think we can be as high as 56 seats on election night. and i think we have a greater and greater chance of keeping the house. it may be slim but i feel good about it. brian: look back to 2016 and see how the polls were very close but they were wrong. bloomberg had hillary plus 3. you had reuters had hillary plus 5. mcclatchy hillary plus 2. when it comes to popular vote they were right. electoral, the way you play this game they were wrong. the fundamental way that things have shifted in the last few years is that the data on voters has gotten much better. you know who has voted and who has voted early. what that percentage of people who haven t voteside and what their percentages of voting in one party or another. you can actually be much more precise than you have in the past than just looking at polls. hooking at the number of people voting early is so much higher. both parties. republican enthusiasm continues to get jacked up and bringing people out there to make sure that
are different than some of the national public polls, that look at turnout scores and turnout modelling. but that s based on past voter propensity. you talk these estimates into account and look at the different range of turnout scenarios to see what the range of outcomes will look like. but and then we have now early voting which in some states is starting to look democratic, and some states it s actually a little more republican. is that a signer where things end up? or is that just election day voters who are just voting early as opposed to election day. these are all questions we won t know the answer to yet. so that is oop why it s important to not just look at who is up plus 2 or what does the model say about this, but what are the issues that are driving voters? what are they thinking about? what calculations are they making? enthusiasm is one metric, but an enthusiastic voter s vote counts the same as someone who reluctantly goes the day before
and we can take them at their word. we can use other information. there is certainly internal polls and campaign polls that are different than some of the national public polls, that look at turnout scores and turnout modelling. but that s based on past voter propensity. you talk these estimates into account and look at the different range of turnout scenarios to see what the range of outcomes will look like. but and then we have now early voting which in some states is starting to look democratic, and some states it s actually a little more republican. is that a signer where things end up? or is that just election day voters who are just voting early as opposed to election day. these are all questions we won t know the answer to yet. so that is oop why it s important to not just look at who is up plus 2 or what does the model say about this, but what are the issues that are driving voters? what are they thinking about? what calculations are they making? enthusiasm is one metric, but
you think him responding to you by moving to the right has actually made him more competitive now? if president trump is more well liked in nevada from what you ve seen in the polls and most of the other states, all the other states beside the real red states. he lost the state by 2%. romney lost by 7, mccain 12. he actually overperformed in this state. he has a plus 2 approval rating in my district. furthermore, if you don t support president trump s poll, is you re not going to get the trump supporters to vote for you. i would say the number one issue generically in every house race in the country, atlace if y at least if you just look across america, it s health care. how do you do it? you do it with high risk pools. they had some before the affordable care act took place. the federal government needs to
in the polls. the question which would be more helpful to republicans, to win or lose in the senate? i begin to think winning is the best thing. had they lost that might have disspirited the base. you see in the fight over kavanaugh according to the polls, a real rise in enthusiasm. a big gap in intensity between democrats who seem very interested in the mid-terms and republicans that did not seem so energized. a lot of feeling among the republican conservative base that kavanaugh has not been dealt with fairly. in a lot of polls when you used to see a gap of 10 or 12 points is now plus 2 for the democrats. shepard: we have a political generation between now and the election. that is obvious. with that said, the analysts have said this vote, because of suburban educated white women and the energizing of them, that the house is more solid for