so obama is up by 2. it causes people to say that s probably not going to be right. your thoughts on that analysis. the partisan makeup of a poll is the most important determinate. our own numbers compared to four years ago, the democrats had a 7-point advantage. d-plus 7. we are showing d-plus 2 today. that means republicans have a 5-point pickup from four years ago. i think if a state poll is showing similar partisan breakdowns from four years ago it s probably tilting in the president s direction. but we don t know how much of the republican enthusiasm will translate into more voters at the polls. megyn: is that wait comes down to? is it just about turnout because the race is so close going into election day? absolutely. this race hasn t changed much.
the suffolk people pulled out of those states saying their internals show there is no way that the president can win those states. they re not even going to poll again. you say? look, i think those states all end in the romney column, but i think we ve got a long way to go in the next 27 days. take a look before and after the debate. in florida, before the debate, there were polls, three polls in florida. obama was leading by one, one and three. since the debate, there have been two polls, romney has been leading by three and two. that makes a swing from plus two for obama to plus 2 mav for romney. virginia, same thing. obama up by 2 in two different polls before the debate. after the debate, obama up by 3 in one poll, but romney up by one and three in another poll. north carolina, that state has been trending into the romney camp for months, even real clear politic high school before the debate, romney lead of eight tenths of a percent. there has been one poll in north carolina afte
the suffolk people pulled out of those states saying their internals show there is no way that the president can win those states. they re not even going to poll again. you say? look, i think those states all end in the romney column, but i think we ve got a long way to go in the next 27 days. take a look before and after the debate. in florida, before the debate, there were polls, three polls in florida. obama was leading by one, one and three. since the debate, there have been two polls, romney has been leading by three and two. that makes a swing from plus two for obama to plus 2 mav for romney. virginia, same thing. obama up by 2 in two different polls before the debate. after the debate, obama up by 3 in one poll, but romney up by one and three in another poll. north carolina, that state has been trending into the romney camp for months, even real clear politic high school before the debate, romney lead of eight tenths of a percent. there has been one poll in north carolina afte
the suffolk people pulled out of those states saying their internals show there is no way that the president can win those states. they re not even going to poll again. you say? look, i think those states all end in the romney column, but i think we ve got a long way to go in the next 27 days. take a look before and after the debate. in florida, before the debate, there were polls, three polls in florida. obama was leading by one, one and three. since the debate, there have been two polls, romney has been leading by three and two. that makes a swing from plus two for obama to plus 2 mav for romney. virginia, same thing. obama up by 2 in two different polls before the debate. after the debate, obama up by 3 in one poll, but romney up by one and three in another poll. north carolina, that state has been trending into the romney camp for months, even real clear politic high school before the debate, romney lead of eight tenths of a percent. there has been one poll in north carolina afte
between republicans and democrats. in this particular poll mitt romney holds a 14 point advantage with republicans over president obama with middle class voters. and they also see a lot of trouble about where the economy is going. it depends on which poll you re looking at how you look about governor romney s chances going forward. jon: yeah, and on that point, politico, the political website and magazine also has a poll out of middle class voters, and it s really interesting, if you look at the individuals, and i think the individual issues and i think we can put them on the screen, things like the economy, jobs, spending, taxes, in each of those categories governor romney wins with middle class voters with numbers that are outside the margin of error. the only one that is close is medicare, plus 2% for governor romney. and yet despite winning on all those issues when you look at