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The Bureau of Meteorology has today declared the arrival of El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a climate driver double-up that significantly increases the likelihood of unusually warm and dry weather across large areas of Australia in the second half of 2023. The Bureau made the El Niño and positive IOD declarations in its latest climate driver update, which was published on Tuesday afternoon. This announcement brings the Bureau into line with the World Meteorological Organization, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the Japan Meteorological Agency, who all declared El Niño back in June and July. The Bureau’s hesitation to declare El Niño in recent weeks has been due to the atmosphere above the tropical Pacific Ocean being reluctant to shift into an El Niño-like pattern, despite the underlying ocean being in a clear El Niño state. However, the atmosphere has started responding to the underlying ocean, and the Bureau’s crit

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