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Several weeks ago we took a look at demand for U.S. soybeans and came to the conclusion the first order of business in slowing consumption might come from domestic soybean meal use, via higher soybean meal prices – in other words, rationing.
With the USDA Outlook Forum projecting a record tight stocks-to-use ratio in its first go-around for the 2021/22 crop year of 3.2% or just 145 million bushels of ending inventory, now might be a good time to revisit where the market stands.
Record export pace
First, soybean exports continue on a record fast pace. USDA did acknowledge this in the February WASDE by upping its export forecast by 20 million bushels and reducing carry-out a corresponding amount to 120 million bu.