Several weeks ago we took a look at demand for U.S. soybeans and came to the conclusion the first order of business in slowing consumption might come from domestic soybean meal use, via higher soybean meal prices – in other words, rationing.
With the USDA Outlook Forum projecting a record tight stocks-to-use ratio in its first go-around for the 2021/22 crop year of 3.2% or just 145 million bushels of ending inventory, now might be a good time to revisit where the market stands.
Record export pace
First, soybean exports continue on a record fast pace. USDA did acknowledge this in the February WASDE by upping its export forecast by 20 million bushels and reducing carry-out a corresponding amount to 120 million bu.
started. beijing has been buying up american soybeans again. some of the largest purchases in more than a year. soybean sales are often seen as a barometer of the health of the u.s. china trading relationship. storing the numbers on the federal budget deficit from the congressional budget office. the cbo projecting the deficit for 2019 to hit $984 billion, up 26% from last year. experts say the main drivers of the automatic spending programs, medicare, medicaid, and social security. protesters mark one year since justice brett kavanaugh s confirmation to the supreme court by demanding his impeachment. [inaudible] shannon: what is really going on? coauthor of the best selling justice on trial about the camera confirmation battle, carrie severino joins us live next. ti man 1: .caused liver damage. vo: epclusa treats all main types of chronic hep c.
depending on how things go next week. certainly, i think if there is a breakthrough, if there is any sign that we are reaching some kind of agreement with the chinese i think the markets will really rally on that. we ve seen that time and again when it came to agreements with canada and mexico and rewriting north american free-trade agreement. that was a big sign of relief for investors. if we get that with china then we could have a relief. i just unexpected because, they are such deep divisions on a wide range of issues. china is a big issue and we have an example of how the china tariffs are impacting the country and soybean farmers. if you take a look at the graphic, soybean sales to china have dropped 94 percent over the past year. total exports to china down 16.1 million tons from last year.
grew at its fastest pace in almost four years. gdp at 4%. the president said yesterday we will be happy with anything that has a four in front of it. this has a four in front of it, but it s not it s a great number. o it s been accomplished before. the last three presidents have had a 5% reading in a good quarter. will it be a whole year of growth, that remains to be seen. 4.1%, bouncing back from a weak 2% in the first quarter. 9.3% exports gain, that s a really remarkable gain. and as our colleague calls it, not a sugar rush but a soybean rush. you had all these soybean sales ahead of expected retaliation from china. all these orders front loaded.
somethings got to be done. elizabeth: well that s what i m thinking that yeah something needs to be donald i think everyone agrees on that but how it s done is sort of where maybe perhaps people are disagreeing and even folks on the right side , i mean we heard from senator toomey and i wouldn t say that he s supportive in any way. no, no, he s not, and frankly, as a conservative i m not nutty about tariffs and not cheerleading them. it s a real catch 22. i m from an agricultural community myself and i have, my family sells soybeans regularly. soybean sales are huge component of the ag community in this country. to see those take a hit would be pretty devastating to a lot of farm families particularly in the middle of the country who are really worried about this. right now, i m hoping it s carrot and stick, so as i said, in the manufacturing and ag, we re really at two desperate interests that both need some help. elizabeth: both are being very