this is where i think it gets particularly tricky and key. the question of enthusiasm. which side is more enthusiastic? the story for so much of 2018 and 2017 was in inbalance. we saw it in the polls in august. democrats an 11-point enthusiasm edge. people saying they were interested in voting this november. now in our new poll, that 11 point edge see what happened. democrat the their enthusiasm has gone up but republicans it s going up by a larger share there. now democrats with only a 4 point edge. down from 11 when it comes to enthusiasm. this is interesting. take a look at the last three midterm elections that produced wave results. 2014 for the republicans. 2010 for the republicans. twix for the democrats. what do they have in common? at this point, in our poll, on the enthusiasm question there was a double digit advantage in all three of those races for the party that ended up having the wave election.
them a fighting chance at keeping the house. this is where i think it gets particularly tricky and key. the question of enthusiasm. which side is more enthusiastic? the story for so much of 2018 and 2017 was in inbalance. we saw it in the polls in august. democrats an 11-point enthusiasm edge. people saying they were interested in voting this november. now in our new poll, that 11 point edge see what happened. democrat the their enthusiasm has gone up but republicans it s going up by a larger share there. now democrats with only a 4 point edge. down from 11 when it comes to enthusiasm. this is interesting. take a look at the last three midterm elections that produced wave results. 2014 for the republicans. 2010 for the republicans. twix for the democrats. what do they have in common? at this point, in our poll, on the enthusiasm question there was a double digit advantage in all three of those races for the
when everybody says there s no a state with two nationally collusion. i ll do what s necessary. watched midterm elections coming what do you make of that? up, including one of the it has so many millions of traps hardball ten senate races. in that. campaigning has been temporarily i ll do wlahatever my lawyers s put on pause as the state to avoid a subpoena, even to recovers from look at the devastation left by hurricane honor subpoena now that i have michael. the hardball senate race five people to the supreme there, bill nelson is locked in court. a tight race with outgoing may not have to do anything. that s what the whole fight governor rick scott. was about, chris. it was avoiding consequences real clear politics average that could be down the road for shows nelson with a 2.5 point him at the end of the investigation. you mean having a packed edge. close. probably 3 if you average it supreme court. justice kavanaugh there as a back stop. out. we are watching the gove
races, nevada and texas. the states represent democrats best shot, nevada and its dream shot texas. first if democrats have any hope of cutting into the republican senate majority of 51/49 this fall they need to defeat senator dean heller in nevada a state hillary won by two points. helder, an incumbent faces jackie rosen, who raised over $7 million in the last three months. there she is. in a brand new nbc poll, heller has a lead over rosen. however, the most recent polls shows rosen with a two point edge. meanwhile in texas, beta
and bad polling have seen numbers improved in the last few weeks. i think a lot of decisions were made in 2017. you may see more members decided to stick around. now let s look at that. there s a pole, it says if you want to vote for a generic candidate look at the difference. now, it is pretty close. only two points apart, 47 - 45. but too much ago, 15 points apart. it is kind of close but i would people still expecting democratic wave. is a huge difference. that suggests they are likely to hold the house. democrats are hoping to get double digit edge on the generic ballot. we see a poll like this survey showing democrats with only two point edge, is worrying about democrats. the real is the economy is improving. republicans are scoring points because of a tax bill they passed. that is improving chances and improving republicans chances to hold the house to request