what do you think of all the attention north carolina has been? i can t believe it. it s just everywhere, and it s amazing. reporter: how are you feeling about the election now? i am pumped up and ready to vote. reporter: as you know the candidates are locked in a dead heat, and 44% and 44%, and we will have our eye on this all day, guys. all right, morgan radford, thank you so much. joining us now, tom bevin. how real clear is it? do you have clarity? as you have been talking about, north carolina and florida and new hampshire is a tossup. what is interesting, i went back and looked at 2012 and the national polls were tighter, and we had three polls tied, and three had obama head and three had romney up.
in from outside gallup, the university of michigan, texas, maryland. we ve really taken the hood off to look at what we did last fall to try to answer your question. four things, likely voter estimation. we had obama up by three points among registered voters, which is about where he was at the end. won by about 3.85%. moved it down to a one-point romney lead, and that was more than the average for all other models of a similar fashion out there and we think we overcorrected. so the model itself is something that we really think needs reevaluating. this is an historic way we ve calculated for decades, but we re going to use new jersey and we re going to use virginia and those races working with the university of michigan to really try to figure out how in today s changing environment you do the best job of estimating. so, frank, let me ask you this, what happened, there were times you guys put out a poll and you d have romney up by 9, 10, or 11. and you talked to the obama people and
in 2004 when they won, particularly by doing very, very well again in some of the smaller counties around the state and the ones well, countih a significant auto industry presence. right. i m curious, joe, in the last hours or days i should say that ad of the romney team saying jobs shipped to china, the president along the stump made a comment about revenge and some people including romney and ryan tried to say to people, this is about the love of country, not about revenge, but i couldn t help but to wnder about the people, the men and women in the a job as a result of the auto bailout and not revenge in a negative sense but in the sense of the president had my back, s simply did not and i m not going to vote for him. i think that was a big part of it. yeah. it was going with theeople who are on their side. editorially last week when we
ago. we are out of time. i wish i could talk to all of yoall day long. i appreciate your insight but i have to move on and hopefully have you more on. there s more to come. thank you all. thank you. just in the last hour, the man that they called the defacto leader of the republican party, he is reacting to latinos siding with the president. in order to get the hispanic or latino vote, does that mean open the borders and embrace the ilga history-making night for women in congress.6% despite the odds, you elected the first woman senator to the state of massachusetts. and we have new details on just how big the gender gapthe governor romney and join the conversation on twitter. find us. but first, here s a look at the front pages of newspapers across the country today.
you average them all together, that s pretty much where he is. two states you know very well is the state of ohio and the state of or the commonwealth of virginia. let s start with virginia. what do you see happening there? most polls have gov. romney up by two. it s pretty close but it s a must-win state for gov romney. gov. romney is going to carry virginia. as you know, he was there today. the crowds, the intensity there remarkable. we have a great ground game. most importantly, we have a great message that s regular naturing very much in virginia. especially northern virginia and hampton roads where the sequestration, the effect of these random arbitrary and deep defense cuts are going to have a very dramatic impact. then you look at the coal economy in the west, southwest of virginia, and people there very scrub set with president obama s policies w he will have a good night in virginia tomorrow. when you look at ohio and pennsylvania and virginia, energy, coal, fracking, al