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中金固收:传统债券分析框架真的有失灵么?
广义流动性收紧,狭义流动性有必要维持宽松 如果基本面对债券收益率的回落是解释的通的话,那么还需要有货币政策的配合才能使得逻辑更加顺畅。央行7月份的降准,表面上是超市场预期,但实际上是符合经济规律和过去货币政策操作逻辑的。这个规律和逻辑就是:如果广义流动性收紧,那么狭义流动性就可以保持平稳甚至可以适度放松。2018年也出现过这种广义紧,狭义松的情况。或者用另外术语来描述,就是紧信用,宽货币。如果我们把货币政策的调控分为量和价两个维度来理解的话,那么量就是指影响M2和社融等广义流动性的调控工具,而价就是指影响利率和汇率等价格的调控工具。过去,我们把实际社融增速(剔除通胀后的社融增速)、实际债券利率(剔除通胀后的平均债券利率)、实际汇率(通胀调整后的汇率)三个代表�
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