But first, heres my take. Something important has happened over the course of this crisis. Estimates of expected deaths have gone down by a lot. On march 31st, the white house estimated that even with social distancing policies in place, between 100,000 and 240,000 americans would die of covid19. Dr. Deborah birx, the white houses Coronavirus Response coordinator said that that was, quote, our real number. Dr. Anthony fauci, the nations top Infectious Disease expert, recently indicated he now believes it will be more like 60,000. The university of washington model, which has been cited by the white house, predicted on march 26th that assuming social distancing policies that stay in place until june 1st, u. S. Deaths by august would most likely be around 81,000. By april 10th, they had made many revisions to get to their current number, 61,500. Predictions for hospitalization rates have also proven to be way too high. On march 30th, the university of washington projected that california