Listing out various scenarios, the agency said that to become a $5 trillion economy by FY30 with per capita income of $ 3,467, the economy would require a real GDP growth rate of 6.25%, GDP deflator growth 3.5% and INR/USD depreciation 3.25%. But to transform to a $5 trillion economy by FY2029 with capita income of $ 3,530, real GDP growth per annum would have to be faster at 8%.
India s per capita GDP growth to $5,000 will drive growth across sectors. Sunrise sectors like renewables and nuclear will grow rapidly. EVs, December quarter earnings, and PSU/PSE stocks are expected to generate wealth. Risk factors include geopolitical tensions and recession. Good buy-on-dips opportunities in the energy sector and sectors like banks, auto, cement, power, and pharma.
Unless India can achieve double-digit growth for a decade or more, GDP per capita will remain low, not only relative to those of larger economies but to those of middle-income countries as well.
The 15th National Assembly’s 4th session approved a Resolution on the socio-economic development plan in 2023, with GDP targeted at 6.5% and per capita GDP at 4,400 USD.