campaigns is he s so determined to get republicans to vote for him that he ran two ads after he got nominated at the democratic nominee. one of them said, i voted against obama, dot dot dot, on this trade thing. but for black voters in hamilton county and cuyahoga county, all they heard was i voted against obomb. he ran a second ad that said, trump was right, dot dot dot, on chiba. black voters just heard trump was right and a lot of voters who were more moderate heard
walker appearing in front of their supporters last night but governor kemp was there in a festive mood celebrating that reelection victory over stacey abrams whereas walker had to vow to keep fighting because indeed looks like he s heading to that runoff. as you look at those numbers and compare them in both races i want to go back for a moment to a voter i alluded to when i was on with you guys in the last hour. this was a voter who told us he had just moments before speaking to us voted for governor kemp but did not vote at all in the senate race. take a listen. i kind of abstained from votes in the senate race. i don t really dig most of the people so i just kind of left it alone. i kind of kept it more local, people that are actually going to affect me here. so you votedd in the governor s race but didn t vote in the senator s race. is that what you re saying? correct. correct. so there you go, that kind of thinking or perhaps the ticket splitters, those who voted for kemp
pennsylvania because we can compare these numbers here to what boris told us in the governor s race. john fetterman at 80.1 to mehmet oz s 17.9%. obviously, the race is going to end closer than where it stands now, but shapiro is sitting at 84.5%. he is the democratic candidate for governor. that gives you a little bit of an idea how fetterman is underperforming shapiro which has been the concern for democrats all the way along the potential ticket splitters especially in the philadelphia collar counties would pick mehmet oz for senate and shapiro for governor. jake. thanks so much. really appreciate that. we have been telling you all night there are 82 house seats that are competitive. races that are competitive that we re keeping aeye on. it is in those 82 races that the balance of power in the house of representatives will be won or lost. an update right now, right now of the 23 competitive seats that are too early to call, the voting has ended. too early to call. democrats are le
competitive opponent and she went out. does that bore out for the rest of the country? what is really happening there? i think lots of conversations, things we won t know right now today. does it seem as though we ve entered in a time in our country s history where all of the expectations, polls, experts and analysis ends up being wrong? yeah. it s already is the pattern this now? it seems like it, jose. the end of the day, we have all of these polling, everyone talked about it, immigration, crime, abortion, and all the i factored. but i think what people didn t expect was what these ticket-splitters did all over the country. punishing republicans who lied about the election and who embraced donald trump s lie about 2020. i think steve kornacki keeps digging into these numbers,
how about shapiro that could pull fetterman through if there aren t too many ticket splitters. there will be ticket splitters in the suburbs. and josh shapiro has shown a textbook example of how you do confront an election denier. and katie hobbs has shown what not to do, shying away from con fronting kari lake. look, early on election night, i think we ll get some important tea leaves in virginia, where we have two highly competitive house races in new hampshire, in the first congressional district, and in indiana s first district. what i m going to be paying attention to early on, on election night, is whether republicans are headed for a true majority or just a marjorie. i was talking to kevin mccarthy. he wants more than 25 seats. anything less than 15 and he will have a hard time