who doesn t really like joe biden, doesn t really like the democrats, but also doesn t like donald trump, that s a kind of voter that georgia democrats were able to get four votes for joe biden in 2020 and might say, hey, can t is perfectly acceptable. but walker is a bridge too far. that s what we have been seeing, that disconnect. the other challenge though, warnock has, is he has to finish ahead of walker, obviously, but georgia is a runoff state. if he doesn t get to 50% plus one, there s a libertarian in the race. we ve seen this in georgia many times, he is poised to get two or 3% of the vote. this could be forced to a runoff. you could see the same situation as you had in 2020, where senate control comes down to a georgia runoff. and, then you look at the dynamics. walker, warnock, in a runoff, you start to wonder if any of the personal stuff matters at at all, or are they purely voting on party. because the states would be absolutely clear in that case. you re voting for se
in the senate race? that s what we re seeing in the polling. it s not too hard to imagine who that voter is, you have to remember earlier this year, brian kemp went to war with donald trump and brad raffensperger, secretary of state, went to war with trump. and they won worth primaries against trump-backed opponents. here s georgia who doesn t like democrats or biden but also doesn t like donald trump. that s the kind of voter that they were able to get to vote for biden in 2020. they re saying they stood up to trump but walker is too far. that s where we re seeing the disconnect. the other thing with warnock, he has to finish ahead of walker, obviously, but georgia is a runoff state. if he doesn t get there, there s a libertarian in the race, we ve seen this many times poised to get 2%, 3% of the vote, you could be in that same snare joe in 2020 that senate control comes down to a georgia runoff.
rice, myrtle beach and take a closer look here, mace being challenged by katie airington. there is a third name appearing on the ballot. there had been a third candidate who has dropped out. who has endorsed airington but her name will remain on the ballot. if this were a razor thin margin between mace and airington, that could be important because south carolina is a runoff state. if you can t get to 50%, the top two advance to a runoff two weeks from now. and as vaughn tells you in his record, she does have support from big named trump allies in south carolina. nikki haley for instance has endorsed nancy mace. some other big names have as well. so we ll see how mace does in the first district against arrington. airington had been endorsed by 2018. mark sanders ran afoul of trump when he was president and trumpen zorsed airington and
flag for folks as we mentioned, this one earlier. a different part of the country, this is in mississippi. the third congressional district, and you have a republican incumbent here, congressman michael guest, he s in trouble, right now as you can, see he s chilling that more than 80% of the votes recorded right now. and here s the, deal mississippi is a runoff state. nobody gets 50%. the top two here would go to a runoff. but why is this republican incumbent in trouble with so many of the votes counted in this district? guest voted to establish that bipartisan january six commission. that s become an issue in this campaign. and you could, see right, now he s trailing a challenger who tried to get to his right on that and other issues. it could very well end up that neither gets 50. they go to a runoff. the runoff would be held on june 28th. and you ve got a republican incumbent who is in some serious jeopardy in the third district in mississippi. you also, for that matter, for differe
i was trying to take you to this, one more outstanding piece of business in mississippi, the third congressional district, republican member of congress michael guest running in second place here. we re still waiting on final votes to come in, but he s running in second place. mississippi is a runoff state. so even if he finishes in second and his opponent cassidy doesn t break 50, it would trigger a runoff, but a runoff is a dangerous place for any incumbent to be. why is michael guest in trouble? he is a republican, the only republican from mississippi, who voted for the creation of a bipartisan january 6th commission. that s become an issue in this campaign. again, right now, the most likely outcome here is that guest and cassidy, who made an issue out of that end up in a runoff on june 28th and settle things. there is one other republican incumbent who is in grave danger here, palazzo will finish first but with only 31% of the vote.