It isn’t as if building or lending products, or ways of doing business, were handed down by Trappist monks. Change is always afoot, for better or worse. What is old is new again. Teachers are moving to oral exams to counteract AI and ChatGPT, similar to ancient Greek and Roman times. In the West and Southwest, adequate water rights and supplies have always been contentious but have resurfaced (get it?) with news that may impact other cities and towns: Arizona began limiting approvals for new developments within the Phoenix area. It’s hard to build large affordable housing developments or swaths of housing in general if there is no water. Or road or sewage capacity. For fans of tiny homes, what is old is new again, and the Sears catalog kit houses (sold between 1908 and 1942) of old are back at Home Depot: Here’s 837 square feet for $43,000, 540 square feet for $44,000, and 444 square feet for $32k. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is
Sales, DPA, QC, Appraisal, Servicing Products; Freddie and Fannie News
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Let me save you a web search tomorrow: 1-800-butterball. A web search turned up a misconception: It appears that robber Willie Horton, when he was asked why he robbed banks, never said, "That's where the money is." But banks are where the money is, and it is certainly catchy. You don’t think someone is making money off your money sitting in that bank? Another web search shows that the 1-year CD national average is 0.43 percent. The current 1-year risk-free Treasury bill is yielding 4.75 percent. How can you get around that spread where the bank earns 4.75 percent for a year but pays you less than .5 percent? Tip of the day: Go to https://www.treasurydirect.gov/ and see the yields of what you can buy directly from the government and the minimums required. I don’t recall anyone predicting 1-year rates would be near or at 5 percent by year end (or per loan costs would be over $11,000 per loan). Still, there’s a lot of planning going on for 20
With the Fed set to end its MBS purchases tomorrow, removing free money from the MBS market, where do you think home affordability will go from here? Mortgage rates are already at their highest levels since 2008 and in theory, a large buyer exiting the space should push MBS prices down and thus mortgage rates up. As one California mortgage executive wrote to me, “Home prices ran up 20 to 30 percent for two years, as Fed Chair Powell could not figure how to get his foot off the accelerator. There are good borrowers and good LTVs out there, but most have been priced out of the market with home values rising 20 percent per year. Take the free money away, and none of this is sustainable.” There is debate about if the Fed’s actions have created some sort of housing bubble. It remains to be seen whether home prices work their way lower, we see no price increases for a couple of years, or the pace of appreciation merely moderates. Helping affordability, more lenders are r
Tony H. writes, “I just switched my 30-year home mortgage to ‘student loan.’ Follow me for more financial advice.” I have been fielding questions about the impact of student loan forgiveness on credit (probably won’t impact credit scores) but also whether the forgiven debt is taxable (not at the Federal level, but Forbes thinks it may be at the state level in some places). While the government is intervening, wouldn’t it be nice if someone put a cap on college cost escalation? The government doesn’t directly determine compensation or profit margins, but both are huge issues for lenders. (“Lenders are Eying Compensation and Ops Trends” is the current STRATMOR blog.) The government doesn’t directly determine the rate of inflation either, but the Federal Reserve can address it. During his Jackson Hole speech, Powell said that the Fed will continue raising interest rates and hold them at a higher level until it is confid
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