vaccination rates. a new report out of israel suggests one of the vaccines may not be as protective against it. we re on top of those headlines. first, elsa bearing down on fort myers, florida. we are there. derek, how dangerous is this storm? reporter: i think people taking this for granted, because it s early in the season. maybe just getting caught off guard. that makes it dangerous. not only the threats of tornado and water spouts but the storm surge potential. the geography of the florida peninsula and this long duration event. the storm is basically going to be moving parallel to the coastline for the next 12 to 18 hours. so that will maximize the potential threats and impacts for that location. you know we ve got a strengthening storm out there. i ve been analyzing a lot of the radar and satellite imagery, the water temperatures are very warm, like bath water in the gulf of mexico. and it is just providing that fuel necessary for the storm to develop.
it could threaten the carolinas later on this week. the latest on dorian s track. so, it s after midnight here in the east coast. give us a sense of where it s going and what people can expect in the morning. this is slow progression. of course we see changes here in the past 24 hours. it is moving to the north-northwest. around 7 miles per hour. essentially twice the speed of walking pace. of course the last couple days it wasn t moving at all. beyond that walking pace. it is the fastest progression of the storm in about four days. that aspect of the storm is better news. the storm lined up 100 miles away from the coast region of florida. going to begin to see the heavy rainfall begin to move towards the coast also tropical storm force winds and hurricane force winds just offshore. any sort of movement to the west or left you ll have significant impact directly on the coastal communities and we know storm
toward charleston, we think sometime into the early morning hours there was thursday. notice the hurricane-force winds really begin to interact with the land there as we approach myrtle beach. we think landfall is around wilmington or cape hatteras region before the storm pushes away. we ve been tracking the system for upwards of 11 days now. really going to have significant impacts across a large reaching area. the storm surge potential up to four to seven feet across portions of the carolinas. charleston harbor expecting a ten-foot river crest, only second to hurricane hugo in 1989. hugo was a category four. this storm looks to be a category two on approach. at this point, all models want to push it just away from the coast of south carolina. north carolina doesn t look as lucky here as we approach this and the model confidence increases a little when it comes to landfall potential. again thursday, somewhere around the eastern coast of north carolina. guys? thank you so much.
hours. we expect the north-mostly track at least the next 24 hours. the storm tries to pull away from the carolinas. once you get to the borders of north and south carolina, that s when we think landfall is going to be a possibility, sometime as early as tomorrow night, but as late potentially as tomorrow afternoon across portions of wilmington, maybe into the hatteras region. the models have wanted to shift the track a little farther toward the east, but it looks almost certain that portions of the carolinas will begin to deal with this more directly. storm surge potential is among the highest there right across the carolinas. as much as four to seven feet going in towards tomorrow night and thursday morning in that region, robyn. thanks so much, pedram. appreciate that. cnn s patrick oppmann and his crew have been riding out the storm in freeport, bahamas. s that one of the areas hardest hit by dorian.
region right here from myrtle beach toward wilmington and potentially on into hatteras for landfall there before the storm system hopefully by day number 12 finally exits stage right. of course, storm surge potential going to be significant here. four to seven feet along the carolinas. if you re in charleston, charleston harbor expecting a ten-foot crest across their rivers, across that region. the second highest since hurricane hugo made a 12-foot crest across the region in 1989. hugo was a category four, of course. it s important to note the conyers at this point do not make categories at this point do not make a difference. the energy is going to be pushed on toward close to the carolinas likely. it s called the low country for a reason. all there at sea level. thank you for that. we ll talk to you in a few minutes. more than 7,100 customers without power. the majority in brevard and indian river counties. for more on the current conditions in florida, let s go to jensen beach